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ytthong1951
Member |
07-Jun-2019 14:51
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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I' m still betting that the US-China spat will have a deal sooner or later. Both sides are eager to have one. The market is also predicting this going by the mini-rally. I' m also vested in Oue for I believe it isn' t that bad with 3.6 catalysts in the making. I' ve already mentioned 3 catalysts,leaving out the 0.6. If Oue is that bad, why is it going to redeem its 3% $150m exchangeable bond lately. Perhaps readers forget that BT today mentioned that GLP sold its ppties last yr for double its valuation. Need I to mention that Oue' s latest valuation is $4.43. Vested, wyeo. |
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ytthong1951
Member |
22-May-2019 10:23
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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If they sell Oue below 1.50, I ' ll buy. If you sell it below 1.40, I ' ll buy more. Why? Properties are not like most other businessess whose earnings keep going down when the environments deteriorate. Properties do not, unless you ' ve a very badly managed ppty co. that could not even pay their interests. They bounce back very quickly especially those that are over-sold. At 1.50, the discount to its nav of $4.43 is about 67%. Why not you sell me your HDB flat to me at this discount ?? wyeo. |
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Know-Your-Stuff
Senior |
15-May-2019 18:06
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Holding for long term. Have a lot of potential to go back to $2 ++ to $3.
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ytthong1951
Member |
15-May-2019 15:11
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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I have not sold mine yet. I expect good, special dividend in the 2q where it normally pays only 1ct. This could be 8, 10ct or more as it had made 15cts from selling Marina Mandarin.I believe this because its parent owns 68% of Oue & is raising US$1b. Note that its nav has gone up to $4.43 largely bec. of its fv gain due to M.Mandarin.Meanwhile the US $ is going up when its US ppty is on sale still & I ' ve factored in a 30% discount of about $1.33b for this stock wh. values it at $3.10. Wyeo |
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jm2212
Master |
15-May-2019 09:29
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Drop so much after xd. ( | ||
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ytthong1951
Member |
03-May-2019 10:45
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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I' m wondering why their US ppty is not making any headway when the US economy is growing at 3.2%. The most important trade dispute threatening global growth is likely to be wrapped up next week or thereabout. Interest rate is low with no real inflatoin threatening a rise. Consumers' confidence recovers in the US with Republican & Democrat agreeing on a US$2 trillion infrastruc. plan. The coming weeks look good for Oue. The only snag is its qly report, without any ppty sale it is usually nothing to crow about as is the case usually with other ppty stocks for their yields are low. wyeo. |
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Secret_Squirrel
Elite |
02-May-2019 19:56
Yells: "Stay curious but skeptical" |
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Correction is time to accumulate
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ytthong1951
Member |
23-Apr-2019 09:31
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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Oue sold its stake in Nuvest Capital P.L. for US$1m. Book Value: $1.37m. The amount involved is inconsequential but Deutsch analyst' s story that it is divesting to be cash positive is likely true. The sale of the US ppty as announced in CNA shdn' t take too long to materialise as we read in BT that construction there is buzzing partly bec. the young want to live where they work & they' re preparing for the coming Summer Olympics. Downt. Gallery & Oakwood Premier is worth $610m as at Dec.' 18. Ocbc expects this to be divested as it has obtained its serviced residence' s licence. wyeo. |
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ytthong1951
Member |
18-Apr-2019 09:17
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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Strange, Oue' s sh. price is correcting downwards when it is making a profit of about $135m,15cts/sh. with no material impact to its nav. of ar. $4.35. I believe it ' ll give a special dividend from this sale as it normally does, for its June q. as it normally does when it sells or recycles its ppty. All the more when its parent,Lippo is raising US$1b to restructure L.Karawaci. Then, it is selling its US ppty wh is worth US$650m in its audited' 18 report. At US$1 to $1.35, this is worth $877m versus its purch. price of $459m. Puzzled! wyeo. |
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ytthong1951
Member |
15-Apr-2019 09:15
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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Oue is selling 30% of Marina Mandarin to UIC at $390m. The eps is an increase of 15c.for ' 19. The profit should be about $135m. More, it does not ' ve a material impact on its nta/sh. Its latest audited for ' 18 released a few days ago shows its nav still ar. $4.35/sh. wyeo. |
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ytthong1951
Member |
12-Apr-2019 08:52
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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sghood, In shares, we go to the heart of the matter. You cannot, like Starship go for the peripheral like transaction fees, historical prices,small qly profits when the bigh picture as in Oue is the big profit when it sells its ppty --- 902m shs x 12c = $108m. Even this ' ll soon be historical. The big picture is : any more big ppty to sell/recycle -- the future, the heart of the matter, not the ...... Wyeo. |
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ytthong1951
Member |
11-Apr-2019 16:25
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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Stock is about the future. In reits, you ' ve to ask if the spread is worth it. If it is .5 or 1% above ssb, then might as well put in ssb. Ascott' s spread is about 4% or more. If you find this attractive enough, the next question is: Is it sustainable? Stocks like Ascott can because if you follow it closely, you discover that they ' ve a pipeline of yield- accretive ppties to make up if this falls short. They can also sell their mature ppties, usually at profits of tens of millions or even more to maintain the spread for a yr or more. They are also able to make millions from their forex. The only thing they can' t, I think is when there' s a world recession for their ppties' re spread all over in gateway cities. ' Kay Poh' wyeo. |
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sghood
Member |
11-Apr-2019 15:31
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My humble opinion to share. Pure play is better. Where is merit of consolidation? Is there cost saving from combining? These are two different asset classes. Not complementary assets where you derive saving from pooling resources. Each asset has unique challenges, and business model. Is there economic pricing power from combining these different assets? I do not see improve trading liquidity or increased valuation from the merger. It is merger of two stale asset classes with no new renewed energy. Having said that I will support if OUEH is merged with another hotel sg reit. Here there is cost saving from managing similar assets, higher pricing power and dominant size. I do not like being forced into owning OUEC, definitely not at mere 4c sweetener. Again, my humble opinion which may or may not be shared by more seasoned investors. Regards, sghood |
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ytthong1951
Member |
11-Apr-2019 09:44
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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A member below asks who will benefit from the merger. My answer is the mother stock will never be a loser. It is a stupid mother if it is so, being the initiator. But, I want to add here that there is no point in buying the mother property stock if there are no recycling or selling for the yields from such stocks are not high. Look at blue chip ppty stock like CDL, the yield is onlly slightly more than 2% or less. The big profits of these cos. come from recycling or selling their ppties. Wyeo. |
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ytthong1951
Member |
11-Apr-2019 09:07
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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Starship(8apr' 19) Oue, included is for gamblers, speculators .... . This is so if the safety margin of $1.18b & the assets, prime ppties & land from gateway cities are lies or not accurate enough -- then retail investor like me who depends on such info. will be in big trouble & ' ve to call it a day. Then SGX or MAS which provide such info. can' t be trusted. If this is so, how can we be a successful financial hub today where the rich & wealthy park their money? Think & check the facts, pse. Wyeo. |
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ytthong1951
Member |
10-Apr-2019 08:54
Yells: "It 'll be about 2mths 23 days befor Oue reports its 4q'18. I" |
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Starship' s one pocket in & one pocket out .... sounds like Oue is a party to cheating & MAS is sleeping. Just in case, we write off $1.18billions & Oue is still worth $3, Deutsch Bank' s TP. We buy a stock on cheap sale, not on historical price as Starship implies. Wyeo |
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Starship
Supreme |
09-Apr-2019 09:31
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Too many and too frequent left pocket to right pocket to left pocket by the OUE Lippo Karawaci group. With each transaction, lots of money is wasted on transaction fees, etc. Not to mention what' s the amount that CS reap from each transaction. Look at the historical performance of these stocks and it' s clear retail investors are not benefiting. Instead, with it' s frequent " startling" news and developments, retail investors' journey is best described as 步 步 惊 心 . Why ' bigger is better' could apply to the proposed OUE merger 09/04/19, 07:57 am SINGAPORE (April 9): Enlarged scale was among the main reasons for the proposed merger of OUE Commercial REIT (OUE C-REIT) and OUE Hospitality Trust (OUE HT), The Edge Singapore understands from attending an April 8 media briefing with the respective REITs managers and their investment bankers. A portfolio valued at $6.8 billion and free float of $1.08 billion would make the enlarged REIT more visible to institutional investors. Both OUE C-REIT and OUE HT currently have limited liquidity. As such, the higher market cap could potentially result in higher trading liquidity and potential index inclusion, say their managers in a joint announcement issued on Monday. There is still a way to go before the merged REIT qualifies for the widely-followed EPRA NAREIT Developed Market Index like Frasers Logistics Trust (FLT) did last month. For one thing, the REIT will require a free float of US$1.26 billion to meet one of the conditions to gain entry into the index. It will also have to derive at least 75% of earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from developed markets, like how Ascott Residence Trust (ART) has with its shift towards developed markets. Another year of its current EBITDA composition would qualify ART for the EPRA NAREIT DM index, considering how free float market cap presently stands at about US$1.26 billion, and that 75% of its EBITDA in FY2018 was from developed markets. Elsewhere, Manulife US REIT&rsquo s free float is around US$1 billion and of course it qualifies in terms of EBITDA composition. Hongkong Land Holdings is the largest Singapore-listed component in the index at 0.54% of the index followed by CapitaLand Limited at 0.43%. The largest REITs in the index are Ascendas REIT (0.34%), CapitaLand Mall Trust(0.26%) and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (0.22%). Other than attracting institutional interest, Tan Shu Lin, CEO of OUE C-REIT&rsquo s manager, suggests that the enlarged REIT will be able to look at the acquisition of integrated developments such as OUE Downtown Gallery and the Oakwood Premier OUE Singapore. &ldquo We&rsquo re seeing the rise of such developments in the market and we can evaluate these as a whole. This will put us in a very good position to drive growth in the future,&rdquo comments Tan. Last year, OUE C-REIT acquired the office components of OUE Downtown. On the other hand, OUE has been trying to sell LA Bank Tower in Los Angeles and may not find it efficient to recycle the building into OUE C-REIT as the capital gains tax could be as high as 20% based on the US Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 2017. https://www.theedgesingapore.com/why-bigger-better-could-apply-proposed-oue-merger |
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paul1688
Veteran |
08-Apr-2019 14:16
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The idea behind merger is &ldquo size does matter&rdquo . In case for OUE-CT, they are trading at such a significant discount to NAV. Quoting an analyst .......... &ldquo On a first look, this looks like a reasonable deal as it gets tougher for OUE C-REIT to acquire assets trading deep below its book value &ndash this transaction could change that with bigger REIT, higher liquidity, bigger leverage&rdquo .
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Observers
Elite |
08-Apr-2019 13:11
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Reits really needs size for stable growth. I can still remember when Keppel Reit was much smaller, it kept on calling for rights issues to buy buildings until unit holders complain during one of the EGMs that the dividends received can' t even cover the rights subscription and the purpose of retailers buying reit was to have dividends to cover daily expenses, and that dilution was inevitable. With proper sizing, the reit can sieze opportunities without having to raise too much money from the equity markets, limiting dilution and cash calls. |
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Shifu8888
Supreme |
08-Apr-2019 13:03
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I think it is good news for HT shareholders. Short term, bad news for Com shareholders. Long term, winners for both. | ||
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