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EAGLE Hosp Reit US$ @$0.780 cents Post Reply Rate topic
raptor87 Member	04-Nov-2019 22:34        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, but it depends on the relative wealth remaining in the REIT and their spare wealth.  The perfect scenario is they sell all then buy back at lower price. But of course, they can' t sell 15% worth of stake and get away with a good execution price - average price will plummet. Selling a small amount to buy back at a lower price also entails risk that other bids enter and they end up buying back at same or higher price.   m2d4pc      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 22:28) Posted: if the sell down can force the price to go to a very attractive level then they come in to buy back   raptor87      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:34) Posted: Would major investors be foolish to dump it at force prices lower and hurt their own net worth? It sensible to wait and let prices consolidate higher then sell smaller lots along the way up, not panic sell on the way down, hitting more bids, scaring the market to withdraw bids with begets further bloodletting.. Those holding more than even 5% would be stupid to continue dumping as they can' t dump all at once without moving the market against themselves. But then.. some people are not rational. Ultimately prices need to find some sort of equillibrium. Unless this is a total fraud, there has to be a floor, and its nearing.
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m2d4pc Senior	04-Nov-2019 22:33        m2d4pc About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	if the SSH can continue to sell down for a long period, if stock price is depressed for a very long period that will force more Singaporeans to sell their stocks that allow the SSH to collect back at very low price thus to enjoy higher yield   raptor87      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:34) Posted: Would major investors be foolish to dump it at force prices lower and hurt their own net worth? It sensible to wait and let prices consolidate higher then sell smaller lots along the way up, not panic sell on the way down, hitting more bids, scaring the market to withdraw bids with begets further bloodletting.. Those holding more than even 5% would be stupid to continue dumping as they can' t dump all at once without moving the market against themselves. But then.. some people are not rational. Ultimately prices need to find some sort of equillibrium. Unless this is a total fraud, there has to be a floor, and its nearing.
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CheeryVGoh Supreme	04-Nov-2019 22:29        CheeryVGoh About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	QIAN JIANRONG' s on 31/10 was : Securities via off-market transaction (e.g. married deals) onegun      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 22:26) Posted: based on the filing on sgx, these are not married trade, but sell on market. I have read several such announcements uk1234      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 22:13) Posted: drama drama :) > QIAN JIANRONG let go of 12,800,000 shares for USD7,040,000 on 31/10.  From 7.53% to 6.06%. This is again a *married trade*, at exactly 0.55.  I do not consider this as a " sell down" by him.  All these married trades have under table arrangements.  He can " sell" another 8mil shares and then will become < 5%, no need to report any more.  Today  there is another married trade at 0.475 too I guess I will be the 1st to say I added some at 0.48 today.  I' m relaxed, in fact quite fun doing this trade.  Unless this is a total fraud, at this level, no harm accumulate some more.  This is a reit, not a business, it won' t die unless all the hotels are fake.  Earlier this year the reit obtained a 340m USD bank loan at Libor+170bps.  Looks very normal (in fact very good, BBB level borrowing rate).    Bank lending is not your average guesstimate, they got to do real balance sheet check. Btw from the fill order, I observed all are retails.  One single order 5 brokers invovled, all very local ones, not a single foreign investment bank name.  Looks lilke retail investors are panic selling.  (anyone else bought today see something similar ?) Actually I' m hoping this overshoot some more. P/B below 50% for a reit is getting very interesting.  my next buy level will be 0.42.  Hope it reaches tomorrow :) At this rate, 10% down a week, it will be free before the 1st distribution is even paid :D
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m2d4pc Senior	04-Nov-2019 22:28        m2d4pc About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	if the sell down can force the price to go to a very attractive level then they come in to buy back   raptor87      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:34) Posted: Would major investors be foolish to dump it at force prices lower and hurt their own net worth? It sensible to wait and let prices consolidate higher then sell smaller lots along the way up, not panic sell on the way down, hitting more bids, scaring the market to withdraw bids with begets further bloodletting.. Those holding more than even 5% would be stupid to continue dumping as they can' t dump all at once without moving the market against themselves. But then.. some people are not rational. Ultimately prices need to find some sort of equillibrium. Unless this is a total fraud, there has to be a floor, and its nearing.
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onegun Member	04-Nov-2019 22:26        onegun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	based on the filing on sgx, these are not married trade, but sell on market. I have read several such announcements uk1234      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 22:13) Posted: drama drama :) > QIAN JIANRONG let go of 12,800,000 shares for USD7,040,000 on 31/10.  From 7.53% to 6.06%. This is again a *married trade*, at exactly 0.55.  I do not consider this as a " sell down" by him.  All these married trades have under table arrangements.  He can " sell" another 8mil shares and then will become < 5%, no need to report any more.  Today  there is another married trade at 0.475 too I guess I will be the 1st to say I added some at 0.48 today.  I' m relaxed, in fact quite fun doing this trade.  Unless this is a total fraud, at this level, no harm accumulate some more.  This is a reit, not a business, it won' t die unless all the hotels are fake.  Earlier this year the reit obtained a 340m USD bank loan at Libor+170bps.  Looks very normal (in fact very good, BBB level borrowing rate).    Bank lending is not your average guesstimate, they got to do real balance sheet check. Btw from the fill order, I observed all are retails.  One single order 5 brokers invovled, all very local ones, not a single foreign investment bank name.  Looks lilke retail investors are panic selling.  (anyone else bought today see something similar ?) Actually I' m hoping this overshoot some more. P/B below 50% for a reit is getting very interesting.  my next buy level will be 0.42.  Hope it reaches tomorrow :) At this rate, 10% down a week, it will be free before the 1st distribution is even paid :D
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m2d4pc Senior	04-Nov-2019 22:25        m2d4pc About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	All exits together may not be a bad outcome for them, if they can buy back at lower price raptor87      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:55) Posted: Panic selling to pare down stake. But if they are smart, they should at least coordinate. All exit at same time result in worst outcomes as bids will disappear (nobody wants to catch a falling knife).   onegun      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:49) Posted: if we notice, these chinese SSH are selling their stock at same times, can' t believe there are not coordinated moves
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uk1234 Member	04-Nov-2019 22:13        uk1234 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	drama drama :) > QIAN JIANRONG let go of 12,800,000 shares for USD7,040,000 on 31/10.  From 7.53% to 6.06%. This is again a *married trade*, at exactly 0.55.  I do not consider this as a " sell down" by him.  All these married trades have under table arrangements.  He can " sell" another 8mil shares and then will become < 5%, no need to report any more.  Today  there is another married trade at 0.475 too I guess I will be the 1st to say I added some at 0.48 today.  I' m relaxed, in fact quite fun doing this trade.  Unless this is a total fraud, at this level, no harm accumulate some more.  This is a reit, not a business, it won' t die unless all the hotels are fake.  Earlier this year the reit obtained a 340m USD bank loan at Libor+170bps.  Looks very normal (in fact very good, BBB level borrowing rate).    Bank lending is not your average guesstimate, they got to do real balance sheet check. Btw from the fill order, I observed all are retails.  One single order 5 brokers invovled, all very local ones, not a single foreign investment bank name.  Looks lilke retail investors are panic selling.  (anyone else bought today see something similar ?) Actually I' m hoping this overshoot some more. P/B below 50% for a reit is getting very interesting.  my next buy level will be 0.42.  Hope it reaches tomorrow :) At this rate, 10% down a week, it will be free before the 1st distribution is even paid :D
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CheeryVGoh Supreme	04-Nov-2019 22:12        CheeryVGoh About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	But the price getting lower & lower each trading day. So big holders sell out together. It might be related to changes in the U.S. tax regulation, let' s why they are in a hurry as is already Nov - My guess.  From KGI' s report : Key Risks -  Key risks include the finalisation of U.S. tax regulation (Section 267A) anticipated at year end raptor87      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:55) Posted: Panic selling to pare down stake. But if they are smart, they should at least coordinate. All exit at same time result in worst outcomes as bids will disappear (nobody wants to catch a falling knife).   onegun      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:49) Posted: if we notice, these chinese SSH are selling their stock at same times, can' t believe there are not coordinated moves
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raptor87 Member	04-Nov-2019 21:55        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Panic selling to pare down stake. But if they are smart, they should at least coordinate. All exit at same time result in worst outcomes as bids will disappear (nobody wants to catch a falling knife).   onegun      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:49) Posted: if we notice, these chinese SSH are selling their stock at same times, can' t believe there are not coordinated moves
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onegun Member	04-Nov-2019 21:49        onegun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	if we notice, these chinese SSH are selling their stock at same times, can' t believe there are not coordinated moves
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teeth53 Supreme	04-Nov-2019 21:47        teeth53 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life "
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Trade war have end yet n may last several years after Trump coming election. teeth53      ( Date: 24-May-2019 06:52) Posted: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Eagle%20Hospitality%20Trust%20-%20Allocation%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=560725 A victim of U.S. - China  on going trade war
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teeth53 Supreme	04-Nov-2019 21:39        teeth53 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "don't learn through life, learn to grow with life "
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It both way. Both have to suffer B4 both start talking. Secret_Squirrel      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 17:31) Posted: Trump is smarter than the Chinese. If they are smart, their economy won' t not be in a mess now. So much debt. m2d4pc      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 17:16) Posted: The Chineses are the home town of Sun Tzi, famous for Art of War they are so cunning, even Trump is wary of them Their strategis can be unpredictable they may stop selling in next few day, but start to sell again in near futur
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CheeryVGoh Supreme	04-Nov-2019 21:35        CheeryVGoh About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	QIAN JIANRONG' S direct interest before the trans : 65,410,900 units After the trans : 52,610,900 units CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:30) Posted: SGX web could not download. Got it from Eagle website :- QIAN JIANRONG let go of 12,800,000 shares for USD7,040,000 on 31/10. From 7.53% to 6.06%. raptor87      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:19) Posted: Anybody able to download the Disclosure of Interest form for EHT posted on SGX at 5.20 pm today? It keeps opening a new tab and couldn' t view the pdf. Wonder who sold today.
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raptor87 Member	04-Nov-2019 21:34        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Would major investors be foolish to dump it at force prices lower and hurt their own net worth? It sensible to wait and let prices consolidate higher then sell smaller lots along the way up, not panic sell on the way down, hitting more bids, scaring the market to withdraw bids with begets further bloodletting.. Those holding more than even 5% would be stupid to continue dumping as they can' t dump all at once without moving the market against themselves. But then.. some people are not rational. Ultimately prices need to find some sort of equillibrium. Unless this is a total fraud, there has to be a floor, and its nearing.
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CheeryVGoh Supreme	04-Nov-2019 21:30        CheeryVGoh About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	SGX web could not download. Got it from Eagle website :- QIAN JIANRONG let go of 12,800,000 shares for USD7,040,000 on 31/10. From 7.53% to 6.06%. raptor87      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 21:19) Posted: Anybody able to download the Disclosure of Interest form for EHT posted on SGX at 5.20 pm today? It keeps opening a new tab and couldn' t view the pdf. Wonder who sold today.
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raptor87 Member	04-Nov-2019 21:23        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If it was a non-dividend paying stock, i' d say cut loss. But the yields have to support it eventually, if its earnings on par with forecasts. onegun      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 20:42) Posted: how many will wait for at least some bounce? cut loss seems like an easy way out, but what could be other bad news? low dpu? I feel all major bombs all exploded
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onegun Member	04-Nov-2019 20:42        onegun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	how many will wait for at least some bounce? cut loss seems like an easy way out, but what could be other bad news? low dpu? I feel all major bombs all exploded
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danger Supreme	04-Nov-2019 20:31        danger About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just a mere 20 or 30 lots in last few days.. already few k down the drain already
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danger Supreme	04-Nov-2019 20:28        danger About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	He himself updated his post
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onegun Member	04-Nov-2019 20:28        onegun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	how do you know he cut loss danger      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 20:07) Posted: This blogger also got slaughtered:  Under the worst-case scenario, a 9% dividend yield seems about fair in current environment given that (i) it is a hospitality reit, (ii) an overseas REIT with exchange rate risks and (iii) relatively high gearing. This seems to suggest that the likelihood of upside is higher than the downside and the margin of safety (from its NAV) seems adequate. On the basis of the 3 reasons outlined above, Heartland Boy took a small position on Eagle Hospitality Trust at a share price of US$0.555. Of course, since this is an extremely volatile stapled trust, Heartland Boy will implement a 15-20% stop-loss if it turns out that he is sipping from a poisoned chalice. This article was published on 3 Nov 2019. Update: Heartland Boy cut loss at $0.475 on 4 Nov 2019. Sgvale      ( Date: 04-Nov-2019 18:46) Posted: --- Post Removed by User ---
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