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Latest Forum Topics / Olam Intl  Post Reply
Koh Eco - a Promising E&C company
derekchong
Master
03-Sep-2013 11:21     
 
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 Alert Admin

Muddy Water narrow escape last year,

still making a lots of noise but

no effect anymore.
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Octavia
Supreme
03-Sep-2013 09:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Muddy Waters (MW) has just issued a new report on Olam International Limited (Olam), titling its ?Not Changing the Old Ways?, which again raised issues over transparency and corporate governance, as well as remaining skeptical if Olam will operate differently in the future. In particular, the viability of the Gabon fertilizer project was called into question, where MW believed that Tata Chemical (TCL) is highly unlikely to participate in the project. OCBC note that in any case, house current forecasts do not include any contributions from Gabon as have always held the conservative view and would only include the project if it has achieved financial close. While house expect the new MW report to weigh slightly on sentiment, maintaining forecasts for now, given that it has already pared its FY14F core net profit figure by 16% recently. Overall, house maintain HOLD with an unchanged $1.45 fair value.
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Peter_Pan
Supreme
03-Sep-2013 09:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		New Muddy Water report - HOLD - TP $1.45 - OCBCS
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hello123
Senior
03-Sep-2013 00:29     
 
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Yells: " google ' sgx swinger ' - for how stock operators work "
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 Alert Admin

1.5 hrs after call on Olam bounce,   Olam opened at 141.5 and bounced to close 147.

  for more details   , see my chart in    http://sgxswinger.blogspot.sg/

hello123      ( Date: 02-Sep-2013 07:31) Posted:



Olam now 143.5 may bounce 

for more details   , see my chart in  http://sgxswinger.blogspot.sg/

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Peter_Pan
Supreme
02-Sep-2013 18:36     
 
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Yells: "kopi-o siu dai mai hum!"
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 Alert Admin 		Wish them happy labour day...

singaporean      ( Date: 02-Sep-2013 18:33) Posted:



Aftr running away fm Olam's law suit Muddy Waters has no credibility to commt on Olam's biz and their words sud be read in derision -  hv the cheek!  Just see this time whether Carson Block dare to short, apparently this time just empty talk.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 02-Sep-2013 08:55) Posted:

Muddy Waters, LLC
www.muddywatersresearch.com
Olam International: Strong Sell
September 2, 2013
Director of Research: Carson C. Block, Esq. 
Not Changing the Old Ways
We continue to believe that, in a world where capital is allocated to maximize economic 
efficiency, Olam?s shares have no value. The Company has simply borrowed too much 
money, and then invested in projectsthat will not generate sufficient returns to repay its 
debt obligations. In this note, we will only briefly comment on Olam?s FY 2013 results. 
(Numerous analysts have already done so.) Instead, we will focus on qualitative points 
that cause us to believe Olam is not really turning over a new leaf.
Olam?s FY 2013 results display the pathologies we noted in November 2012:
? Adjusted return on average assets was only 1.8%. (We adjusted net income to 
S$261.8 million by excluding from Olam?s operational profit after tax all 
biological gains and changes in measurement of derivatives.
1
For an explanation 
of how and why we make adjustments to Olam?s net income, see our initial report 
dated November 26, 2012.)
? Allowance for doubtful accounts more than halved from S$22.6 million to S$9.6 
million, which made FY 2013 a less unfavorable a comparison to FY 2012.
? Inventory write-downs were only S$115,000, versus S$15 million last year, which 
also made FY 2013 a less unfavorable comparison to FY 2012.
? Free cash burn was S$800.4 million, and Olam spent S$1.1 billion on acquisitions 
and investments in FY 2013.
The big picture issue is that we are skeptical Olam will operate differently in the future.
? There have been no changes to the board since our initial report. This board had 
been complacent, at best, as Olam went on its borrowing and spending binge. It 
was evidently more concerned with the messenger than the message when we first 
spoke critically of the Company. 
Olam?s board has ossified. The average tenure of Olam?s independent directors is 
11.4 years. Olam?s IPO was only eight years ago. Only one independent director 
1
We do not ignore asset impairment charges because we see these as a likely understated, and recurring 
function of Olam?s business.
Page 2has been appointed since Olam?s IPO, and that was five years ago. These 
gentlemen have become too vested in Olam?s mistakes to deal with them 
effectively.
? CEO Sunny Verghese said nothing during the call, which might be interpreted as 
the Company transitioning to a future without Mr. Verghese. However, what 
would really change if Mr. Verghese were no longer CEO? Olam has a tightknit 
? probably insular ? core of top managers who have worked together for many 
years. Were the Company?s new leadership to come from the existing pool of top 
management, which seems to lack diversity of views, what would really change? 
? Olam continued to essentially invent its own performance metricsin a 
continuation of past less-than-best practices. For the FY 2013 results, Olam
altered its definition of free cash flow, thereby excluding cash interest, taxes, and 
certain working capital account changes. (Our initial report explains the 
irrelevance of Olam?s invented gross and net contribution metrics.)
? Olam was asked what its average cost of debt is, and Mr. Anatharaman did not 
answer the question with any specificity.
? More birds in the bush are better than one in the hand. Olam steadfastly refuses 
to provide real transparency into the Gabon fertilizer project. Reading between 
the lines, Tata Chemicals (?TCL?) is highly unlikely to participate in the project. 
Rather than acknowledging this, Olam stated that it is happily looking for more 
possible partners who are willing to buy in (so that Olam can sell down). We 
believe the reality is that TCL no longer views the project as attractive (if it ever 
did). Our recommendation is that Olam fall on the sword, admit to investors it 
wasted significant money on dredging, and terminate the project.
? This brings up perhaps the most significant point: Despite Olam?s new strategic 
plan that calls for capital spending to be curtailed (notwithstanding the Company 
responding to our initial criticism by defiantly pledging to increase capex and 
investment), Olam has not admitted having had a problem. In other words, the 
Company has not acknowledged that it made a number of investments that will 
not ?gestate? into returns in excess of their costs. It is well settled that the road to 
any recovery begins with an acknowledgement that a problem exists. We have 
yet to hear anything of thissort from Olam. Investors really need to understand 
why this problem exists, and how the Company proposes to fix it. Lacking this 
transparency, investors have no basis to form opinions as to whether the Company 
is likely to improve its performance.
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singaporean
Member
02-Sep-2013 18:33     
 
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Aftr running away fm Olam's law suit Muddy Waters has no credibility to commt on Olam's biz and their words sud be read in derision -  hv the cheek!  Just see this time whether Carson Block dare to short, apparently this time just empty talk.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 02-Sep-2013 08:55) Posted:

Muddy Waters, LLC
www.muddywatersresearch.com
Olam International: Strong Sell
September 2, 2013
Director of Research: Carson C. Block, Esq. 
Not Changing the Old Ways
We continue to believe that, in a world where capital is allocated to maximize economic 
efficiency, Olam?s shares have no value. The Company has simply borrowed too much 
money, and then invested in projectsthat will not generate sufficient returns to repay its 
debt obligations. In this note, we will only briefly comment on Olam?s FY 2013 results. 
(Numerous analysts have already done so.) Instead, we will focus on qualitative points 
that cause us to believe Olam is not really turning over a new leaf.
Olam?s FY 2013 results display the pathologies we noted in November 2012:
? Adjusted return on average assets was only 1.8%. (We adjusted net income to 
S$261.8 million by excluding from Olam?s operational profit after tax all 
biological gains and changes in measurement of derivatives.
1
For an explanation 
of how and why we make adjustments to Olam?s net income, see our initial report 
dated November 26, 2012.)
? Allowance for doubtful accounts more than halved from S$22.6 million to S$9.6 
million, which made FY 2013 a less unfavorable a comparison to FY 2012.
? Inventory write-downs were only S$115,000, versus S$15 million last year, which 
also made FY 2013 a less unfavorable comparison to FY 2012.
? Free cash burn was S$800.4 million, and Olam spent S$1.1 billion on acquisitions 
and investments in FY 2013.
The big picture issue is that we are skeptical Olam will operate differently in the future.
? There have been no changes to the board since our initial report. This board had 
been complacent, at best, as Olam went on its borrowing and spending binge. It 
was evidently more concerned with the messenger than the message when we first 
spoke critically of the Company. 
Olam?s board has ossified. The average tenure of Olam?s independent directors is 
11.4 years. Olam?s IPO was only eight years ago. Only one independent director 
1
We do not ignore asset impairment charges because we see these as a likely understated, and recurring 
function of Olam?s business.
Page 2has been appointed since Olam?s IPO, and that was five years ago. These 
gentlemen have become too vested in Olam?s mistakes to deal with them 
effectively.
? CEO Sunny Verghese said nothing during the call, which might be interpreted as 
the Company transitioning to a future without Mr. Verghese. However, what 
would really change if Mr. Verghese were no longer CEO? Olam has a tightknit 
? probably insular ? core of top managers who have worked together for many 
years. Were the Company?s new leadership to come from the existing pool of top 
management, which seems to lack diversity of views, what would really change? 
? Olam continued to essentially invent its own performance metricsin a 
continuation of past less-than-best practices. For the FY 2013 results, Olam
altered its definition of free cash flow, thereby excluding cash interest, taxes, and 
certain working capital account changes. (Our initial report explains the 
irrelevance of Olam?s invented gross and net contribution metrics.)
? Olam was asked what its average cost of debt is, and Mr. Anatharaman did not 
answer the question with any specificity.
? More birds in the bush are better than one in the hand. Olam steadfastly refuses 
to provide real transparency into the Gabon fertilizer project. Reading between 
the lines, Tata Chemicals (?TCL?) is highly unlikely to participate in the project. 
Rather than acknowledging this, Olam stated that it is happily looking for more 
possible partners who are willing to buy in (so that Olam can sell down). We 
believe the reality is that TCL no longer views the project as attractive (if it ever 
did). Our recommendation is that Olam fall on the sword, admit to investors it 
wasted significant money on dredging, and terminate the project.
? This brings up perhaps the most significant point: Despite Olam?s new strategic 
plan that calls for capital spending to be curtailed (notwithstanding the Company 
responding to our initial criticism by defiantly pledging to increase capex and 
investment), Olam has not admitted having had a problem. In other words, the 
Company has not acknowledged that it made a number of investments that will 
not ?gestate? into returns in excess of their costs. It is well settled that the road to 
any recovery begins with an acknowledgement that a problem exists. We have 
yet to hear anything of thissort from Olam. Investors really need to understand 
why this problem exists, and how the Company proposes to fix it. Lacking this 
transparency, investors have no basis to form opinions as to whether the Company 
is likely to improve its performance.
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derekchong
Master
02-Sep-2013 15:39     
 
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last week got ang moh short this one or not,

ah ma go and ask Christmas present from them.
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alexgray90
Member
02-Sep-2013 15:16     
 
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Yells: ""stocks day trading picks""
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 Alert Admin 		Olam?s cash and cash equivalents stood at $1.3 billion, up from $601.8 million a year ago. Free cashflow has also improved to a negative $316 million from negative $661 million in 2012 and the firm aims to be free cashflow positive from FY2014 onwards, a target brought forward by a year after the attack by US shortseller Muddy Waters in November 2012. See More at http://goo.gl/JtKiBu
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biturbo
Senior
02-Sep-2013 14:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Very tiring for these analysts... Keep changing their TP...
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guoyanyunyan
Supreme
02-Sep-2013 14:29     
 
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HOLD with lower S$1.45 fair value

By Carey Wong 

Olam posted FY13 revenue of S$20.9b, up 22%, and was around 5% ahead of our forecast versus reported net profit, core earnings came in much lower at S$314.3m, but still up 13%, and was about 3% ahead of our estimate. Olam declared a final dividend of S$0.04/share, unchanged from last year. In view of the eroding profitability, we pare our FY14F core net profit figure by 16% (but still expect to see decent earnings growth in FY15). This also drops our fair value from S$1.73 to S$1.45, still based on 10x FY14F EPS. Maintain HOLD.

FY13 results just in line 
Olam posted FY14 revenue of S$20.8b, up 22%, and was around 5% ahead of our forecast, as it continued to enjoy strong volume growth (+49.5%). However, reported net profit slipped 2% to S$362.6m, hit by higher taxation. Besides higher taxation (in line with our forecast), we also note that margins have fallen across some business segments, core earnings came in much lower at S$314.3m, but still up 13%, and was about 3% ahead of our estimate. Olam declared a final dividend of S$0.04/share, unchanged from last year.

Profitability/ton appears to be lower
Business-wise, the Food Staples and Packaged Foods segment contributed 36% of total 4QFY13 revenue, as revenue jumped 53% YoY, volume +29% but we note that profitability has slipped, with GC/ton down 17% and NC/ton down 12%. Confectionery & Beverage Ingredients was next with 24% contribution in 4Q, where revenue climbed 22% YoY, volume +23% but again we note lower profitability, with GC/ton falling 41% and NC/ton down 42%. Industrial Raw Materials contributed 22% of 4Q13 revenue, but sales slipped 4% YoY, even as volume +30% GC/ton was flat, but NC/ton rose 19%. 

Net gearing back at 2.0x 
Meanwhile, net gearing has eased somewhat from 2.2x as of end Mar to around 2.0x as of end Jun, and is back to the same level as last Jun. Olam believes that it has made progress on its strategic plan priorities and pathways identified include taking a rebalanced approach to growth and cash-flow generation (aims to be FCF positive by FY14). 

Lower S$1.45 fair value
In view of the eroding profitability, we pare our FY14F core net profit figure by 16% (but still expect to see decent earnings growth in FY15). This also drops our fair value from S$1.73 to S$1.45, still based on 10x FY14F EPS. Maintain  HOLD.    ....last: $1.44...



 

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Peter_Pan
Supreme
02-Sep-2013 08:55     
 
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Yells: "kopi-o siu dai mai hum!"
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 Alert Admin
Muddy Waters, LLC
www.muddywatersresearch.com
Olam International: Strong Sell
September 2, 2013
Director of Research: Carson C. Block, Esq. 
Not Changing the Old Ways
We continue to believe that, in a world where capital is allocated to maximize economic 
efficiency, Olam?s shares have no value. The Company has simply borrowed too much 
money, and then invested in projectsthat will not generate sufficient returns to repay its 
debt obligations. In this note, we will only briefly comment on Olam?s FY 2013 results. 
(Numerous analysts have already done so.) Instead, we will focus on qualitative points 
that cause us to believe Olam is not really turning over a new leaf.
Olam?s FY 2013 results display the pathologies we noted in November 2012:
? Adjusted return on average assets was only 1.8%. (We adjusted net income to 
S$261.8 million by excluding from Olam?s operational profit after tax all 
biological gains and changes in measurement of derivatives.
1
For an explanation 
of how and why we make adjustments to Olam?s net income, see our initial report 
dated November 26, 2012.)
? Allowance for doubtful accounts more than halved from S$22.6 million to S$9.6 
million, which made FY 2013 a less unfavorable a comparison to FY 2012.
? Inventory write-downs were only S$115,000, versus S$15 million last year, which 
also made FY 2013 a less unfavorable comparison to FY 2012.
? Free cash burn was S$800.4 million, and Olam spent S$1.1 billion on acquisitions 
and investments in FY 2013.
The big picture issue is that we are skeptical Olam will operate differently in the future.
? There have been no changes to the board since our initial report. This board had 
been complacent, at best, as Olam went on its borrowing and spending binge. It 
was evidently more concerned with the messenger than the message when we first 
spoke critically of the Company. 
Olam?s board has ossified. The average tenure of Olam?s independent directors is 
11.4 years. Olam?s IPO was only eight years ago. Only one independent director 
1
We do not ignore asset impairment charges because we see these as a likely understated, and recurring 
function of Olam?s business.
Page 2has been appointed since Olam?s IPO, and that was five years ago. These 
gentlemen have become too vested in Olam?s mistakes to deal with them 
effectively.
? CEO Sunny Verghese said nothing during the call, which might be interpreted as 
the Company transitioning to a future without Mr. Verghese. However, what 
would really change if Mr. Verghese were no longer CEO? Olam has a tightknit 
? probably insular ? core of top managers who have worked together for many 
years. Were the Company?s new leadership to come from the existing pool of top 
management, which seems to lack diversity of views, what would really change? 
? Olam continued to essentially invent its own performance metricsin a 
continuation of past less-than-best practices. For the FY 2013 results, Olam
altered its definition of free cash flow, thereby excluding cash interest, taxes, and 
certain working capital account changes. (Our initial report explains the 
irrelevance of Olam?s invented gross and net contribution metrics.)
? Olam was asked what its average cost of debt is, and Mr. Anatharaman did not 
answer the question with any specificity.
? More birds in the bush are better than one in the hand. Olam steadfastly refuses 
to provide real transparency into the Gabon fertilizer project. Reading between 
the lines, Tata Chemicals (?TCL?) is highly unlikely to participate in the project. 
Rather than acknowledging this, Olam stated that it is happily looking for more 
possible partners who are willing to buy in (so that Olam can sell down). We 
believe the reality is that TCL no longer views the project as attractive (if it ever 
did). Our recommendation is that Olam fall on the sword, admit to investors it 
wasted significant money on dredging, and terminate the project.
? This brings up perhaps the most significant point: Despite Olam?s new strategic 
plan that calls for capital spending to be curtailed (notwithstanding the Company 
responding to our initial criticism by defiantly pledging to increase capex and 
investment), Olam has not admitted having had a problem. In other words, the 
Company has not acknowledged that it made a number of investments that will 
not ?gestate? into returns in excess of their costs. It is well settled that the road to 
any recovery begins with an acknowledgement that a problem exists. We have 
yet to hear anything of thissort from Olam. Investors really need to understand 
why this problem exists, and how the Company proposes to fix it. Lacking this 
transparency, investors have no basis to form opinions as to whether the Company 
is likely to improve its performance.
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hello123
Senior
02-Sep-2013 07:31     
 
hello123 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: yawn
Yells: " google ' sgx swinger ' - for how stock operators work "
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Olam now 143.5 may bounce 

for more details   , see my chart in  http://sgxswinger.blogspot.sg/
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biturbo
Senior
01-Sep-2013 23:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		1.39 good price to pick up...

luminol      ( Date: 30-Aug-2013 15:25) Posted:



Olam got unlimited healing potion supply. XD

  Doesn't seem to get hurt badly.

Time to pick up some! 

biturbo      ( Date: 30-Aug-2013 15:11) Posted:

No one wack olam... Must be TMS talisman... :)
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luminol
Senior
30-Aug-2013 15:25     
 
luminol About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: excited
Yells: "Correlation does not imply causation."
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Olam got unlimited healing potion supply. XD

  Doesn't seem to get hurt badly.

Time to pick up some! 

biturbo      ( Date: 30-Aug-2013 15:11) Posted:

No one wack olam... Must be TMS talisman... :)
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biturbo
Senior
30-Aug-2013 15:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		No one wack olam... Must be TMS talisman... :)
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alexgray90
Member
30-Aug-2013 14:51     
 
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Badly hurt by higher tax charges. According to OSK, Olam 4Q profit fell by 48%. Hit by the jump in tax charges, Singapore commodities firm Olam?s 4QFY13 profits fell by 48% y-oy to SGD56.8m.

High Dividend yield Stock Picks http://goo.gl/JtKiBu

 
Stock Recommendation for Future at http://ow.ly/op0iP

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Peter_Pan
Supreme
30-Aug-2013 12:10     
 
Peter_Pan About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: cool
Yells: "kopi-o siu dai mai hum!"
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 Alert Admin 		Olam may hit 1.20
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Obfuscate
Senior
30-Aug-2013 11:22     
 
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Here is the truth: None of the analyst covering China Minzhong had a sell rating before the stock price halved in one day.

Equity analysts don't see the picture of bigger forces at work, the global fund movements that are driving Asian and other emerging currencies down,  global interest rates up etc.
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Obfuscate
Senior
30-Aug-2013 11:14     
 
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Total outstanding debt at end Jun / mkt cap today = 2.60. As a reference point, Noble Group is 1.60 and Wilmar is 1.58. 

Total debt is going even higher with the latest loan announcements.  No need to take cash holdings into account and look at net debt because the cash cannot be used without consequences. Case in point: Apple has c.US$147 bn cash and still had to issue US$17 bn bonds to pay dividend.
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guoyanyunyan
Supreme
30-Aug-2013 11:08     
 
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Some progress in sight



Target S$1.58 (Long Term: Neutral)

Core profits missed expectations despite strong growth in revenue yoy due primarily to significantly higher tax. Nevertheless, we see Olam's strategy review earlier this year bearing fruit as volumes begin to recover across most segments. FY13 core net profit was below consensus and our estimates, coming in at 78% and 76% respectively, due mainly to higher taxes, partly one-off. We raise our FY14-15 EPS forecasts and raise our target price (based on 1x CY13 NAV) to S$1.58, upgrading to Neutral, from Underperform, on solid revenue growth.

FY13 core net profit was below consensus and our estimates, coming in at 78% and 76% respectively, due mainly to higher taxes, partly one-off. We raise our FY14-15 EPS forecasts and raise our target price (based on 1x CY13 NAV) to S$1.58, upgrading to Neutral, from Underperform, on solid revenue growth.

Steady recovery
Most segments saw an improvement in volumes and revenues for FY13. Food staples & packaged foods continued its strong run, with volume up 84% yoy and net contribution growth of 50.8% as the grains business benefited from capacity expansion in Nigeria. The industrial raw materials segment registered robust volume growth of 17.9% yoy as net contribution grew 47.3%. Growth was driven primarily by volume expansion in cotton.

But with caveats
Edible nuts, spices & beans swung back into growth for 4Q13, but full-year growth left much to be desired net contribution grew by 7.1% yoy compared to double-digit growth previously. The tomato business continued to drag 4Q13 margins. Confectionary & beverage ingredients' volume was stagnant, with net contribution falling 11.9% yoy. Coffee rust disease continued to depress coffee sales volumes. Core net profits were below expectations because of higher EBIT contribution from higher tax jurisdictions and one-off tax charges.

Glimmer of hope
Olam's strategy review has begun to see results, and adjusted net gearing is a manageable 0.55x. Free cashflow, though still negative, continues its upward trend, with capex slowing down. We upgrade the stock to Neutral on the back of stronger segmental performance.

Source: CIMB   ...last: $1.43...
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