Weekly Gold & Silver Market Recap -- 10/4/2013

GOVERNMENT DEADLOCK ON SPENDING BILL WEIGHS ON FUTURES MARKET

As the week began, the focus was toward the U.S. government who was attempting to reach an agreement to avoid a shutdown.  Congress had until Monday night to pass a budget bill otherwise causing a partial government shutdown  resulting in thousands of worker furloughs. ''As we've seen in the past, the months leading up to the deadline are simply seen as an opportunity for both sides to gain political points, while making a villain out of the opposition. It?s only in the final 24 hours that any actual progress tends to be made,'' Craig Erlam, market analyst at Alpari U.K., said. ''We can only hope that this is what we're seeing again.'' As America waited for legislation in Washington, the market anticipated Friday?s monthly jobs report to be delayed from a government shutdown. The jobs report has been the most highly scrutinized piece of economic data in the lead up to the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary easing measures.

PRECIOUS METALS PRICES AFFECTED BY ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY

Monday the Gold price took a dip as the inevitability of stimulus tapering remains to weigh heavily on the minds of Precious Metals investors. Though Gold is up more than 8 percent from lows experienced in late June and July, the metal continues to look for a catalyst to break out of bearish territory. The  impasse in Washington regarding a spending bill was thought to be a bullish factor  as uncertainty surrounding government stability typically has been an important motivator of Precious Metals prices.

U.S. GOV?T SHUTS DOWN

Precious Metals prices fell in overnight trading into Tuesday, shrugging off brief gains  immediately after the U.S. government shut down  for the first time in 17 years. One major concern, however, is that Congress could potentially have an even harder time with the debt-ceiling deadline, which is Oct. 17.  Commerzbank analysts explained the worst-case scenario, writing, ''In the worst case, the country could actually face insolvency, and while there is very little chance of it coming to that, such a development would seriously push up Gold prices.'' An estimated  800,000 federal government workers were reportedly off the job  as Congressional Republicans and Democrats battle over President Barack Obama?s Affordable Care Act.

CURRENT POLITICAL, ECONOMIC CLIMATE BOOST GOLD

Wednesday was the second full day of a  U.S. government shutdown that took its toll on markets  as a weaker dollar pushed Gold up and forced equities down. As government officials remained at an impasse regarding passing a budget bill, the debt ceiling looming on the horizon and jobs numbers falling below initial projections, there was little to prevent Gold from rebounding off of an eight week low realized after Tuesday?s large sell-off. ''The shutdown will lead to some delays in government spending, which will lead to a postponement in tapering as the Fed wants to see more signs of growth,'' Scott Carter, chief executive officer of Lear Capital, said. ''Also, today?s ADP numbers showed that the employment scenario still remains weak.'' With a plethora of factors lined up in support of Precious Metals prices, time will tell if political and economic indicators will be foreboding enough to swing investor sentiment away from riskier investments and help Gold break out of its current bearish trend.

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AFFECTING U.S. DOLLAR

Precious Metal prices received a boost Wednesday with Gold in particular rising more than 2 percent as the U.S. dollar continued to drop with economic uncertainty. ''Clearly the dollar is not really playing that much of a safe-haven role through this latest episode,'' Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at BNP Paribas, said. The dollar has been suffering since Sept. 6 when the weaker than expected August jobs report was released. The Federal Reserve more than likely made their decision to announce at their policy meeting not to taper fiscal policy based on the disappointing job data. ''The longer uncertainty drags out, the more of an economic impact it has and the more I think market participants will see implications for Fed policy, pushing back tapering.  It should continue hurting the dollar and I think it's going to continue to grind lower,'' Serebriakov said.

GOLD PARES EARLY LOSSES STOCKS DIVE ON GOVERNMENT CLOSURE

Gold and Silver prices were slightly down Thursday as expectations for an end to the U.S. government closure appear to be fairly distant. While current  political and economic factors would traditionally be bullish  for Gold, investors and traders remain focused on the underperformance of the yellow metal during 2013. ''If the U.S. government closure moves into next week, Gold will rise,'' Chintan Karnani, chief analyst at Insignia Consultants, said. ''Since Gold is below the 100-day moving average of $1,353, the overall trend is bearish to range-bound between $1,270 and $1,356.'' Even as Gold rebounded from early morning lows on the heels of poor manufacturing numbers, the primary motivator of investor sentiment, and ultimately the price of Gold, is the future of the Federal Reserve?s quantitative easing program.

DEBT CEILING LOOMS AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONTINUES

Precious Metals continued to trade lower on Friday. With the government shutdown stretching into the fourth day, many investors are still trying to figure things out. Sharps Pixley chief executive officer Ross Norman said, ''Explaining what we call the ?Frankenstein? economy is kind of tough at the moment  when things don?t move entirely as they should.''

The U.S. debt ceiling has begun to take center stage as the Oct. 17 deadline for Congress to raise the nation's debt limit approaches. Democratic minority leader of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said the current situation gives ''every appearance of  getting dangerously close to the conversation on the debt ceiling.'' A U.S. default could have a catastrophic effect that would be felt around the world. However, as fiat currencies come and go, Precious Metals continue to have value over time.

At 4:53 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,312.80, Down $6.80.
• Silver, $21.79, Down $0.03.

Mid-Day Gold & Silver Market Report -- 10/4/2013

DEBT CEILING LOOMS AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONTINUES

Precious Metals continue to trade lower through midday. With the government shutdown stretching into the fourth day, many investors are still trying to figure things out. Sharps Pixley chief executive officer Ross Norman said, ''  Explaining what we call the ?Frankenstein? economy is kind of tough at the moment  when things don?t move entirely as they should.''

The U.S. debt ceiling is beginning to take center stage as the October 17 deadline for Congress to raise the nation?s debt limit approaches.  Democratic minority leader of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said the current situation gives ''every appearance of  getting dangerously close to the conversation on the debt ceiling.''   A U.S. default could have a catastrophic effect that would be felt around the world.  However, as fiat currencies come and go, Precious Metals continue to have value over time.   

At 1:30 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,311.80, Down $7.80.
• Silver, $21.77, Down $0.05.

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report -- 10/4/2013

TREASURY: NO CHANCE WE SELL GOLD TO PAY BILLS

Gold and Silver prices are trading lower as the U.S. government shutdown enters day four. Recently, MarketWatch's Brett Arends asked a U.S. Treasury spokeswoman if the U.S. would consider selling its Gold holdings to pay debt if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling. The spokeswoman said, ''Selling Gold would undercut confidence  in the U.S. both here and abroad, and would be destabilizing to the world financial system.'' John Strauss, co-manager of the Appleseed mutual fund, said, ''With Gold on the ropes this year, investors are increasingly questioning the intrinsic value of Gold. Given the craziness in D.C., it seems to me that investors should really be questioning the intrinsic value of paper dollars backed by feckless promises.''

U.S. stock futures are pointing higher in pre-market trading, but this doesn't surprise CNBC?s Jim Cramer. Cramer said yesterday, ''Stocks will probably bounce on Friday, as they often do on Fridays when the short sellers fear that we could get a deal over the weekend. That's how it always is with these political fights. I?m not expecting a deal. And if I?m right and none comes, the selling will just start all over again on Monday.'' Cramer was speaking on yesterday?s heavy selling in the markets, and said it was ?day one? of a big sell-off in stocks.

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,319.60, Even.
• Silver, $21.82, Up $0.01.

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report  ------- 10/3/2013

• Gold, $1,319.10, Down $3.60.
• Silver, $21.74, Down $0.19.

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report -- 10/3/2013

PROFIT-TAKING BRINGS GOLD PRICE DOWN

Precious Metals prices and U.S. stock futures are down this morning.  Ishaq Siddiqi of ETX Capital wrote, ''Traders are hoping to hear of some political compromise  before the week comes to an end but as of now, are not discounting the possibility of the [[U.S. government]] shutdown running into next week. On top of that, the looming debt ceiling debate also has the market on edge.''   Precious Metals are down amid profit-taking,  with investors taking advantage of yesterday?s price gain.  VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov said, ''There is some profit-taking and volumes are low as investors are not certain of the U.S. political deadlock.''

Representative Steve Womack of Arkansas is one Republican  looking ahead to the debt ceiling debate.  Womack would like to ''get our attention immediately focused on this debt ceiling and beyond that, our capacity to address those issues that are continuing to take America down a road that is not sustainable and that is potentially catastrophic to our nation.''   The Republican-controlled House of Representatives and the Democrat-controlled Senate are at an impasse over the government?s budget for fiscal year 2014.

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,309.30, Down $13.40.
• Silver, $21.60, Down $0.33.

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report  -- 10/2/2013

• Gold, $1,318.40, Up $30.30.
• Silver, $21.76, Up $0.56.

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report -- 10/2/2013

SHUTDOWN OR NO,   DEBT CEILING STILL LOOMS

The second day of the U.S. government shutdown has now affected the U.S. dollar, driving it down and giving support to the Gold price.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew  reiterated his previous statements  regarding the debt ceiling, saying that the country will have a mere $30 billion cash on hand on October 17.  Lew said, ''If we have insufficient cash on hand, it would be impossible for the United States of America to meet all of its obligations for the first time in our history.''   The ADP private-sector jobs report was released this morning,  showing a gain of 166,000 jobs, about 14,000 less than expected.  If the government shutdowns continue, the Labor Department's monthly jobs report will not be released Friday.

Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said that rumors were swirling regarding a hedge fund liquidating its Gold position yesterday, causing the sharp decline in prices.    This caused a sort of domino effect.  While noting that nothing has been confirmed, Bhar said, ''There have been some rumours that a hedge fund was liquidating heavily and then once prices fell through $1,300 you just got the technical sellers coming in.''   Some typical Gold support is absent, as China is out of the markets for the National Day holidays through October 7.

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,304.50, Up $16.40.
• Silver, $21.46, Up $0.26.

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report ? 10/1/2013

• Gold, $1,289.60, Down $39.40.
• Silver, $21.20, Down $0.54.

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report ? 10/1/2013

U.S. GOV?T SHUTS DOWN, GDP COULD TAKE HIT

Precious Metals prices fell in overnight trading, shrugging off brief gains  immediately after the U.S. government shut down  for the first time in 17 years.  Investors appear to be betting that the matter will be resolved shortly.  One major concern, however, is that Congress could potentially have an even harder time with the debt-ceiling deadline in just a couple weeks.  Commerzbank analysts explained the worst-case scenario, writing, ?In the worst case, the country could actually face insolvency, and while there is very little chance of it coming to that, such a development would seriously push up Gold prices.?

Macroeconomic Advisors released a report  that explained the potential effect of a government shutdown on gross domestic product (GDP).  The report showed that a two-week shutdown could impact GDP by 0.3 percent, a three-week shutdown would have a 0.5 percent impact, and a month-long shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.7 percent.  An estimated  800,000 federal government workers are now off the job  as Congressional Republicans and Democrats battle over President Barack Obama?s Affordable Care Act.

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,297.30, Down $31.70.
• Silver, $20.93, Down $0.81.

Closing Gold & Silver Market Report ? 9/30/2013

• Gold, $1,331.20, Down $10.00.
• Silver, $21.75, Down $0.11.