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Alset International (SeD) The new beginning
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Siwomp
Supreme |
28-Jul-2016 11:18
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NOL does not affect many Singaporean investors or ordinary Singaporean....... SMRT.....affects millions of riders every single day and many many Singaporean investors............
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Siwomp
Supreme |
28-Jul-2016 11:14
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imho....The world is not so simple. TH, GIC and MAS have the responsibility to defence the financial and economic stability of the country besides making $..... total defence mah..... they are guarding the financial and economic front..........among other .... erhm....responsibilities lor.
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-Jul-2016 10:24
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Vote with wallet not heart is better, bad economy best to have cash on hand.
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
28-Jul-2016 10:19
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My sense is there' s probably something very rotten with the surface rail lines. It' s nearly 30 yrs old, ill-maintained for a long time (which cld have aggravated its already poor condition) n probably the replacements required cld be more than just the sleepers. As for NEL, it' s abt 16 yrs younger, undergrd n subject to perhaps lower wear n tear from the merceless sun n rain. Maybe, there' s something more than meets the eye. Just a guess though. Otherwise, why are they so concerned abt SMRT n not SBST .....
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JTWKSG
Member |
28-Jul-2016 09:43
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Isn' t it irony that the analysts are bullish of ComfortDelgro under NRFF but not SMRT? Do you see the contradictory here? TH doing national service? Vote with your eyes open people! http://sbr.com.sg/transport-logistics/news/here&rsquo s-why-comfortdelgro-remains-alluring-despite-its-low-earnings-outlookHere&rsquo s why ComfortDelGro remains alluring despite its low earnings outlookSMRT' s NRFF will serve as reference to SBS Transit. Despite bleak expectations for ComfortDelGro&rsquo s (CDG) income, analysts are bullish on the transport company&rsquo s prospects under the New Rail Financing Framework (NRFF). According to a report by OCBC, SMRT&rsquo s recently announced NRFF serves as a good reference point on how the NRFF for SBS Transit&rsquo s&mdash which is 75% owned by CDG&mdash Northeast Line (NEL) and Sengkang-Punggol LRT (SPLRT) may be structured. Moreover, CDG also operates the Downtown Line (DTL), which is already under the NRFF. &ldquo Using SMRT&rsquo s NRFF as a reference, we assumed: 1) CDG&rsquo s NEL and DTL to have their EBIT margins (fare and non-fare) capped to 5% as well, and 2) LTA to structure payment for CDG&rsquo s bus assets similarly, through progressive payments over five years, which matches the license term of the new bus government contracting model,&rdquo OCBC notes. OCBC also estimates DTL will only break even from 2H17, and NEL to transit to NRFF only from FY18. |
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GoldNugget
Elite |
27-Jul-2016 20:16
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Will know in a months time. See how many share transacted. So far less then 10% of required share
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sgng123
Supreme |
27-Jul-2016 19:46
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Wait a while if u thinking to ride smrt train since it not a GO, share price would slowly retreat to pre DO range. Most investors would vote yes but whether it enough to hit the 75% go threhold is a guess. |
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GoldNugget
Elite |
27-Jul-2016 19:34
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Because TH suck thumb ...they have to buy SMRT. If not price crash. If they are purely profit driven, then they would not have sold at 1.3 when CMA offer 1.5. They could let smrt price drop last week then offer to buy out maybe at lower price. Since they cheapskate. If investment banks accessment of SMRT target price is in the range of 1-1.3 due to LTA deal ... In any case I am not saying that TH cant make SMRT to be very profitable to the extend they can offer a higher price. But look at NOL buy at 2.8 sell at 1.3 ... So many scholars cannot turn ard NOL until have to sell to French at lelong price.
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sgng123
Supreme |
27-Jul-2016 19:17
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Bb would push down SMRT since this is not a GO, temasek just offering a exit price if approved by 75% of total 46% investors. Basically all long term investors be forced to do national service just like NOL. Bb would try to accumulated lower price stock to dollar averaging total investment. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
27-Jul-2016 19:11
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Bro this is a DO aka delisting offer, not GO. Temasek not allowed to vote, buy, support stock price when the DO officially kick off. DO refer to scheme of arrangement where a special meeting would be held to vote on SMRT delist, if 75% vote yes SMRT would be delist and those who vote yes get 1.68 from temasek. Those who vote no would be stuck with unlisted shares. Basically u treated this as a enbloc deal, it a take it or leave deal. Temasek not paying a single cent nor would it support stock till 75% say yes.
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JTWKSG
Member |
27-Jul-2016 18:38
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Perhaps this is what the majority thinks, similar like you. They are a profit driven entity, not charity. If they like to do national service, why didn' t they buy back the rest of NOL shares instead of selling it? Since it is easier for them as they have a 66% holdings in NOL, higher than the 54% in SMRT? It is just like when you buy shares, you will buy when you see prospects and bright spots. If you think the prospects are dim, you will sell even if it means to cut loss. So, don' t think too much. It' s all about the $.
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Siwomp
Supreme |
27-Jul-2016 17:54
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imho.....the role of TH in this saga is to provide an window for the uncles and aunties to exit smrt at an artificially higher price that what it will be without the 1.68 offer post the asset buy back deal...... to TH, to privatise smrt or not is not the real goal. what is 2+ billion to TH?..... they certainly have bigger fish with more potential to catch than smrt. ....dyodd. This offer is in a sense........ national service lor. | ||||
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JTWKSG
Member |
27-Jul-2016 17:42
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The dilemma is: 1. If you believe the deal will go through, then you better sell now, as the upside is limited. You can use the fund to buy other shares for better return. Think Opportunity cost. If one believe the deal will go through at $1.68, why would he sell now at $1.63 incurring commission charges and getting lesser? Is the opportunity cost of $0.05 + brokerage commission charges worth the effort of selling now if he believe the deal will go through? But anyway, you may be right as there are such sellers around especially if they need the money. 2. If you believe the deal will not go through, then you also should sell now, as the price will almost sure to go down in short term. Temasek would not be able to launch another offer in one year. You can buy back later when the price, post-failed-deal, is lower than the price now. This is a more possible dilemma. Perhaps most of the sellers who sell now belongs to this category? It only shows that TH offer is really unattractive...
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investshare
Supreme |
27-Jul-2016 16:37
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The dilemma is: 1. If you believe the deal will go through, then you better sell now, as the upside is limited. You can use the fund to buy other shares for better return. Think Opportunity cost. 2. If you believe the deal will not go through, then you also should sell now, as the price will almost sure to go down in short term. Temasek would not be able to launch another offer in one year. You can buy back later when the price, post-failed-deal, is lower than the price now.
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
27-Jul-2016 16:21
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I still haven't received any clear answers on whether they would still
need 90% acceptance and share ownership to be achieved before they can acquire compulsorily and delist from SGX?
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sun233
Elite |
27-Jul-2016 16:11
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Good read. Thumbs up.
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JTWKSG
Member |
27-Jul-2016 15:44
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There are 2 outcomes on the table now: 1. YES to $1.68. Take the money and go. Easy and a no-brainer option. 2. NO to $1.68. If majority vote NO, the offer fails. SMRT will continue to be listed, share price may dropped as upsides are capped according to analysts. TH may have to wait for 1 year to make another offer and no guarantee that shareholders will be able to recover their price. This is what we know from the mainstream. But here are some of the alternative views not covered by the mainstream.... a) What happens if share price plunge? If share price plunge according to analysts' forecast, not only minority share holders will be affected but TH as the major shareholder will also be impacted? They had been recently reported to suffer a 9% decline in their portfolio value for the first time since 2009. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/temasek-reports-s-24b/2937334.html b) Opportunity to gauge the effectiveness of the new framework in public eyes With SMRT continue listing, we will have the opportunity to see how this new framework actually works for SMRT in terms of improving operations quality and profitability. If it is true that it does not generate good profits under NRFF, TH will be affected too? The question will go back to why would they accept the NRFF deal? c) What if, the NRFF deal is not as bad as it perceived to be? For those who are SMRT long term shareholders would know that SMRT has been pushing very hard for the NRFF deal to go through as it will benefit SMRT. Nobody would expect that this deal would turn out sour. What if, the NRFF deal really benefits SMRT in some way in the long term? In the short term, we might see some panic selling. But with all the bright spots lining up (opportunity to bid new lines with a stronger balance sheet, stronger ridership with more people giving up car and higher population target, incremental non-rail revenue due to higher ridership, possibility of fare increase), it might provide a stable amount of returns for long term shareholders even if the profit margin is capped? Is this the same logic why TH is accepting the NRFF deal? Coupled with the uncertain economic environments, funds may choose to flock to safe haven with stable returns? The transport business would fit the bill as it is highly recession proof, even during the worse financial crisis. d) No guarantee of the final offer acceptance results Even though all the analysts give an accept offer recommendation, but there is still no guarantee of the final results. Based on the recent SMRT share price performance of retreating to 1.63 range, it might also means the market is not confident $1.68 would go through as it is indeed an unattractive price contrary to what the mainstream been telling us. Many SMRT shareholders who have a comfortable margin rather sell their shares now to get some money first in case if the vote does not goes through? Buying is not as strong as expected, as many are also waiting at the sidelines to see if the price will plunge further if majority vote NO? It is a 50-50 chance now. Ultimately, all shareholders hope to be treated fairly. Wouldn&rsquo t it help if TH could offer a higher price, which will make the bitter pill sweeter and with better rate of success? But TH seems adamant not to increase the offer. This is just some alternative views. I may not be right. Every shareholder should weigh his or her own options before voting / buying / selling.
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sgng123
Supreme |
27-Jul-2016 12:59
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Be mindful u need to hold for this, smrt would be rangebound till actual DO document pop next month. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
27-Jul-2016 12:57
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That what temasek hoping too, enticing investors to buy up smrt for riskfree 2 to 3% gain lol. They don even neef to accumulate share just dump it to investors who want risk free gain lol. Most likely if volume pick up strongly then chance of success increases. Temasek save on administration fee too going this path. |
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halleluyah
Supreme |
27-Jul-2016 12:56
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ML collected 700 lots at 1.635 yesterday... |
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