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Venture
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Venture
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sharenoob1984
Veteran |
08-Oct-2018 08:55
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howcome venture dropping pre market ah? WTF? | ||||
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Luzern
Supreme |
04-Oct-2018 09:44
Yells: "9" |
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sharenoob1984
Veteran |
04-Oct-2018 09:14
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what happened to venture ah? or market as whole today? the interest hike statement? i thought if interest is up USD appreciate, is good for venture? unless it has atonne of loans? | ||||
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SgYuan
Supreme |
03-Oct-2018 11:27
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Current EW w0 15.83 to w4 16.92 w5 18.68 now in Wabc correction - you just need to see when you shorted it you will understand what mistake you make. 
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rlong8288
Master |
03-Oct-2018 11:15
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Fully Agreed..................
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SgYuan
Supreme |
03-Oct-2018 10:26
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See my chart I posted.
All the way from peak to bottom. And this 1st uptrend EW from bottom. It conform in daily chart only % different. Intraday need skill because too many sub waves. It is very difficult if many sub waves.
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sharenoob1984
Veteran |
03-Oct-2018 10:09
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yuan bro, i also realise one thing, venture does not conform to most of EW wave, what do you think?
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sharenoob1984
Veteran |
03-Oct-2018 09:23
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thanks maxbro, very impt info, was plannign to keep venture for futher appreciation, i think i better be careful now
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Maxgrow68
Elite |
02-Oct-2018 23:43
Yells: "Right and Kind. Choose Kind then you are always Right !" |
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Hot from CNBC that FDA seizes more than a thousand pages of documents in surprise inspection of e-cigarette maker Juul. FDA crackdown requires e-cig mfrs to submit plans to address youth use of their products within 60 days. Will Venture biz be affected as e-cig is major part of their products mfg too? | ||||
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sharenoob1984
Veteran |
02-Oct-2018 17:14
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thanks yuan bro! | ||||
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SgYuan
Supreme |
02-Oct-2018 16:44
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aiyo
I calculated w5 tgt 1847 end px hit 1868 - this is base on w1+w3 ×61.8% to get 1847 - px move pass and hit 1868 New in wabc. - tgt near w4 1692 wabc wave a dn 61.8% of w5 wave b up 61.8% of wa wave c dn dn 100% of wa, tgt near w4 1692 Just one more precaution of wabc break. - if wave b up hit 1868 - that mean my w5 end is wrong. Good luck to ur short.
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sharenoob1984
Veteran |
02-Oct-2018 16:20
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sgyuan bro, so now is W4? or now is after W5 abc already?
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HendriJB
Supreme |
02-Oct-2018 12:56
Yells: "Breathe, Step Back - Think " |
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R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s
COMPANY UPDATE Venture Corporation (VMS SP) PMI Investor Day Slides Offer Glimmer Of A Better 2019 Takeaways from Philip Morris Investor Day showed that IQOS device sales are picking up. Conversely, SoM growth in key markets Japan and Korea are flat or declining. The next-generation IQOS 3 sees two models being released and we are concerned about cannibalisation. Production in 2019 could be higher than currently projected, but the split remains difficult to gauge. No change to our earnings forecasts for now. Maintain HOLD and target price of S$18.20. Entry price: S$16.00. WHAT?S NEW Takeaways from Philip Morris International?s (PMI) Investor Day 2018 last week: ? IQOS kit/holder sales are picking up again. PMI made a rare disclosure of actual unit sales of IQOS in Japan from Apr 18 to Aug 18. In 2Q18, approximately 1.8m IQOS kits/holders were sold, while for the first two months of 3Q18, 1.7m units were sold. Recall in Jun 18, PMI had slashed prices for its IQOS kits by 30% to ¥7,980/unit, which could have helped sales. ? PMI shows IQOS user base to be larger than previously assumed. Previously reported figures only disclosed fully converted users, which represented 70% of total users that purchase an IQOS device. As of Aug 18, total users stood at 8.6m (2017: 6.9m), with fully converted users at 5.8m (2017: 4.7m). The proportion of fully converted users is consistent with PMI?s remarks made at its Nov 17 Morgan Stanley Conference. ? Growth in East Asian markets slowing. Share of market (SoM) for the key Japan market declined to 15.2% as of end-Aug 18 (2Q18: 15.5%). IQOS conversion rates were also down to 58% in Aug 18 (Sep 17: 65%). South Korea, which could have potentially offset the slowdown in Japan, saw its SoM increase slightly to 8.1% as of Aug 18 (2Q18: 8.0%). Conversion rate in South Korea has also fallen to 59% in Aug 18 (Sep17: 66%). ? Europe picked up the Asian slack. Partially offsetting this is a pick-up in European countries Italy, Greece and Russia, which saw their SoM increase by 0.4- 3.1ppt vs 1Q18 figures (2Q18 data was not available). ? PMI net revenue growth guidance shifted to lower end. At the start of the year, PMI had guided net revenue growth (ex-currency) at 8%. After the setback in Japan, guidance was shifted to 3-4% in its 2Q18 results. The latest deck shows guidance at ~3%. IQOS devices were guided to account for 20% of RRP net revenue this is low as historical figures have trended at 22-25% of RRP net revenues in 2016-17. Tuesday, 02 October 2018 HOLD (Maintained) Share Price Target Price Upside -1.7% COMPANY DESCRIPTION Venture Corporation is a global electronics services provider. It is a leading global provider of technology solutions, products and services over a diversified range of high- mix, high-value and complex products. STOCK DATA GICS sector Bloomberg ticker: Shares issued (m): Market cap (S$m): Market cap (US$m): 3-mth avg daily t'over (US$m): Price Performance (%) KEY FINANCIALS Year to 31 Dec (S$m) 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 4,005 4,002 3,917 457 464 419 426 434 390 373 370 334 387 370 334 136.0 130.0 117.2 13.6 14.2 15.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 9.4 9.3 10.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 9.3 9.2 8.5 (33.3) (44.1) (49.4) 18.1 16.3 13.6 - 396 418 - 0.94 0.80 2020F 3,945 416 388 332 332 116.7 15.9 2.0 10.3 3.2 8.4 (53.4) 12.7 440 0.76 25 20 15 40 30 Volume (m) 20 10 Net turnover EBITDA 253 Operating profit 208 Net profit (rep./act.) 181 Net profit (adj.) 225 EPS (S$ cent) 82.0 PE (x) 22.6 P/B (x) 2.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 17.0 Dividend yield (%) 2.7 Net margin (%) 6.3 Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) (20.8) ROE (%) 9.4 Consensus net profit - UOBKH/Consensus (x) - Source: Venture, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian Refer to last page for important disclosures. 23 2,874 2.3 3.8 (34.1) 5.0 (9.5) Major Shareholders % Aberdeen Asset Management 9.0 Wong Ngit Liong 7.1 -- FY18 NAV/Share (S$) FY18 Net Cash/Share (S$) 8.31 3.66 (%) 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Oct 18 PRICE CHART (lcy) VENTURE CORP LTD 30 VENTURE CORP LTD/FSSTI INDEX 0 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 18 Apr 18 Jun 18 Aug 18 Source: Bloomberg ANALYST(S) Foo Zhi Wei +65 6590 6626 [email protected] S$18.52 S$18.20 Information Technology VMS SP 288.1 5,334.9 3,893.8 22.9 S$29.51/S$15.90 1yr YTD 1 R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s ? Not one but two IQOS 3 products launching. The next generation of IQOS sees two models - IQOS 3 and IQOS 3 MULTI. The launch of two separate product lines ties in with channel checks earlier in April that Venture Corporation (Venture) and FLEX were separately pursuing their own next generation IQOS designs. ? PMI reports its 3Q18 results on 18 Oct 18 at 9am Eastern Time (9pm Singapore Time). STOCK IMPACT Tuesday, 02 October 2018 IQOS KIT/HOLDER SALES - JAPAN ('000 devices sold) 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 IQOS Holder IQOS Kit Source: Philip Morris MARKET SHARE IN JAPAN / S.KOREA (%) 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Source: Philip Morris IQOS DEVICES SOLD - HYPOTHETICAL (mil devices sold) 5.0 ? Volume pick-up in 3Q18 points to an encouraging 2019. Assuming IQOS device sales continue to pick up at the rate seen in 3Q18, it suggests that demand remains robust despite the falling SoM in Japan. With the launch of the next generation IQOS device, this could spur replacement demand and translate to a pick-up in IQOS 3 production volumes in 2019. Greater clarity on this will probably emerge closer in end-18. ? Device sales outpaced user base growth. Device sales of 1.8m in Japan alone outpaced global user growth of 0.6m, showing that using user growth to gauge device sales results in a gross underestimate. Extrapolating the latest data and comparing against PMI?s rule of thumb for device to heated tobacco unit (HTU) sales (330,000- 350,000 devices per incremental billions of HTU shipped) yields a fairly consistent set of device sales figures (see figure on right). Taking an assumption for inventory allowance, it is highly likely that average monthly production in 2017 was well over 1m units/month. Venture was the sole producer in 2017 FLEX?s inventories only reached market in 1Q18 based on our channel checks. 492 124 200 189 302 304 ? Presence of IQOS 3 Multi a concern. The emergence of a design variant in the IQOS 3 product line-up worries us as it verifies our earlier channel checks that FLEX was building a competing design. The design differences between both are unclear at present. With both producers likely building their own respective designs, there runs a risk that one may cannibalise demand for the other, thereby edging the other manufacturer out and taking market share from them. This could work both ways for Venture. EARNINGS REVISION/RISK ? No change to 2018-20 earnings estimates for now. Our estimates have not taken into account the new IQOS 3 production schedule. For 2018, factoring it in will result in a 1- 3% increase in earnings. For 2019-20, our estimates for IQOS production may be on the low side and we will revise when visibility emerges. For the rest of the segments, our growth assumptions are unchanged. VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION ? Maintain HOLD and target price of S$18.20, pegged to 14x 2018F PE. Upside risk could stem from a higher-than-expected production schedule for IQOS 3 in 2019, which will significantly lift earnings. Until that clarity emerges, maintain HOLD. Entry price is S$16.00. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Japan Korea 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Implied Japan Sales Unit sales based on rule of thumb Actual Refer to last page for important disclosures. 242 Source: UOB Kay Hian NEXT GENERATION IQOS 3 Source: Philip Morris 343 433 515 570 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Aug-18 R e g i o n a l PROFIT & LOSS Year to 31 Dec (S$m) Net turnover EBITDA 456.7 Deprec. & amort. 31.1 EBIT 425.7 M o r n i n g N o t e s BALANCE SHEET Year to 31 Dec (S$m) Fixed assets Other LT assets Cash/ST investment Other current assets Total assets ST debt Other current liabilities LT debt Other LT liabilities Shareholders' equity Minority interest Total liabilities & equity KEY METRICS Year to 31 Dec (%) Profitability EBITDA margin Pre-tax margin Net margin ROA ROE Growth Tuesday, 02 October 2018 2017 4,004.5 2018F 4,002.1 464.3 30.7 433.6 3.0 1.7 2.2 440.5 (70.5) 0.1 370.1 370.1 2018F 567.6 440.5 (70.5) 30.7 (1.7) 171.8 0.0 (3.2) (76.2) (79.4) 0.0 0.0 3.2 (170.8) (170.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 320.7 752.4 0.0 1,073.1 2019F 2020F 3,916.9 3,945.4 419.1 415.9 28.9 27.5 390.2 388.4 3.0 3.0 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.2 397.0 395.2 (63.5) (63.2) 0.1 0.1 333.6 332.1 333.6 332.1 2019F 2020F 409.5 389.2 397.0 395.2 (63.5) (63.2) 28.9 27.5 (1.7) (1.7) 51.9 34.6 0.0 0.0 (3.2) (3.2) (31.8) (31.8) (35.0) (35.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 3.2 (170.8) (170.8) (170.8) (170.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 206.9 186.6 1,073.1 1,280.0 0.0 0.0 1,280.0 1,466.6 2017 197.9 670.2 752.4 1,523.7 3,144.2 30.8 943.6 0.0 1.7 2,165.8 2.3 3,144.2 2017 11.4 11.1 9.3 12.6 18.1 2018F 246.8 671.7 1,073.1 1,270.7 3,262.3 30.8 862.4 0.0 1.7 2,365.1 2.2 3,262.3 2018F 11.6 11.0 9.2 11.6 16.3 (0.1) 1.7 (0.7) (0.7) (4.4) (4.4) 2019F 252.9 673.3 1,280.0 1,184.9 3,391.1 30.8 828.5 0.0 1.7 2,527.9 2.1 3,391.1 2019F 10.7 10.1 8.5 10.0 13.6 (2.1) (9.7) (9.9) (9.9) (9.9) (9.9) 1.2 1.2 (49.4) 2020F 260.4 675.0 1,466.6 1,120.1 3,522.1 30.8 798.3 0.0 1.7 2,689.3 2.0 3,522.1 2020F 10.5 10.0 8.4 9.6 12.7 0.7 (0.8) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) 1.1 1.1 (53.4) Total other non-operating income Associate contributions Net interest income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Tax Minorities Net profit Net profit (adj.) CASH FLOW Year to 31 Dec (S$m) Operating Pre-tax profit Tax 13.6 1.7 2.8 443.7 (71.0) 0.1 372.8 387.2 2017 448.5 443.7 (50.3) 31.1 (1.7) 13.8 (24.9) 36.8 (14.0) (37.0) (15.3) 0.2 Others 38.0 Financing (126.3) Deprec. & amort. Associates Working capital changes Non-cash items Other operating cashflows Investing Dividend payments Issue of shares Proceeds from borrowings Loan repayment Others/interest paid Net cash inflow (outflow) Beginning cash & cash equivalent Changes due to forex impact Ending cash & cash equivalent Turnover EBITDA Pre-tax profit Net profit Net profit (adj.) EPS 66.0 Leverage Debt to total capital Debt to equity Net debt/(cash) to equity Capex (growth) Investments Proceeds from sale of assets 39.3 72.3 (140.7) 46.2 41.7 (98.0) 24.5 308.2 474.7 (30.5) 752.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 (33.3) (44.1) 80.6 105.6 106.3 Refer to last page for important disclosures. 25 3 R e g i o n a l M o r n i n g N o t e s Tuesday, 02 October 2018 Disclosures/Disclaimers This report is prepared by UOB Kay Hian Private Limited (?UOBKH?), which is a holder of a capital markets services licence and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore. This report is provided for information only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in securities or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such securities. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any recipient hereof. 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All rights reserved. http://research.uobkayhian.com RCB Regn. No. 197000447W Refer to last page for important disclosures. 30 5 |
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HendriJB
Supreme |
02-Oct-2018 11:11
Yells: "Breathe, Step Back - Think " |
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By UOK KayHian about Venture Report
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HendriJB
Supreme |
02-Oct-2018 11:09
Yells: "Breathe, Step Back - Think " |
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Breaking News!
Venture 👉 https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/investingnote-production-webbucket/attachments/3c2fe61c29c1cd00e1fb36355bc65f279f5dc60d.pdf?1538449162 |
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SgYuan
Supreme |
02-Oct-2018 09:07
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Of course there is.
If by EW - w2 touch w1 break - w4 touch w1 recount By for this trend now It is a power EW that hit and over the EW tgt. w3 typ 161.8% w5 typ 61.8% (w1+w3) - since it is so powerful - w5 may, I say may hit 100% After this will be wabc correction. - tgt near w4 as indicated in last post. U still can wait for wabc correction. - but u have to hope it uturn fast.
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sharenoob1984
Veteran |
02-Oct-2018 08:46
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Dear Sgyuan bro, is there such a thing as cycle break because top price kept getting exceeded? also, will you be able to share your wave based on latest price? Thanks! |
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naux22
Veteran |
01-Oct-2018 20:35
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Bro Luzern.. u wan post your views in the other thread for chicken runners? Think bro sharenoob is also from there..
Thanks!!
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SgYuan
Supreme |
01-Oct-2018 19:07
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Wc ext EW end - bottom at 15.83  Uptrend EW w0 1583 w1 1665 w2 1599 w3 1768 w4 1692 w5? w1 82 w3 169 up 206% of w1 w5 155 up 61.8% of (w1+w3) tgt 1847 - px pass tgt. - once uturn, wabc start next w4 1692 No 100%. Good Luck  |
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sharenoob1984
Veteran |
01-Oct-2018 17:36
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Luzern bro, can PM me? i really noob, and need to understand why | ||||
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