| Latest Forum Topics / Vallianz Last:0.056 -- |
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Will it Break 10cents again???
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edwinjup
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24-Apr-2015 14:03
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Think my 6.5c q will fulfilled soon.....and head to my next q at 5.9c.....can bet ..just dont over bet....p.s i might cao before hit me...lol | ||||
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rewq4321
Member |
23-Apr-2015 22:04
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I can only say many flip flop on views. Towards Vallianz, I find speculation pays a big part in the price. I have reservations about the future of this company because 1) don' t know if the CEO real aim is to make it a good business. 2) huge debt 3) It keeps buying swiber' s stuff... But something I think will happen, is that their business in saudi arabia.  |
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buysellbuysell
Master |
23-Apr-2015 21:37
Yells: "someone please sell down low so that others can buy low" |
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This company deals with marine support services, which is dependent on oil price as it needs crude oil to power it' s fleet of ships. It does not have scalability to offset the running costs as in huge tankers carrying big loads of cargoes shipping across the globe and thus lowering the effects of crude oil costs involved. the geographical presence positioning of the supply and support fleets can be considered not very ideal in relation to its profits. The geographical presence is major in china and asiapac region with some South America presence. china is doing QE now with the RMB weakening and  the other asiapac currencies are also impacted by the USD appreciation.  This may result in the weakening of the profits involved in carrying these activities. Maybe could consider average your risks on this counter by considering other counters with lower prices than this counter you' re in, of course the company must have good fundamentals and good products they carry and products are in demand. The company top management leadership is also critical.   |
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RedEye1811
Master |
23-Apr-2015 19:18
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Is that true!! From Feb 1 to March 25 there is 36 trading days. Vallianz price went from 7c to 4.3c. Based on disclosures for short selling related to Vallianz, on 21 of the 36 trading days, there was no short selling recorded. For the other 15 days, the highest short selling on a single day was 1,000,000 around March 2. The total volume of shares sold short (assuming no repeats) was 5.756 million shares. Average short selling on 15 days it occured was 383,750 shares per day. Since March 26 to April 22, there has been 20 trading days. On each day there has been short selling. The sum of all short sold shares during that period is 28,588,500 shares (assuming no repeats) with an average of 1,430,000 per day with maximum of 6,699,000 on April 8. During period March 26 to April 22 price rose from 4.3c to 6.9c. So in short, during period of decline from 7c to 4.3c the number of short selling days is only 15 out of 36 with average of 383,750 per day short selling day (or approx. 160,000 per all 36 trading days). From March 26 to April 22 when price rose, short selling occurred every single trading day and averages were about 4 times that of period February 1 to March 25. So if short selling was significantly higher when price rose relative to period when price declined how can you assert it was short selling that drove price down til 4.1c as oil price dropped??    
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RedEye1811
Master |
23-Apr-2015 18:57
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Wish it was that simple. Of course cannot apply simple notion to all the stocks. But for the penny stock BBs have big influence at times of some other issues. On March 26 the interest in penny stocks (particularly with connection to oil and gas) was switched on. Just need to look at volumes that spiked in various related penny stocks (Mirach Energy, Charisma Energy, Vallianz etc). The volumes in such pennies remained strong till April 14/15 and then light switched off again. During that time Mirach rose from around 4c to 9c (125% plus increase) and Charisma from 1.4c to 3.4c (140% plus increase). Since April 15 Mirach down 20% and Charisma down 25%. At close of trade on March 25 Vallianz was 4.3c. Close on April 15 was 7.5c or 75% increase. Trading volume average for 14 trading days from March 25 to April 15 was 71,800,000 with 10 days above 60,000,000. From April 17 (ignoring April 16 as that day Vallianz halted for majority of day from about 9.30am) till today the price fallen from 0.075 to 0.67 a decline 10.667% and trading volume average is 36,600,000 with only 1 day above 50,000,000 (but not 60 mill). So Vallianz movement very similar to other O& M penny counters between March 25 - April 15 and since. Volume rocketed in first period but now 1/2. When volume was up price rocketed but now volume down so price fallen. Some could be attributed to oil but the interest of BBs and then disinterest would seem more realistic. At moment BBs seem to have switched light off so movement down seems more likely. But if Vallianz get contracts and reports good numbers then it may help to separate itself from the pack just like how Triyards has done recently. Of coz cannot attribute to every stock and case but seems like a common trend during past month.
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edwinjup
Supreme |
23-Apr-2015 18:20
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Last time some houses short until 4.1c...as oil price keep on dropping....
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RedEye1811
Master |
23-Apr-2015 18:19
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The forthcoming 1st quarter announcement is also critical. If they can show improvement in finance costs and operating margins then it would be a nice boost. From Q1 2014 to Q4 2014 the operating profit margin fell from 37% to about 34%. Not terrible but could be good if can get it back to 38% as help boost operating profit. Between Q1 2014 and Q4 2014 the finance cost rose from about 2.8 million to 11.3 million. As a result the net earnings Q1 2014 and Q4 2014 were nearly equal with later lower. For Q1 2015 the revenue of Vallianz should go up as consolidation of acquired enitites at end of 2014 will come into play. If can get operating profit margin to be 38% again, then rise in revenue will be nice bump in operating profit. Then if they could trim finance cost back to say 7.5 million rather than another increase then the net earnings would really spring despite weak conditions in oil. If that can be achieved it would be a nice catalyst. But personally doubt finance costs will be reduced but rather increase so more likely not good set of numbers. But wait and see.
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darocupcake
Master |
23-Apr-2015 18:17
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If that's the case u should attribute this to all the stocks. Sg stock especially pennies are manipulated by BB. If got interest they will push it just like any other pennies. Simple rule simple game. But Of coz with contract award price will move up at a faster rate
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RedEye1811
Master |
23-Apr-2015 18:09
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Is the share price of Vallianz truly linked to oil price? As a rough guide. At 18:00GMT on March 26 WTI oil price was USD$51.26. At 18.00GMT on April 2 it stood at USD49.16. Decline of 4.097%. Vallianz at close March 26 was 5.4c and at close on April 2 was 5.3c so decline 1.852%. At 18.00GMT on April 10 (1 week past) WTI oil price at USD$51.64 so increase 5.045% increase price oil for week. Vallianz close on April 10 at 7.0c so increase during week of 32.075%. At 18.00GMT on April 17 (1 week later) WTI oil price at USD$55.76 so increase 7.0798%. Vallianx close April 17 at 7.5c so 7.143% increase for week. At moment, on April 23 WTI oil price about USD$55.91 so increase from end of last week of 0.269%. At close today, Vallianz at 6.7c so decline of 11.667%. For period March 26 to April 23 WTI up 9.071% and Vallianz up 24.07%. It a bit of hit and miss on weekly basis to say if oil price drove rise in Vallianz stock price, In two of the weeks oil rose but Vallianz fell. In another week oil rose more 7% but Vallianz jumped 32%. Then on another both oil and Vallianz up 7%. At best current a n oil price-counter price link to oil and Vallianz is lucky to be moderate at best. Personally I do not think oil has to fall below USD$40 for Vallianz price to hit 4c again. If oil falls to USD$47-48  then  that will be spur to put it to 4c but feel that if BBs have lack of interest in penny stocks and Vallianz  fails to come out with some big contract win(s) given the talk-up at AGM, then the price will continue to float down at least to 5c and if no catalyst then toward 4c. That just my view that oil price link not so strong at moment but more BB action  or  disinterest and lack of contract announcements that are real. 
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edwinjup
Supreme |
23-Apr-2015 17:30
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Wont go back 4c..unless oil below 40
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RedEye1811
Master |
23-Apr-2015 17:23
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The trading pattern of this counter (and a lot of penny stocks) during the past 4-5 trading sessions been quite similar to when Vallianz' s price fell week after week till hit 4c....there was frequently a burst of buying in morning that sent price up a bid or two before falling off by late morning such that sellers took over and the closing price was 1, 2 or 3 bid points below the prior day closing level...the sell queue would frequently be deep up to 7-8 bid levels whilst for the buy side it was 3-4 bid levels at most...if one sums the sell volume in first 10 bid levels and that for the buy queue then the ratio of sell volume to buy volume was typically 2:1...the same pattern for that period been repeated past 4-5 trading sessions so it feels like back to that downward selling direction again because BB interest in the penny stocks gone...hence, why feel headed back to 4c low...
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edwinjup
Supreme |
23-Apr-2015 16:14
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Still yet to decide wan to cao or not...but q some at 5.9c.liao...dont rush..dont contra...just hopes...cheers
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RedEye1811
Master |
23-Apr-2015 15:58
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It may get to 6.5c today so you in with a good chance. The sell queue is heavy and buy queue thin. I still feel that in near term this counter will continue to fall further perhaps to its 52 week low again if not further. For me I not looking to get long on this counter till after it falls below 5c when feel it may get some support. If BBs start to get interested in penny stocks when it around 5c then may be ripe to grab but if no interest then 4c could be touched again. Well will see if right or wrong. Without a catalyst like more contracts this counter  going to flounder for months.
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edwinjup
Supreme |
23-Apr-2015 15:33
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Another 0.2c will hit me....
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edwinjup
Supreme |
23-Apr-2015 12:24
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Think might hit soon....6.5c...lol..may shift lower...lol
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buysellbuysell
Master |
23-Apr-2015 10:16
Yells: "someone please sell down low so that others can buy low" |
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this counter at 0.07, jaya at 0.057, sinoconstruction 0.045, which is more attractive and more potential upside ? probably need some time to consider |
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nqing87
Supreme |
23-Apr-2015 10:09
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since when??
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moron101
Supreme |
23-Apr-2015 10:04
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Also not to forget some portions of the billion-dollar contracts from SWIBER will also be outsourced to VALLIANZ.
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edwinjup
Supreme |
23-Apr-2015 08:27
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I wait to buy at 6.5c...lol..but may shift lower anytime if oil price correct...actually oil price is not cheap liao because of strong usd......
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treetops
Elite |
23-Apr-2015 08:17
Yells: "Moments Today, Memories Tomorrow!" |
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So many hundreds of million $$  contract, can handle wor??? Not a big scale company wor!
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