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Riverstone
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RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LIMITED
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msksmsks
Supreme |
09-Aug-2021 11:30
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Happy holiday We may hv differences in views/opinions but shared same goal/objective. Hope early Christmas present fm Santa for all of us Cheers | ||||
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PhillipTan
Supreme |
09-Aug-2021 00:09
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Happy holidays and long weekends 1 - Future is always unknown RHB' s estimates may seem drastic, but  you may also come up with your own TP and ASP projections too For me, I plan to sell mine once it hits 1.60-1.65 range 2 - Terms like negatively and postively are widely used and doesn' t really imply anything much, other than the direction of the movement up or down Understanding the technicality of the financial terms is more important, than looking at the terms used to describe them. It will provide a better understanding of such reports. (Eg. It is easy to understand that an increase in production will make up the shortfall in declining ASP. But does the reader really understand how does this actually works out, and why is increasing production so crucial to the declining ASP? Increased production will bring about increased revenue, but does it necessarily mean that profits will also increase too? If the reader does not know the difference between the financial terms used such as profit margin, profits, revenue etc., it is like someone who knows that the apple will fall to the ground if you let go but doesn' t understand that this is caused by gravity or why gravity exists.) 3 - I don' t disagree with this. Just saying that even with the resilience, it cannot change the fact of ASP declining. RS will still be affected by it, but not as impacted compared to others. 4 - You didn' t say it explicitly that dividends are an indication of future performance. But when you mention things like will a company pay such a high dividends if they perceive a gloomy outlook. It is an indirect suggestion that both are interconnected. I know that RS is paying more dividends, but my point is dividends paid has nothing to do with future performance. It is normal to be optimistic about one' s investment or to be hopeful about it, but it is always better to be objective. Yes, numbers can' t lie. Declining ASP is one of them. Glove counters no longer at their historical highs shortly after covid hit is another. Market will decide after new strategies made such as increased capacity or new products etc. No need to reply me too Let' s just wait and see, hope we will all profit from our investment here. Cheers.
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desmodeus
Veteran |
08-Aug-2021 19:37
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aiyo they have been talking about declining asp but the co has reported higher sales and profits every quarter since.
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FreedomAngelz
Veteran |
08-Aug-2021 18:40
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Volume * ASP in US$ = Profit 10000 * 90 = 900000 15000 * 60 = 900000  30000 * 30 = 900000 Just using an example to illustrate that falling ASP can be compensated thru higher production. |
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msksmsks
Supreme |
08-Aug-2021 15:59
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Good afternoon Whether vested or not, one shld read the analysts rpt objectively wif an open mind to determine whether any truth in it. In regards to yr comments: 1) I do not deny ASP had declined/declining  but it' s not as drastic as feared .  Perhaps ASP for RW is rather stable as opposed to other glove players as we can see fm the earnings rpt. 2) Wordings like " negatively, postiively, signifcantly" etc DOES make a difference in financial terms/industry......However, as mentioned, increased in prodn wl make up the shortall in declining ASP 。 。 。 As chinese saying goes " 拉 长 补 短 &rdquo .....Least mentioned more innovative products wl be coming on board in untapped mkts as illustrated by RS to support their earnings growth. 3) Differentiated in biz model with other glove players is being reiterated by RS which I assumed they want to demarcate the difference as most analysts are skewed twds the same application of declining ASP & dwindling demand of gloves  which in actual fact, the ASP for RS is quite resilient/stable and not as bad as most feared becz of the cleanroom stringent reqmts  and demand of their gloves doesn' t seem to falter 4)  I din  say dividend payout is an indication of future Co performance.  I only mentioned that RS had increased (more than double) the interim dividend due to vote of confidence of Co growth thus reward the shareholders with increased dividend ratio.  Pls refer to RS financial rpt  Wl a Co do that if they perceived outlook is uncertain and affecting their biz/earnings N proposed  an increased in  interim dividend payout ..... Who knows better, ?  I' m opined that RS already knew their order on hand  that can easily surpassed last FY ..  Perhaps, its clients already locked their long term order fearing shortages in supply and fluctation of prices . Nevertheless, Numbers can' t lie.....but human being can.    Only time wl tell.......Let the truth being vindicated whether to listen    to a Co whom consistently delivering free cash flow /increased in dividend with positive outlook or someone seated in office penning their research. Need not reply my msg .  we jus let the mkt decide. Cheers   
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sutiono
Veteran |
08-Aug-2021 13:07
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We will believe what   the anal ysts of RHB say only if they are appointed by the World Robber Glove Association to control and fix the ASP of the glove , otherwise their gussing figures are as good as anyone' s who has the cheek to make a wild guess !  
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PhillipTan
Supreme |
07-Aug-2021 17:02
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Yes, take all analysts' reports with a pinch of salt Instead of relying on just a single report, read from all that are being published before coming to any conclusion Referring to what you have mentioned, 1) They have been harping at the decline in ASP, and it is true ASP has been falling, ASPs are no longer at their peak RS reported a higher than average ASP, but they didn' t report that ASP is at the highest point ever  (Maybe they did, I couldn' t recall) Key words to note " average ASP" I don' t see any contradictions here 2) Report didn' t say it will severely impact RS earnings It just says earnings will be affected negatively What it actually means is that the profit margin will fall due to falling ASP, which is already a fact It means they will earn lesser with the same production capacity and costs Having higher production due to increased capacity will have nothing to do with profit margin if costs remains the same It just simply means they can have higher revenue and higher profits, even with reduced profit margin  3) Being different and having a different ASP doesn' t remove the fact that ASP for gloves across the board is already dropping Difference maybe only being the fact that their ASP will be more stable in comparison Being different doesn' t mean their ASP won' t continue to drop, but this is an uncertainty as the future is always unknown And RHB is of the opinion that it will continue to drop  4) As mentioned, profits and profit margin are two totally different things Increased profits available for distributions (ie. higher dividends) may be due to increased production capacity, not necessarily due to increased profit margin And dividends are also not linked to future performance Dividends paid are paid out from profits which is usually an indication of past performance Even if company is very profitable, they may also choose to keep the profits for future growth expansions/investments etc instead of giving out as dividends So personally, I don' t really see a very visible link between dividends and future outlook Lastly, this report is based on RHB' s estimates on ASP falling to USD 39 by year 2023 That is why they put as neutral with a low TP And as a disclaimer, I don' t work for RHB And this is my understanding of the report that I shared Personally I feel that anything below $1.30 is still a good buy DYODD though
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msksmsks
Supreme |
07-Aug-2021 16:06
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Understand where u coming fm. But the analyst can't lump all glove players as same category and different ASP wl be applied serving different purposes/industry/sector.
RS had reiterated they are being differentiated fm it's peers in the glove industry yet these analysts doesn't seem to be apprehensive . Agree tat those high baseline financial numbers may not be easily achieved(Q/Q comparison) for some glove players unlike RS which is in better position to manage tat as they still command some premium over their products. Last but not least , RS still sanguine on the biz outlook which is great. Cheers |
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grateful
Senior |
07-Aug-2021 15:31
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Agree with you on some points, but the analysts are providing earnings forecast 1-2 years ahead.  ASP a year ago before the pandemic (Jan-Mar 2020) and  peaked in 1Q 2021 (Jan-Mar 2021) Glove manufacturers may have increased their production capacities, but may not be able to meet the high base financial figures they recorded from 2H 2020... from Jul 2021 onwards with the declining ASPs.    If consumers like us are unable to pay for the high-priced gloves, demand will drop and naturally the ASPs will decline.  But incumbent glove manufacturers like Riverstone will continue to enjoy good margins as the ASPs are still a lot higher than pre-pandemic days, and Riverstone has the competitive edge in cleanroom gloves. Electronics manufacturing sector will be doing well with 5G. 
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msksmsks
Supreme |
07-Aug-2021 14:59
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Read this report with a pinch of salt as I find it biased and unreliable namely:
1) All these while, most anal*ysts hv been harping abt the decline in ASP yet RS reported an impressive set of result with higher ASP which contradicts their findings. 2) Even if ASP may decline, it wl not severely impact RS earnings as opposed the rpt saying it wl be affected negatively. On the basis of decline in ASP ? Why he din think of the ramp up prodn and other innovative products coming on board soon. 3) RS has reiterated that their biz model is differentiated with it's peers in glove industry being the leader serving the clean room for both tech and healthcare sector thus ASP wl be different too . 4) Last but not least, RS is sanguine abt it's outlook thus increased its interim dividend. Wl a Co do that if they perceived outlook is gonna be gloomy as what the analyst had projected. Who knows better, ? Yr guess is as good as mine..... listening to a Co whom consistently delivering free cash flow /increased in dividend with positive outlook or someone seated in office penning their research Hv faith n hold on to good & undervalued stock. Too cheap to ignore Hopefully, RS wl also consider putting themselves into international arena for secondary listing to enhance shareholders value . Cheers
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PhillipTan
Supreme |
07-Aug-2021 13:58
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RHB stays ' neutral' on Riverstone on downtrend in glove pricesDespite a ' strong' set of 1HFY2021 ended June earnings, RHB Group Research has kept its ' neutral' rating for Riverstone Holdings with an unchanged target price of $1.30.In an August 6 research note, RHB' s Singapore research team says Riverstone' s 1HFY2021 results were in line with their estimates, with the company reporting a surge in earnings on higher average selling prices (ASPs) and volumes. But looking ahead, the team anticipates earnings will be negatively impacted due to a weaker ASP outlook for gloves. " We believe that long-term glove consumption growth remains solid due to higher hygiene awareness globally. However, we believe ASPs have peaked in 1QFY2021 due to rising competition from the new supply of gloves in the market," the team explains. The team also highlighted the company' s plan to complete Phase 7 of its expansion for FY2021, which will increase its capacity by 14% to 12 billion pieces per annum, up from its current total capacity of 10.5 billion pieces per annum. The team discloses that its earnings estimates incorporate blended ASP assumptions of US$65 ($88), US$50 and US$39 per 1,000 pieces of gloves for FY2021, FY2022 and FY2023 respectively. Shares in Riverstone closed 6 cents or 4.96% higher at $1.27 on August 6.   |
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msksmsks
Supreme |
06-Aug-2021 14:55
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May all short, medium and long term holders all Huatt
Cheers |
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boringguy
Member |
06-Aug-2021 14:50
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i already collect at 1.19 and 1.20....will hold it and enjoy dividend...
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sutiono
Veteran |
06-Aug-2021 14:45
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How many company with such solid financials are being traded at this valuation ? | ||||
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beng1102
Elite |
06-Aug-2021 14:38
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Bought another round at 1.26.  Now finger crossed.
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Midtermer
Master |
06-Aug-2021 14:31
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If you count the potential dividend payout for fy2021, the price will likely adjust north in the near future also the dividend yield will be double digit. RS key differentiation between gloves company as mentioned by many is that it is a major player for cleanroom gloves. Dyodd.
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msksmsks
Supreme |
06-Aug-2021 14:16
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Current pricing is too cheap to ignore given it' s undemanding valuation , attractive dividend payout and sustainable growth for years to come As mentioned before, wuld reiterate that RS wl adjust its price to it' s equilibrium in due course. Cheers  |
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beng1102
Elite |
06-Aug-2021 13:47
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I am buy more at 1.26 as this is the 2nd time it touches 50MA and like to cross.
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msksmsks
Supreme |
06-Aug-2021 13:03
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oic.......tat was the time when malaysia imposed MCO followed by EMCO thus causing the selldown as pple' s perpection that RS prodn wl be affected.  But in reality, there isn' t much impact as  u can see fm their sterling result .  In fact, they did  announce that the MCO merely affecting 2% of their annual prodn which is quite benign.    Hope clarifies. Cheers 
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beng1102
Elite |
06-Aug-2021 13:01
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Valuation is compelling.  Must buy again.
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