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Turtle.soup Member	18-Nov-2016 10:04        Turtle.soup About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	this is the shittest i have in my bag... sian...
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SuperLuckyCorn Supreme	18-Nov-2016 09:45        SuperLuckyCorn About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Interesting. ^_^ Wonder will the 4th telco survive. Hmm...4th telco, may have to dump $$ with the others . Confirm..heads got problems? Just4win      ( Date: 17-Nov-2016 14:56) Posted: DBSV... with the confirmationn of the 4th telecom... Our TP for M1 is S$1.97 implying 4% downside risk. We project M1&rsquo s mobile revenues to contract by 24% from 2015 level with a 31% drop in earnings by 2022. We do not think M1&rsquo s current dividend yield of 6.1% is sustainable and project it to decline to below 5% by 2022.
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Qanghoo Supreme	18-Nov-2016 06:56        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Starhub, besides having to contend with the fourth telco,  is already having a headache with Stel  muscling into its previously monopolistic pay tv offerings.  In fact, both Starhub n Stel are also gonna face an even tougher competition from the  mushrooming of other tv boxes, offering almost anything that both these telcos can, at far cheaper prices (apparently, much of the offerings originate from overseas, but have replicated carriage of many stations n/or programmes streamed by Starhub).  Ironically, this has been made possible by the not-too-old fibre broadband network which offers affordable multimedia streaming, including  via feeds from almost  anywhere in the world, at breakneck speeds probably not thought  possible  one, two  decades earlier.  So, while fibre broadband has opened up new opportunities for the telcos, it has radically widen n deepen the competitive landscape for them too.    Starhub keeps sending me messages to tye me down to a new period contract for pay tv, but I keep ignoring them.
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kuanyew Member	18-Nov-2016 01:51        kuanyew About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Definitely agree with you that many variables and factors affect company' s performance and the valuation model itself. No doubt about that.  But that wasn' t the point I was making. The issue is with it being way too off, and I highlighted that in red below.  For conservatively pricing in a 100% probability of 4th telco entry, DBSV could give a TP of $3.65. In hindsight, of course, this is a joke - and you guessed it, they' ve taken it off their site. Point is: take it with a pinch of salt.    jeremyow      ( Date: 17-Nov-2016 19:40) Posted: The problem always with forward projections in analyst reports is that there are so many variables and factors in the macro-economic and business environment that can affect a company' s performance in future. Forward projections always are based on a set of assumptions taken and assumptions may be proven correct or also wrong as well over time. I remember last time there were analyst forward projections of Comfort Delgro Group' s performance will be good quoting a set of impressive numbers in the performance of the group. Little did anyone know that some years later, new entrants into the private hire transport such as Uber and other players will challenge the operating climate and performance of the taxi business segment for the group. Luckily reduced fuel costs helped to mitigate the fall in earnings for this business segment of the group. Who would have guessed back then that the oil price crisis will happen to hit around the same time also providing some relief for the taxi business? Also, I remember some years back analyst reports mentioned the office commercial REIT industry will face challenges in rental incomes coming under pressure due to upcoming oversupply of offices and poor economic environment. The unit price of office REITs were being beaten down by investors back then. Fast forward to today, the unit price of office commercial REITs generally have risen back and no one mentions this issue anymore as the office space supply and demand seems to have balanced back. Some office commercial REITs have even expanded their net lettable space by asset enhancement initiatives over recent few years. There are far too many changing variables and factors in the business climate and forward projections of any kind seems to suggest that one has a crystal ball to peek into the future to know for sure how things will turn out in future.           kuanyew      ( Date: 17-Nov-2016 18:39) Posted: i don' t trust DBSV. they' ve had an extremely poor track record analysing telcos. just take a look at their previous target prices and valuation assumptions. " Upgrade M1 and Singtel to BUY. To derive our new TPs, we conservatively assumed 100% probability for a 4th telco (versus 80% earlier) and modelled 10% adverse impact on M1&rsquo s revenue in 2022 (previously:14% in 2020), 4% adverse impact on StarHub&rsquo s revenue (6% previously) and 1% adverse impact on Singtel&rsquo s revenue. We upgrade M1 to BUY with revised DCF based (WACC 6.8%, terminal growth 1%) TP of S$3.60 (from S$3.65) implying 8% upside potential and 6% yield. " https://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=t& rct=j& q=& esrc=s& source=web& cd=14& ved=0ahUKEwiD1eKRpq3QAhUMr48KHZXpA3UQFghaMA0& url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dbs.com.sg%2Ftreasures%2Faics%2FpdfController.page%3Fpdfpath%3D%2Fcontent%2Farticle%2Fpdf%2FAIO%2F150609_insights_Telecom_SMRT.pdf& usg=AFQjCNFSMuiTxcPSeDnm9rr5-O3Yyn6DOw& sig2=87E3AmcO4t8vy9qLTo0nFg& bvm=bv.138493631,d.c2I& cad=rja
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jeremyow Master	17-Nov-2016 19:40        jeremyow About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Passionate business investor"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The problem always with forward projections in analyst reports is that there are so many variables and factors in the macro-economic and business environment that can affect a company' s performance in future. Forward projections always are based on a set of assumptions taken and assumptions may be proven correct or also wrong as well over time. I remember last time there were analyst forward projections of Comfort Delgro Group' s performance will be good quoting a set of impressive numbers in the performance of the group. Little did anyone know that some years later, new entrants into the private hire transport such as Uber and other players will challenge the operating climate and performance of the taxi business segment for the group. Luckily reduced fuel costs helped to mitigate the fall in earnings for this business segment of the group. Who would have guessed back then that the oil price crisis will happen to hit around the same time also providing some relief for the taxi business? Also, I remember some years back analyst reports mentioned the office commercial REIT industry will face challenges in rental incomes coming under pressure due to upcoming oversupply of offices and poor economic environment. The unit price of office REITs were being beaten down by investors back then. Fast forward to today, the unit price of office commercial REITs generally have risen back and no one mentions this issue anymore as the office space supply and demand seems to have balanced back. Some office commercial REITs have even expanded their net lettable space by asset enhancement initiatives over recent few years. There are far too many changing variables and factors in the business climate and forward projections of any kind seems to suggest that one has a crystal ball to peek into the future to know for sure how things will turn out in future.           kuanyew      ( Date: 17-Nov-2016 18:39) Posted: i don' t trust DBSV. they' ve had an extremely poor track record analysing telcos. just take a look at their previous target prices and valuation assumptions. " Upgrade M1 and Singtel to BUY. To derive our new TPs, we conservatively assumed 100% probability for a 4th telco (versus 80% earlier) and modelled 10% adverse impact on M1&rsquo s revenue in 2022 (previously:14% in 2020), 4% adverse impact on StarHub&rsquo s revenue (6% previously) and 1% adverse impact on Singtel&rsquo s revenue. We upgrade M1 to BUY with revised DCF based (WACC 6.8%, terminal growth 1%) TP of S$3.60 (from S$3.65) implying 8% upside potential and 6% yield. " https://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=t& rct=j& q=& esrc=s& source=web& cd=14& ved=0ahUKEwiD1eKRpq3QAhUMr48KHZXpA3UQFghaMA0& url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dbs.com.sg%2Ftreasures%2Faics%2FpdfController.page%3Fpdfpath%3D%2Fcontent%2Farticle%2Fpdf%2FAIO%2F150609_insights_Telecom_SMRT.pdf& usg=AFQjCNFSMuiTxcPSeDnm9rr5-O3Yyn6DOw& sig2=87E3AmcO4t8vy9qLTo0nFg& bvm=bv.138493631,d.c2I& cad=rja Just4win      ( Date: 17-Nov-2016 14:56) Posted: DBSV... with the confirmationn of the 4th telecom... Our TP for M1 is S$1.97 implying 4% downside risk. We project M1&rsquo s mobile revenues to contract by 24% from 2015 level with a 31% drop in earnings by 2022. We do not think M1&rsquo s current dividend yield of 6.1% is sustainable and project it to decline to below 5% by 2022.
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kuanyew Member	17-Nov-2016 18:39        kuanyew About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	i don' t trust DBSV. they' ve had an extremely poor track record analysing telcos. just take a look at their previous target prices and valuation assumptions. " Upgrade M1 and Singtel to BUY. To derive our new TPs, we conservatively assumed 100% probability for a 4th telco (versus 80% earlier) and modelled 10% adverse impact on M1&rsquo s revenue in 2022 (previously:14% in 2020), 4% adverse impact on StarHub&rsquo s revenue (6% previously) and 1% adverse impact on Singtel&rsquo s revenue. We upgrade M1 to BUY with revised DCF based (WACC 6.8%, terminal growth 1%) TP of S$3.60 (from S$3.65) implying 8% upside potential and 6% yield. " https://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=t& rct=j& q=& esrc=s& source=web& cd=14& ved=0ahUKEwiD1eKRpq3QAhUMr48KHZXpA3UQFghaMA0& url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dbs.com.sg%2Ftreasures%2Faics%2FpdfController.page%3Fpdfpath%3D%2Fcontent%2Farticle%2Fpdf%2FAIO%2F150609_insights_Telecom_SMRT.pdf& usg=AFQjCNFSMuiTxcPSeDnm9rr5-O3Yyn6DOw& sig2=87E3AmcO4t8vy9qLTo0nFg& bvm=bv.138493631,d.c2I& cad=rja Just4win      ( Date: 17-Nov-2016 14:56) Posted: DBSV... with the confirmationn of the 4th telecom... Our TP for M1 is S$1.97 implying 4% downside risk. We project M1&rsquo s mobile revenues to contract by 24% from 2015 level with a 31% drop in earnings by 2022. We do not think M1&rsquo s current dividend yield of 6.1% is sustainable and project it to decline to below 5% by 2022.
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Just4win Supreme	17-Nov-2016 14:56        Just4win About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	DBSV... with the confirmationn of the 4th telecom... Our TP for M1 is S$1.97 implying 4% downside risk. We project M1&rsquo s mobile revenues to contract by 24% from 2015 level with a 31% drop in earnings by 2022. We do not think M1&rsquo s current dividend yield of 6.1% is sustainable and project it to decline to below 5% by 2022.
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haizzz Senior	17-Nov-2016 14:51        haizzz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This one each time mention 4th telco only it will practise its swan dive...easy to short.
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john_ric Supreme	17-Nov-2016 14:36        john_ric About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	no posting on this.  quiet. nobody wants to talk about this sad counter.
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pinkowl Supreme	11-Nov-2016 21:42        pinkowl About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yah lor. Means buy already must quickly sell. Lol. But trading patterns always change one. Not so lucky to have consistent patterns all the time lah. SuperLuckyCorn      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 18:22) Posted: Ee?? if this pattern is consistent, then u can Huat easily. pinkowl      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 15:46) Posted: This M1 makes my heart pain. Everytime I buy, the next moment it will surge. But a few days later, it will plunge. ( Now it looks like it' s going to drop further. :~(
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investshare Supreme	11-Nov-2016 21:11        investshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Anyone want to use this plan? M1 unveils upsized plans for data hungry consumers Data can be extended up to 36GB every month. Singapore telco giant M1 launched two new data options under their Upsized data plans to allow consumers to meet the growing demand for video streaming and apps. Two new options are available for data hungry consumers. One option is adding additional 4GB to 24GB and 2-month mySIM plan data bundles under Upsized Data Plus. Upsized Data Super, on the other hand, allows the extension of 6GB to 36GB ever month to their data bundle. Plus subscription will cost $11.80 a month while Super will have a monthly charge of $17.70. The two options are available to new, recontacting, and in-contract M1 customers. M1 Chief Marketing Officer P. Subramaniam said this is the best value and choice for data bundles. "In addition to enjoying their enlarged data bundle in Singapore, M1 customers will also be able to use their data bundle at 48 overseas destinations from just S$10 a month with our unique M1 Data Passport offering,? he said.
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SuperLuckyCorn Supreme	11-Nov-2016 18:22        SuperLuckyCorn About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ee?? if this pattern is consistent, then u can Huat easily. pinkowl      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 15:46) Posted: This M1 makes my heart pain. Everytime I buy, the next moment it will surge. But a few days later, it will plunge. ( Now it looks like it' s going to drop further. :~(  SuperLuckyCorn      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 15:36) Posted: Cool..pinkpink also here. ^_^
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pinkowl Supreme	11-Nov-2016 15:46        pinkowl About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This M1 makes my heart pain. Everytime I buy, the next moment it will surge. But a few days later, it will plunge. ( Now it looks like it' s going to drop further. :~(  SuperLuckyCorn      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 15:36) Posted: Cool..pinkpink also here. ^_^ pinkowl      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 15:23) Posted: Just4win busy shopping today. LOL.
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SuperLuckyCorn Supreme	11-Nov-2016 15:36        SuperLuckyCorn About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Cool..pinkpink also here. ^_^ pinkowl      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 15:23) Posted: Just4win busy shopping today. LOL.
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pinkowl Supreme	11-Nov-2016 15:23        pinkowl About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just4win busy shopping today. LOL.
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Just4win Supreme	11-Nov-2016 15:20        Just4win About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I am here kapo kapo... not vested.   Looking at Singpost now... down to below $1.5 soon SuperLuckyCorn      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 15:14) Posted: Ee..nice to see u here. ^_^ Ha..i never trust broker & analyst. Just4win      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 10:15) Posted: lol... that is why I am not so optimistic in this line. My broker keeps on recommending Singtel... TP > $4.   Luckily I did not follow. Prefer to watch sideline for these few counters
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SuperLuckyCorn Supreme	11-Nov-2016 15:14        SuperLuckyCorn About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ee..nice to see u here. ^_^ Ha..i never trust broker & analyst. Just4win      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 10:15) Posted: lol... that is why I am not so optimistic in this line. My broker keeps on recommending Singtel... TP > $4.   Luckily I did not follow. Prefer to watch sideline for these few counters SuperLuckyCorn      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 09:14) Posted: The 4th telco...may be will never come. If we look at the structure carefully, 4th telco is only wasting people resources and create " not useful" consumption. In short, if 4th telco come...then need to be careful,bcos the head already cannot think properly. To compete, 3 telco is more than enough. If 3 cannot, what make them think 4 can. They need to give us the reason why 3 cannot & 4 can...
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Sporeguy Elite	11-Nov-2016 10:15        Sporeguy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Why LKY forced Singapore to have only 3 local banks ? So 3 Telcos more than enough so that they can be big enough to expand oversea. haizzz      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 09:19) Posted: Tiny country need 4 telcos...?
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Just4win Supreme	11-Nov-2016 10:15        Just4win About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	lol... that is why I am not so optimistic in this line. My broker keeps on recommending Singtel... TP > $4.   Luckily I did not follow. Prefer to watch sideline for these few counters SuperLuckyCorn      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 09:14) Posted: The 4th telco...may be will never come. If we look at the structure carefully, 4th telco is only wasting people resources and create " not useful" consumption. In short, if 4th telco come...then need to be careful,bcos the head already cannot think properly. To compete, 3 telco is more than enough. If 3 cannot, what make them think 4 can. They need to give us the reason why 3 cannot & 4 can... desmondquek      ( Date: 09-Nov-2016 21:08) Posted: Could the 4th TELCO be delayed till Q2 Q3 of 2017?
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dc16888 Master	11-Nov-2016 09:37        dc16888 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	saw all ' 7' . singtel low @3.77, m1 2.07, starhub 3.07.
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