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CapLand Ascendas RE
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I think share price going to U turn
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wavehunter
Supreme |
14-Dec-2023 08:48
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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 Bravehearts who want to chase and do BUY HIGH SELL HIGHER, all the best to you. It may well be a case of Who Dares, Wins. The next Area of Resistance is at 2.89 to 2.93. Her indicative opening price is now 2.85. Upside is 2.93. That' s 8 cts. Downside is 2.79. That' s 6 cts. So its about 50 :50. Except that those 8 cts on the upside is something not seen for a long time. The more conservative ones amongst us can sit it out and wait for Ascendas to show us where her new trading range is first. Then trade that range when she comes down to the bottom of her new trading range to consolidate. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
14-Dec-2023 08:31
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2023 08:54
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Yes, to frontrun and jump in now is for bravehearts to do BUY HIGH SELL HIGHER. This comes with a risk premium. The reward is a couple of bids as the next leg up can possibly reach 2.93. If prefer to play it safe, then sit out the next upmove and let Miss Ascendas show us where is her next trading range. Once she has reached the top of her new range and is out of breath, she will come down to consolidate. Then you date her. I was hoping she will go back down to her 2.70s and 2.60s again. That would be the easiest to trade her. Now that she has done a breakout at 2.87, we dunno if this breakout is real and she will keep going all the way to 2.93 OR this is just a false breakout to trap those who trade breakouts and rush in. So the next best scenario to hope for is she pulls back all the way to 2.79 to backtest her former resistance-now-turned new support. If she do that, I may well roll the dice and open a small position to ride on her. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2023 08:53
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
12-Dec-2023 16:42
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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One of the possible scenarios.... . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
12-Dec-2023 16:07
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Ascendas reached 2.88. Previous Area of Reistance was 2.84 to 2.86. So we have a breakout today. TA-wise, that Area of Resistance at 2.84 to 2.86 has become a new Area of Support. What next? Possible scenarios are: 1. This is a false breakout. If so, she will go back down to her previous range at 2.79 to 2.86 and 2.84 to 2.86 becomes an Area of Resistance again. 2. She has a breakout and any pullback is just temporary. When the pullback ends, she will resume her upmove towards her next Area of Resistance at 2.89 to 2.93. 3. She has a breakout and will now pull back to backtest her new Area of Resistance-now-turned-Area of Support. This backtesting can be all the way to 2.79 or to 2.86 or to any point in-between. The timing of this breakout is, I think, not by coincidence but very much intended. Tonite at 8.30pm, US CPI Data will be out. Then on Thu morn at 2.30am, Powell will most likely announce to the world that the rate hike cycle has probably ended. But as always, Powell may also leave the door open for more rate hikes if necessary, adding they will be data-dependent. These events are catalyst for markets to go higher. Tomorrow may well be a crucial day and decision time for us to decide whether to board the boat or remain at the pier. Becoz Wall Street' s reaction to Powell' s speech will come from 2.30am on Thu morn when our market is closed. If that reaction is positive, prices will be firmer here in the STI when our market open on Thu morn. Which is why tomorrow may well be the last opportunity to board, for those who wish to board. In which case it will be a lot easier if she can retrace all the way to 2.79 tomorrow. It will be easier, really. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
12-Dec-2023 12:36
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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There is one group of people in the market who are feeling very, very uncomfortable today. People in this group are starting to be very, very worried and are in a dilemma whether to wait or to do something. Who are these people? Those who frontrun the market and have been opening SHORT positions. I have heard this sentence before - for a sailor, there is no greater fear than being in a submarine which is under attack by a destroyer dropping depth charges repeatedly to annihilate you. I suppose in the context of the stock market, there is no greater fear than to have collected lots and lots of SHORTs in the genuine belief that the market will fall next but only to realise you have walked into a trap set by a King Kong and you discover you are a prey being hunted by a predator who will do a massive SHORT squeeze. Price action over the last 3 weeks is compelling me not to discount the possibility that a shift in Ascendas' trading range has already taken place just that we dunno it yet. We will know only after she reaches for the sky and breaks 2.86 to show us a new level which leaves us eyes big big and mouth big big. Those who are brave and love mountain climbing can do BUY HIGH SELL HIGHER. But those who are more cautious can wait for the pullback after that to come and go first. Then move in with their trolleys. Tonite 8.30pm local time, US CPI Data will be out. Thu morn at 2.30am here, Powell will inform the world whether pause or another hike. Fed is mindful that US economy is slowing down as the effect of a high interest rate environment starts to bite more deeply into business activity. So most probably Fed will pause. Then what next? Market will explode to the upside? And this will be followed by Ascendas (and other REITs too) exploding upwards to break their respective resistance levels? I can already visualize that. And if so, 2.79 to 2.86 will become the new support level. She broke her Area of Resistance at 2.84 to 2.86 and has reached 2.87. Looks like Ascendas wont show us 2.70s and 2.60s anymore. The next pullback to the low 2.80s is where each of us will have to decide whether to board the ship or remain at the pier. But if I am wrong and she shows us the 2.70s (or 2.60s), I will be happy to be wrong. But provided I did not already use up all my bullets. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
12-Dec-2023 10:16
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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The King Kongs of Wall Street may well have been busy last 2 or 3 weeks collecting stocks. If so, we also dunno. We will know only after markets have moved higher. Then when we look back to connect the dots, we realised that was the reason why market did not drop. Becoz the King Kongs were collecting. That' s why it is true that when King Kongs are in ACCUMULATION phase, we the retail small frys are in CONFUSION phase. So I guess it is not wrong for us to greet each other ........ Happy Confusing.  If the next thing to happen is Ascendas turn on her rocket boosters to blast off to break her Area of Resistance at 2.84-2.86 to reach 2.88/2.89, then her current consolidation zone, ie. 2.79 to 2.86 will become the new Area of Support. Meaning if she goes to 2.88-2.89 or higher and then come back down to backtest her new Area of Support at 2.79 to 2.86, if you have been following my discussions here and you understand what I have been saying, you will know what to do. And I will leave it at that. 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
12-Dec-2023 09:58
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
12-Dec-2023 09:13
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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 Shake head. Market can go either way from here. If market chooses to go higher, there is money to be made for those who dare to chase. If you chase, you will not be doing BUY LOW SELL HIGH. You will be doing BUY HIGH SELL HIGHER. If market goes higher, it cant keep going higher. There will be a point where it has to come down to consolidate. Bravehearts can try BUY HIGH SELL HIGHER. Conservative ones can wait for that consolidation to participate in the market. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
11-Dec-2023 09:01
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Important Events this week.... Tue, 12 Dec - US CPI Data out at 8.30pm Spore time. Tue & Wed, 12-13 Dec FOMC Meeting. Powell will make a press statement at 2.30am on Thu morning Spore time. Market largely expect CPI data to show prices retreated somewhat or remained at about the same levels. Hence, it is widely expected that Fed will not raise interest rate in this Dec FOMC Meeting. Will market be quiet and subdued while waiting for these 2 events or will market run ahead first based on expectations of lower inflation and no rate hike? We wait and see. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
07-Dec-2023 13:05
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Falling back on my trading history, on the basis that I am a good contra indicator of market direction at times, I think its about time for this neither here nor there shadow boxing to end soon. And if all turn out well, Ascendas should make a move towards her 2.70-series. This has happened to me many times in the past. The counter I am eyeing is range trading. And the range trading was sibeh ku. All this while when I didnt do anything, my stock did a yo-yo from top to bottom and bottom to top and this went on and on and on for sibeh ku. And after watching her do that yo-yo for sibeh ku to a point that I was convinced not to waste it but to profit from it and so I went in to BUY when she was at the bottom of the trading range expecting her to continue her yo-yo and go back up to the top of the trading range. For so long, she faithfully yo-yo up whenever she was at the bottom. Like clockwork. But the moment I decided to move in to BUY, she stopped her yo-yo right there and then. And continued to fall to begin her shift to a lower playing field leaving me stuck up there high and dry. NABEH.  We have been seeing her at 2.80 to 2.84 largely for 2 weeks now. And I was thinking why not tikam her at 2.80 for chicken run and run road at 2.82 to 2.84 for cheap thrill. I was already at the stage where I was tempted to do this chicken run. And then I reflected on my trading history and recalled all those occasions when she early dont shift late dont shift but Phian Phian when I decided to tikam her current trading range that she chose to pick that very time to begin her shift to a lower trading field and left me stranded up there. Becoz of the above, therefore I say I think the end of her current yo-yo is coming soon. And I hope to see her shift her trading range to a lower playing field - the 2.70s. Ofcoz she can also shift UP instead towards 2.90. If the monkey is willing, anything is possible. But gutfeel says more likely down than up. If the monkey wants to go up, it would have happened last week or the week before. That' s what my gutfeel says. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
06-Dec-2023 09:59
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Sis Halle, For Treasury Bills, we must wait for maturity to redeem. For SSB, upon redemption, we must wait till the 1st or 2nd of the following month to get our money back. That' s way too long and mean if a buying opportunity comes, I will miss it. Coz got bola but no capital. Anyway, these instruments all pay less than 4% interest, right ? My army.... becoz I did not put in Treasury Bills, FDs, SSB etc... and my boys were ready to go into the battlefield at the snap of my fingers, they made more than 12% return on capital for me this year. So on hindsight, not locking up my army in Treasury Bills, FDs and SSB etc has given me more bangs for my bucks. |
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halleluyah
Supreme |
06-Dec-2023 09:23
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it can be fr weeks or months wth tis tight range...tats why i said need to diversify yr $$$ into other area too n dun just die die waiting fr tis seow jie n mit only....wasting time...
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wavehunter
Supreme |
06-Dec-2023 09:10
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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I guess its going to be another boring and nothing-to-do day. Its lidat one. BUY & HOLD game is a super duper sibeh boring way to invest. But if you do it right, 90% probability you will make money. And you will be in the 10% of people who make money in the stock market. Trading....intraday, intra-week, intra-month...whatever. You jump IN and OUT...very exciting. When make money, sibeh song. When lose money, sibeh siong. Yes, you will make. And sometimes when you are on a roll, you will make and make. Until you think you can never lose. Then one day, when you least expect it, PayBack Day comes and the market takes back all your profits. Plus some of your capital. You will feel sibeh beh kam guan. Mana Eh Sai Ah Mee Khwan one...you will say. And so you will continue trading. Becoz you beh kam guan mah. You think you can still do it this way and win. And yes, you will still win from time to time. Sometimes win a few times in a row. Until PayBack Day comes again. Then you give back everything you have made. Plus some of your capital. Those of you who have walked this road before.... you can connect right away with what I said. You know exactly what I mean. Only 10% of traders make money. The rest dont. But if you do it the BUY & HOLD way, yes, you will be bored to tears. But you will be in the 10% of people who make money. So what do you want to be ? Bored, but you make money. OR.... not bored, but you lose money. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
05-Dec-2023 15:01
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Ascendas typically report her results on the last week of Jan 2024 or 1st week of Feb 2024. Dividend is between 7 and 8 cts and XD is 5 trading days after result day. A good time to buy her is from 1st and 2nd week of Jan especially if she is trading sideways. If she is falling, stand aside and let her fall first. If she is rising, wait for a pullback to come and then watch what our neighbours are doing during the pullback. She will usually firm up in the month of Jan in anticipation of results and dividend. If your entry level is right, you will make more than 8 cts from her Result cum Dividend Run. Dont wait for XD. Counting from her pre-XD Swing High to her post-XD Swing Low, the pullback can be 10 cts or more. The pre-XD Swing High is sometimes reached before Result Day and sometimes on/after Result Day. Becoz of this, to wait for her result to sell may not necessarily enable you to sell at/near the Swing High. If you see a paper gain of 8 cts or more, you have already done better than a long term BUY & HOLD investor who hold for years or decades. Anything above 8 cts is a bonus. And your mindset should be one of " Dont be greedy. Get ready to take profits" . But first, there are still 17 trading days to go in Dec. Lots of time for her to run up or run down during this period. If the monkey so dictate. .  |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
05-Dec-2023 09:51
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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US CPI Data is on 12 Dec at 8.30pm Spore time. FOMC is on 12 to 13 Dec and Powell will make a press statement at 2.30am Spore time on 14 Dec. A pause will mean that the rate hike cycle has ended and from here, rates will remain higher for longer until inflation has retreated to 2% or to whatever level the Fed deems SONG enuf for them to start talking about when to cut rates. Yes, we could get a rally. But that is also the time of the year when fund managers have already Siew Kang and are on vacation with their families or gurfrens. Whether it is a good time to ignite a rally or to surprise the market by pushing prices down to set the stage for the next accumulation exercise is entirely up to how the monkey wants to play this game. We can only wait for the story to be written. If she moves down, we already know what to do. Her 2.60s is the 1st BUY ZONE. If she wants to revisit the 2.50s and 2.40s, that is a buying opportunity not to be missed. But if she wants to take her playing field to a higher level, I will usually sit it out and wait for her to show us where her new trading range is first. After that then we move in with our equipment and trucks to erect a tentage to set up shop and draw up our Battle Plans on how to trade. If she moves up, the gungho ones amongst us can roll the dice with a small trade to satisfy your hunger and appetite for thrills and spills.
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wavehunter
Supreme |
05-Dec-2023 09:34
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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If you are one of those who bought when she sailed to the southern most tip of India and sold at 2.82 to 2.84 when she reached Bay of Bengal and was blessed to have profits to count and now you are feeling fed up and frustated that she is stuck at 2.80 to 2.85 and wondering when will her next window of buying opportunity open up to us, and if you think that' s CHUM for you, what about those who are stuck at 2.86 to 2.93 for 3 to 8 months now and are wondering day after day whether to cut now and take the small loss and be done with it OR to continue to LOON in the hope that her next move will be an upmove to 2.95 for them to get out unscathed but if her next move is back down towards her 2.60-series, then how ? Chiak Lard. Dilemma Dilemma. Compare the two situations and ask yourself having to wait for a BUY window is more CHUM or stressing over whether to LOON on or to CUT now is more CHUM ? And you will count your blessings. |
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chewch1
Member |
05-Dec-2023 08:18
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Bro wave, any key dates to look for? Do you think 12 Dec will be a time as FOMC and US CPI data is out? Maybe it will result in a rally? Or any other rates that Ascendas report dividend / business results.. | ||
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wavehunter
Supreme |
04-Dec-2023 13:37
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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