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Black Gold Industry Discussion
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earlybird14
Supreme |
07-Oct-2014 09:27
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The answer is making loss. No doubt about that.
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Lucky03
Elite |
07-Oct-2014 07:51
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Congestion at ports is getting worst. Partly due to lager ships and partly growth. Ultimately affecting productivity and volume being cleared. Will have to see how these congestion affecting liners such as NOL as some begins to impose extra charges for congestion.
Congestion worsens at LA-LB port complex with no relief in sight Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor | Oct 06, 2014 5:44PM EDT Congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach grew worse over the weekend, with no relief in sight as peak-season container volumes descend on the largest U.S. port complex. ?The vessels keep arriving and the trucks keep arriving,? said John Cushing, president of PierPass Inc., which manages the extended gates program for the 13 container terminals in the port complex. Cushing said terminal operators are spending millions of dollars and taking extraordinary steps, including running very costly ?hoot owl? shifts from 3 a.m. to 8 a.m. to relieve congestion in their container yards, but the cargo keeps building up at the terminals. Each terminal operator has a slightly different story to tell. Some terminals say the congestion ebbs and flows depending upon chassis availability. A terminal will get enough chassis for several consecutive days to clean out its yard, but then the equipment supply dries up and the terminal is congested again. ?There are times when the imports are not moving. The numbers are outrageous ?6,000 to 7,000 containers just sitting at the terminals,? he said. Another terminal operator said he is working only two cranes each week against a vessel with a capacity of 10,000 20-foot containers, rather than five cranes as he should be, because the yard can not absorb any more boxes. Vessel operations are slowing down to the point where some terminals are in danger of having to tell vessel operators to slow down their arrivals because the ships can not be handled on schedule. Large North American gateways such as Los Angeles-Long Beach, New York-New Jersey and Vancouver, Canada, have been struggling with congestion problems on and off throughout the year. The ripple effect of brutal winter weather in the eastern half of the continent, congestion and rail car shortages on the rail networks, truck and driver shortages and chassis dislocations are well documented. In Southern California, truckers and terminal operators point to chassis being in short supply, in the wrong place at the wrong time or chassis being out-of-service as being the main culprit. ?Chassis are the Achilles? Heel here,? said Fred Johring, president of Golden State Express and chairman of the Harbor Trucking Association of Southern California. Ocean carriers earlier this year exited the chassis business in Los Angeles-Long Beach and New York-New Jersey, selling the assets to chassis leasing companies. Terminals on both coasts immediately began to report that they did not have enough chassis, not because the overall supplies in the harbors were reduced, but because the business relationships involving cargo interests, shipping lines, terminal operators and chassis providers had changed. Suddenly, truckers were told by a terminal that the chassis they needed were no longer being stored at the terminal, so the truckers had to make an extra trip to a location where the chassis suppliers stored the equipment. In instances where a terminal had chassis, many more chassis than usual were being ?red-tagged? as being out of service and in need of repair. Terminal operators say the chassis providers are refusing to pay the suddenly high repair costs that terminals with International Longshore and Warehouse Union labor are charging, or the chassis providers would only authorize repairs during the 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. day shift to avoid overtime pay. Chassis providers say they are authorizing repairs as quickly as they can, and have indicated to the ports that there are not enough skilled mechanics at the terminals to do the work. As containers back up at the terminals, ILWU labor is working overtime just to do the normal work of unloading vessels, cleaning out the yards and processing trucks into and out of the facilities. According to figures posted on the website of the Pacific Maritime Association, the container volumes handled in Los Angeles-Long Beach in August were up 1 percent from August 2013, but the man-hours paid by the terminals were 20 percent higher. Citing those numbers, PMA President Jim McKenna said, ?when we?re using 20 percent more labor to do 1 percent more volume, we?re doing a lot of work.? McKenna put the problems at the ports squarely on the shoulders of the chassis issue. ?The root of all evils in the harbor is the chassis shortage,? he said. The extra moves that longshoremen must make each day to clean up the container backlog are sucking up skilled labor, and terminals are reporting that the PMA has begun to rationalize the dispatching of positions like top handlers and rubber-tired gantry operators. Those positions can not be handled to part-time workers, known as casuals. The extra work is also forcing terminals to use a higher percentage of casuals for driving yard tractors and other positions they can fill, but productivity normally drops when the percentage of casuals increases. Terminal operators say a shortage of truck drivers both in the harbor area, and at the warehouses in the Inland Empire 50 miles from the ports, is causing the dwell times for containers and chassis to skyrocket. Alex Cherin, executive director of the Harbor Trucking Association, said the HTA saw the driver shortage surface several years ago as a result of the clean-trucks program in Southern California. The truck and driver population of mostly owner-operators went from 15,000 to less than 10,000 as non-compliant trucks were phased out. HTA took actions such as helping to develop a driver training program at a local community college, but the overall problem was masked by the economic recession. Now that the recession is over, the driver shortage is all too apparent, he said. ?You hear more about it on the drayage side, but it exists throughout the industry. It?s a national problem,? Cherin said. As a result, hundreds of chassis with empty containers are sitting idle at the 1.5 billion square feet of warehouse and distribution facilities throughout Southern California, effectively taking the chassis out of use. Trucking companies say the beneficial cargo owners are so desperate to get their inbound loads that they are telling drivers not to bring the empties back to the harbor and be forced to wait two hours or longer to be processed, but rather to go ?bobtail? right to the harbor as soon as the inbound containers are cleared for pickup. Terminal operators confirm that the number of dual transactions (empty container into the terminal and loaded import container out of the terminal) have plummeted. Cushing said that PierPass is meeting with chassis providers, truckers, shipping lines and terminal operators in an attempt to work out at least a short-term solution to problem. After having met with executives of the three largest equipment providers ? Direct ChassisLink Inc., Flexi-Van and Trac Intermodal ? PierPass was told a long-term solution to the chassis problems will not materialize until early 2015, Cushing said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @billmongelluzzo |
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Lucky03
Elite |
07-Oct-2014 07:42
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SeaIntel: WTO forecasts don?t reflect container trade growth
Grace M. Lavigne, Associate Web Editor | Oct 06, 2014 6:51PM EDT Growth rate figures from the World Trade Organization appear to be an underestimation of growth in container volumes, and as a result, SeaIntel Maritime Analysis still expects global container demand growth to be 4 percent to 6 percent in 2014, despite downward revisions to WTO forecasts. In April, the WTO released forecasts for world trade growth of 4.7 percent in 2014 and 5.3 percent in 2015, signaling positive expectations above the 20-year average from 1993 to 2003 of 5.2 percent, SeaIntel said. However, last month, the WTO revised its forecast downward to 3.1 percent in 2014 and 4.0 percent in 2015. By comparing data from Container Trade Statistics from January to July with trade growth forecasts for exports and imports from the WTO, ?it is clear that significant discrepancies abound between the WTO trade growth forecasts and the year-to-date container volume developments,? SeaIntel said in its report. While WTO has revised its growth rate to 3.1 percent for 2014, global container volumes from CTS for the first seven months of the year have shown 5.1 percent demand growth, according to SeaIntel. ?Furthermore, it appears that the peak season has been quite strong also in August, so this number is likely to be maintained,? the analyst said. North American exports are expected to show 3.7 percent trade growth in 2014, according to the WTO, but CTS data shows negative volume development year-to-date, according to the analyst. Conversely, the WTO forecasts very slight export growth from South and Central America, although container statistics show growth rates of 6 percent to 7 percent. In terms of imports, WTO predicts a slightly negative growth of less than 1.0 percent in 2014 for South and Central America, but CTS data shows a larger decline of 5.3 percent. ?It is indeed negative to see a downward revision to the trade growth in 2014 and 2015 ― and should this outlook be correct, it will undoubtedly have an effect on container volumes as well,? SeaIntel said. However, it also shows that the growth rate figures the WTO use, which are based on financial value of merchandise goods, appear to be an underestimation of the growth in the containerized volumes, and from this perspective, we find no reason to adjust our expectations of 4 to 6 percent global container demand growth in 2014.? Contact Grace M. Lavigne at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter: @Lavigne_JOC. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
07-Oct-2014 07:15
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US shippers temper volume growth but see higher rates
Mark Szakonyi, Senior Editor | Oct 06, 2014 1:30PM EDT U.S. shippers expect volume growth through their supply chains over the coming year to be less than previously forecast, but they are ready to fork over far more money to ship freight as rates for nearly all modes rise. Shippers surveyed by Wolfe Research in August and September said they expect volumes on average to rise 2.8 percent over the next 12 months, a deceleration from the 3 percent to 4 percent gains they expected in the last three quarters. The acceleration of U.S. imports through the U.S. West Coast before the International Longshore and Warehouse Union contract expired July 1 could have taken some of the thrust out of shippers? future restocking plans. Tougher year-over-year comparisons also likely played a part in shippers? tempered expectations for freight growth. About 35 percent of shippers said their current inventory levels are higher than a year ago, compared to 47 percent of those surveyed who said the same last quarter. Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed said inventory levels were flat, while only 28 percent said their stocks were down from last year. Surveyed shippers expect truckload and intermodal volume to see the healthiest growth among all transport modes, with executives planning to put 4 percent more freight on intermodal trains and trucks hauling full loads. Executives at shippers expect railcar, ocean shipping and other domestic ground volume to rise 3 to 4 percent over the next 12 months. Shippers continue to expect intermodal freight growth despite a decreases in service, resulting mainly from cargo backlogged during the winter and uptick in total traffic, Wolfe Research noted. Trucking companies? difficulty hiring and keep qualified drivers, coupled with rising demand, is pushing up rates. More than 85 percent of surveyed shippers said truckload capacity is tight, and 70 percent of the executives expect capacity to tighten further over the next 12 months. according to Wolfe Research. ?As a result, shippers in our survey are being forced to increasingly use brokers to find capacity,? according to the report. Even though shippers expect peak season growth, many are planning to pay surcharges for truckload services during the period. Forty-two percent of shippers expect peak season volume to be flat, while slightly less than half of those surveyed expects less than 5 percent increase. Only 6 percent of those shippers surveyed expect peak season volume to rise more than 5 percent year-over-year. Judging by shippers across the board expectations, Wolfe Research forecast peak season volume will rise 1.6 percent year-over-year. While peak season isn?t slated to be robust, 52 percent of surveyed shippers plan to pay peak surcharges to move their truckload freight, and 37 percent of them plan to do the same for ocean freight. ?Typically we don?t hear about peak season surcharges for truckload, but we assume this means shippers expect to pay extra for surge capacity this year,? the report said. While surveyed shippers have more moderate freight growth expectations for the next 12 months, their expectations on how much it will cost to move the freight is at the highest point in three of years. The roughly 600 shippers with a total transportation budget of more than $10 billion forecast their shipping rates, excluding fuel surcharges, will rise 3.7 percent over the next 12 months. The surveyed shippers told Wolfe Research, a New York-based investment research firm, in the second quarter they expected a 2 percent on average gain in pricing, and shippers were bracing for a 2.6 percent rate rise a year ago. Expectations of higher rates for all transportation modes, except domestic air transport, are driving shippers to increase their transportation budgets. Shippers said they saw the sharpest pricing increases during the second quarter in truckload services, with rates rising on average 3.4 percent. ?Expectations for truckload rate increases are now the highest amongst all modes at 3.4 percent after 14 quarters where expectations for (railcar) rate increases outpaced that of truckload rates,? Wolfe Research said in the report. ?This is also the highest expectations for (truckload) rate increases since the first half of 2011.? Wolfe Research added that shippers? expectations for railcar rate pricing (3.1 percent) was the highest in five quarters, ?as the railroads are dealing with capacity constraints into recent strong volume growth.? U.S. railcar volume is up 3.5 percent this year through September, according to the Association of American Railroads. Contact Mark Szakonyi at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @szakonyi_joc. |
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
06-Oct-2014 09:25
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Trying its level best to stop sinking, but finding the going very tough.
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Davidson
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05-Oct-2014 23:41
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Hello Expert, so this giant direction is sailing or sinking? Any advise.Thanks | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
05-Oct-2014 22:27
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I wish I know the answer for Q3 result. I'm eagerly awaiting. Some analysts are still expecting NOL to deliver a loss for 2014. Maersk is one of the very few staying profitable. It has managed to continue to lower its cost to survive the ever lower freight rate. It probably is one of the reasons why freight rate continues to drop as it increases its capacity and enjoy the significant savings of the bigger ships and in the process, increasing its market share too. I want to see how if any NOL is reaping significant cost savings from its latest fleet of larger ships and G6 alliance. Its utilization factors in fact increased from about 90% to 95%. Well, we are less than 26 days away to have the chance to check it out again. | ||||
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Heero78
Veteran |
05-Oct-2014 20:19
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SCFI declined sharply to 935.81 in 26/9/2014. In last financial report, average SCFI in 2Q14 is 1100. At 1100 already cannot make money, do u seriously think Q314 will be profitable? i really doubt so. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
05-Oct-2014 19:24
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Sorry, this used to be a small circle and info are posted as a continuation of previous posts. There are a few info being discussed - freight rate, over supply of ships, trade volume, cost cuttings due to lower bunker cost and more fuel efficient and larger ships being put out to sea, alliances, M&A, restructuring, etc.
NOL has taken delivery of all of its new purchase and we are monitoring its fleet as we expect it to also return more of those older, smaller and less fuel efficient ships that were chartered at high rates. The number of fleet listed at http://www.nol.com.sg/wps/portal/nol/aboutus/ourbrands/apl/aplfleet and updated as at 19 Sep 2014 is 100. The number listed at http://rstgapl.apl.com/wps/portal/apl/!ut/p/c5/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os3h_d0tnd3cLI3d3EwMnA08_AxMfN29LA1NHc_1wkA4kFRauXgYGnuZOfi5Grl6G7q6mEHkDHMDRQN_PIz83Vb8gOzvN0VFREQCQgcdQ/dl3/d3/L2dJQSEvUUt3QS9ZQnZ3LzZfT0c5Q0dHODJHOEVKMDBJN0JORDJFSjFHNTE!/ which was updated as at 20 Sep 2013 s 126. So net reduction is 20 ships over last 1 year to a fleet of 100 ships even as it took in 10 new builds in 2012, 14 new builds in 2013 and 10 new builds in 1H 2014. NOL has retired or returned 31 ships in 2012, 14 in 2013 and 14 in 1H 2014. It has indicated to reduce another 6 in 2H 2014 and 14 more in 2015. Apparently, it has accelerated the return of the 6 ships for 2H 2014 in Q3 2014. Sorry if I gotten into even more statistic than to give you a straight answer as to buy or not. I can only say I'm eagerly looking forward to its Q3 result to be released on 31 Oct. it performed badly Q3 2013 citing one of the worst peak season then. It was still profitable for Q3 2013 nonetheless. Economic performance and trade volumes for Q3 2014 so far has proven to be quite respectable and encouraging. How NOL performs will remain to be seen.
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Know-Your-Stuff
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05-Oct-2014 16:39
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Bro lucky, u placed so much info until i catch no ball. Possible to explain in layman terms ? So NOL can buy or not ?
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Lucky03
Elite |
04-Oct-2014 09:39
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APL list of ships updated on 19 Sep shows 100 ships and that's less than the 106 listed in Jun update. So, NOL has returned (cost saving) another 6 ships in last quarter ? | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
04-Oct-2014 09:22
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The urge to set a minimum rate to replace GRIs which had not been successful to arrest the falling and unrealistic freight rate is making more noises around. Hope TSA succeeds.
THE Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (TSA) is now recommending that shippers accept set rate contracts for 2015-16 rather than scheduled general rate increases (GRIs). Friday, 03.Oct.2014, 20:08 (GMT) TSA seeks to end rate hikes, urges acceptance of minimum price contracts THE Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (TSA) is now recommending that shippers accept set rate contracts for 2015-16 rather than scheduled general rate increases (GRIs). Such a change would provide rates for 20-foot and high-cube 40-footers that reflect cost of loading and handling, said the Oakland-based quasi conference. It would also promote full recovery of rising intermodal costs due to inland transport capacity and congestion problems, said TSA. Also included would be a revised bunker surcharge formula that more accurately reflects current vessel size and fuel consumption and recovery of low-sulphur fuel costs as tighter emissions standards take effect in January, it said. In its rate release for 2015, the carrier group has said that instead of implementing GRI on the rate included in the tariff. it will recommend a base rate guideline. The TSA says it wants its members to conclude 2015-16 contract rates at levels at or above US$2,000 per FEU to the US west coast and $3,500 to the east coast from all north Asian ports. For southeast Asia, the objective is $2,150 per FEU to the west coast and $3,650 to the east coast Intermodal base rates will vary by destination, but as an example TSA is proposing 2015 container yard rates to Chicago-area ramps to be at least $3,900 from north Asia and $4,050 for southeast Asia. TSA members include APL, "K" Line, CSCL, Maersk, CMA-CGM, MSC, Cosco, NYK, Evergreen, OOCL, Hanjin, Yangming, Hapag-Lloyd, Zim and Hyundai Merchant Marine. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
03-Oct-2014 00:05
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Trans-Pacific lines launch new pricing approach as costs mount
Greg Knowler, Senior Asia Editor | Oct 01, 2014 11:56PM EDT HONG KONG ? Carriers on the trans-Pacific have unveiled a bold new pricing approach to the 2015-16 contract season that will establish minimum rate levels and improve the bunker fuel cost recovery mechanism. Member lines of the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) said they were facing significant cost and operational challenges on the Asia-U.S. trade as they manage inland rail and truck capacity shortages, and sharply higher mandated fuel costs beginning in 2015. ?Carriers feel an urgent need in the current market environment to view pricing differently,? said TSA executive administrator Brian Conrad. Among the changes adopted by TSA?s 15 member lines: Contract rate objectives for 2015-16 rather than scheduled general rate increases (GRIs) from varying baseline levels rates for 20-foot and high-cube 40-foot containers that more fully reflect cost impacts in loading and handling full recovery of rising intermodal costs due to inland transport capacity and congestion issues a revised bunker surcharge formula more accurately reflecting current vessel size and fuel consumption and recovery of low sulfur fuel costs as tighter emissions standards take effect in January 2015 for vessels operating in North American coastal waters. ?Rate minimums are an effort to better reflect actual costs of service, rather than simply recommending a specific increase to whatever baseline rate is in the tariff based on short-term supply-demand conditions,? Conrad said. ?Rates will continue to fluctuate with the market according to origin-destination pairs, service requirements, routing and so on, but a common base guideline is essential for lines to maintain basic service levels and, beyond that, expand their offerings based on customers? needs.? The TSA is recommending that its members seek to conclude 2015-16 contract rates at levels at or above $2,000 per FEU to the West Coast and $3,500 to the East Coast from all North Asia ports. For Southeast Asia, the objective will be to achieve rates at or above $2,150 to the West Coast and $3,650 to the East Coast. Intermodal base rates will vary by destination, but as an example the TSA is proposing 2015 CY rates to Chicago-area ramps to be at least $3,900 from North Asia and $4,050 for Southeast Asia. Member lines last month announced a push for the 10th general rate increase in 10 months as Asia-U.S. spot rates continue to fall. The TSA filed intentions for a $600 per 40-foot container general rate increase, effective Oct. 15, on all cargo from all origins and destinations earlier this month. The TSA began a rate restoration program in January, aiming to raise cumulative rates by $300 per 40-foot container unit by the end of the year. The string of GRI pushes reflect a volatile market of fluctuating demand and general overcapacity. While carriers have relied on GRIs to push spot rates, their impact has been limited, with rates slipping several week after the initial pricing bump. Minimum rates for other equipment sizes have also been revised upwards. Base rates for 20-foot containers (TEU) will be assessed at 90 percent of FEU rates. High-cube FEU base rates will be charged a premium of at least $50 over the 40-foot standard rate for the West Coast and $100 over the 40-foot rate for all other destinations. The TSA said these changes reflect the greater cost impacts from the handling of different container sizes as load and discharge patterns in port become increasingly complex and time-sensitive. Also being adjusted are bunker fuel surcharges. New MARPOL sulfur oxide emission rules take effect on January 1 2015, which the TSA said was expected to add hundreds of millions of dollars in additional financial impact to carriers. The new recommended contract rates will have a low sulfur fuel cost recovery component, which would be announced in the next several weeks. ?We are studying the various fuel components very closely,? Conrad said. ?The stricter 0.1 percent emissions mandate, requiring a shift to costlier marine gas oil (MGO), is of special concern because it will hit the trade all at once and no one can predict just yet where prices will settle. That in turn makes it difficult to adapt our existing formula, but we expect to have a clearer picture closer to January 1, in time to announce a charge with the necessary advance notice.? Maersk Line has announced low-sulfur surcharges of up to $160 per 20-foot container on the North Atlantic and lesser amounts on other trade routes to offset the cost of complying with regulations requiring ships to switch to cleaner fuels in 2015. All vessels sailing through so-called Emission Control Areas ― the Baltic Sea, the English Channel, the North Sea and 200 nautical miles from the American and Canadian coasts ― must switch to fuel with a sulfur content of 0.1 percent on Jan. 1 from the current 1.0 percent limit as the U.S. and the European Union adopt an International Maritime Organization regulation. Maersk Line said recently its annual fuel bill will increase by $200 million based on the current $270 per ton higher cost of low-sulfur marine gas oil compared with heavy fuel oil. Contact Greg Knowler at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Oct-2014 23:08
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This is game changer ! As long as the ship sails, it will be a profitable one.
Transpacific container lines aim for rate minimums in 2015 - 16 contracts By Marcus Hand from Singapore Container lines on the transpacific trade are aiming for minimum rate levels in 2015 ? 2016 in the range of $2,000 to $3,650 per feu from Asia to the US. The Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (TSA) is moving away from general rate increases (GRI) to contract rate objectives for 2015 ? 2016 annual contracts. TSA is recommending its members seek minimum rates of $2,000 per feu from North Asia to the US West Coast and $3,500 per feu from North Asia to the US East Coast. From Southeast Asia to the US West Coast the recommended minimum is $2,150 per feu and $3,650 to the US East Coast. There will varying levels minimum for different inland destinations for example North Asia to Chicago would be $3,900 per feu and from Southeast Asia $4,050 per feu. For 20-foot boxes rates will be assessed at 90% of the feu rate. ?Carriers feel an urgent need in the current market environment to view pricing differently,? said TSA executive administrator Brian Conrad. ?Rate minimums are an effort to better reflect actual costs of service, rather than simply recommending a specific increase to whatever baseline rate is in the tariff based on short-term supply-demand conditions.? TSA has rolled out multiple GRIs this year but with little success in raising overall rate levels. |
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spore1
Supreme |
01-Oct-2014 21:09
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seems bearish. may test 85 cents then 80 cents.
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hem2998
Veteran |
01-Oct-2014 19:07
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Technically. .broke double bottom | ||||
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earlybird14
Supreme |
01-Oct-2014 17:12
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Maersk is going to order more vessels because they are running profitable level with present freight rate. This is what NOL cannot achieve. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13238294-43e8-11e4-8abd-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3EslqaKe3 Maersk Line is preparing to defend its crown as the world&rsquo s biggest container shipping company by market share by announcing its first orders of new vessels in three years. The Danish company, owned by the AP Mø ller-Maersk conglomerate, will spend $3bn a year from 2015-2019 on new ships, improving existing vessels and other investments. Sø ren Skou, Maersk Line&rsquo s chief executive, said the company would need the equivalent of 30 ships, each capable of carrying 14,000 20-foot containers between 2017 and 2019. http://www1.chineseshipping.com.cn/en/indices/scfi.jsp Container freight rate is sinking instead of steady. It drop much faster than bunker fuel.
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Trespasserx
Senior |
01-Oct-2014 14:21
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No worry lucky03... I appreciate your analysis on NOL.. Looking at current price to average down.. Good luck on NOL
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Oct-2014 14:16
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Bear with me. 1 more posting :) It's worth trying .... signing off ... ) till NOL hits above $1.28 !
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Heero78
Veteran |
01-Oct-2014 13:55
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hahaa....u can try and see...who knows
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