| Latest Forum Topics / KrisEnergy |
 Post Reply
|
|
KrisEnergy
|
|||||
|
halleluyah
Supreme |
18-Jan-2018 08:55
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
waiting fr coming results bah... | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Siwomp
Supreme |
18-Jan-2018 08:54
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Candlestick shows hesitation, but positive. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
Siwomp
Supreme |
17-Jan-2018 14:29
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Is there any latest analyst report to share? Can' t seem to find any. Probably that explains why the price is still depressed. Wonder which institution have the " balls" to issue a favorable report first. Till then, accumulation oppotunities are they to be grab. DYODD
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
T-Gunner
Member |
17-Jan-2018 14:20
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Believe this counter is set for a good 2 months reversal upwards. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Siwomp
Supreme |
17-Jan-2018 14:00
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Oil price will likely stay high due to impending Aramco ipo. Higher oil price, means higher valuation and more interest. At this high oil price all the oil producing countries are probably making more $ althought they are pumping less oil. The hedge funds would have also reversed their oil hedge (noticed the steep gradient in oil price chart). So ya, Kris is probably out of the woods and deserved a re-rating to hold or accumulate. IMHO DYODD. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
Siwomp
Supreme |
17-Jan-2018 13:53
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
So in summary, its still the same theme. As long as oil price stays high, > US$60 for WTI Kris should be alright to meet all expenses, capex, etcs. At WTI > US$71 Kris will be extremely comfortable and have the ability to build cash to redeem the 2024 notes in cash. Cashflow should not be a problem with the credit line from DBS and their lower than expected capex and of course with Keppel and Ah Gong' s money. And if oil price can stay high and perhaps increasing, this will trigger a reversal in hedge positions by Funds and perhaps FR will reverse their position or stop sell? DYODD.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sbscap
Master |
17-Jan-2018 13:17
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Luzern, please accept my apology for being rude. I'll refrain from such comments in future. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
TraderBen
Supreme |
17-Jan-2018 12:18
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
if u look at the charts.. the last few 40m plus volume, all going downtrend after that.. wonder how will this time be.. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
sbscap
Master |
17-Jan-2018 09:06
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
You are just trying to talk the stock down with false info. The so-called loan are the bonds due 2024. Have you ever wonder why the warrants are expiring 2024? I' m sure you will tell me the warrants will expire worthless. This is the last time I' m going to respond to you.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sbscap
Master |
17-Jan-2018 09:02
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
WL, thanks for your posts. I just want to add that according to my sources, Kris did some hedging, resulting in poorer realized prices historically. Oil was in contango until Nov last year when it reverted to backwardation. With this backwardation, much less hedging, if any, should result in better realized prices. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
WL123456
Supreme |
17-Jan-2018 02:36
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
based on $2 below brent quote, its really generous and if its realised, should allow kris energy to sell their crude at an even higher price historically. :)
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
WL123456
Supreme |
17-Jan-2018 02:32
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
To look at the potential of kris energy in 1H2018 , we can take a look at the realised price of kris energy vs brent oil prices. In Q2 2015, when brent is @ USD$68bbl, the realised price of oil and gas of kris energy was around usd$63 and usd$42 respectively. Kris energy has always used the benchmark of brent to compare against their realised oil and gas prices during presentation. With the exception of Bangora gas field(held constant at usd2.32/mcf) the realised O & G prices has more or less move in tendem with brent crude prices. (Refer to kris energy presentation for this info). However with gas only accounting for 13% of the kris energy revenue, the focus should still be on production and sales of oil. With brent crude now at usd$69/$70 bbl, we should expect the realised price to rebound back to the region of usd$60(based on a discount of 14%-15% off brent crude on a 3 year avg based on kris energy realised oil price vs brent crude chart). Infill drilling at at 6 new wells at wassana field is more or less completed and production is schedule to start Q1 2018 (which is now). This should decrease the lifting cost at wassana field to the region of usd$11-$12 and ramp up production in oil which will contribute to the revenue.As the group operating cost is largely fixed for producing assets, the developement at wassana should decrease the average lifting cost bbl. Kris energy has identified cost saving as one of its main strategy going forward so at an average oil price of usd $46.87 bbl which gives it a loss per share of 1.7c, i am pretty sure the next Qtr report should see EPS of kris energy at either around 0.5c loss per share to 0.5c earnings per share. Debt wise, the notes which matures in June 2018 should be extended by DBS Bank on the back of a good run on current oil oil prices and DBS being now the sole lender of kris energy. Current credit facility is not fully drawn and access to capital is guranteed till 2024. Keppel Crop (Temasek), now being the largest shareholder, should be able to extend capital access if required. With a net gearing of 61.8%, its only 11.8% higher than the industry standard of profitable O & G companies (based on EY report). Gearing should decrease with increasing profitability. Spending on Capex is now mainly confined to 45.3% for producing assets and 48.1% for non producing asset under developement . Capex for non producing assets should decrease once drilling for Thailand & Cambodia begins in Q4 18 and Q1 19. With OPEC agreeing to extend oil cuts till end of 2018, the outlook of oil price should remain postive going forward. Expected US increase in shale production is of about 700k-800k barrels a day should be absorbed easily by the expected increased in global demands of crude in 2018 of 1.5mil bbl per day. (JP Morgan). However , the US shale expected production in 2018 will be likely compromise due to basins such as the Bakken struggling to increase production (ABN AMRO) so crude prices should continue to hoover around the $65-$70 region which should benefit kris energy in 2018 going into 2019. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
Siwomp
Supreme |
17-Jan-2018 00:01
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
So much learning today. Appreciates all the sharing. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sheerluck
Supreme |
16-Jan-2018 23:48
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
KRIS' s oil is based on Dubai Crude pricing with no discount except for those from their Wassana field due to quality issue. The discount was high initially but has been decreasing steadily. Their average oil sale price is about US$3 below Dubai crude which in turn is generally about US$2 below Brent. The average of Brent in the month of Oct-Dec 2017 is about US$61.5 and Dubai crude is about US$59. We may see KRIS Q4 average oil sale price around US$56. Lifting cost was affected by well mechanical issue at their Wassana field. At one point, it escalated to a high of US$24. KRIS is now sorting out their Wassana field so hopefully we can see lifting cost come back to the low US$10 range in second half of the year. With an average sale price of US$56, I think KRIS is still some distance away from being breakeven. If Brent can average US$70 for the whole of Q1 2018 with average sale price of US$65, then KRIS will come nearer. Cashflow will always be a teething issue until both production and oil price are higher than current. You should check what is their planned CAPEX, what has been spent so far and is the Q3 cash balance enough for the remaining CAPEX. If they did spent according to their budget, they will need to borrow more. However, it is likely that they will experience delays and will not spent all that they budgetted for for 2017. So when will KRIS see light? Based on their revealed planned production, 2019 Q3 assuming Brent stayed near US$70.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
SgTrader17
Elite |
16-Jan-2018 22:24
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
One thing I got caught today was it's initial lows of 10.5cts and trading around 10.5 to 10.7cts initially for quite a while. Volume was also low at the first hour or so. Then afternoon session came to surge, 10.8cts broken, past 11cts and even hit 11.3cts. Volume was extremely high today. Oil has been increasing for a long period of time, FR has stopped giving sales report since Nov 2017. Why suddenly today reverse course and decided to run? And brakes don't seems to work today as usually will be pump and dump in a day. Many ppl sold open positions when it hit 11cts? And got caught and need to buy back at 11.3cts? I just don't understand why suddenly so huge volume today. Will tomorrow be same high volume or maybe back to around 10,000,000 shares or lower? I am in no rush to sell, since already hold my 12cts portfolio for a few months. Maybe will add little by little if any pull back. Had done a few rounds of coffee money between 10.2cts to 10.9cts trades. Today's broken 11cts caught me by surprise, but I welcome it, as I had a 30% portfolio of KrisEnergy at about 12cts. Vested. 201huat! | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
WL123456
Supreme |
16-Jan-2018 21:55
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Agreed . It ran too late for Ezra but hopefully for Ezion and others , it?s not too late .
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
GuavaXF30
Elite |
16-Jan-2018 21:37
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Oils plays are defintely on the way up after being held down for these last few years. It' s just too bad that it came too late for Ezion, Ezra and others that just ran out of cash. But those that are still around, the glory days are coming back. At the end of the day, as woth all investments, those with durability and stamina always wins out. Which is why, NEVER CONTRA. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sbscap
Master |
16-Jan-2018 20:48
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
One can value a company like Kris based on DCF computations, which rely on assumptions, the key ones being production volume, lifting costs and achieved prices. Alternatively, one can value the EV of its 2P or 3P reserves and deducting liabilities. Both valuation methods give different figures and both values are much higher than its current price. That' s how I came up with 21c and I welcome alternative valuations from any of you. It is actually higher but I will sell at 21 because this is ultimately a small cap and it is listed in SGX (SGX discount). Maybe 22 or even 23 is possible if Kris is able to secure more oil fields in Indochina and if oil price exceeds 80. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
SgTrader17
Elite |
16-Jan-2018 20:14
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
If KrisEnergy runs with Oil prices, there will be ups and downs. I also didn't expect today's run up as i had contra two small trades early at 10.6cts and 10.9cts for small coffee profits while still holding on to my main batch of Kris energy which bought a few months ago at average price of 12cts. Always will keep the main waiting for the main push to come, though I am not sure when it will be, since it had ups and downs so many times and as low as below 9cts and ppl happily shouting for 8cts back then. I just kept my Holdings and wait out since all already fully paid for. Recent small trades give some good coffee money. See if it will continue the uptrend from here or profit taking sets in. Dyodd. Vested.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Siwomp
Supreme |
16-Jan-2018 19:42
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Good news for all vested. Huat Ah! | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||