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SIA
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SIA
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sgng123
Supreme |
22-Feb-2017 23:55
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Push up at closing with like 500k volume most likely short cover, it crazy to see bb restraining sia trade while covering at closing. Basically made sia unappealing to trader for reasons unknown . |
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sgng123
Supreme |
22-Feb-2017 18:30
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Anyway PE valuation not reliable for growth stocks, just take a look at our banks single digit pe but noone wanna push them higher to 15x. PE valuation good gauge for those stable earning companies like st eng, sia eng , telecom etc. Using PB valuation safer as sg companies had good track record in reporting assest value. |
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pasttime
Supreme |
22-Feb-2017 11:25
Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou." |
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can go higher if they have the right team. sale is the food of the company. airline seats are perishabe that is expire once the lane got off. sale need to work a lot lot harder to sell those seats that is empty when the place took off. even if each seat is $1. SIA earn $1 more right to the bottom line |
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investshare
Supreme |
21-Feb-2017 17:58
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But SIA should not enjoy higher PE as China is a high growth market.
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sgng123
Supreme |
21-Feb-2017 16:45
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What air china book value, it might be just a shell since it supported by state fund. It might be trading at 3x 4x or 5x it book value, anything happen investors capital go up in smoke. |
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investshare
Supreme |
21-Feb-2017 13:30
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Fr Bloomberg: => SIA is expensive
At 10.2 times estimated earnings, Air China?s Hong Kong-traded shares are the most expensive since mid-2015 after rallying 18 percent over the past year. That valuation looks cheap, though, when compared with Singapore Airlines Ltd.?s ratio of 22 and the overall Asia Pacific air carrier index?s 13.2 times projected profit. Air China?s shares jumped 2.3 percent Monday to their highest level since September. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
21-Feb-2017 02:58
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They could do share buyback but they did not this time round compared with 2013 to 2014 poorer profit. The fact they are on expansion mode scare off ah moh funds and hold off local support till more certainty . They could also unlock value in SIA eng 77% holding to all investor by redistributing sia eng share, Lastly temasek might be planning a eventual delisting for SIA so no sharebuyback to artificially pop up shareholder value.  |
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leongyan
Master |
20-Feb-2017 08:32
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Lowest was 9.58 in the last 12 months so SIA is trending near to the bottom line. Before that SIA was able to achieve 11.7x share price. Mgt need to raise shareholder value and share price. Not an easy task
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sgng123
Supreme |
20-Feb-2017 03:05
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SIA oil hedge loss stood at US $1.17B for 2016, hedge loss from Apr 16 to Dec16 365M. The oil hedge bet can boost profit by a huge margin if SIA bet on higher oil for next 5 years. Operation wise SIA start to improve on load factor and 1h17 u see tigerair being absorbed into scoot. The improving ops load as a result of lower fares on hedge expiry so now sia can compete on fare price. The high oil hedge hurt sia competivity in last 2 years as cannot lower fare to attract customer. 5 year long term hedge oil at 53 to 59 plus newest boeing and airbus model would enable sia to recover market shares through lower fares and good branding. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
19-Feb-2017 15:26
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Oil raise airline suffer only partially true,   when oil drop like crazy in 2015 to 2016 u don see sia reported record breaking profit. Airline that benefit greatly are US and middle east airline who don hedge. Hedging protect airline profit margin and when oil go up fuel surcharge too would go up. SIA next 5 year hedge 1/3 of oil at brent 53 to 59, if oil cheong to 70 in 2018 fuel surcharge go up too follow market trend. Then u see those 1 time hedge gain cominb every quarter as SIA earn from fuel surcharge as they price in base ticket using hedge oil bet. SIA had made their bet on hedge known to market, oil break 60 then brokerage would upgrade tgt price. Currently bad PR haunting SIA so gona be patient, no worry dividend safe this year as shopping malls still see lot of china and middle east tourists. Fuel surcharge go up fast but come down slow, same as ur electricity bill, that why us and middle east airline made crazy profit when oil tank while SIA trapped in 24 months high oil hedge. Now oil price start to go up, profit dropped in US and middleeast airline as fuel expense go up and fuel surcharge not high.
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sgng123
Supreme |
18-Feb-2017 14:38
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It is that why no interest in counter as investors doubt the growth strategy. Though it is logical to expand in low growth market where plane cost are lower, but market currently very short sighted due to past crisis, investors very cautious only interested in 3 to 6 months outlook. Anyway chance of either SIA or SIAeng privatisation very high this year.
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investshare
Supreme |
18-Feb-2017 12:14
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Isn't buying more Boeings mean expansion? | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
18-Feb-2017 03:03
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Limited upside due to doubt on expansion in a low demand market plus bad PR reaction to staff welfare the MC incident and executive arrogant remark in facebook. SIA clouded in doubt over management leadership this week, wait till it blow over then share would recover on better ops result. SIA need to brush up on their PR skill for communication in future. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
17-Feb-2017 17:07
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Stuck in trading range till something happen, gona be very vexing as other big blue soars on better economy data. Pressure building up on SIA management on this year AGM due to weak stock performance relative to modest profit margin, poor PR skill and lack of investor confidence on growth strategy in weak demand environment.   |
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seanpent
Supreme |
17-Feb-2017 16:41
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where is SIA going ?   seems weak .....
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sgng123
Supreme |
17-Feb-2017 15:59
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Stay caution on SIA, selling come whenever it try to move north. Very obvious bb restricting trading range and buyback or selloff if it is off range. Something big brewing, if holding continue to hold no chance for punt. Good or bad event don wanna get caught on wrong side of trade. Currently SIA trading pattern abnormal according to historical price and profit performance |
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sgng123
Supreme |
17-Feb-2017 08:52
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Delist alway possible as SIA grossly undervalued by market, u don find a big blue with very strong balance sheet trading below it book value so often. Basically zero interest from investors and everyday volume cooked up by fund managers to maintain minimum trading volume to stay in sti 30. Trade range also due to no interest from bb, buyer and seller same dealer everyday just to maintain trade volume. Transport companies going the delist path as followed by nol and smrt. |
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sun233
Elite |
17-Feb-2017 08:20
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You are right with range bound statement but delist absolutely zero chance!!! Just my humble oipnion. Deal with boeing is good..... Less maintenance cost and better feul efficiency........ but it is an expense. Glory days for SQ over. Like i said hard to cross the 10.10 mark. Maybe when they sweeten the dividend then it will move. Also right........ SQ has never traded so long below 10. Worrying trend......
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sgng123
Supreme |
16-Feb-2017 21:56
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The latest boeing deal made buyer cautious on SIA outlook, unless the next few ops report trend positive, stock would be rangebound. Going up 1% tomorrow would selldown 1% this kind of pattern, management under heavy stress to improve result as SIA stay below 10. This time round it very unusual as SIA in it history never trade below 10 for this long, sharebuyback long kick in follow norm condition. This might be a make it or break it moment, return to profit all is good cannot sustain profit time to delist. |
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sun233
Elite |
16-Feb-2017 20:25
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I would be a buyer in the 9.70 range. Lower the better. Like leongyan said swing trade. |
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