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China Fishery - Low PE

flyfox
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14-Feb-2014 18:39

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I think the main reason is the debt issue and the moody downgrade.

Well, I would not say cashflow and debt is healthy for this stock, but it's cheap considered that the price is really below book value.

Somemore it's a quota issue and hence a cyclical stock. There will be more profits when it turnaround.

I am not afraid because this stock mainly owned by Pacific Andes.

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srichipan
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14-Feb-2014 16:03

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Still holding. Though I admit market doesn't like their latest results.

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stockpicker
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14-Feb-2014 09:54

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This is the latest financial report that shows the leverage ratio of CF. The debt to net profit @ 14 is rather high as compared to other companies this debt ratio was about 7.4 before acquiring Copenica. It should be around 5.0. CF must double or triple its profits to get back to where it was. The other ratio on financial leverage are high too and deteriorating after acquiring Copeninca except for debt to cash flow. Hopefully, Copenica can bring them more profits in time to come.

SHOW ALL SHOW ALL % GROWTH	Trend	Full Year Sep 2013	Full Year Sep 2012	Full Year Sep 2011		Full Year Sep 2010
Leverage Ratios
[+] Debt To Net Profit ((Long Term Debt + Short Term Debt)/Net Earnings)		14.451	7.412	n.a.	n.a.
*Period-on-Period % Growth*		+94.98%	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
[+] Debt To Cash Flow ((Long Term Debt + Short Term Debt)/Operating Cash Flow)		4.260	6.320	n.a.	n.a.
*Period-on-Period % Growth*		-32.58%	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
[+] Interest Coverage (Profit Before Interest and Tax/Interest Expense)		2.585	4.153	3.916	4.766
*Period-on-Period % Growth*		-37.75%	+6.07%	-17.84%	n.a.
[+] Net Debt To Equity ((Long Term Debt + Short Term Debt - Cash and Short Term Investments)/(Shareholders' Equity - Other Share Capital))		0.975	0.647	n.a.	n.a.
*Period-on-Period % Growth*		+50.72%	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
[+] Total Debt To Equity ((Long Term Debt + Short Term Debt)/ (Shareholders' Equity - Other Share Capital))		1.039	0.710	n.a.	n.a.
*Period-on-Period % Growth*		+46.35%	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
[+] Total Debt To Total Assets ((Short Term Debt + Long Term Debt)/Total Assets)		0.429	0.385	n.a.	n.a.

dc16888 ( Date: 13-Feb-2014 09:40) Posted:

Hi Bro, which part is the said high debth? please enlighten.

Financial strength
Current Ratio	1.00
Quick Ratio	0.76
Long Term Debt to Equity (%)	57.37
Total Debt to Equity (%)	103.87
Interest Coverage Ratio (TTM)	3.10
Free Cash Flow to Firm (TTM) (SGD 'mln)	200.13

interfact ( Date: 13-Feb-2014 09:33) Posted:

Result not so rosy.Big debt.Fish turning belly up if eaten wrong bait.

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Blanchard
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13-Feb-2014 22:31

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Yells: "Winners cry..... Losers smile....."

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http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/mnd-ava-to-help-farmers/995452.html

Our local aquaculture is mainly from coastal fish farms vs China Fishery's harvesting of fish in the vast oceans.

ysh2006 ( Date: 13-Feb-2014 21:51) Posted:

Why is it because every day saw report on dead fishes floating around Singapore here and there ?...H1N9 supposed only for chicken not fish mah...

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Feb-2014 16:37) Posted:

Below 40 cents soon.

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ysh2006
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13-Feb-2014 21:51

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Why is it because every day saw report on dead fishes floating around Singapore here and there ?...H1N9 supposed only for chicken not fish mah...

earlybird14 ( Date: 13-Feb-2014 16:37) Posted:

Below 40 cents soon.

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flyfox
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13-Feb-2014 20:07

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http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/CFGL-NoticeBCD-130214.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=274492

Dividend Value	Payment Type	Dividend Type	Financial Year End	Dividend Number	Tax Exemption Clause
SGD 0.01 Per 1 Ordinary share	Tax not applicable	First & Final	28/09/2013	NA	NA

Record Date *	26/02/2014
Record Time *	17:00
Date Paid/Payable (if applicable)	07/03/2014

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Peter_Pan
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13-Feb-2014 18:52

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Yells: "kopi-o siu dai mai hum!"

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Going fishing tomorrow..!!

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earlybird14
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13-Feb-2014 16:37

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Below 40 cents soon.

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Blanchard
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13-Feb-2014 16:01

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Moody is now focusing on China Fish's ability to secure refinancing for repayment of her bridge loan and debt by end Mar 14. Hope China Fish is successful so as to preserve her current credit ratings.

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JMS213
Senior

13-Feb-2014 12:23

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Yells: "Just living is not enough. One must have sunshine, freedom !"

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Guess we are too consumed by all the noises. Before the CNY comes to a close, let me wish all

马年有鱼

Huat Ah !!!

Blanchard ( Date: 30-Jan-2014 12:53) Posted:

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earlybird14
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13-Feb-2014 10:47

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China fish got 400 plus million senior note. 500 plus million of bridge loan which was used for copeinca acquisition.

500 plus million bridge loan is current liability which must settle this year. This quarter result doesn't impress market due to uncertainty supply revenue from Russia, 30% drop, this will increase the difficulty of refinance and result in even higher interest to be offered.

The pain of this bridge loan refinance will come soon.

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dc16888
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13-Feb-2014 09:40

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Hi Bro, which part is the said high debth? please enlighten.

Financial strength
Current Ratio	1.00
Quick Ratio	0.76
Long Term Debt to Equity (%)	57.37
Total Debt to Equity (%)	103.87
Interest Coverage Ratio (TTM)	3.10
Free Cash Flow to Firm (TTM) (SGD 'mln)	200.13

interfact ( Date: 13-Feb-2014 09:33) Posted:

Result not so rosy.Big debt.Fish turning belly up if eaten wrong bait.

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interfact
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13-Feb-2014 09:33

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Result not so rosy.Big debt.Fish turning belly up if eaten wrong bait.

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earlybird14
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13-Feb-2014 09:05

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Game is over. No buyer. 1 panic seller can change the price to 40.

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EZ3626
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13-Feb-2014 00:59

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I held back from buying today ... haha just being careful. After reading some of your comments, I realised that those issues raised are really no issue but merely smoke screen to confuse others. What debt issue ??? I read somewhere, the value of CF after the acquisition has gone UP. Interesting nobody mention about it.

Will go along with Gyyy, buy more if BB drops further afterall the free float is less than 20%.

Remember someone mentioned, what if CF decides to buy UP the remaining 20%. Seriously I am also curious to know. Can it happen and what is the chances ???

EZ3626 ( Date: 11-Feb-2014 23:19) Posted:

Overall China Fishery did well with the acquisition.

Pacific Andes' Q1 results lifted by subsidiary China Fishery

Published on Feb 11, 2014 7:04 PM By Rachael Boon

Frozen seafood supplier Pacific Andes Resources Development saw its first-quarter revenue rise 2 per cent to HK$2.4 billion, boosted by its unit China Fishery Group.

Revenue from the fishery and fish supply division increased by 34.4 per cent to HK$1.1 billion for the three months to Dec 28, compared with the same period a year ago, reported the firm on Tuesday (Feb 11).

This makes up 46.7 per cent of total revenue.

This was mainly due to contributions from Copeinca ASA, the fishmeal and fish oil business recently acquired by China Fishery.

SLPY69 ( Date: 11-Feb-2014 18:11) Posted:

With all the noises, we must have missed out on what Supermonkey has to say ..

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Blanchard
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13-Feb-2014 00:45

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newbie888 & EZ3626,

" The supply of fish under the pre-paid contracts for a period of 10 to 18 years, up to 2030" is mentioned in the Undercurrent report below:

http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/01/03/china-fishery-pre-paid-pollock-contracts-profitable/

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EZ3626
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13-Feb-2014 00:36

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Newbie888, just saw your post. I can't agree with you more, the past few days, some have juice up the news. C'mon if they can acquire Copeinca which is quite an incredible feat, what is bridging loan ??? Is just being play up .... wayang wayang.

Like what Blanchard has said " Looking forward to a brighter future and giving credit to the management for trying to grow the business while adapting to changing business environment."

Stay vested.

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newbie888
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13-Feb-2014 00:13

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China fish knows that the Russians will catch up with them thus finding an alternative before it happens completely... An increase in their profit despite the significant drop in revenue/profit from the Russian Pollock business has also shows that they are moving in the right direction... If what senior Blanchard says is true that the contract is for 10?20? years?, then this 2 main engine is going to run hand in hand for a few more years....this will definitely be very positive for china fish since it is an open secret that the TAC in peru has been by xx times... so if the profits continue to improve, then I would believe that they have the ability to meet their loan bridging target... so I guess im going to stay vested for the time being...cheers!

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earlybird14
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12-Feb-2014 17:04

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Contract Supply Business (North Pacific or Russia region) is the highest profit margin among the 3 sectors, because of central located close to high density population such as China and Europe market.

Peru fishery is far from that region and US market has sufficient fish to consume. The transportation cost is high and profit margin is relatively low.

The China Fishing Fleet is the worst which contain high risk toward the business model due to its unstable.

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earlybird14
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12-Feb-2014 16:38

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This fish is not more fat, may contain poison inside.

just be careful. High debt company must have good earning to support debt repayment. Revenue & profit are supposed to grow.

Contract supply business is big question mark and big risk to all investors.

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