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OLAM_OLAM
BMW320
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14-Nov-2013 04:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Unlikely to see $3.20. $1.98 is possible.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 12:12) Posted:



Lol,

Olam is one of the most heavily shorted STI component counter. If short squeeze can easily return to previous price ($3.20) and above=> > > Mostly likely can reach  $3.60. But don't greedy, once $3.20 hit can throw already. Be disciplined. I waiting nia.

 

Look at the number of thumbs down we recieved. Shortists hate us lol.
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Rosesyrup
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14-Nov-2013 02:34     
 
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Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 02:16) Posted:



Ok my forecast for tomorrow result:
  1. profit growth 20%=> Minimum
  2. Maximum > 50%
  3. If 1 or 2 is true, bull run is visible within 2 months time
  4. If 1 and 2 are not true, bull run is adjourned to next June.
  5. Alot of people  might think that by cutting capital expenditure  Olam is REALLY going to drop the profit target of 1B- as in miss the target by alot.
  6. But from what I see olam has been doing for the past few months, I don't think so. Olam is still on track to it.
    • Sunny is indeed a smart guy. MW force him to cut leverage=> ROE fall, target missed.
    • But he comes up with another way to maintain the ROE=> INCREASE ROA!!!!!
    • How he increase ROA?
    • OPERATING LEASE :)
    • ROE maintained. 1 Billion target profit still on track.


The above is just my forecast. NOT A BUY CALL.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 01:41) Posted:



Tomorrow report coming after trading hours.

Should be good news-eyeing 20% profit growth
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Rosesyrup
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14-Nov-2013 02:16     
 
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Ok my forecast for tomorrow result:
  1. profit growth 20%=> Minimum
  2. Maximum > 50%
  3. If 1 or 2 is true, bull run is visible within 2 months time
  4. If 1 and 2 are not true, bull run is adjourned to next June.
  5. Alot of people  might think that by cutting capital expenditure  Olam is REALLY going to drop the profit target of 1B- as in miss the target by alot.
  6. But from what I see olam has been doing for the past few months, I don't think so. Olam is still on track to it.
    • Sunny is indeed a smart guy. MW force him to cut leverage=> ROE fall, target missed.
    • But he comes up with another way to maintain the ROE=> INCREASE ROA!!!!!
    • How he increase ROA?
    • OPERATING LEASE :)
    • ROE maintained. 1 Billion target profit still on track.


The above is just my forecast. NOT A BUY CALL.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 14-Nov-2013 01:41) Posted:



Tomorrow report coming after trading hours.

Should be good news-eyeing 20% profit growth.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 13:50) Posted:



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Rosesyrup
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14-Nov-2013 01:41     
 
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Tomorrow report coming after trading hours.

Should be good news-eyeing 20% profit growth.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 13:50) Posted:

Chinese Idom: Use a long line to catch a big fish



 

nngeeh      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 13:41) Posted:



I just checked the SGX lending Pool, and it is showing that there are only 34 lots for lending.

If you look at the url below dated 30 Nov 2012, Olam is the most borrowed stock among Singapore's top 30 companies. Judging from the SGX lending pool, this status has not changed for the  past 1 year. The shortist who borrowed the share to short will be incurring huge cost (6%), and with Temasek's backing which will prevent the share price from going below 1.40 (Temasek came in to buy last year when the price when below 1.4), it will be a matter of time when the shortist will need to buy back the share.

I am guessing (my own thought) that once we  see that  the availability of the lending stock is increasing steadily, it should be the right time to go in.  It  will be interesting to see if there is any spike on the 1 year anniversary of Muddy water's attack.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/olam-muddywaters-idUSL4N0900Q220121120

 
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Rosesyrup
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12-Nov-2013 13:50     
 
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Chinese Idom: Use a long line to catch a big fish



 

nngeeh      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 13:41) Posted:



I just checked the SGX lending Pool, and it is showing that there are only 34 lots for lending.

If you look at the url below dated 30 Nov 2012, Olam is the most borrowed stock among Singapore's top 30 companies. Judging from the SGX lending pool, this status has not changed for the  past 1 year. The shortist who borrowed the share to short will be incurring huge cost (6%), and with Temasek's backing which will prevent the share price from going below 1.40 (Temasek came in to buy last year when the price when below 1.4), it will be a matter of time when the shortist will need to buy back the share.

I am guessing (my own thought) that once we  see that  the availability of the lending stock is increasing steadily, it should be the right time to go in.  It  will be interesting to see if there is any spike on the 1 year anniversary of Muddy water's attack.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/olam-muddywaters-idUSL4N0900Q220121120

 

jwblue      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 11:57) Posted:



If there is a short squeeze, what is the best strategy for current shareholders?

  I am a long term investor, but at the same time I would like to make a profit in the case of a short squeeze.

  When the stock reaches its high point, what percentage or price will it fall and settle? 
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nngeeh
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12-Nov-2013 13:41     
 
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I just checked the SGX lending Pool, and it is showing that there are only 34 lots for lending.

If you look at the url below dated 30 Nov 2012, Olam is the most borrowed stock among Singapore's top 30 companies. Judging from the SGX lending pool, this status has not changed for the  past 1 year. The shortist who borrowed the share to short will be incurring huge cost (6%), and with Temasek's backing which will prevent the share price from going below 1.40 (Temasek came in to buy last year when the price when below 1.4), it will be a matter of time when the shortist will need to buy back the share.

I am guessing (my own thought) that once we  see that  the availability of the lending stock is increasing steadily, it should be the right time to go in.  It  will be interesting to see if there is any spike on the 1 year anniversary of Muddy water's attack.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/20/olam-muddywaters-idUSL4N0900Q220121120

 

jwblue      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 11:57) Posted:



If there is a short squeeze, what is the best strategy for current shareholders?

  I am a long term investor, but at the same time I would like to make a profit in the case of a short squeeze.

  When the stock reaches its high point, what percentage or price will it fall and settle? 

nngeeh      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 09:36) Posted:



Sis,

I think your assumption below could be happening soon. I am looking at the price of the Olam warrant today, and there is hardly any sellers. I like to look at warrant, especially those with large exercise price (and with big premium). The trading pattern of these type of warrants give a good indication of the future price of the mother share. At the moment, the buying price is USD$0.220 (equivalent to mother share's price of    1.88), and the sellers are queueing at USD0.29 (equvalent to mother share's price of 1.975). The fact is that all the major Shareholders participated in the rights exercise, but there is hardly any sellers willing to let go even though the warrant is " out of the money" and knowing that the price of the warrant might drop in 1 year's time if it is still " out of money" .

I believe those who are holding on to the warrant is expecting the olam price to go up soon.

 
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Rosesyrup
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12-Nov-2013 12:12     
 
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Lol,

Olam is one of the most heavily shorted STI component counter. If short squeeze can easily return to previous price ($3.20) and above=> > > Mostly likely can reach  $3.60. But don't greedy, once $3.20 hit can throw already. Be disciplined. I waiting nia.

 

Look at the number of thumbs down we recieved. Shortists hate us lol.
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jwblue
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12-Nov-2013 11:57     
 
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If there is a short squeeze, what is the best strategy for current shareholders?

  I am a long term investor, but at the same time I would like to make a profit in the case of a short squeeze.

  When the stock reaches its high point, what percentage or price will it fall and settle? 

nngeeh      ( Date: 12-Nov-2013 09:36) Posted:



Sis,

I think your assumption below could be happening soon. I am looking at the price of the Olam warrant today, and there is hardly any sellers. I like to look at warrant, especially those with large exercise price (and with big premium). The trading pattern of these type of warrants give a good indication of the future price of the mother share. At the moment, the buying price is USD$0.220 (equivalent to mother share's price of    1.88), and the sellers are queueing at USD0.29 (equvalent to mother share's price of 1.975). The fact is that all the major Shareholders participated in the rights exercise, but there is hardly any sellers willing to let go even though the warrant is " out of the money" and knowing that the price of the warrant might drop in 1 year's time if it is still " out of money" .

I believe those who are holding on to the warrant is expecting the olam price to go up soon.

 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:01) Posted:



I believe you have yet to take into account the following:
  1. Short squeeze when shortists are routing panicly. The stage is already set for short squeeze to happen, just need a spark and the fire go wild.
  2. Huge funds who have exited Olam after MW's attack. These funds will come back once Olam is off their blacklist.
  3. New commodity run in thrid world nations.


With all these factors, $3.20 is not a dream
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nngeeh
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12-Nov-2013 09:36     
 
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Sis,

I think your assumption below could be happening soon. I am looking at the price of the Olam warrant today, and there is hardly any sellers. I like to look at warrant, especially those with large exercise price (and with big premium). The trading pattern of these type of warrants give a good indication of the future price of the mother share. At the moment, the buying price is USD$0.220 (equivalent to mother share's price of    1.88), and the sellers are queueing at USD0.29 (equvalent to mother share's price of 1.975). The fact is that all the major Shareholders participated in the rights exercise, but there is hardly any sellers willing to let go even though the warrant is " out of the money" and knowing that the price of the warrant might drop in 1 year's time if it is still " out of money" .

I believe those who are holding on to the warrant is expecting the olam price to go up soon.

 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 13:01) Posted:



I believe you have yet to take into account the following:
  1. Short squeeze when shortists are routing panicly. The stage is already set for short squeeze to happen, just need a spark and the fire go wild.
  2. Huge funds who have exited Olam after MW's attack. These funds will come back once Olam is off their blacklist.
  3. New commodity run in thrid world nations.


With all these factors, $3.20 is not a dream.

nngeeh      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 12:03) Posted:



I'm with you on this (but i thinking more of the TP of 2+). From the recent interview with MW, it seems that they are still holding to the short position, but i think they will be looking for the right time to buy back without the whole Market joining in (which will push it much higher due to short squeeze).

Based on the warrant pricing that didn't drop below 0.20, and the fact that  all the  major shareholders didn't offload the warrant (based on the warrant transaction volume for the past 1 year), i believe most of the shareholders are expecting it to go above $2. It's almost 1 year since the MW attack, and i think everyone is just waiting for the right moment to go in, maybe the moment that MW start buying back  (my view)
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beginners
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11-Nov-2013 21:54     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Coming down. Maybe towards 1.4
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beginners
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09-Nov-2013 18:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Price like creeping down slowly. See Monday what's the outcome.
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jwblue
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07-Nov-2013 02:01     
 
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I did not mean to sound confrontational. 

I merely wanted to show that I agree with what you said.

I just can't imagine management doing the wrong thing.

 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 00:59) Posted:

That's my point. If they choose to pay large dividend when in fact  paying down debt is a better option, then something is fishy.

jwblue      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 00:17) Posted:



Management is not dumb.  

If they can afford to pay a large dividend, they will.   Determining whether a large dividend can be paid vs. paying down debt is a simple math equation.  

 

 

 
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07-Nov-2013 01:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Oic, thks sis and good night.

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:59) Posted:



Nothing much. It is just that Olam has got high debt.
  • Investors would rather olam reduce its debt with cash rather than paying dividends. Especially after MW's attack on olam's debt issue and interest rate is expected to rise.
  • To Olam's management team, payment of small divdends, after the MW incident, is necessary  to secure investors' confident  in the  company's ability to generate cashflow and dispell any rumours about it's liquidity problem.
  • However, if Olam were to continue giving out large dividend rather than  repaying debts:
    •   Reflect badly on management's foresight and capability
    • Olam's claimed that operating cashflow only comes in in 2014. If it is able to pay huge cash dividend now, where did all that cash comes from? Why not reduce debt with that cash or reinvest it? Why is the management is willing to go so far to shore up investor confident? Is it giving invesotrs a false sense of security? It kind of reinforce MW's claim that something fishy is going on.


Lets see what happen on AGM. If they announce huge dividend again, I think I have to review my assessment again.

beginners      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:33) Posted:

Hi Sis, can share with me your view? Thks
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Rosesyrup
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07-Nov-2013 00:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		That's my point. If they choose to pay large dividend when in fact  paying down debt is a better option, then something is fishy.

jwblue      ( Date: 07-Nov-2013 00:17) Posted:



Management is not dumb.  

If they can afford to pay a large dividend, they will.   Determining whether a large dividend can be paid vs. paying down debt is a simple math equation.  

 

 

 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:59) Posted:



Nothing much. It is just that Olam has got high debt.
  • Investors would rather olam reduce its debt with cash rather than paying dividends. Especially after MW's attack on olam's debt issue and interest rate is expected to rise.
  • To Olam's management team, payment of small divdends, after the MW incident, is necessary  to secure investors' confident  in the  company's ability to generate cashflow and dispell any rumours about it's liquidity problem.
  • However, if Olam were to continue giving out large dividend rather than  repaying debts:
    •   Reflect badly on management's foresight and capability
    • Olam's claimed that operating cashflow only comes in in 2014. If it is able to pay huge cash dividend now, where did all that cash comes from? Why not reduce debt with that cash or reinvest it? Why is the management is willing to go so far to shore up investor confident? Is it giving invesotrs a false sense of security? It kind of reinforce MW's claim that something fishy is going on.


Lets see what happen on AGM. If they announce huge dividend again, I think I have to review my assessment again
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jwblue
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07-Nov-2013 00:17     
 
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Management is not dumb.  

If they can afford to pay a large dividend, they will.   Determining whether a large dividend can be paid vs. paying down debt is a simple math equation.  

 

 

 

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:59) Posted:



Nothing much. It is just that Olam has got high debt.
  • Investors would rather olam reduce its debt with cash rather than paying dividends. Especially after MW's attack on olam's debt issue and interest rate is expected to rise.
  • To Olam's management team, payment of small divdends, after the MW incident, is necessary  to secure investors' confident  in the  company's ability to generate cashflow and dispell any rumours about it's liquidity problem.
  • However, if Olam were to continue giving out large dividend rather than  repaying debts:
    •   Reflect badly on management's foresight and capability
    • Olam's claimed that operating cashflow only comes in in 2014. If it is able to pay huge cash dividend now, where did all that cash comes from? Why not reduce debt with that cash or reinvest it? Why is the management is willing to go so far to shore up investor confident? Is it giving invesotrs a false sense of security? It kind of reinforce MW's claim that something fishy is going on.


Lets see what happen on AGM. If they announce huge dividend again, I think I have to review my assessment again.

beginners      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:33) Posted:

Hi Sis, can share with me your view? Thks
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Rosesyrup
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Nothing much. It is just that Olam has got high debt.
  • Investors would rather olam reduce its debt with cash rather than paying dividends. Especially after MW's attack on olam's debt issue and interest rate is expected to rise.
  • To Olam's management team, payment of small divdends, after the MW incident, is necessary  to secure investors' confident  in the  company's ability to generate cashflow and dispell any rumours about it's liquidity problem.
  • However, if Olam were to continue giving out large dividend rather than  repaying debts:
    •   Reflect badly on management's foresight and capability
    • Olam's claimed that operating cashflow only comes in in 2014. If it is able to pay huge cash dividend now, where did all that cash comes from? Why not reduce debt with that cash or reinvest it? Why is the management is willing to go so far to shore up investor confident? Is it giving invesotrs a false sense of security? It kind of reinforce MW's claim that something fishy is going on.


Lets see what happen on AGM. If they announce huge dividend again, I think I have to review my assessment again.

beginners      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:33) Posted:

Hi Sis, can share with me your view? Thks

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:01) Posted:

You should worry abit  if there is another round of dividend
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beginners
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06-Nov-2013 23:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi Sis, can share with me your view? Thks

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 23:01) Posted:

You should worry abit  if there is another round of dividend.

beginners      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 20:54) Posted:

Bro I thought only lah. Wahoo if really got anther round Dvd will be just ah!!:
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Rosesyrup
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06-Nov-2013 23:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		You should worry abit  if there is another round of dividend.

beginners      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 20:54) Posted:

Bro I thought only lah. Wahoo if really got anther round Dvd will be just ah!!:)

jj7007      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 00:41) Posted:



Why u think will shit like hell in the first place? Still an underperformer u know, even at 160 last week.

Maybe after the 14/11 results, got another round of div lol. 


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06-Nov-2013 20:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Okie sis roses:). Thks man! :)

Rosesyrup      ( Date: 05-Nov-2013 21:33) Posted:

Trust no one in this forum. Only look at the reasonableness of  their calls and assess their claims.

beginners      ( Date: 05-Nov-2013 20:44) Posted:

Strange, I thought it will shit like hell. But seems like someone trying to hold it. Still not bad:
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beginners
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06-Nov-2013 20:54     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Bro I thought only lah. Wahoo if really got anther round Dvd will be just ah!!:)

jj7007      ( Date: 06-Nov-2013 00:41) Posted:



Why u think will shit like hell in the first place? Still an underperformer u know, even at 160 last week.

Maybe after the 14/11 results, got another round of div lol. 

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