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Tiong Woon
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Heero78
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14-May-2014 16:12
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dun think that NOL will do well this quarter...
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Lucky03
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14-May-2014 12:16
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We will know in 4 hrs. If history is to repeat itself, we may be able to see action after 4pm. Hopefully the reverse this time :)
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jj7007
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14-May-2014 10:38
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If history is anything to go by, then please remember that we had a sell down last qtr right before mkt closed as the news of the results not being fantastic was leaked. Will we see a repeat today? |
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Lucky03
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13-May-2014 23:31
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Game changer or floating monuments of engineering prowess?
About a year ago, euphoria swept the marine shipping world, as the Maersk EEE started making regular voyages and caused us to rethink the economics of shipping. The 18,270 teu vessel is awe inspiring and the sheer economy of scale it provides makes it possible to start considering a revolution similar to one that took place in passenger aviation following the introduction of the Airbus A380. A few companies have followed suit with mega-vessels of their own, and by the end of 2014, the 19,000 TEU vessel will allow CSCL to crown themselves as having ?the biggest one?. And sometime in 2015, a few similarly-sized newbuilds will add to the global capacity. Will the mega-ships change the world of shipping or will they merely become floating monuments of engineering prowess? There is no disputing the fact, that the slot cost economics of mega-ships favor them over smaller vessels, even if utilized at capacity below 100%. But let?s review some factors influencing global container shipping to assess the short and mid-term viability of the mega-ship strategy. Demand is a key factor. Under one scenario, the demand in the traditional destination markets will rapidly recover over the next 12-24 months. The trade picture emerging over the last 12 months does not support this scenario. The demand of traditional markets is recovering at relatively slow pace, which is seen in both, the level of activities at traditional destination ports and the manufacturing output reported by Asian companies. The pace of demand recovery may mean that just as the existing mega-ships get assured of 100% utilization, the new mega-ships entering the service in 2015 will increase the available capacity and throw the demand-supply balance into disarray. However, if you still believe in this ?rapid recovery? scenario, consider another powerful trend happening now ? re-shoring of manufacturing capacity from Asia closer to the North American and European markets. This relocation process, currently underway, means that the re-shorers gain major advantage of reduced length and cost of their supply chain over their competitors remaining in Asia. Counteracting this trend, Asian manufacturers are responding in three ways, each impacting the mega-ship strategy. Some follow the re-shorers and set up new capacity where means of production still offer them cost advantage (e.g. Turkey for Europe and Mexico for North America). Some lean harder on the shipping companies to reduce the shipping costs and they are getting their wish, as the mega-ship owners need cargo to maintain 90%+ utilization on every voyage. Last but not least, they aggressively look for new demand in new markets, especially in Asia and Africa, as evidenced by the increasing trade flows already trending higher than 2013 volumes. These flows are obviously much smaller comparing to Asia-Europe and Asia-North America flows, but they generate container demand on both ends, creating steady demand sufficient to fill vessels below, but not above the 14,000 teu mark. If these three trends are not enough to put pressure on the current owners of mega-ships, then arrival of comparable vessels in 2015 will surely lead to renewed price and margin pressures. Carriers can respond by improving economics of their rotations, continuously optimizing their network, and being smarter about forecasting and demand planning. They have access to information technologies that can help them with these tasks. Bundling of services and increasing integration within far-reaching alliances are other countermeasures taken straight out of the book of airline alliances. However, operating within an alliance framework carries the risk of de-optimizing each carrier?s operations to meet their obligations to the alliance. For the keen observer of the shipping market, 2014 will bring some, but not all the answers to the mega-ship strategy. Just as the aviation industry is seeing the Airbus A380 story unfolding differently from earlier projections, we may not yet be seeing the full picture of the impact of the mega-ship strategy on the marine shipping industry. Kris Kosmala, VP APAC at Quintiq ---------------- Quintiq is the fastest-growing provider of the optimization software solutions for supply chains and logistics. "Impossible" planning and scheduling challenges welcome at www.quintiq.com. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
13-May-2014 22:51
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Boxships set for 2014 scrapping record
By Charlie Bartlett from London Over 212,000 teu of container ship capacity has been scrapped in the first four months of 2014, leading to predictions that scrapping rates will hit another record this year, according to an Alphaliner report. The total for the first four months of 2014 is 27% more compared to the same period in the previous year, and scrapping may well hit record highs of 500,000teu by the end of the year, according to many estimates. Scrappings is still being outpaced by deliveries, however, with 538,000 teu of new capacity coming onto the market in the first four months of 2014, two-and-a-half times more than is being scrapped. The vessels scrapped so far this year had an average age of 21, younger than ever before. The average age of scrapped tonnage has been falling consecutively since 2011, from an average of 28 years, down to 23 in 2012, and 22 in 2013. Previously, 2013 was itself a record year for scrapping, with more than 450,000teu scrapped, the vast majority of which took place in poorly-regulated scrapping yards on the Indian subcontinent. |
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daddyo
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13-May-2014 16:01
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Holding for the longer term. | ||||
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sgng123
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13-May-2014 00:40
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Another big asia - europe GRI coming out in june. Getting mixed picture on major trade lane, transpacific lod factor remain highly ultised ( > 90%) but rate remain subdued. Europe economy slow growth but freight rate ticking up. Very hard to anticipate what happening in shipping industry, too much unknown at work. From SFCI capacity withdrawn is playing key role in europe lane rate improvement, where in transpacific rate remain low but load factor high ?. |
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Lucky03
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12-May-2014 20:45
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Although not exactly the same sources of revenue, there seems to be a general improvement in shipping industry as some of the rates recovers. Hope NOL will show us some positive spin when releasing its Q1 result wed.
Main Menu Bumper Q1 revenues push NAT into the black By Gary Howard from London Nordic American Tankers hailed its $3.9m profit for the first quarter as its "best results for several years." The net profit improves on a $32m loss in the same period 2013, a year with a total loss of $105.4m for the tanker owner. Revenues in the first quarter of $45m were a notable increase on Q1 2013's $17.2m, and more than half of the $70.2m earned in the whole of last year. The company attributed its improved performance to significantly better time charter results, although it still sees volatility in the market. Average daily rates of $26,300 for Q1 are a significant improvement on the Q4 2013's $14,100 per day average, although rates have since weakened. NAT hopes that it will be better placed to take advantage of improved rates going forward as off-hire time due to drydocking will be minimised by investing heavily in drydocking and maintenance over the past two years of weaker rates. The company's $65m investment in Nordic American Offshore (NAO), which left NAT with a 26% stake, has already yielded $2m from NAO's first dividend and the offshore offshoot is expected to list on The New York Stock Exchange soon. |
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Lucky03
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12-May-2014 17:15
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I remain cautiously optimistic. Big hand grabbed the sellers q 400+ lots of $1 in 1 trade at 16:49:40 ! | ||||
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sgng123
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12-May-2014 15:51
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sti today moving lower down 25+ bringing down trading sentiment. nothing much for ship till wed result hope this time round cost saving would be significant enough to bring back profit else the NOL board directors need to answer to temasek and get boot lol. From previous year report, cost saving effect is strongest at 2Q followed by 1Q, 3Q and 4Q offer little cost saving effect so time to pray hard last chance for ship to stage any rebound. In 2013 7 charters ships returned result in 8% drop in operating expense, 1Q most likely see similar amount of charters returned so finger cross. |
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Lucky03
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11-May-2014 00:39
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Euro Area Makes Headway as Japan Growth Picks Up: Global Economy
By Vince Golle May 10, 2014 12:00 PM EDT Growth in Europe and Japan probably accelerated in the first quarter and American retailers enjoyed another solid month in April, indicating the world economy is making headway. Gross domestic product in the 18-nation euro area is projected to post the fastest growth in three years in January through March. Growth in Japan advanced by the most in a year as consumers and companies rushed to beat an April tax increase that will probably weigh on the economy this quarter, economists surveyed by Bloomberg project. Retail sales will probably show that the pickup in hiring in the U.S. is giving households the wherewithal to sustain spending in the second quarter. In the U.K., which is headed for the fastest expansion among Group of Seven nations this year, the Bank of England?s Mark Carney presents the quarterly inflation report. In Chile, where the economy is having a tougher time and inflationary pressures mount, central bankers will consider whether to reduce borrowing costs. Finally, Joe Hockey will present his first budget as Australia?s treasurer. EUROPEAN GROWTH -- Economic growth in the euro area probably accelerated to 0.4 percent in the three months through March, the best performance since the same three months in 2011, from 0.2 percent in the previous quarter, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The European Union?s statistics office will release the data on May 15 in Luxembourg. -- ?The economic recovery in the euro area is picking up a bit,? said Marco Valli, chief euro-area economist at UniCredit Global Research in Milan. ?But it?s still a very modest number and it doesn?t really change the bigger picture that the recovery remains fragile.? -- ?The euro-area recovery is broadly on track, but risks remain skewed to the downside,? Fabio Fois, an economist at Barclays Plc, wrote in a research note. While there are downside risks in some countries, such as France and Italy, ?this did not cause us to change our projected euro-area growth outlook we continue to expect GDP to expand 1.3 percent this year.? JAPAN GDP -- Japan?s economy probably expanded an annualized 4.2 percent in the first quarter after a 0.7 percent pace in the final three months of 2013, the Bloomberg survey median shows before government data due May 15. Demand was probably boosted ahead of an April increase in the nation?s value-added tax to 8 percent from 5 percent. -- The result is likely to be ?supported by strong front-loaded consumption and solidly rising capital expenditure,? Daiju Aoki, senior economist at UBS AG in Tokyo, said in a research report. ?In 2014, we estimate that both private- and public-sector demand will support growth even as net exports remain negative.? U.S. RETAIL SALES -- Retail purchases climbed 0.4 percent last month after a 1.2 percent gain in March that was the biggest since August 2012, economists forecast a May 13 report from the Commerce Department will show. Sales excluding auto dealers probably increased 0.6 percent after a 0.7 percent March advance, which would mark the strongest back-to-back gains since early 2013. -- ?We believe there was pent-up demand in March, leading to a spike that is unlikely to be repeated in April,? Michelle Meyer, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, wrote in a report. ?Spending on autos will likely provide a slight drag on the headline number with vehicle sales down in the month after the pop in March.? Nonetheless, Meyer went on to write that ?on balance, the report should show a solid gain in consumer spending, supporting our view that real consumer spending will climb 4 percent? at an annualized rate in the second quarter after rising at a 3 percent pace in the first three months of the year. -- ?Beneath the surface, we anticipate retail activity to look relatively robust,? economists at RBC Capital Markets in New York wrote in a report. Bigger wage gains mean ?consumers have more ammunition to drive spending higher in the near term. April retail sales should provide a good starting point? for consumer spending in the second quarter. RBC forecasts a 2.2 percent increase in purchases at an annual rate from April through June. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
10-May-2014 16:48
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SCFI up 19 to 1168 due to asia-europe rate moving north, currently it is at 1400 close to the Jan peak height of 1500. Hope the trend continue and look like the mega alliance is pulling out excess capacity to balance the demand and supply situation. Asia-Europe freight rate according to SCFI behave more seasonally moving up when it should and down as offpeak. Basically the chart of SCFI ideally should look like this moving up in may then peak in Sep, downward move till dec when u get a nice small bounce up due to CNY then down again till April when it start moving north. Last few year is low low rate regardless of peak/off peak season and only move up when carriers push GRI, now no GRI for this week and freight rate move more seasonally. |
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sgng123
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10-May-2014 16:35
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What happen in europe trade lane is repeating itself in transpacific trade lane. More shippers asking for lower rate in May service contract by just providing basic port to port operation, basically spot rate based on SCFI or WCI. Container shipping is commoditised due to the 3 mega alliance, freight rate going to be lower compared to pre crisis period. Lower freight rate might not be a bad thing as only basic service provided for transporting goods via sea to port terminal only, third party had to be sourced for providing the storage and last leg of transporting to customer. NOL should take advantage of this trend and divested it port terminal and logsitic business for a tidy profit due to enhanced asset valuation due to all these years of QE. NOL buy over APL and their port terminal portfolio for 250+ mil 25 years ago now it time to unlock the asset value and return the group finance to pink. It also cut cost for the group throough lower tax rate and ammortisation. 1Q result is either flat or small loss due partly to charters retiring and new efficent ships coming in. Share price had reflecting this fact but this week got punters betting on the downside by shorting before result came in. So if result surprise on the upside small profit then share would pop up due to short covering that all. Still need big players to push up share valuation, hope either a merger deal came out or divestment of non core asset then u see some serious upward boost to share price like noble. Just watch out for NOl management guidance ofgroup future profit forcast.
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hem2998
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10-May-2014 16:35
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Already broke $1... | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-May-2014 16:09
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D-Day 14 May after market closes. I'm cautiously optimistic but NOL has disappointed many often enough that many do not harbour hope. That may be good if the result turns out mildly positive. I suppose if it may still report a loss as it will not have the $200m asset sale to cushion its Q1 like last year, its price may dip to 0.97. On the other hand, if it surprises on the upside or more confident statement being issued in his forecast, I believe it should spike up above 1.045. Much will depend on institutional players. Retail has limited influencing power to push up but it can push down more effectively given the relatively low daily volume traded. | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-May-2014 16:03
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TSA carriers agree westbound reefer rates look ripe for a hike
TIGHT supply and rising demand are expected to put upwards pressure on westbound freight rates for refrigerated containers transporting US beef, pork and poultry to Asia, according to the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement. Saturday, 10.May.2014, 03:06 (GMT) TSA carriers agree westbound reefer rates look ripe for a hike TIGHT supply and rising demand are expected to put upwards pressure on westbound freight rates for refrigerated containers transporting US beef, pork and poultry to Asia, according to the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement. A statement issued on behalf of TSA member shipping lines cited a number of factors behind the optimism that the rates will jump. "Increased demand from a growing urban middle class in Asia is reopening markets for US exporters, at a time when refrigerated equipment has migrated to other trades and is more costly to purchase and lease," said the TSA statement. Carriers of so-called "protein" cargo have been advised by the TSA to increase westbound rates by US$700 per FEU, effective July 1, as most rates for protein cargo are at their lowest in five years. "We're seeing a perfect storm develop in the westbound transpacific refrigerated segment," said TSA-Westbound executive administrator Brian Conrad. "On top of expected organic demand growth in Asia and normal competition for equipment from other seasonal cargoes such as summer fruits, a shortage of refrigerated rail cars in the US is driving inland intermodal demand for containers and generator sets. "Premature scrapping of specialty refrigerated ships is drawing equipment to north-south trades, particularly Central and South America. Sustainable rates are critical to equipment availability in this environment." The members of the TSA westbound section are APL, CSCL, CMA CGM, Cosco, Evergreen, Hanjin, Hapag-Lloyd, Hyundai Merchant Marine, "K" Line, Maersk, MSC, NYK, OOCL, Yang Ming Marine and Zim. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
09-May-2014 00:10
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Main Menu
Air freight transferring to sea, study shows By Charlie Bartlett from London A study by transportation consultancy Seabury has found 100,000 teu per year of freight has moved from air to sea transport in the last 10 years. The shift, amounting to 5.4m tonnes of cargo since 2000, was attributed to advancements in refrigerated container technology, explained the report?s author Derek Brand, maritime advisor at Seabury. Had the proportion of cargo transported remained at 2000 levels, air freight would have grown at an average annual rate of 4.5%, rather than the 2.6% it has actually seen. ?A decade ago, tomatoes were just as likely to be transported by air as in a reefer container. Today, tomatoes are transported almost entirely in containers. The same holds true for numerous other perishable commodities. The volumes that have shifted to ocean transport are significant for the air cargo industry.? The transfer of freight from aircraft to shipping is a positive development for greenhouse gas emissions, with economies of scale resulting in far lower fuel consumption and emissions of pollutants per unit of cargo. Brand indicated that further technological innovation in reefer containers would increase the proportion of cargo carried on ships even further. The ability to dramatically slow the ripening process ?opens up ocean transport as a viable alternative to air cargo on some of the longer trade routes,? he concluded. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
08-May-2014 00:29
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Product tanker newbuilding binge could spoil recovery
1 Tuesday, 06 May 2014 | 00:00 The huge surge in product tanker newbuilding orders since the second half of 2013 could spoil a recovery in the market warns Banchero Costa research head Ralph Leszczynski. Speaking at the Mare Forum Indonesia conference in Jakarta last week Leszczynski said the market was now rebalancing after several years oversupply but the rash of orders over the last nine months. On the demand side the product tanker market has on average seen volumes growing at around 5%. He said the market had seen healthy volume growth, increased distances and opportunities for triangulation. However, product tankers hit by and oversupply of newbuildings, which peaked at 18m dwt in deliveries in 2009. Deliveries slowed to 6m dwt in 2013, and combining with strong scrapping volumes fleet growth was down to 1 ? 2% a year. ?We are finally rebalancing, we are eating into the overcapacity,? he said. Newbuildings in the period 2010 ? 2012 were low with just 2 or 3 orders a month, but this all changed in the latter half of 2013. ?Then things went completely crazy in the second half of last year with 50 tankers ordered in one month, which doesn?t really make much sense,? Leszczynski said. Last year saw orders for 260 MR tankers and 56 LR2 tankers and the ordering trend continued into the first quarter of 2014. ?A sharp pick-up in orders is now possibly going to spoil the recovery, let?s hope this doesn?t continue like this,? he warned. Source: Seatrade Global |
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Lucky03
Elite |
07-May-2014 08:00
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TSA Carriers Plan Westbound Rate Hike for Meat, Poultry
Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor | May 06, 2014 10:37AM EDT 1 0 0 1 In anticipation of stronger exports to Asia and limited refrigerated capacity, carriers in the westbound Pacific intend to increase their rates on beef, pork and poultry shipments $700 per 40-foot container effective July 1. The 15 member lines of the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement Westbound section, in a release yesterday, said several factors on the ocean and land sides of the supply chain have come together this year to limit capacity in the reefer sector. ?On top of expected organic demand growth in Asia and normal competition for equipment from other seasonal cargoes such as summer fruits, a shortage of refrigerated railcars in the U.S. is driving inland intermodal demand for containers and generator sets,? said Brian Conrad, executive director of TSA-Westbound. ?Sustainable rates are critical to equipment availability in this environment,? he said. Asia?s burgeoning middle class has created a growing market for quality beef, pork and chicken products from the U.S. The increased demand for frozen and temperature-controlled protein products has stressed supplies of reefer containers. Furthermore, premature scrapping of specialty refrigerated ships is driving more business to the container-shipping sector. At the same time, most refrigerated rates for the protein cargoes are at their lowest levels in five years, Conrad said. TSA Westbound is therefore announcing the $700 per-FEU rate increase early to provide adequate notice for shippers that typically book export sales 60 to 90 days in advance, he said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @billmongelluzzo. |
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Lucky03
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07-May-2014 07:42
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Danaos Corp. is optimistic on prospects for the ship charter market as ocean carriers look to mergers and acquisitions and alliances to manage their costs and gain economies of scale.
Danaos CEO John Coustas said the containership charter market remains ?challenging? ? the company?s net and operating revenue both shrank in the first quarter ? but the charter market stands to benefit as shipping lines seek larger tonnage to reduce operating costs and keep pace with alliances like the still-to-be-approved P3 Network, which will deploy the largest ships of any major alliance. ?A successful operational consolidation in the liner industry and the rationalization of the liner services is a positive step as the industry will become healthier and the counterparty risk for charter owners like Danaos will improve,? Coustas said. ?The tightening supply of ships of 4,000 TEU and above has resulted in a rally in their charter rates,? Alphaliner said in its April 22-28, 2014 newsletter. ?The Panamax sector is finally benefitting from increased demand generated by new services and resumptions as well as services upgrades as rates strengthen. The 3,000- to 3,500-TEU segment activity remains subdued with little new business, although rates are also moving up for the vessels with the best specifications.? Alphaliner also said that Danaos is reported to have chartered its 4,311-TEU Derby D. to Hapag-Lloyd at $8,500, which the analyst said is a ?firm level? for a standard Panamax ship. NYSE-listed Danaos? net income slumped almost 50 percent in the first quarter as the container shipowner took a $6 million hit from the restructuring of Zim Integrated Shipping Services. Danaos agreed to cut charter rates on six 4,253-TEU ships leased to Zim in return for bonds and an equity stake in the Israeli ocean carrier following its restructuring. Adjusted net income declined to $7 million in the three months through March 31 from $13.9 million in the same period in 2013. Net income shrank to $8.4 million from $13.4 million a year ago. The Athens-based company?s operating revenue was 7.3 percent lower at $135.5 million, against $146.1 million last year. Danaos expects to cut its debt by at least $200 million in 2014 due to the rapid deleveraging of its balance sheet and the gradual expiration of interest swaps in the coming quarters. Contact Bruce Barnard at [email protected]. |
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