| Latest Forum Topics / OCBC Bank Last:23.94 -- |
 Post Reply
|
|
What is the magic in OCBC rising price?
|
|||
|
cheerstan2002
Member |
23-May-2013 11:40
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Agree. I guess we can wait patiently for 11.5 and then see how the mkt is doing then decide what to do next. For those who can go for long, i guess can see it break thru 11.2when investors are back after holiday .. Cheers!
|
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
octsky
Member |
23-May-2013 10:22
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
ocbc all time high cant break 1120 but also didnt drop below 1100. i got a feeling it is going to break 1120 and go higher. just a feeling, maybe wrong also. lol |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
|
|||
|
stockmarketmind
Elite |
23-May-2013 08:51
Yells: "stockmarketmindgames" |
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
I am turning bearish on OCBC. http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2013/05/ocbc-orchestrated-selling.html |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
Octavia
Supreme |
02-May-2013 12:37
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Singapore is no longer home to the world's strongest bank, according to Bloomberg Markets Magazine's third annual ranking of the World's Strongest Banks announced on Thursday. The rankings showed Qatar National Bank (QNB) supplanting Singapore's OCBC from the number one spot in 2012. OCBC, which had taken the top spot in the past two years, dropped to No. 2, followed by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in third place. The three local banks stayed within the top ten rankings, however. DBS Group moved up to No. 5 in 2012, from No.8 previously, while UOB moved up one spot to No. 6. The last Asian bank to make it to the top ten was Hong Kong's Hang Seng Bank at No. 10. For the rankings, Bloomberg Markets Magazine evaluated 78 banks with total assets of at least US$100 billion at mid-March, and took into consideration five ratios: the banks' Tier-1 capital to risk-weighted assets non-performing assets to total assets reserves for loan losses to non-performing assets deposits to funding and efficiency (costs to revenue). |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
krisluke
Supreme |
02-May-2013 11:47
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
What is the news?
OCBC reported 1Q13 net profit of S$696 million. This was within our estimates. NIMs were a disappointment at 1.64%, lower 6bps q-q, and 22bps y-y. Wealth management fees however grew strongly. Contributions from non-participating funds, and net trading income were lower q-q from a high base. Loans allowance was low at S$21 million while credit quality remains strong. How do we view this?Net profit was within our estimates due to lower than expected net trading income, but lower loans allowance made. Management guide NIMs to be stable at 1.64% for FY2013, and Wealth management growth to be strong. Geographically, growth in Greater China, Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to increase, as management allocates more resources to these key markets. Management is of the view that Fed rates may increase before FY15 end. We expect a significant increase in interest rates to be a positive catalyst for the bank, although credit cost may rise. We continue to expect negative y-y growth of core net profit, due to FY2012’s high net trading income and our forecast for flat net interest income growth. Investment Actions?We factor in 1Q13 earnings, including the lower NIMs and lower loans allowance. Base on these adjustments, we revise our FY2013 EPS to S$0.75, and BVPS to S$6.96. Based on an unchanged P/B multiple of 1.25X, we obtained a new target price of S$8.70. Base on current share price, we maintain our “Reduce” call. Source: PhillipCapital Research - 2 May 2013 |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
|
|||
|
krisluke
Supreme |
02-May-2013 11:18
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
March banking statistics largely mirrored that of Feb 2013. DBU and ACU loans rose 15% y-o-y with DBU loans expanding by 20% y-o-y, thanks to the business segment, while ACU loans rose 10% y-o-y. Housing loan growth remained healthy (+16% y-o-y), although growth would likely begin to moderate in 2H13 once the recent cooling measures start to filter through. Neutral call on the sector maintained.
¨ DBU + ACU loans up 15% y-o-y. March 2013 banking statistics largely mirrored that of the previous month. Domestic banking unit (DBU) and Asian currency units (ACU) loans expanded by 15% y-o-y (+2% m-o-m) vs. Feb 2013: +15% y-o-y +1% m-o-m. DBU loans expanded by 20% y-o-y (+1.5% m-o-m) while ACU loans rose 10% y-o-y (+2% m-o-m). Overall growth was balanced between loans to businesses and consumers, each up 15% y-o-y.
¨ DBU loans to businesses still strong. March 2013 DBU loans growth was still driven by business loans (+23% y-o-y +2% m-o-m), particularly loans to businesses in the manufacturing (+66% y-o-y) and general commerce (+28% y-o-y) sectors. Meanwhile, consumer loans growth was stable at 15% y-o-y, with housing loans expanding by 16% y-o-y. We understand that the latest round of property market cooling measures have yet to be felt, with growth thus far reflecting drawdowns of loans that were approved earlier. That said, OCBC expects the impact from the cooling measures to start filtering through from 2H2013.
¨ Deposit growth eased slightly. March 2013's deposit growth stood at +8.9% y-o-y (+1% m-o-m), down from +9.7% y-o-y in Feb 2013 (+0.6% m-o-m). With the slower deposit growth (vs. loan growth), loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) inched up to 96.5% from 96% at end-Feb 2013.
¨ Investment case. Pending the results of DBS (Buy FV: SGD17.20) and UOB (Buy FV: SGD22.60)later today, we are maintaining our Neutral call on the sector. DBS and UOB are our top picks while we are Neutral on OCBC (FV: GD10.60).
 Source: OSK
|
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
krisluke
Supreme |
02-May-2013 11:17
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
OCBC reported 1QFY13 net profit of SGD696m (-12% y-o-y +5% q-o-q) with weaker income level cushioned by lower loan allowances. We are maintaining our Neutral call on OCBC, with an upgraded fair value of SGD10.60 (from SGD9.60). Despite the upgrade, the limited upside potential means that our Neutral call remains unchanged.
¨ 1QFY13 results in line. OCBC reported 1QFY13 net profit of SGD696m (-12% y-o-y, based on core 1QFY12 net profit +5% q-o-q). While this was 4% and 3.5% ahead of our and consensus full-year estimates respectively, when annualised, we consider the results to be within expectations. Annualised pre-provision operating profit was 5% below our estimates, but this was more than offset by low loan allowances, which we do not think is sustainable despite OCBC's sound asset quality.
¨ Weaker income cushioned by low loan allowances. Operating income was down 12% y-o-y and 5% q-o-q, impacted mainly by: i) net interest margin (NIM) pressure (-22bps y-o-y -6bps q-o-q), although Management thinks NIM could have bottomed out for the year ii) weaker trading income (-65% y-o-y -59% q-o-q) and iii) lower profit from life assurance (-19% y-o-y -15% q-o-q). On the flip side, loan growth was decent (+10% y-o-y +3% q-o-q) while loan allowances were low (-79% y-o-y -70% q-o-q), which helped support overall profitability.
¨ Mixed outlook ahead. While Management expects the re-pricing of the mortgage book to continue for another 12-18 months, putting pressure on NIMs, this would be compensated by the continued focus on growing contribution from overseas, where margins are higher. OCBC also thinks the likelihood of rates rising has been pushed back, following Japan's aggressive monetary easing. Meanwhile, loans growth is expected to be tempered in 2H13 when the recent cooling measures for the residential property sector start to kick in. Asset quality, however, remains benign and this could help keep loan allowances low.
¨ Forecasts. No change to our earnings forecasts.
¨ Investment case. We have raised our fair value to SGD10.60 from SGD9.60, after revising up our target P/BV multiple to 1.45x (1.35x previously) and a roll forward in valuations. Despite the upgrade, the limited upside potential means that our Neutral call remains unchanged.
    1QFY13 Results Review.
OCBC reported 1QFY13 net profit of SGD696m (-12% y-o-y, based on core 1QFY12 net profit +5% q-o-q). While this was 4% and 3.5% ahead of our and consensus full-year estimates respectively, when annualised, we consider the results to be within expectations. Annualised pre-provision operating profit was 5% below our estimates, but this was more than offset by low loan allowances, which we do not think is sustainable despite OCBC's sound asset quality.
Operating income was down 12% y-o-y and 5% q-o-q due to weaker net interest and non-interest income. 1QFY13 net interest income (-4% y-o-y, -1% q-o-q) was impacted by NIM pressure (-22bps y-o-y -6bps q-o-q) due to lower asset yields resulting from the low interest rate environment, reduced gapping opportunities and re-pricing of existing housing loans in Singapore. These, however, were cushioned by decent loan growth (+10% y-o-y +3% q-o-q).
Management expects the re-pricing of the mortgage book to continue for another 12-18 months, but this would be cushioned by the continued focus on growing contribution from overseas. NIMs in Malaysia and Indonesia are currently around 2.2% and 4% respectively, which would help compensate for the margin pressure faced domestically. On the whole, OCBC thinks NIM has likely bottomed out for the year. Finally, OCBC thinks any rate increase is now likely to be pushed back following Japan's aggressive monetary easing,
1QFY13 non-interest income was also softer (-15% y-o-y, ex-divestment gains -11% q-o-q) mainly due to weaker trading income (-65% y-o-y -59% q-o-q) and lower profit from life assurance (-19% y-o-y -15% q-o-q) due to lower mark-to-market (mtm) investment gains in GEH's non-participating funds. Fee income (+15% y-o-y +4 q-o-q), however, was a bright spot, thanks mainly to wealth management. The three main markets where OCBC is seeing good traction in wealth management are Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Overall, non-interest income contribution slipped to 42.6% in 1QFY13 vs. 1QFY12: 45.4% 4QFY12: 45.1%.
Overheads were generally under control, down 7% q-o-q with lower costs across the board but up 8% y-o-y due to higher personnel cost (mainly in Malaysia and Indonesia). Management guided for expenses to pick up ahead as IT investments will be ramped up, but overall, the rise should be capped at around high single digits. 1QFY13 cost-to-income ratio (CIR) stood at 42.3% as compared to 35.9% in 1QFY12 (4QFY12: 43.1%).
Loan allowances were a bright spot in 1QFY13, at just SGD21m (-79% y-o-y -70% q-o-q). Specific allowances stood at a mere 1bp (1QFY12: 13bps 4QFY12: 10bps) due to lower allowances and higher recoveries while portfolio allowances was down around 60% y-o-y and q-o-q. According to management, asset quality remains benign with no systemic issues noted thus far. Thus, despite the weaker pre-provision operating profit (-18% y-o-y, ex-divestment gains -4% q-o-q), the low loan allowances helped support 1QFY13 profitability.
Annualised gross loan growth was 12% (+10% y-o-y), ahead of the high single-digit guidance and our 7% assumption. The latest round of cooling measures for the residential property market is only expected to impact mortgage originations from 2H13, leading to slower loan growth. Hence, OCBC maintained their loan growth guidance.
Y-o-Y growth was led by housing loans and loans to building and construction while by geography, growth was led by the local and Malaysian operations. Meanwhile, total customer deposits expanded by an annualised pace of 9% (+7% y-o-y), resulting in the group LDR inching up q-o-q to 87% from 86.2% at end-2012. This, however, was still within the 85-90% comfort zone. More importantly, CASA growth was a robust 13% (+20% y-o-y), annualised, which helped push group CASA ratio to 51% at end-Mar 2013 (end-2012: 50.6%). The improvement came mainly from Singapore and management thinks the CASA ratio can be sustained ahead.
Asset quality improved further with absolute gross NPLs down 5% q-o-q to SGD1.1bn while the gross NPL ratio improved to 0.7% from 0.8% as at end-2012 (end-Mar 2012: 1%). Cumulative allowances were 149% of total NPAs, up from 142% as at 31 Dec 2012. Generally, management is still comfortable with asset quality and has not noted any systemic issues. Finally, OCBC disclosed Basel III CET-1/Tier 1/Total capital ratios of 16.2%/16.2%/18.1% respectively. Tier-1 and Total capital ratios were 16.6% and 18.5% respectively as at end-2012, based on Basel II. The q-o-q drop was mainly due to higher risk weights for exposures to financial institutions, equities and OTC derivatives, cushioned by the full recognition of revaluation surplus on all AFS securities as CET-1.
Risks
The risks include: i) slower-than-expected loan growth ii) weaker-than-expected NIMs and iii) deterioration in asset quality.
Forecasts
No change to our earnings forecasts.
Valuation and Recommendation
We have raised our fair value to SGD10.60 from SGD9.60, which takes into account the following: i) upgraded target 1-year forward P/BV multiple of 1.45x (1.35x previously). This is in lieu of the ample liquidity following easy monetary policies globally, which is positive for riskier assets and ii) a roll-forward in our book value to June 2014, from Dec 2013. Despite the upgrade, the limited upside potential means that our Neutral remains unchanged.
   Source: OSK
|
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
krisluke
Supreme |
02-May-2013 11:06
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Forecasts maintained. OCBC’s 1Q13 core net profit of SGD696m (+5% QoQ, -12% YoY) was slightly below our expectations on lowerthan- expected NIMs, but in line with consensus. Given expectations of stable NIMs over the next few quarters though, our forecasts are maintained and our TP is raised to SGD11.30 (HOLD) from SGD10.50, pegging on a higher P/BV multiple of 1.5x (1.4x previously), taking valuations up to the long-term mean for the group and supported by ROEs of about 11.9% for 2013. HOLD – prefer DBS for its more attractive valuations 2013: PER 11.5x, P/BV 1.2x, ROAE: 10.6%, yield: 3.4%) and the strong growth in its non-traditional income channels.
1Q13 core net profit declined 12% YoY in light of lower trading gains and weaker investment performance from GE. Core net profit rose 5% QoQ, but was supported mainly by lower impairment losses and lower tax - operating profit declined 4% QoQ. Positives include fairly healthy loan growth of 10% YoY, with growth rates of 12%, 14% and 18% for Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia respectively. Fee income growth was up a robust 15% YoY with wealth management income surging 42% YoY. Asset quality improved further, with its NPL ratio slipping to 0.7% from 0.8% end-Dec 2012. Credit costs, as such, were very benign. On the flip side, NIM contracted further to 1.64% in 1Q13 from 1.7% in 4Q12 due to a) ongoing mortgage repricing, b) limited gapping opportunities and c) increased interbank placements. Guidance maintained. Management maintains its high single-digit loan growth target for the year, on expectations that regional loan growth will supplement an expected decline in domestic mortgage demand caused by recent property restrictions (new originations are still expected to come off 20-30%). NIMs, meanwhile, are expected to be stable at current levels over the next few quarters, as management continues to drive growth in key markets such as Malaysia and Indonesia, where NIMs are higher, to supplement any further compression domestically. Source: Maybank Kim Eng Research - 02 May 2013 |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
|
|||
|
krisluke
Supreme |
30-Apr-2013 12:52
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Prices are attempting to clear resistance at $10.80. If this is successful, a measuring objective of $11.70 is indicated. Prices have been on a steady uptrend since breaking above $9.80 in March. Quarterly momentum appears poised to move out of a sideways range. If this materialises, it will support the next phase of the upmove. RSI is near the high end of its range, but there are no signs of a downturn. Price support is raised to $10.80, below which the upside target is no longer valid.
|
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
krisluke
Supreme |
30-Apr-2013 11:26
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
OCBC profit beats estimates as fees offset shrinking marginOversea-Chinese Banking Corp.’s profit fell less than analysts estimated last quarter as an increase in fees and commissions outweighed narrowing net interest margins at Southeast Asia’s second-largest lender. Net income declined 16% from a year earlier to $696 million, the Singapore-based bank said in a statement today. That exceeded the $640 million average of four analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Fee-generating businesses and profit growth from countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia helped Chief Executive Officer Samuel Tsien deliver better-than-estimated results as he grapples with Singapore’s slowing economy, diminished demand for borrowing and shrinking loan profitability. The bank’s net interest margin narrowed, while provisions for bad debts fell. “Fees and commissions were driven by wealth management, and we expect this segment to continue to be strong this year,” said Ken Ang, an analyst at Phillip Securities Pte. “The magnitude of the decrease in net interest margin was quite significant.” The stock rose 0.1% to $10.93 as of 9:03 a.m. in Singapore trading. The shares have climbed 12% this year, compared with a 6.6% gain for the benchmark Straits Times Index. HIGHER FEES OCBC’s net fees and commissions climbed 15% in the quarter to $316 million on the back of higher wealth and fund management income and loan-related fees. Non-interest income, excluding a $56 million gain booked in the first quarter of last year, dropped 14% to $676 million, led by declines in trading income and profit from life assurance. Great Eastern Holdings, the lender’s insurance unit, said last week that first-quarter profit decreased 21% from a year earlier to $207.5 million. Singapore’s banks have the lowest net interest margin in Southeast Asia at 1.94%, according to the latest data compiled by Bloomberg. OCBC’s net interest margin contracted to 1.64% in the quarter from 1.86% a year earlier, owing to Singapore’s low interest-rate environment and a “re- pricing” of existing housing loans, the bank said. Net interest income, the difference between what the bank makes from lending and pays on deposits, declined 4% to $912 million as growth in loans was overshadowed by the declining lending margins. LOAN GROWTH OCBC’S loan book grew 10% to $149 billion. Loan growth in Singapore during the first two months of the year averaged 19%, cooling from 27% a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. March loan data aren’t yet available from the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The bank set aside $21 million as provisions for loans and other losses, a 79% decrease from a year earlier. Its core equity Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 16.2%. “Business momentum is strong, and asset quality remains sound,” Tsien said in the statement. “We will devote additional resources to strengthen the group’s regional franchise to tap on the higher economic growth potential in our key overseas markets.” Singapore’s gross domestic product shrank an annualized 1.4% in the three months through March 31 from the previous quarter, when it rose 3.3%, the Trade Ministry said on April 12. |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
krisluke
Supreme |
30-Apr-2013 10:31
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, Singapore’s second-biggest lender, posted a 16% fall in first quarter profit, hurt by lower contributions from its insurance unit and weak interest rate margins. OCBC earned $696 million in the three months ended March, compared with $832 million a year earlier. Its profit was above the $656 million average forecast of eight analysts polled by Reuters. Business momentum is strong and asset quality remains sound, Chief Executive Officer Samuel Tsien said in a statement. Tsien, who took the top post a year ago after the retirement of David Conner, has said in the past that OCBC is looking to put more resources into Greater China and Indonesia. The bank earned 60% of its profit before tax from Singapore and 25% from Malaysia in the first quarter. Shares of OCBC are up about 12.2% so far this year, outperforming rises of about 10% by bigger rival DBS Group Holdings and nearly 8% by United Overseas Bank . DBS and UOB will announce first quarter results on May 2. |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
golfgila
Member |
26-Apr-2013 12:11
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Lousy Stock?? OCBC just hit 11.00. May go to 11.03 just before xd on 29.4.13. |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
|
|||
|
Listing
Senior |
21-Mar-2013 20:08
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
My original cost was around $5 after their last bonus issue ages ago... Afterwhich it rose back to the $9 level then kept bouncing back and forth above $10 and below $10. One of my friends play Ocbc this way above $10 he sells wait for it to be below $10 then he buys back as well as load up slowly and repeat pattern when it goes beyond $10. Stock not that lousy as there seems to be a pattern.
|
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
CapitalVia
Member |
21-Mar-2013 19:09
Yells: "FREE Trading Tips : t.co/6rspdLFgjT" |
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
need to go for gold..or wan recommendations |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
