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Qanghoo
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07-Sep-2018 14:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		My qn is - is there any big problem with the local bks?  DBS was abt 13 SGD during the height of the oil rout, n OCBC was abt 7.30.  But a lot of times, the px reflected a lot of scare mongering more than anything elso.  DBS was never exposed to abt 80 bil to the OnG sector, contrary to a lot of rumours.  Even now, I doubt if the bks are over exposed to the PRC.  They have ops there, but I doubt if the impact of a full-blown trade was, if it ever happens at all, is gonna pull down their profits drastically, despite  fear mongering surfacing yet again.  Remember, the PRC even without the current trade tensions was faced with a lot of structural economic issues over the last few yrs which cld n probably did adversely affect our local bks' ops there.  Yet, were their overall profits hurt too much?  DBS was all the time in the billion dollar club despite the oil rout n the internal PRC crisis.  As for properties, private residential loans will taper off somewhat, that' s for sure.  But what abt the fat loans already sewn up b4 Jul 6?  Do bear in mind that during the property-mkt recession between 2014 to early 17, bks were still able to actively deploy their funds n make fat profits.  Also, the constn sector as a whole might still be positive (BCA wld have the  guidance) n hence hank lending to the sector cld still be satisfactory at least.  My own sense is that DBS' 2018 profit is still likely to come in at ard 5 bil that' s a big plus as far as I' m concerned. 

Luzern      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 13:00) Posted:

At the height of the oil, gas & marine crisis, DBS had an exposure to this industry of about ~S$7B(recalling from memory, so might be a little off here on the numbers).  What were their prices then? (can see below).

If you scroll back to the ealier post in this Thread, you can see why I think the price is relatively high, considering the Banks' exposure to China and exposure to Building and Construction and Residential Mortages.  After Q4 results, OCBC at $9+, DBS at S$21+ and UOB at S$22+  is not such a distance possibility in my opinion. 

 

Luzern      ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 11:06) Posted:

For reference, at the peak of the oil gas & marine crisis in Aug 2016, DBS was at ~S$14.60, UOB was at ~S$17.50, OCBC was at ~S$8.30.
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shangli
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07-Sep-2018 13:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		banks recover a bit but i am hesitate to go in...angry

Luzern      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 13:08) Posted:

Yes, no news.......is good news.....we should be getting a relief rally of sort.  IMO, DYODD.

shangli      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 13:06) Posted:

no news on 200b yet
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 13:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes, no news.......is good news.....we should be getting a relief rally of sort.  IMO, DYODD.

shangli      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 13:06) Posted:

no news on 200b yet
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shangli
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07-Sep-2018 13:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		no news on 200b yet
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 13:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		At the height of the oil, gas & marine crisis, DBS had an exposure to this industry of about ~S$7B(recalling from memory, so might be a little off here on the numbers).  What were their prices then? (can see below).

If you scroll back to the ealier post in this Thread, you can see why I think the price is relatively high, considering the Banks' exposure to China and exposure to Building and Construction and Residential Mortages.  After Q4 results, OCBC at $9+, DBS at S$21+ and UOB at S$22+  is not such a distance possibility in my opinion. 

 

Luzern      ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 11:06) Posted:

For reference, at the peak of the oil gas & marine crisis in Aug 2016, DBS was at ~S$14.60, UOB was at ~S$17.50, OCBC was at ~S$8.30.
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Qanghoo
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07-Sep-2018 11:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Is there any problem with the three local bks?.  If at all, they have just signalled that they are in a stronger position than, say a few qtrs ago at the height of the oil rout.  N their latest announcements, including improved div, were made after the now imfamous PCM of 6 July.  True, with donald duck' s  crazy impulse, challenges are heightening.    But surely  the bks' highly talented n  richly paid  management are there to  respond to these.  Otherwise, anyone  in the street can be their CEOs !!!!   Personally, I think  It' s  largely people with muscles finding excuses to direct px every which way they can for reasons best known to themselves. 

N by the way, the local mkt here is faring worse than Jakarta which is  supposed to be more vulnarable to emerging mkt contagion.  Why? 

Luzern      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 11:19) Posted:

The same applies for OCBC and UOB.  For Holders, it is likely to be a painful ride down, so if you are still holding, be prepare for the mental tests.  I expect another 10% correction (from here)  for the banks at least when Q4 result is out.  For punters, enjoy trading the waves.
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................

Luzern         ( Date: 23-Aug-2018 15:36) Posted:

So for potential retail investors of DBS, I urge you to hold your purchase, wait till at least Q3 result is out, or better still Q4 result (as Q3 will not give you the true picture of the effect of the Cooling Measures due to the last minutes property buyers just before the implementation. If you are hardworking, you can look at the data from the properties sales for Aug and Sept 2018 to judge for yourself the impact of the coooling measures) before you go long on this for long term/investment play.  For punters..... have fun........ trading the waves and news......laugh

 

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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 11:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The same applies for OCBC and UOB.  For Holders, it is likely to be a painful ride down, so if you are still holding, be prepare for the mental tests.  I expect another 10% correction (from here)  for the banks at least when Q4 result is out.  For punters, enjoy trading the waves.
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Luzern         ( Date: 23-Aug-2018 15:36) Posted:

So for potential retail investors of DBS, I urge you to hold your purchase, wait till at least Q3 result is out, or better still Q4 result (as Q3 will not give you the true picture of the effect of the Cooling Measures due to the last minutes property buyers just before the implementation. If you are hardworking, you can look at the data from the properties sales for Aug and Sept 2018 to judge for yourself the impact of the coooling measures) before you go long on this for long term/investment play.  For punters..... have fun........ trading the waves and news......laugh

 
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shangli
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07-Sep-2018 11:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		thanks. less than 1 hour to go

Luzern      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 11:12) Posted:

Usually after 12.01pm.  Shoud hit the news outlets by 12.05pm.

shangli      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 11:08) Posted:

what time we know the 200b implementation result
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 11:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Usually after 12.01pm.  Shoud hit the news outlets by 12.05pm.

shangli      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 11:08) Posted:

what time we know the 200b implementation result?

Luzern      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 09:29) Posted:

If the US$200B is not implemented today, we are likely to get a relief rally.  As the delay might suggest that Trump is making some headway with China or he is having a re-think.  Too bad, we will only know at 12.01pm our SGX lunch break
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shangli
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07-Sep-2018 11:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		what time we know the 200b implementation result?

Luzern      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 09:29) Posted:

If the US$200B is not implemented today, we are likely to get a relief rally.  As the delay might suggest that Trump is making some headway with China or he is having a re-think.  Too bad, we will only know at 12.01pm our SGX lunch break.

Luzern      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 09:02) Posted:

12:01pm .....and we will know  will US be implementing the US$200B today.          I will be at least clearing some of my Banks Shorts before that.    DYODD.
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 10:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		cheeky

Luzern         ( Date: 16-Aug-2018 16:47) Posted:
 
whichever way i see this, the team overseeing these buy backs are likely to get " buttered" during the next AGM........ the 2 top question to be ask  are.......

1) Why buy back now when you could have buy back at lower prices?
2) Is there no better use for the million$ you spend on buy back of shares?.......S$76millions (S$188.24M now)  and counting..........and opportunity cost of ~S$4.5 million(S$11.29M now)  (at 6% interest) and counting...this plus the likely weakening DBS share price [7,454,800 x (S$25.25 - S$25.36) = $6.635M paper loss so far].


Luzern      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 10:21) Posted:

DBS did share buy back yesterday:

650,000 share
24.41 - 24.74
$16,006,849.03
Average: $24.626
...................................................
Tota Buy Back so far: 7,454,800
Estimated Average price: S$25.25
Estimated MOney Spend: S$188.24Millions
Percentage of Max Buy Back allowed (51,277,414): 14.54%
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 10:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		DBS did share buy back yesterday:

650,000 share
24.41 - 24.74
$16,006,849.03
Average: $24.626
...................................................
Tota Buy Back so far: 7,454,800
Estimated Average price: S$25.25
Estimated MOney Spend: S$188.24Millions
Percentage of Max Buy Back allowed (51,277,414): 14.54%
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 10:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Based on 2017 trade data, US can impose tariff on a maximum of US$505B value in goods from China.  That is, after the US$200B, Trump can still impose another US$255B if he choose to.
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 09:36     
 
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 Alert Admin
So USD vs CNY at 7 is the trigger for more Mkt correction.

" China' s leadership is prepared to let the country' s currency weaken to support its exporters as global trade tensions deepen, experts told CNBC.
But, they said, Beijing will prevent any disorderly depreciation in.......... beyond 7, a politically sensitive level upon which Washington may seize to label China a currency manipulator."
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 09:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If the US$200B is not implemented today, we are likely to get a relief rally.  As the delay might suggest that Trump is making some headway with China or he is having a re-think.  Too bad, we will only know at 12.01pm our SGX lunch break.

Luzern      ( Date: 07-Sep-2018 09:02) Posted:

12:01pm .....and we will know  will US be implementing the US$200B today.          I will be at least clearing some of my Banks Shorts before that.    DYODD.
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 09:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Germany alone accounter for ~US$68B of the trade deficit in 2017.

2017 : U.S. trade in goods with European Union



NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Details may not equal totals due to rounding. Table reflects only those months for which there was trade.
Month Exports Imports Balance
January 2017 21,221.3 32,633.5 -11,412.2
February 2017 22,898.6 32,379.3 -9,480.7
March 2017 25,804.6 36,895.9 -11,091.3
April 2017 22,878.7 35,460.2 -12,581.5
May 2017 23,714.1 36,512.2 -12,798.1
June 2017 23,663.3 36,203.8 -12,540.5
July 2017 21,462.8 34,961.1 -13,498.2
August 2017 23,388.2 35,706.9 -12,318.7
September 2017 24,263.0 35,671.2 -11,408.2
October 2017 25,608.1 39,363.2 -13,755.1
November 2017 23,572.5 38,261.2 -14,688.7
December 2017 24,793.9 40,584.2 -15,790.3
TOTAL 2017 283,269.3 434,632.6 -151,363.4
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 09:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Trump next target, Japan

2017 : U.S. trade in goods with Japan



NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Details may not equal totals due to rounding. Table reflects only those months for which there was trade.
Month Exports Imports Balance
January 2017 4,988.5 10,495.0 -5,506.5
February 2017 5,284.1 9,870.4 -4,586.4
March 2017 5,803.5 13,020.6 -7,217.1
April 2017 5,949.8 11,201.9 -5,252.0
May 2017 5,154.2 10,962.5 -5,808.4
June 2017 5,576.1 11,189.8 -5,613.8
July 2017 5,736.5 11,459.2 -5,722.7
August 2017 5,386.6 11,964.4 -6,577.8
September 2017 5,967.6 10,813.2 -4,845.6
October 2017 5,603.3 12,023.8 -6,420.5
November 2017 5,795.1 11,518.9 -5,723.8
December 2017 6,359.9 11,961.0 -5,601.2
TOTAL 2017 67,605.1 136,480.8 -68,875.7
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Luzern
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07-Sep-2018 09:02     
 
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 Alert Admin 		12:01pm .....and we will know  will US be implementing the US$200B today.          I will be at least clearing some of my Banks Shorts before that.    DYODD.
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Luzern
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06-Sep-2018 09:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		" China tries to prop up investor sentiment amid worries over economy and trade war with United States
 


Financial conference convened to help boost investor confidence but details on next steps yet to come
 
PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 05 September, 2018, 7:41pm
UPDATED : Wednesday, 05 September, 2018, 8:21pm
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Luzern
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06-Sep-2018 09:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The US$200B Tariff can kick in as soon as the hearing on the 6th sept 2018 is over.  That does not mean that it will be implemented immediately.  Looking at how messy the world is now, looking at the bond prices and Republicans defeats and dropping poll numbers, maybe, just maybe, Trump might soften his stand on trade  with......Canada, EU, China.

Luzern      ( Date: 06-Sep-2018 09:31) Posted:

Maybe the mid term election loses will soften Trumps stands on trades?
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