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Super Coffee
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SamuelJ
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14-May-2014 12:06
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1 for 1 will create more liquidity. The stock becomes cheaper to trade, so it will be more volatile, IMO. And yup I agree, retail investors dumping the stock out of some fear, Long Term investors and management dont seem to be dumping it. Coupled with Shortist playing, here you go, for the past 2 days, see what has happened. The drop in profits report was a good reason for them to sell. |
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danytan
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14-May-2014 11:59
Yells: "Up up and away!" |
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im not so sure if 1 for 1 will push it up
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Aberdeen123
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14-May-2014 11:48
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So much shorting shld be stablizing soon Retailers want to buy cheap for the coming 1 for 1 bonus thereafter it shld shoot up again. At least we know the company is profitable and siting on big cash surplus managed by a comptent Singapore team unlike s-chip like china fishery with huge debts. . |
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SamuelJ
Member |
14-May-2014 11:38
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Over Sold definitely. Too much heavy selling in 2 days with a moderate report of drop in profits compared to many other companies who have reported bigger drops in profits or even losses. They didn' t report a Net Loss, but a fall in profits, does not mean that the company is losing money. Short Term is always speculative. This stock is for Investors who are looking at the Long Term. Consistent Dividends and good Management. Too bad it is being played by Short Sellers these few days. |
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Jackpot2010
Master |
14-May-2014 11:24
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Cannot trust MBKE research. Suspect they were paid to write up. On hindsight their TP $6.00 (Sep 2013) was so ridiculous vs $2.97 (actual 14 May 2014). Unless they factored in M& A which is not substantiated.
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Novice13
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14-May-2014 10:56
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I think there are alot of sellers shorting Super Group now. If major shareholders step in to buy from open market, I think shortsellers will be busy covering back their positions. I believed that no matter how bad the conditions, Super Group shares price will rebound just like Linc Energy. Will be waiting for better price to accumulate more... | ||||
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lucky168
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14-May-2014 10:56
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As said before, SG is no longer a high growth company that can support its high pe value. clearly it is facing difficulties in its main mature market, valuation has to come down. just like wilmar, drop of 40% is nothing yet. |
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Jackpot2010
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14-May-2014 10:31
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Is it true GSH asking friends to support Super. From AR2013, his direct & deemed interest was 14.99% (but down by 1.22% from 16.21% a yr ago). No notice of sales in SGX. I think drink tea is much heathier than coffee. Already down ~40% from peak $5.05 within 1 yr.
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9hly99
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14-May-2014 10:16
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very interesting comments from lifeisgood... Maybank valuation model cannot be too far off...Super never fail to deliver...steady business model.... |
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danytan
Master |
14-May-2014 10:14
Yells: "Up up and away!" |
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how low will it go..... |
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lifeisgood
Supreme |
14-May-2014 10:05
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Supercoffee has run up too much. Sam Goi kept asking his friends to support. Now profits on a clear downtrend. | ||||
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danytan
Master |
14-May-2014 09:57
Yells: "Up up and away!" |
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Yup, massive selling down today. short term view is weak. |
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bishan22
Supreme |
14-May-2014 09:13
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SOS (Super over sold.) 
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Aberdeen123
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13-May-2014 14:20
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I think it is over sold by retailers.Profit down 17% dropped 16c.whereas Wilmar profit dropped 61% down only 12c and slowly recovering. |
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Markie
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13-May-2014 14:13
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That being said, one shld be mindful of stock trends because it is a good indication of buying and selling interest. Over a one or half year horizon u can tell the trend. Anw strong support at 3 bucks and do what out if it breaks
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Markie
Senior |
13-May-2014 13:59
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In investing, I believe u shld adopt a 2 step approach. First: scan out good and well managed companies. Second: stable and predictable earnings growth companies.
I do agree that super is a good company. The team is effective in delivering strong earnings for the past few years. However, you have to be mindful that no matter how strong a management team, it is still highly affected by externalities. Given that super does not operate in a monopolistic environment, it is easily prone to negative externalities which is what it is current facing: stronger competitors and rising raw material prices. I think many people want to buy low and sell high. So it does makes sense for people to sell when earnings don't deliver and buy when a recovery is imminent. At current prices 3.20+, based on its latest results and annualising it's earnings, at most optimistic levels PE is still above 20. Which doesn't sound cheap for a company facing lower earnings growth and current negative externalities. When earnings fall by 17 percent, in fact u shld expect stock prices to fall by 17 percent to reflect a constant PE, ceteris peribus.
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SamuelJ
Member |
12-May-2014 23:53
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Actually if you' re Investing in this company its a good investment. It will go a long way if you have holding power. I mean they pay decent dividends and this is one key indicator of a financially healthy company. Short term wise, speculators just speculate prices. |
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Jackpot2010
Master |
12-May-2014 20:58
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If one disregard the peak of $5.05, price was quite steady ~$3.50 for some time (before ex-div 7c & 1Q results). Sad, just vested around 3.50 weeks ago, sudden drop to $3.23 - paper loss already few k. Likely to break 52-week low of $3.03 if negative sentiment prevail & major shareholders or co did not buy back shares to support px. Such big drop is quite unexpected considering ~61% held by strong major shareholders + 1 institutional investor (i.e. Capital Group holding 9.05%). All the selling maybe coming from retailers (public holding ~30%) b' cos hope of M& A has faded after rumours surfaced more than half yr ago without any definitive news. Looking at the historical chart below, many ppl could be stucked at higher px ($5.05 was 52-week high). |
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SamuelJ
Member |
12-May-2014 20:46
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i agree with investors weakening the price in anticipation for the 1:1 which is very soon. Probably will dip a little further, but once 1:1 is realized. It' s gonna shoot up like never seen before. |
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9hly99
Veteran |
12-May-2014 20:28
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many of them want to weaken the price to buy the share for 1 : 1 bonus...so i will not expect it to go down temporarily.... |
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