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China Fishery - Low PE
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Lucky03
Elite |
29-Apr-2014 07:29
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PUBLISHED APRIL 29, 2014
IMF sees growth across Asia at 5.5% this year But it warns outlook could change with a sudden tightening in global liquidity BYANTHONY ROWLEYIN TOKYO The report says that China's growth will moderate to 7.5 per cent this year (from 7.7 per cent last year), and then to 7.3 per cent next year - PHOTO: REUTERS GROWTH across Asia should remain steady at around 5.5 per cent overall this year and the next, as advanced economies "turn the corner" towards recovery and fuel global demand, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday. But it warned that this rosy scenario could go badly wrong if the tightening in global liquidity occurs more suddenly and sharply than expected, and if China's economic slowdown proves more serious than projected. The IMF, which made this assessment in its regional economic outlook report for Asia and the Pacific launched in Hong Kong yesterday, flagged a host of potentially dangerous shoals confronting Asian economies the tide of global liquidity receding could create fresh turbulence in global capital flows, asset prices and interest rates, it said. The report is the first issued under the watch of Changyong Rhee, the IMF's new head of its Asia and Pacific department who used to be the chief economist at the Asian Development Bank. |
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Demostation
Supreme |
29-Apr-2014 07:06
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Not time to promote NOL yet. Let it settle down firmly so that in future the price will be unshaky. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
29-Apr-2014 00:27
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it all boil down to tthis week US economy data, lot of stuff coming out job data, PMI, 1Q GDP number etc. Looking at SFCI also don help in future forcast as it is reflecting current demand/supply situation. So the most reliable source of future demand forcast is US economy data. Advice is stay away till 1Q result out and if u still hanging on , hold on cos there is more upside than down side for ship this year. SMRT still going strong, big funds supporting it on privatisation rumor. Again Ship is high beta stock can go up very rapidly same when it go down, execise caution when trading. |
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stevenk
Senior |
28-Apr-2014 21:26
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Hi, possible to advise whether it is going down or up?
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-Apr-2014 16:49
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at most breakeven as only part of the 120K TEU charters are returned, but 2Q u would see a better gauge of ship future profit sustainability as most of the chartered had been returned and efficiency gain fron G6 in US trade lane. 3Q pray hard peak session returned to normal then it the usually quiet 4Q and 1Q. The big issue here is how much more can ship cut it operating cost due to the fact this year the transpacific chartered are all retired and US tradelane is the biggest contributor to ship revenue about 50%. Checking previous financial u can find that actually transpacific load factor kind ofsuck in the range of 85-88% meaning to preserve service quality, profitabilty suffered. Hope the G6 alliance would bring the load factor to 95% like what happen in asia -europe trade lane and help ship to save more on efficency gain while maintain service quality. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
27-Apr-2014 22:56
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Hopefully NOL can report similar return to profit for Q1 on May 14.
Samudera returns to the black in Q1 By Lee Hong Liang from Singapore Indonesia?s regional shipping firm Samudera Shipping Line returned to the black in the first quarter ended 31 March 2014 due mainly to lower cost of services. Net profit for the first quarter was registered at $414,000, rebounding from a loss of $4.42m in the same period of last year. Revenue, however, dropped 10.5% year-on-year to $86.22m due to lower contribution from both its container and non-container shipping businesses. Samudera?s cost of services declined 15.3% to $81.9m during the quarter, outpacing the revenue decrease. ?Cost of services for the container shipping business declined due largely to the rationalisation of services, lower charter hire rates, and lower stevedoring cost and port-related charges,? the company said. It added that operating conditions for the container shipping segment are expected to remain challenging in view of the oversupply situation. ?The group has taken steps to restructure its services by downsizing its operations on non-performing routes. With the expiry of long term vessel charter-in contracts, the group will benefit from lower cost of renewal. The group will be taking the opportunity to review its fleet composition,? it said. Published inAsia, Containers, Ship Operations Friday, 25 April 2014 01:15 |
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sgng123
Supreme |
26-Apr-2014 19:58
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NOL fortune tied with US GDP number, so just watch out for US 1Q GDP number out on May. Economist project a slow down to 1%-1.5% due to the bad weather but if that number surprised on the 2% + then hehe US economy can grow to 3% this year. Anyway US is projected to grow by 2.8% this year and 3% in 2015, if the recovery proved to be strong can easily revised upward. This would bode well for transpacific freight rate in 2015 May negiotation, This year rate most likely remain same as 2013 sadly, but cost saving should push ship to profit.
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Lucky03
Elite |
26-Apr-2014 16:43
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So long the US economy remains strong and still growing, the transpacific trade will improve.
PUBLISHED APRIL 25, 2014 US consumer sentiment up more than expected in April US consumer sentiment rose in April to a nine-month high as views on current and near-term conditions surged, a survey released on Friday showed. [NEW YORK] US consumer sentiment rose in April to a nine-month high as views on current and near-term conditions surged, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final April reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 84.1, beating an expectation of 83.0 in a Reuters survey and up from 80.0 the month before. The preliminary April reading was 82.6. The headline number was the highest reading since July 2013. "Perhaps the more important question is whether consumer confidence will show greater resistance to the backslides that have repeatedly occurred in the past few years," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement. "Resilience is dependent on positive long term economic expectations. While near term expectations have improved substantially, longer term expectations for personal finances as well as the overall economy have not improved as much." |
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ascend88
Master |
26-Apr-2014 14:51
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Bro keep up the good work .. I like reading ur post
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Lucky03
Elite |
26-Apr-2014 13:51
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Global economy continues to recover. Bode well for trades and ultimately container cargo demand.
U.K. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Rise as Growth Gains Momentum By Jennifer Ryan April 25, 2014 6:18 AM EDT U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rose in March as warm weather boosted spending on spring clothing, adding to evidence the economy gained momentum in the first quarter. Sales including auto fuel gained 0.1 percent from February, when they increased 1.3 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That compared with a forecast for a decline of 0.4 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Consumers led Britain?s recovery in 2013 and are set to bolster growth again this year as wage growth picks up and inflation slows, easing a five-year squeeze on living standards. In a sign that sales grew this month, the Confederation of British Industry said yesterday its retail-sales index rose to 30 from 13 in March. Today?s figures ?bode well for another strong quarter of GDP,? said Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank in London. ?With more people in jobs, wage growth returning and inflation coming down, the squeeze on real incomes has ended. Households need to dip less into their savings to spend, making the upturn more sustainable.? The pound rose after the data were published, and traded at $1.6820 at 11:12 a.m. in London, up 0.1 percent from yesterday. The 10-year gilt yield was down 3 basis points at 2.66 percent. GDP Growth In the first quarter, retail sales rose 0.8 percent compared with 0.6 percent growth in the fourth quarter, the ONS said. It will publish gross domestic product data for the period next week, which the Bank of England forecasts will show economic growth of about 1 percent, the fastest in four years. Retail output accounts for 5.7 percent of GDP. Retail sales rose 4.2 percent in March from a year earlier. Excluding auto fuel, sales fell 0.4 percent on the month and were up 4.2 percent from a year earlier. Food sales dropped 1.4 percent in March from February. Non-food sales rose 0.9 percent, led by a 3.1 percent increase in clothing, the biggest monthly gain since April 2011. Warm weather spurred demand for spring and summer fashion ranges, according to the ONS. A recovering housing market helped lift sales of household goods by 0.4 percent. Sales of auto fuel increased 4.8 percent. From a year earlier, non-food sales jumped 9.6 percent, the biggest increase since April 2002. The surge reflected weak sales the year before, the second-coldest March on record. The ONS said retail prices measured by the deflator, a measure of changes in shop prices, fell 0.5 percent in March from a year earlier. That?s the biggest decline since September 2009 and largely reflected discounting of auto fuel. Prices excluding motor fuel rose just 0.2 percent, suggesting stores are having to offer discounts and promotions to win customers. Marks & Spencer Group Plc (MKS) reported on April 10 that while its clothing unit had its best performance in three years in the quarter through March, it offered deeper discounts than anticipated. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
26-Apr-2014 09:27
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Singapore
SINGAPORE's Q1 GDP estimates look set to be upgraded, after the manufacturing sector grew by a surprising 12.1 per cent in March from a year ago, boosted by double-digit jumps in transport engineering and biomedical output. Economists now say the economy could have grown up to 6.1 per cent in Q1 this year - higher than the 5.1 per cent advance estimate released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) last week. The strong, broad-based growth caught economists off-guard the 18 who were polled by Bloomberg before the data release had a median growth forecast of 6.4 per cent. March's growth in industrial production marked the second consecutive month of double-digit expansion, following February's revised year-on-year pace of 13.1 per cent (previously estimated at 12.8 per cent). Though the biomedical manufacturing cluster grew 16.4 per cent in March from a year ago - helped by a 19.4 per cent expansion in the pharmaceuticals segment - it was not the sole driver of growth. Indeed, even if biomedical manufacturing were excluded, the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB) said yesterday that industrial production would have increased 10.9 per cent year on year. Output of the transport engineering cluster surged 29.4 per cent, boosted by its marine & offshore engineering segment. EDB said the segment expanded 45.1 per cent, with "several rig building and ship building projects achieving milestone completion" last month. All other clusters also expanded in March. Electronics production grew 8.7 per cent, driven by a 14.1 per cent output increase in the semiconductors segment. Expansion was also seen in the chemicals (5.2 per cent), precision engineering (4.3 per cent) and general manufacturing industries (one per cent) clusters. In sequential terms, manufacturing output outstripped market expectations of a 6.1 per cent increase from February, after seasonal adjustments. The nine economists polled by Bloomberg had a median forecast of 1.5 per cent month-on-month growth. Excluding biomedical manufacturing, output rose 1.6 per cent from the previous month, EDB said. With March's exceptionally strong performance, economists from CIMB, OCBC and UOB expect Q1 manufacturing growth to come in at 9.8 per cent from a year ago - higher than the official estimate of 8 per cent. In line with this, economists predict upward revisions in the government's Q1 GDP advance estimates, both in year-ago and sequential terms. New growth forecasts range from 5.5 to 6.1 per cent year on year (from the official estimate of 5.1 per cent), and 1.8 to 3.6 per cent quarter on quarter (from 0.1 per cent). ANZ and Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) economists noted that March's robust factory output occurred despite a sharply weaker non-oil domestic exports (NODX) figure in the same month. NODX fell 6.6 per cent from a year ago, against the 0.5 per cent growth forecast by the market. Said ANZ's Daniel Wilson and Glenn Maguire in a research note: "We still view the sharp fall in NODX as temporary and we will likely see that converging to industrial production, rather than industrial production growth down to the NODX growth rates." While BAML's Chua Hak Bin thinks factory output "should probably hold up", he does not expect the headline number to look as fantastic. "This (rate of) growth is just far too strong, and the base last year was low as well," said Dr Chua, who expects industrial production to average 4.5 to 5 per cent for the rest of the year. UOB economist Francis Tan is estimating a more modest average monthly growth rate of 4.1 per cent in coming months. At the same time, CIMB's Song Seng Wun and DBS's Irvin Seah cautioned against getting carried away with March's bullish showing, given that the broad-based growth was largely driven by unpredictable segments. Of the 12.1 per cent increase in March's factory output, Mr Song estimates that almost 5 percentage points came from transport engineering, while the biomedical manufacturing cluster contributed about 4 percentage points. Added Mr Seah: "Biomedical manufacturing (has a reputation for) being volatile, and the push from the (marine & offshore engineering segment) is a factor that tends to be a bit lumpy. When orders are delivered, you'll see this sort of jump - but that's not going to happen all the time." |
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alexsmith
Member |
25-Apr-2014 22:02
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Sgng123, you shouldn' t waste your time here anymore. You should put all in to buy according to your guess since you are so confident. All in for SMRT & NOL. or SIA? |
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Demostation
Supreme |
25-Apr-2014 18:38
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I will only buy if below 1 dollar. Will buy near recent low should I wish to re-enter when fundamentals improve. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
25-Apr-2014 18:29
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smrt go up 4%, fund are covering their short position soon and when done, temasek/gic would act. Privatisation of SMRT, end of fat dividend for SMRT share holder and returns the benefits to all commuters. Let us guess what is the takeover price, i put it at $1.80 everyone make a guess lol. Hope the next one would be NOL and our good friend Kim (Col ng) would divest away all non core asset and unlock true value of ship and privatisation by Temasek. End of state transport listing in Singapore and soon SIA would follow. |
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ascend88
Master |
25-Apr-2014 16:48
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i agree.....but...my view.... u dun waste a 3* scholar general in a closing down company... thomas train cheonging at the moment....
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sgng123
Supreme |
25-Apr-2014 16:41
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Well u don place a 3 star general there just for show, something bigger is happening and u need peep u can trust to carry out the task. SMRT share price did not correct much today after SGX query so guess it must be big fund buying up and holding it. IF next week SMRT continue it upward trend for no reason, take care it another OLAM coming Temasek would just announce a takeover price and deal would close cos it control > 50% of shares holding and all his kakee would sell to the government. The shortist killing spree continue and who is next in line, SIA, NOL ,SMRT guess guess guess lol |
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ascend88
Master |
25-Apr-2014 14:42
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many things similar between NOL and SMRT... for 1 thing....both have ex General as CEO..... :) |
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sgng123
Supreme |
25-Apr-2014 13:15
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if the cost saving from fleet renewal succeed then u would look back and curse why u sell so fast lol. ship is for investors who can take big paper losses and willing to wait out the storm. the historical price range had indicated as long u can wait out u would win big when world economy recovered. Now just 1-2 more quarters then ship would be back to profit provided no more crisis coming out from developed countries and freight rate stablises. SMRT surges yesterday most likely due to privatisation speculation and hope the current speculation fever continue, good for short term trading profit. Today ship volume sink and share price also go down so can be sure yesterday moves is by big funds hoping to catch on the privatisation wave, let see later whether they came in again to accumulate. |
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Demostation
Supreme |
25-Apr-2014 12:39
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NOL still in the red with losses and don' t know when can make profit. But the price has move above $1.00 which is quite marvellous. Sold mine at 1.02 and don' t want to look back.
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sgng123
Supreme |
25-Apr-2014 12:37
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ship drop a bit and it low volume, need to wait for ang moh in the afternoon. |
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