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CityDev
tongphlp
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27-Dec-2021 05:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Let' s see if Citi meant what they say....see how the price performs today...

PhillipTan      ( Date: 26-Dec-2021 23:27) Posted:

Citi recommends buying CDL and UOL on share price weakness after cooling measures announced

Citi Research analyst Brandon Lee has recommended investors buy into City Developments Limited (CDL) and UOL on the current weakness in both counters' share prices.

Property counters on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) declined in the morning of Dec 16 as the government announced another round of property cooling measures in the wee hours of Dec 15.

According to Lee, the kneejerk negative share price reaction to CDL and UOL are expected to be in the region of between 3% to 8%, which are similar to the drop seen during the cooling measures announced in January 2013.

That said, the drop won' t emulate the 14% to 16% dip following the July 2018 measures given the counters' cheaper valuations at present.

In his report dated Dec 15, Lee says he expects a " benign" impact on prices although he expects the en-bloc market to be dampened.

" With [the] removal of policy overhang, we recommend buying both stocks on [share price] weakness," he writes.

Lee has pegged a target price of $11.02 for CDL, which is set at a 25% discount to its revised net asset value (RNAV) of $14.69, " similar to where it traded at during the past few global downcycles" .

That said, the drop won' t emulate the 14% to 16% dip following the July 2018 measures given the counters' cheaper valuations at present.

In his report dated Dec 15, Lee says he expects a " benign" impact on prices although he expects the en-bloc market to be dampened.

" With [the] removal of policy overhang, we recommend buying both stocks on [share price] weakness," he writes.

Lee has pegged a target price of $11.02 for CDL, which is set at a 25% discount to its revised net asset value (RNAV) of $14.69, " similar to where it traded at during the past few global downcycles" .

UOL' s potential downside risks stem from a cap rate expansion amid rising interest rates, a sharp economic slowdown, a fall in tourist arrivals and corporate demand, and a prolonged period of existing cooling measures.

On the impact on the physical property market, Lee expects primary volumes to fall between 25% to 30% to 800 to 900 units per month, down from the existing 1,100 to 1,200 units a month in the near-term.

This is mainly due to the reduction of overall investment demand, which currently makes up 20% to 30% of volumes as well as decreased demand from Singapore PRs and foreigners (which average around 10% to 15% of volumes each) due to the higher additional buyers' stamp duty (ABSD) fees.

" However, similar to impact from previous measures, we think volumes could normalize to 900-1,000 units after 3-6 months, after buyers acclimatise to the measures amid still-strong fundamentals of the residential market and soft interest rates," says Lee.

" With a recovering economy and improving household incomes, we expect [a] limited impact to prices," he adds, noting that prices inched down some 0.7% over two quarters before rebounding following the announcement of the cooling measures in July 2018.

" The nascent recovery in [the] en-bloc market could be reasonably impacted with higher ABSD for entities, which alongside larger land supply, should mitigate further spike in land prices. We forecast number of Confirmed List sites could expand from [around] 3,500 units (average from 2019-2021) to [some] 5,600 units (average from 2014-2018)," he continues.

 

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PhillipTan
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26-Dec-2021 23:27     
 
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 Alert Admin

Citi recommends buying CDL and UOL on share price weakness after cooling measures announced

Citi Research analyst Brandon Lee has recommended investors buy into City Developments Limited (CDL) and UOL on the current weakness in both counters' share prices.

Property counters on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) declined in the morning of Dec 16 as the government announced another round of property cooling measures in the wee hours of Dec 15.

According to Lee, the kneejerk negative share price reaction to CDL and UOL are expected to be in the region of between 3% to 8%, which are similar to the drop seen during the cooling measures announced in January 2013.

That said, the drop won' t emulate the 14% to 16% dip following the July 2018 measures given the counters' cheaper valuations at present.

In his report dated Dec 15, Lee says he expects a " benign" impact on prices although he expects the en-bloc market to be dampened.

" With [the] removal of policy overhang, we recommend buying both stocks on [share price] weakness," he writes.

Lee has pegged a target price of $11.02 for CDL, which is set at a 25% discount to its revised net asset value (RNAV) of $14.69, " similar to where it traded at during the past few global downcycles" .

That said, the drop won' t emulate the 14% to 16% dip following the July 2018 measures given the counters' cheaper valuations at present.

In his report dated Dec 15, Lee says he expects a " benign" impact on prices although he expects the en-bloc market to be dampened.

" With [the] removal of policy overhang, we recommend buying both stocks on [share price] weakness," he writes.

Lee has pegged a target price of $11.02 for CDL, which is set at a 25% discount to its revised net asset value (RNAV) of $14.69, " similar to where it traded at during the past few global downcycles" .

UOL' s potential downside risks stem from a cap rate expansion amid rising interest rates, a sharp economic slowdown, a fall in tourist arrivals and corporate demand, and a prolonged period of existing cooling measures.

On the impact on the physical property market, Lee expects primary volumes to fall between 25% to 30% to 800 to 900 units per month, down from the existing 1,100 to 1,200 units a month in the near-term.

This is mainly due to the reduction of overall investment demand, which currently makes up 20% to 30% of volumes as well as decreased demand from Singapore PRs and foreigners (which average around 10% to 15% of volumes each) due to the higher additional buyers' stamp duty (ABSD) fees.

" However, similar to impact from previous measures, we think volumes could normalize to 900-1,000 units after 3-6 months, after buyers acclimatise to the measures amid still-strong fundamentals of the residential market and soft interest rates," says Lee.

" With a recovering economy and improving household incomes, we expect [a] limited impact to prices," he adds, noting that prices inched down some 0.7% over two quarters before rebounding following the announcement of the cooling measures in July 2018.

" The nascent recovery in [the] en-bloc market could be reasonably impacted with higher ABSD for entities, which alongside larger land supply, should mitigate further spike in land prices. We forecast number of Confirmed List sites could expand from [around] 3,500 units (average from 2019-2021) to [some] 5,600 units (average from 2014-2018)," he continues.

 
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pasttime
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25-Dec-2021 22:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		bro ETLee8, Merry Christmas.

u have gone thru cdl financials. what is your view of their asset. is it less, more, or much more then debt?
  few will form opinion about the financial health of an entity by looking at one side of financial alone.

one will also not just compare a person to be better or worse financially by the debt level they have against one another. it must be a balance view. debt versus asset. quite a few ratio were developed by financial people. like current ratio , quick ratio.

where do you think the hotel industry will be in 1 year time? worse, same or better then current?

best of luck bro.

ETLee8      ( Date: 24-Dec-2021 10:50) Posted:

As I slowly going through all the financials of all the SG property companies, I realised that CDL' s Financials at the moment is the worst of all of them.
A market capitalisation of about $6B, with outstanding loans unsecured loans of $12.6B not counting secured loans is mind bogggling.
Its peers UOL has about $2.6B unsecured loans, Bukit Sembawang has only $250M unsecured loans, Ho Bee Land has no unsecured loans all loans are secured, even Chip Eng Seng has very negligible unsecured loans, .. the list can continue 
CDL is my favourite and most people of my generation has a very good confidence in the counter.  However this is the new millenium where the investors are young and do not care about past accolades.
Trade with care, I see it weakening to $6 before any recovery starts ...
DYODD

pasttime      ( Date: 24-Dec-2021 08:06) Posted:

fast trading of crypto is like growing bean sprout. a few days can harvest.
long term investment in real estate business is like growing durian trees it take ten years before harvest time. after that year after year of good harvest. citydev is well past 10 years and is in harvesting years. now is like 1-2 years of strong wind with heavy rain so no harvest. after the storm good harvest will return. just a eat full full. talk rubbish only.
dyod
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ETLee8
Master
24-Dec-2021 13:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Merry Christmas to everyone.  Hope You make lots of money going forward,  Cheers!!!!!!!

ETLee8      ( Date: 24-Dec-2021 10:50) Posted:

As I slowly going through all the financials of all the SG property companies, I realised that CDL' s Financials at the moment is the worst of all of them.
A market capitalisation of about $6B, with outstanding loans unsecured loans of $12.6B not counting secured loans is mind bogggling.
Its peers UOL has about $2.6B unsecured loans, Bukit Sembawang has only $250M unsecured loans, Ho Bee Land has no unsecured loans all loans are secured, even Chip Eng Seng has very negligible unsecured loans, .. the list can continue 
CDL is my favourite and most people of my generation has a very good confidence in the counter.  However this is the new millenium where the investors are young and do not care about past accolades.
Trade with care, I see it weakening to $6 before any recovery starts ...
DYODD

pasttime      ( Date: 24-Dec-2021 08:06) Posted:

fast trading of crypto is like growing bean sprout. a few days can harvest.
long term investment in real estate business is like growing durian trees it take ten years before harvest time. after that year after year of good harvest. citydev is well past 10 years and is in harvesting years. now is like 1-2 years of strong wind with heavy rain so no harvest. after the storm good harvest will return. just a eat full full. talk rubbish only.
dyod
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ETLee8
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24-Dec-2021 10:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		As I slowly going through all the financials of all the SG property companies, I realised that CDL' s Financials at the moment is the worst of all of them.
A market capitalisation of about $6B, with outstanding loans unsecured loans of $12.6B not counting secured loans is mind bogggling.
Its peers UOL has about $2.6B unsecured loans, Bukit Sembawang has only $250M unsecured loans, Ho Bee Land has no unsecured loans all loans are secured, even Chip Eng Seng has very negligible unsecured loans, .. the list can continue 
CDL is my favourite and most people of my generation has a very good confidence in the counter.  However this is the new millenium where the investors are young and do not care about past accolades.
Trade with care, I see it weakening to $6 before any recovery starts ...
DYODD

pasttime      ( Date: 24-Dec-2021 08:06) Posted:

fast trading of crypto is like growing bean sprout. a few days can harvest.
long term investment in real estate business is like growing durian trees it take ten years before harvest time. after that year after year of good harvest. citydev is well past 10 years and is in harvesting years. now is like 1-2 years of strong wind with heavy rain so no harvest. after the storm good harvest will return. just a eat full full. talk rubbish only.
dyodd

pasttime      ( Date: 23-Dec-2021 08:23) Posted:

traders are not for real estate. real estate only move very fast up during time when market feel it is the time to go up. i once waited for a project to be launch for 6 months and miss the significant move on other projects.  singapore market is no more attractive for short term gain as too many restrictions to sell and cost is too high.
for real estate the true is if one buy , one must be able to hold. for most who buy out of their need of accomodations they make gain in $ term. 
if we see singapore developer most are able to hold on their projects and wait for good price to sell. 
if it cannot during launch their continue to build and when near top the projects will sell for the same price. no or little gain for early birds but generally no lost. 3-5 years are short term for property investors. 3-5 weeks are called long term for traders but that is not the time frame for real estate. 3-5 weeks go try crypto better. big win big lost in hours.
dyodd. 


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tongphlp
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24-Dec-2021 09:10     
 
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 Alert Admin

Singapore Property Sector - Coal For Christmas

https://research.sginvestors.io/2021/12/singapore-property-sector-uob-kay-hian-research-2021-12-17.html
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pasttime
Supreme
24-Dec-2021 08:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		fast trading of crypto is like growing bean sprout. a few days can harvest.
long term investment in real estate business is like growing durian trees it take ten years before harvest time. after that year after year of good harvest. citydev is well past 10 years and is in harvesting years. now is like 1-2 years of strong wind with heavy rain so no harvest. after the storm good harvest will return. just a eat full full. talk rubbish only.
dyodd

pasttime      ( Date: 23-Dec-2021 08:23) Posted:

traders are not for real estate. real estate only move very fast up during time when market feel it is the time to go up. i once waited for a project to be launch for 6 months and miss the significant move on other projects.  singapore market is no more attractive for short term gain as too many restrictions to sell and cost is too high.
for real estate the true is if one buy , one must be able to hold. for most who buy out of their need of accomodations they make gain in $ term. 
if we see singapore developer most are able to hold on their projects and wait for good price to sell. 
if it cannot during launch their continue to build and when near top the projects will sell for the same price. no or little gain for early birds but generally no lost. 3-5 years are short term for property investors. 3-5 weeks are called long term for traders but that is not the time frame for real estate. 3-5 weeks go try crypto better. big win big lost in hours.
dyodd. 

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tongphlp
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23-Dec-2021 11:46     
 
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New appointments

GuocoLand group CFO resigns, GuocoLand Singapore CFO Andrew Chew appointed as replacement

Atiqah Mokhtar  Published on Wed, Dec 22, 2021 / 8:16 AM GMT+8 / Updated 1 days ago


tongphlp      ( Date: 23-Dec-2021 09:05) Posted:

Learn from this...
 

ASTI Holdings



ASTI Holdings&lsquo CEO Dato&rsquo Loh Soon Gnee will cease to be CEO, effective 31 December, as he is among the affected personnel in the company&rsquo s retrenchment exercise, according to a filing to SGX Wednesday.

Loh, who holds 130.21 million ASTI shares, was appointed to the CEO role in 2020, the filing said.  He will remain chairman, the filing said.

Tigerzbeer      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 16:58) Posted:

Will the old management want to come back and work under an inexperienced CEO?
CDL future don' t look bright now...frown
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tongphlp
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23-Dec-2021 11:16     
 
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 Alert Admin

Broker' s Calls

RHB remains ' optimistic' on 2022 Singapore equity outlook

Atiqah Mokhtar  Published on Tue, Dec 21, 2021 / 3:05 PM GMT+8 / Updated 1 days ago

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/rhb-remains-optimistic-2022-singapore-equity-outlook

His top picks for mid-to-large cap stocks include Ascendas REIT, City Developments, ComfortDelGro, DBS Group, ESR-REIT, Genting Singapore, Raffles Medical, Singtel, ST Engineering, Suntec REIT, Thai Beverage, UOB and Venture Corp.

  For small-cap stocks, his picks include China Aviation Oil, Food Empire, Frencken Group, HRnet Group, Marco Polo Marine, and Prime US REIT.
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tongphlp
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23-Dec-2021 11:04     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Learn from this..
 

New appointments

Sheng Siong reshuffles board, appoints three new independent directors

Atiqah Mokhtar  Published on Wed, Dec 22, 2021 / 9:09 AM GMT+8 / Updated 1 days ago


tongphlp      ( Date: 23-Dec-2021 09:05) Posted:

Learn from this...
 

ASTI Holdings



ASTI Holdings&lsquo CEO Dato&rsquo Loh Soon Gnee will cease to be CEO, effective 31 December, as he is among the affected personnel in the company&rsquo s retrenchment exercise, according to a filing to SGX Wednesday.

Loh, who holds 130.21 million ASTI shares, was appointed to the CEO role in 2020, the filing said.  He will remain chairman, the filing said.

Tigerzbeer      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 16:58) Posted:

Will the old management want to come back and work under an inexperienced CEO?
CDL future don' t look bright now...frown
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ETLee8
Master
23-Dec-2021 10:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		When Covid became pandemic, their hospitality sector badly hit resulting in one-third of their total number of hotels closed for more than a year.
This is not minor but it is almost equivalent to SIA' s planes not flying during the pandemic.  Imagine no customers and yet hv to keep a skeleton staff to maintain the facilities including implementing controls and sanitisation, ...etc some may even hv to be renovated in preparation for market upturn  In short, a lot of cost involved.
If Omnicron continues and most countries starting to lockdown it would be worse situation
DYODD
 

ETLee8      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 23:31) Posted:

Its Financials  already did not look good the last 3 years, in actual they hv been trying to divest some of their assets particularly their hospitality sector.
However Covid came at the wrong time and divestment become less attractive as they are not many buyers unless u sell at a huge discount.
Then Sincere give them a huge " punch" making their debt at historical highs.
When Covid became pandemic, their hospitality sector badly hit resulting in one-third of their total number of hotels closed for more than a year.
It will be a long recovery going forward, at least 3-5 years if situation improves.
DYODD

Tigerzbeer      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 17:47) Posted:

It's a pity to see such a well known brand ruined by its 2nd generation...
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tongphlp
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23-Dec-2021 09:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		tks for clarifying...chinese calendar and english calendar different..lunar calendar also can....3 comes after 2...lucky one make it to 3...unlucky one stop at 2..:)

zillion      ( Date: 23-Dec-2021 09:41) Posted:

3rd generation not 2nd. Chinese saying wealth lasts for 3 generations 
 

Tigerzbeer      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 17:47) Posted:

It's a pity to see such a well known brand ruined by its 2nd generation...
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zillion
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23-Dec-2021 09:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		3rd generation not 2nd. Chinese saying wealth lasts for 3 generations 
 

Tigerzbeer      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 17:47) Posted:

It's a pity to see such a well known brand ruined by its 2nd generation....

tongphlp      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 17:02) Posted:

when did it ever look bright....?:)
true...they clash over differences in opinion...young inexperienced and refuse to listen to old..
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tongphlp
Supreme
23-Dec-2021 09:34     
 
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 Alert Admin
City Dev 13 Dec UOB Kayhian $6.99 $8.50 Buy


UOBKH another one...they call to buy so they can sell ah..

tongphlp      ( Date: 23-Dec-2021 09:29) Posted:

Why isn' t L& T buying ah.? TP 9.2? Ten years ah?
 
Counter Date Broking House Last Done Price Target Price Buy Sell Hold Valuation Methodology
City Dev 20 Dec Lim & Tan $6.78 $9.20 Buy  

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tongphlp
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23-Dec-2021 09:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Why isn' t L& T buying ah.? TP 9.2? Ten years ah?
 
Counter Date Broking House Last Done Price Target Price Buy Sell Hold Valuation Methodology
City Dev 20 Dec Lim & Tan $6.78 $9.20 Buy  
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tongphlp
Supreme
23-Dec-2021 09:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Learn from this...
 

ASTI Holdings



ASTI Holdings&lsquo CEO Dato&rsquo Loh Soon Gnee will cease to be CEO, effective 31 December, as he is among the affected personnel in the company&rsquo s retrenchment exercise, according to a filing to SGX Wednesday.

Loh, who holds 130.21 million ASTI shares, was appointed to the CEO role in 2020, the filing said.  He will remain chairman, the filing said.

Tigerzbeer      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 16:58) Posted:

Will the old management want to come back and work under an inexperienced CEO?
CDL future don' t look bright now...frown

tongphlp      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 16:50) Posted:

Bring in the old guards, maybe
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tongphlp
Supreme
23-Dec-2021 08:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Politics and dirty tactics....
No wonder there' s a saying that wealth never passes after the second generation or something?...

Silo1234      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 21:01) Posted:

--- Post Removed by User ---
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pasttime
Supreme
23-Dec-2021 08:23     
 
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Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
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 Alert Admin 		traders are not for real estate. real estate only move very fast up during time when market feel it is the time to go up. i once waited for a project to be launch for 6 months and miss the significant move on other projects.  singapore market is no more attractive for short term gain as too many restrictions to sell and cost is too high.
for real estate the true is if one buy , one must be able to hold. for most who buy out of their need of accomodations they make gain in $ term. 
if we see singapore developer most are able to hold on their projects and wait for good price to sell. 
if it cannot during launch their continue to build and when near top the projects will sell for the same price. no or little gain for early birds but generally no lost. 3-5 years are short term for property investors. 3-5 weeks are called long term for traders but that is not the time frame for real estate. 3-5 weeks go try crypto better. big win big lost in hours.
dyodd. 
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ETLee8
Master
22-Dec-2021 23:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Its Financials  already did not look good the last 3 years, in actual they hv been trying to divest some of their assets particularly their hospitality sector.
However Covid came at the wrong time and divestment become less attractive as they are not many buyers unless u sell at a huge discount.
Then Sincere give them a huge " punch" making their debt at historical highs.
When Covid became pandemic, their hospitality sector badly hit resulting in one-third of their total number of hotels closed for more than a year.
It will be a long recovery going forward, at least 3-5 years if situation improves.
DYODD

Tigerzbeer      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 17:47) Posted:

It's a pity to see such a well known brand ruined by its 2nd generation....

tongphlp      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 17:02) Posted:

when did it ever look bright....?:)
true...they clash over differences in opinion...young inexperienced and refuse to listen to old..
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newinvestor9999
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22-Dec-2021 22:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		the 12 early buyers will be very sad if they know that. Even if they give me 10% discount now from $3.2k psf i also not keen, fair value will be $2.5-2.6K PSF based on their land price of $1800+ PSF and 10%+ margin. Anything above that i can wait for subsale or resale. Just look at OUE twin peaks, St thomas Suites and 8@St thomas, generally there are very few projects that can hold above 3k PSF upon entering resale, the only few i know are around ardmore area. 

Lobster      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 14:16) Posted:

They are giving 5% discount now... that' s not all. Agent said if I really super keen, he can talk to developer and I can get another 2% less, one percent, he claims is from his agency commission. A lot of Korean drama and wayang now.

newinvestor9999      ( Date: 22-Dec-2021 14:07) Posted:

if they really planned for it, then i have to say they deserve it because greed kills. I will wait for first movers to enter and buy them out in resale 3-5 years later or wait for discounting
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