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Biz Times june 26..Valuetronics to expand Post Reply Rate topic
nqing87 Supreme	29-Apr-2018 12:04        nqing87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	" While the FY18 earning is due to released next month, no matter how I see it, it will just blow past FY17 revenue and it might even come close or even break the record high revenue of 2433.3M in FY14." I' m actually predicting a full year revenue of between 2900-3000M.. this is assuming that only the contribution from the dutch MNC lighting business is affected.. how i derive is as per below From info that contribution of the dutch MNC lighting business is 20-25% (i take 25% to be conservative), taking 25% of Q3 2018, this translates to 0.25x788=197M (round off to 200M) contribution to the revenue for Q3 2018.. and for Q4 2017, revenue is 636M.. assuming also same 25% contribution from Dutch MNC lighting business, that' s about 0.25x636=159M revenue from this dutch MNC lighting business in Q4 2017..  Analyst report from Kim Eng saying dutch MNC lighting business where they got their IOT bulbs from valuetronics has decreased 6% y-o-y reduction (ie we will be comparing at Q4 figures of 2017 & 2018)..  so taking this 6% reduction, 159x0.94 = ~150M revenue could be expected from this dutch MNC revenue for the coming Q4 2018.. so comparing Q4 & Q3 of 2018, we can expect a 50M decrease in revenue from this dutch lighting business.. assuming no growth from all other segments in valuetronics (we know that their ICE segment has been growing double digits % every year, but to be conservative we take 0 growth), that means Q4 2018 revenue could be 788-50=738M.. adding to 9M 2018 revenue of 2209M, this means 2209+738=2947M revenue for FY2018.. On the very negative side that dutch MNC lighting business contribute 0 revenue in Q4 2018, so this means a 200M drop in revenue compare to Q3 2018 (assuming no growth at all other segments).. this still translate to 788-200=588M revenue for Q4 2018.. this translates to 588+2209=2797M revenue for FY2018.. in this very worse case scenario, we will still see valuetronics having at least HK 45 cents eps for full year 2018 either way we will have a smashing record breaking results for valuetronics this year.. risk on my assumptions above is if the demand for valuetronics products are not linear with the results of the dutch MNC, and if the values given in the reports we read are false happyboy588      ( Date: 29-Apr-2018 10:08) Posted: very good analysis http://patiencemarketzone.blogspot.sg/2018/04/stock-incubator-valuetronics-sell-down.html?m=1
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Wind22i Supreme	29-Apr-2018 12:02        Wind22i About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dividend yield at current price is 6% https://www.dividends.sg/view/BN2
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Wind22i Supreme	29-Apr-2018 10:23        Wind22i About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes i think selling is a bit overdone.. Now can "watch" for a rebound next week..
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happyboy588 Senior	29-Apr-2018 10:08        happyboy588 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	very good analysis http://patiencemarketzone.blogspot.sg/2018/04/stock-incubator-valuetronics-sell-down.html?m=1
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WSJ.Shares Veteran	29-Apr-2018 00:06        WSJ.Shares About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	now like Great Singapore sale, maybe can target 0.40~0.50 good price to accumulate base on the many factor of this company sia Wind22i      ( Date: 28-Apr-2018 23:44) Posted: Now very cheap..can take a look..
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WSJ.Shares Veteran	29-Apr-2018 00:03        WSJ.Shares About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yes bro, i actually about time... not enter yet... looking at other component of this company.... hope to buy at it' s bottom low... i still think may go lower hotelgrand      ( Date: 28-Apr-2018 21:34) Posted: Why buy now ? Upside limited but bias downward..just be patient..cheap can become cheaper..best to avoid now if upside limited but downside no limit WSJ.Shares      ( Date: 28-Apr-2018 16:24) Posted: about time to enter :)
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Wind22i Supreme	28-Apr-2018 23:44        Wind22i About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Now very cheap..can take a look..
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hotelgrand Master	28-Apr-2018 21:43        hotelgrand About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	ST dated 28 April US may block corporate AI tie-ups with China..US may start scrutinising informal partnerships between American and Chinese firms in the field of AI..Huawei,Xiaomin,..Alibaba..etc companies that source parts from or to Valuetronics may be affected...reported that one of Valuetronics major customer was said to have poor sales..Valuetronics share price dropped from 95cts to 68cts..short term rebound due to short covering best to avoid ..
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hotelgrand Master	28-Apr-2018 21:34        hotelgrand About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Why buy now ? Upside limited but bias downward..just be patient..cheap can become cheaper..best to avoid now if upside limited but downside no limit WSJ.Shares      ( Date: 28-Apr-2018 16:24) Posted: about time to enter :)
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nqing87 Supreme	28-Apr-2018 19:40        nqing87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	it' s probably just some BB exiting and they want to take profit from the big run up this 1 year.. when big drop, many will exit also ' cos of margin calls etc.. now market sentiment is rather bad with electronic related counters.. 1 negative news and u see big plunge.. whatever news like trade war is just an " excuse" to try to explain the fall.. coming results probably will be weaker compare to the previous quarter, but comparing y-o-y with last year same quarter, it shld be having better results.. im guessing a 48HK cents eps for this full year results..  jamesng      ( Date: 28-Apr-2018 18:22) Posted: I read that trade war is one reason for the drop. Another is some believe that it is already at it peak. Next reporting is going to have lesser profit. But seem that Valuetronics is worse than others such as Venture, AEM etc I am tempting to buy but as this is cyclic stock, better wait for it to settle first. Most people in Valuetronics are still earning as most brought at low and I think they will sell at the indication that trade war or peak earning is over.  ​ Monitoring as of now.....
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jamesng Master	28-Apr-2018 18:22        jamesng About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I read that trade war is one reason for the drop. Another is some believe that it is already at it peak. Next reporting is going to have lesser profit. But seem that Valuetronics is worse than others such as Venture, AEM etc I am tempting to buy but as this is cyclic stock, better wait for it to settle first. Most people in Valuetronics are still earning as most brought at low and I think they will sell at the indication that trade war or peak earning is over.  ​ Monitoring as of now.....
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Sgvale Supreme	28-Apr-2018 17:08        Sgvale About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Suddenly many supporters n interest in Valuetronic. No see 0.60
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sengsk Elite	28-Apr-2018 17:03        sengsk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I disappointed last Bonus issue which I didn' t enter due to keep increase my fund towards UMS. Now, I think It should divert from UMS to Valuetronic. Hope my plan follow my prediction of direction. sky1983      ( Date: 28-Apr-2018 11:22) Posted: I also thinking of entering now. Seems like a good price to go in. If Monday able to hold at 0.64 then I will buy some to stock up sengsk      ( Date: 27-Apr-2018 23:37) Posted: At this price of 068 which is just the pull back from (0.77) last bonus issue price levelling . ( 0.77 x 10,000 ) / (11 ) = ~ 0.70 It may right time for buy 0.65 - 0.70
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WSJ.Shares Veteran	28-Apr-2018 16:24        WSJ.Shares About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	about time to enter :)
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nqing87 Supreme	28-Apr-2018 12:11        nqing87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	IOT lighting will be the trend of the future.. all our homes & offices will incorporate this kind of IOT lightings in future.. still much room for growth
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sky1983 Member	28-Apr-2018 11:22        sky1983 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I also thinking of entering now. Seems like a good price to go in. If Monday able to hold at 0.64 then I will buy some to stock up sengsk      ( Date: 27-Apr-2018 23:37) Posted: At this price of 068 which is just the pull back from (0.77) last bonus issue price levelling . ( 0.77 x 10,000 ) / (11 ) = ~ 0.70 It may right time for buy 0.65 - 0.70
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Berani Elite	28-Apr-2018 10:57        Berani About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	if wait everything settle... this share left 30 cents only SuperLuckyCorn      ( Date: 28-Apr-2018 10:39) Posted: no reason...so when everything settle down, it may float up again. most important know what we can do, otherwise we will b dragged by them. jamesng      ( Date: 28-Apr-2018 05:21) Posted: Seem like reason for the drop might be due to trade war between China and US. How likely is that going to happen? Perhaps we can discuss it here......
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SuperLuckyCorn Supreme	28-Apr-2018 10:39        SuperLuckyCorn About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	no reason...so when everything settle down, it may float up again. most important know what we can do, otherwise we will b dragged by them. jamesng      ( Date: 28-Apr-2018 05:21) Posted: Seem like reason for the drop might be due to trade war between China and US. How likely is that going to happen? Perhaps we can discuss it here......
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jamesng Master	28-Apr-2018 05:21        jamesng About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Seem like reason for the drop might be due to trade war between China and US. How likely is that going to happen? Perhaps we can discuss it here......
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Wind22i Supreme	28-Apr-2018 00:28        Wind22i About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes this company is net cash..ie zero debt...n pays dividend regularly
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