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YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang
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samson
Master |
04-Oct-2013 00:10
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MAYBANK CCALL SELL TP + $0.98 OCBC : HOLD TP $1.04 Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Healthy order flow for replenishment ● Order book replenishment● Newbuild prices creeping up● Secures more contracts to provide work down the road Seeking sustainabilityFollowing the announcement of eight shipbuilding contracts in early Sep totaling US$214m, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) has secured 17 more contracts worth about US$871m, bringing total orders won YTD to US$2.096b. The 17 new contracts are scheduled for deliveries in 2015-2016, and provide much-anticipated replenishment of the order book for execution of orders further down the road ? indeed the company may have to rely on a higher volume turnover as it starts executing more of its newer orders (also lower-margin) to maintain the yard?s profit level. Meanwhile, the group still has a total of 28 options outstanding worth about US$1.36b. Newbuild prices see slow but steady
With a gradually recovering newbuild market,
we raise our peg from 8x to 9x P/E, while
rolling forward our valuations from blended
FY13/14F earnings to FY14F earnings,
resulting in a slight rise in YZJ?s fair value
estimate to S$1.04 (prev. S$0.99). While the
newbuild price trend of ships by Chinese
yards looks positive, additional monitoring is
uptrend FV to S$1.04 still a HOLD As Exhibits 2 and 3 illustrate, newbuild prices for bulk carriers in Chinese yards have been on a slow but steady uptrend since early this year. This has been more apparent in the larger ships, such as the Capesize carriers (e.g. US$50m in Sep 2013 vs US$45m in Dec 2012). Indeed, according to RS Platou1, spot earnings for Capesize tonnage rose substantially over the last month due to higher Chinese iron ore imports. The strength in Capesize has also influenced the Panamax sector positively as charterers started to take two Panamaxes instead of one Capesize when the spread in freight rates became greater than normal. In the longer term, a gradual recovery in the world economy should drive the demand for tonnage. Slight increase |
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shadow
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04-Oct-2013 00:10
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 Yangzijiang has become a market darling: At Deutsche's target price of $1.50, YZJ would trade at 10.5x FY13E PER. Photo: CompanyYangzijiang Shipbuilding replaces Keppel Corp, as we think order flow has better upside potential versus market expectations. The consolidating sector should increase its market share and a number of its 51 contract options issued should be exercised in the coming quarter. |
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bookwormy
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03-Oct-2013 23:28
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Everyday is a learning day with you around bro cheongsl! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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shadow
Veteran |
03-Oct-2013 22:55
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cheongsl , great job ! we need more people like you to provide us with greater insight to make trading decision. |
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ascend88
Master |
03-Oct-2013 22:20
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They like to buy when yzj is 2$ ... I like to sell to them at that price :) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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cheongsl
Master |
03-Oct-2013 22:08
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The most funny thing about Kim Eng Report is that it compare with 2008 for the contract price, where BDI is more then 10,000, currently only around 2,000. But they forget to compare the steel price in China in 2008 and current which is around 720USD per tonne and current is 491USD per tonne, don't forget USD drop alot in this period, thus the decline in steel price is even more. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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cheongsl
Master |
03-Oct-2013 21:52
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Container freight rates softening despite the surge in BDI. Despite the surge in BDI, when comparing over a longer time horizon, BDI level is still significantly below peak or even the more normalised levels of 2,000-6,000. Furthermore, BDI reflects the bulk shipping market and is not representative of the whole shipping market. The container shipping market remains weak as evidenced by the fall in Shanghai Containerised Freight Index. While Maersk has raised their demand growth in 2014-2015 to 4-6% from 2-3%, the increased capacity expected to come in from shipyards still far exceeds the expected demand growth given thet 10-11% growth in capacity this year. This creates a huge supply-demand gap which we believed continue to cap rate increases. BDI level above 1400 is consider good for shipping company already, but they are taking the over shoot abnormal period to normalize, thus consider below peak??? That means when the BDI is abnormal then we should consider picking up the share. This type of thinking is very funny to me? CCFI fall?? The index is hover around 1100 pts. Up and down, there isn?t any fall. Beside that Yang Zi Jiang order does not mainly come from the China shipper, why are they consider China freight rate.
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ascend88
Master |
03-Oct-2013 21:39
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Thats why yzj closed back at 1.135 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ascend88
Master |
03-Oct-2013 21:37
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Thanks bro cheong | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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cheongsl
Master |
03-Oct-2013 21:30
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Yes, it is possible to have +ve and -ve report as individual have different level of understanding to one situation. Eg. Kim Eng Report which mention as below. " BDI rise led by mainly by capesize rates. The positive expectation was fueled by a sudden surge in BDI. This may have been driven by Chinese steel producers restocking their iron-ore inventory and importing cheaper and higher quality seaborne supplies from Australia over domestic supplies. Historically bulker rates have been volatile and had rose during this same period at least for the last 3 years prior in the led up to Chinese Golden Weak. Furthermore, the recent rise was mainly driven mainly by rate hikes for capesize vessels. We are skeptical about its sustainability without convincing signs of an economic recovery. China?s September PMI came in at 51.1, below market expectations which cast further doubts on a sustained economic rebound." BDI is driven by steel producer restocking their iron-ore inventory??? and rose in same period due to Chinese golden week??? Lets take a look at BCI, the major increase is actually due to Atlantic Freight not Pacific Freight, if Kim Eng researches think that China is in Atlantic boundary then they better go back to secondary to study Geogarphy.
Rose in the same period 2010 is from Jun to Aug 2011 is from Jul to Sep 2012 is from Sep to Nov 2013 is from Jul to ?? China Golden week for national day is 1 Oct, does not see the consistency in their arguement. The rate hikes is mainly from capesize vessels? but when you computed the data you will find that Panamax size also contribute significantly to the increase.
They talking about PMI of china as they already focus the wrong area the rise was due to the atlantic transportation. That is why I am sketical about the report.
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ascend88
Master |
03-Oct-2013 16:26
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still holding on to 1.13... we will know who is the poker face.... |
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ascend88
Master |
03-Oct-2013 16:20
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fundmental is control by the management of company and the overall econmy.... sentiments...is control by ourselves...
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ascend88
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03-Oct-2013 16:17
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remember....stock market is not only abt fundamental of the company.....its abt the human sentiments too.... |
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ascend88
Master |
03-Oct-2013 16:12
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in every +ve report....its good to have a few -ve ones too.... at least it will bring some sense back to us.... if all reports are super good ...super +ve ...and all buy buy buy call....then i will be very scare... read and research more into it.... |
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
03-Oct-2013 16:00
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Hawkeye
Master |
03-Oct-2013 15:50
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You guys sound very bias to me. You can not accept any bad buy only good Dangerous. You are in Love with Yangzijiang? Fell in Love??
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shadow
Veteran |
03-Oct-2013 10:10
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moneycrow, i agreed.. " KE report on other hand seem bias............." |
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moneycow
Elite |
03-Oct-2013 09:44
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KIM ENG now belongs to Maybank ? You gotta do your own search for facts and figures...............Order book cannot fake............. writing can twist............
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shadow
Veteran |
03-Oct-2013 09:39
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So far from what i gathered at this point Kim Eng :SELL DBS, Deutche Bank, CIMB, Barclay, Credit Suisse : BUY CALL |
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moneycow
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03-Oct-2013 09:37
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A little messy on earlier post...................here is an extract................. Today?s Focus (yesterday) Yangzijiang ? Secured massive orders worth US$871m reiterate BUY, TP S$1.32 Yangzijiang has secured massive orders worth US$871m of contracts comprising: i) New orders for four 208k dwt bulk carriers (with options for two identical vessels) and ii) Exercise of 13 options including five 82k dwt bulk carriers, three 64k dwt bulk carriers and five 10k TEU containerships (Seaspan). The 208k dwt bulk carrier orders are the first capesize contracts for Yangzijiang, reinforcing company?s strategy to move up the value chain to build more sophisticated vessels. Prior to this, the largest bulk carrier Yangzijiang undertook was 95k dwt panamax. The contract prices seem in line with Clarkson?s average newbuilding prices for respective vessels. We understand the payment term varies but collection prior to delivery is at least 30%. These new orders have lifted Yangzijiang?s YTD wins from US$1.22bn to US$2.10bn, outpaced our expectations of US$2bn this year. We raise FY13 order win assumption to US$2.5bn in anticipation of more options exercising in the coming months. Yangzijiang has remaining 28 options worth US$1.36bn consist of 11 containerships worth US$0.85bn and 17 multi-purpose bulk carriers worth US$0.51bn. Our FY13-15F forecast are largely intact as the additional order wins are expected to contribute more to FY16 earnings. These latest 17 orders are scheduled for delivery in 2015-2016. Reiterate BUY with unchanged target price of S$1.32.
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