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Alliance Mineral....The Next Lap. Post Reply Rate topic
lukewong82 Master	18-Nov-2018 16:35        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	haha.. beginning to sound like a troll as he keep asking when so many ppl already given advice. maybe he wants to hear " AsianTV sure huat.. next time will see 25 cents, 100% dun nid to ask, go buy now!" Berani      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 16:20) Posted: so many ppl give the comments already. as I say no 1 can predict the movement 100%. to play save... cut 50% and keep 50% Brianfoo      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 15:19) Posted: Anyone please?
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Berani Elite	18-Nov-2018 16:20        Berani About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	so many ppl give the comments already. as I say no 1 can predict the movement 100%. to play save... cut 50% and keep 50% Brianfoo      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 15:19) Posted: Anyone please?
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Brianfoo Senior	18-Nov-2018 15:19        Brianfoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Anyone please?
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Brianfoo Senior	18-Nov-2018 14:13        Brianfoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Anyone has any comments?
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justinN Member	18-Nov-2018 13:29        justinN About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No money to pay dividend, where to find money to do sharebuy back?  Both distribution and sharebuyback has the same effect on their coffers.  lukewong82      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 13:06) Posted: i can quote u one company where the share buyback is useless ...duty free international.. only throw money down the drain nia sheerluck      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 12:52) Posted: I am pretty sure, reducing debt is not in their mind because first the spare cash that it generates cannot do much and second they are trust manager and not business founders/owners.  Maintaining the trust as it is is good enough for them to keep earning their manager fee.  Even if one day, the trust collapse, they will simply manage another trust.  Also their comments on their debt/cash management going forward said it all. Actually I think the share buyback hint might be a good idea now.  Previously cash is about 10% of market cap.  After this drop, cash is about 30% of market cap.  So a 10% share buyback will now cost them only one-third of their cash.  Ofc it will not be long-term solution to their situation but at least it offers some relieve to their suffering shareholders
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Brianfoo Senior	18-Nov-2018 13:13        Brianfoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The CEO himself hold so much shares and sure he will lost much too yah? He still holding on to it?
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lukewong82 Master	18-Nov-2018 13:06        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	i can quote u one company where the share buyback is useless ...duty free international.. only throw money down the drain nia sheerluck      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 12:52) Posted: I am pretty sure, reducing debt is not in their mind because first the spare cash that it generates cannot do much and second they are trust manager and not business founders/owners.  Maintaining the trust as it is is good enough for them to keep earning their manager fee.  Even if one day, the trust collapse, they will simply manage another trust.  Also their comments on their debt/cash management going forward said it all. Actually I think the share buyback hint might be a good idea now.  Previously cash is about 10% of market cap.  After this drop, cash is about 30% of market cap.  So a 10% share buyback will now cost them only one-third of their cash.  Ofc it will not be long-term solution to their situation but at least it offers some relieve to their suffering shareholders. lukewong82      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 12:30) Posted: share buyback is carried out best with spare $$$.. share buyback when the company is in tons of debts is not a wise decision i feel. The cash should be be handled conservatively and try to par down as much debt as possible. I dun think buying back some shares will help with the Distribution per unit share. If cash not carefully managed,  it will end up like Hyflux
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sheerluck Supreme	18-Nov-2018 12:52        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I am pretty sure, reducing debt is not in their mind because first the spare cash that it generates cannot do much and second they are trust manager and not business founders/owners.  Maintaining the trust as it is is good enough for them to keep earning their manager fee.  Even if one day, the trust collapse, they will simply manage another trust.  Also their comments on their debt/cash management going forward said it all. Actually I think the share buyback hint might be a good idea now.  Previously cash is about 10% of market cap.  After this drop, cash is about 30% of market cap.  So a 10% share buyback will now cost them only one-third of their cash.  Ofc it will not be long-term solution to their situation but at least it offers some relieve to their suffering shareholders. lukewong82      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 12:30) Posted: share buyback is carried out best with spare $$$.. share buyback when the company is in tons of debts is not a wise decision i feel. The cash should be be handled conservatively and try to par down as much debt as possible. I dun think buying back some shares will help with the Distribution per unit share. If cash not carefully managed,  it will end up like Hyflux. sheerluck      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 12:25) Posted: APTT is a high risk trust and it is a pity that mgmt choose to act so late and so drastically causing overall loses to many investors. Let examine it from various aspects: Business Revenue for Basic Cable TV is gradually decreasing due to lower subscription rate and steady subscription level. Revenue for  Premium Digital Cable TV  is steady due to lower subscription rate and higher subscription level. Revenue for Broadband is gradually decreasing due to lower subscription rate even though subscription level has increased. Overall revenue has been decreasing and seems set to maintain the existing trend. Cashflow APTT generates about $190mil each year for the past two years (2016 and 2017) from operation but spent: $100ml each year for investing and  $55mil each year for interest payment and $100mil each year for distribution. So there is a deficit of $65mil each year. Net borrowing was $140ml for 2016 and 2017. A more sustainable distribution will be $35mil or 2.5cts p.a. for 2016 and 2017.  Of course mgmt should phase this in since IPO rather than keep paying out unsustainable distribution to please investors.  The shock to the system with their sudden drastic cut is evidented from market reaction. Going forward So now looking forward, what are the info. Based on the decreasing revenue trend, operating cashflow is likely to trend lower as well.  Maybe around $165mil.  The likely spent maybe: $75ml each year for investing and  $55mil each for interest payment and $17mil each year for distribution (base on 1.2cts p.a.) This leaves about $18mil to play around.  Maybe retire some debt or so but really a small drop in the occean of $1453mil of debt. From Q3 comments, we can tell mgmt is not going to repay any loan principal.  All it wants is to refinace to eliminate the need to make significant principal payment for the next three years.  So expect debt to still be the same mountain.    It wants to extend the interest rate swap to 2021 to reduce the risk of risign interest rate.  So interest payment will not be reduced.  It doesn' t want to borrow more to fund CAPEX but the existing debt is enough to trap it into a prepetual bank slavery. So after three year in 2021 when all this arrangement expires, it will another round of arrangement to grasp for breathe. Others Also to note Taiwan tax rate has increased from 17% to 20% since 2018.  Another whammy ofr its already stressed balance sheet. And as Sing Dollar continues to appreciate against the taiwan dollar, distribution will be further squeezed. Any positive? Yes.  Mgmt hinted at potential share buyback as it deems it current share price undervalued.  But I believe APTT does not have a share buyback mandate so look out for one either in the agenda for the next AGM or whenever it feels to need to boost it share price.
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lukewong82 Master	18-Nov-2018 12:30        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	share buyback is carried out best with spare $$$.. share buyback when the company is in tons of debts is not a wise decision i feel. The cash should be be handled conservatively and try to par down as much debt as possible. I dun think buying back some shares will help with the Distribution per unit share. If cash not carefully managed,  it will end up like Hyflux. sheerluck      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 12:25) Posted: APTT is a high risk trust and it is a pity that mgmt choose to act so late and so drastically causing overall loses to many investors. Let examine it from various aspects: Business Revenue for Basic Cable TV is gradually decreasing due to lower subscription rate and steady subscription level. Revenue for  Premium Digital Cable TV  is steady due to lower subscription rate and higher subscription level. Revenue for Broadband is gradually decreasing due to lower subscription rate even though subscription level has increased. Overall revenue has been decreasing and seems set to maintain the existing trend. Cashflow APTT generates about $190mil each year for the past two years (2016 and 2017) from operation but spent: $100ml each year for investing and  $55mil each year for interest payment and $100mil each year for distribution. So there is a deficit of $65mil each year. Net borrowing was $140ml for 2016 and 2017. A more sustainable distribution will be $35mil or 2.5cts p.a. for 2016 and 2017.  Of course mgmt should phase this in since IPO rather than keep paying out unsustainable distribution to please investors.  The shock to the system with their sudden drastic cut is evidented from market reaction. Going forward So now looking forward, what are the info. Based on the decreasing revenue trend, operating cashflow is likely to trend lower as well.  Maybe around $165mil.  The likely spent maybe: $75ml each year for investing and  $55mil each for interest payment and $17mil each year for distribution (base on 1.2cts p.a.) This leaves about $18mil to play around.  Maybe retire some debt or so but really a small drop in the occean of $1453mil of debt. From Q3 comments, we can tell mgmt is not going to repay any loan principal.  All it wants is to refinace to eliminate the need to make significant principal payment for the next three years.  So expect debt to still be the same mountain.    It wants to extend the interest rate swap to 2021 to reduce the risk of risign interest rate.  So interest payment will not be reduced.  It doesn' t want to borrow more to fund CAPEX but the existing debt is enough to trap it into a prepetual bank slavery. So after three year in 2021 when all this arrangement expires, it will another round of arrangement to grasp for breathe. Others Also to note Taiwan tax rate has increased from 17% to 20% since 2018.  Another whammy ofr its already stressed balance sheet. And as Sing Dollar continues to appreciate against the taiwan dollar, distribution will be further squeezed. Any positive? Yes.  Mgmt hinted at potential share buyback as it deems it current share price undervalued.  But I believe APTT does not have a share buyback mandate so look out for one either in the agenda for the next AGM or whenever it feels to need to boost it share price.
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sheerluck Supreme	18-Nov-2018 12:25        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	APTT is a high risk trust and it is a pity that mgmt choose to act so late and so drastically causing overall loses to many investors. Let examine it from various aspects: Business Revenue for Basic Cable TV is gradually decreasing due to lower subscription rate and steady subscription level. Revenue for  Premium Digital Cable TV  is steady due to lower subscription rate and higher subscription level. Revenue for Broadband is gradually decreasing due to lower subscription rate even though subscription level has increased. Overall revenue has been decreasing and seems set to maintain the existing trend. Cashflow APTT generates about $190mil each year for the past two years (2016 and 2017) from operation but spent: $100ml each year for investing and  $55mil each year for interest payment and $100mil each year for distribution. So there is a deficit of $65mil each year. Net borrowing was $140ml for 2016 and 2017. A more sustainable distribution will be $35mil or 2.5cts p.a. for 2016 and 2017.  Of course mgmt should phase this in since IPO rather than keep paying out unsustainable distribution to please investors.  The shock to the system with their sudden drastic cut is evidented from market reaction. Going forward So now looking forward, what are the info. Based on the decreasing revenue trend, operating cashflow is likely to trend lower as well.  Maybe around $165mil.  The likely spent maybe: $75ml each year for investing and  $55mil each for interest payment and $17mil each year for distribution (base on 1.2cts p.a.) This leaves about $18mil to play around.  Maybe retire some debt or so but really a small drop in the occean of $1453mil of debt. From Q3 comments, we can tell mgmt is not going to repay any loan principal.  All it wants is to refinace to eliminate the need to make significant principal payment for the next three years.  So expect debt to still be the same mountain.    It wants to extend the interest rate swap to 2021 to reduce the risk of risign interest rate.  So interest payment will not be reduced.  It doesn' t want to borrow more to fund CAPEX but the existing debt is enough to trap it into a prepetual bank slavery. So after three year in 2021 when all this arrangement expires, it will another round of arrangement to grasp for breathe. Others Also to note Taiwan tax rate has increased from 17% to 20% since 2018.  Another whammy ofr its already stressed balance sheet. And as Sing Dollar continues to appreciate against the taiwan dollar, distribution will be further squeezed. Any positive? Yes.  Mgmt hinted at potential share buyback as it deems it current share price undervalued.  But I believe APTT does not have a share buyback mandate so look out for one either in the agenda for the next AGM or whenever it feels to need to boost it share price.
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lukewong82 Master	18-Nov-2018 12:25        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	ppl telling u the hard truth, ppl advising u.. ppl trying to educate u... u say we making fun of u..? Anyway DYODD is paramount.. ur $$ u decide. the rest of us can only say so much.. All the best Brianfoo      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 12:22) Posted: All please dont make fun of me am really really very sad
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Brianfoo Senior	18-Nov-2018 12:22        Brianfoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	All please dont make fun of me am really really very sad
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Grouchycabi Master	18-Nov-2018 12:21        Grouchycabi About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Please pretty please. Please WILL up the price can?
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lukewong82 Master	18-Nov-2018 11:10        lukewong82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	My prediction  Shares suspended (like Hyflux)  prior XD = 1% Price  dropping below 15 cents  prior XD  = 19% Price rangebound 15-17 cents prior  XD = 56% Price  rangebound 17-20 cents prior XD =  19% Price above 20 cents prior XD = 5%     Brianfoo      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 10:04) Posted: Yah i know nobody can predict but any possibility it will go up to 0.2 coming this week please?
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longjohn Member	18-Nov-2018 10:10        longjohn About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	if anyone said yes would u believe them? or will you ask again if 0.25 is achievable. historically after dividend price goes down, its fact from market players. stock market is always ruthless, everyone gets burned.  Brianfoo      ( Date: 18-Nov-2018 10:04) Posted: Yah i know nobody can predict but any possibility it will go up to 0.2 coming this week please?
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Brianfoo Senior	18-Nov-2018 10:04        Brianfoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yah i know nobody can predict but any possibility it will go up to 0.2 coming this week please?
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Berani Elite	18-Nov-2018 09:45        Berani About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	no ppl will be able to predict the share price. I suggest when price run up.... u cut 50% Brianfoo      ( Date: 17-Nov-2018 23:41) Posted: Anyone can help please? Seems that almost all think this trust no hope already...
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justinN Member	18-Nov-2018 00:07        justinN About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro, while you are still grieving - give yourself time to accept the loss and don' t do anything for the time being first (except to liquidate your position in APTT soon - I don' t see any point in waiting for XD - waiting for the price to recover in itself is a dangerous gamble). You still have $33K left based on your 200 lots - there will always be good stocks and the market is always open for you.    If you just take ppl' s suggestions and rush the market, you are just gambling with your remaining capital - eventually down the road, you will lose even the 33k to the market, if you dont know what you are doing. You need to really take a pause and think about this - what' s your edge when you place the next trade / investment?      A stock tip is not an edge - it' s just a gamble based on popular opinion. Enough said Brianfoo      ( Date: 17-Nov-2018 23:41) Posted: Anyone can help please? Seems that almost all think this trust no hope already...
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Brianfoo Senior	17-Nov-2018 23:41        Brianfoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Anyone can help please? Seems that almost all think this trust no hope already...
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Brianfoo Senior	17-Nov-2018 21:56        Brianfoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I still cant believe all my hard earned money saved over the years gone like that in a single day. Am really really very sad and at a loss...
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