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Latest Forum Topics / Olam Intl  Post Reply
OLAM_OLAM
eagle18
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14-Mar-2014 11:30     
 
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Can't understand why people are selling at 2.21 when there is a guaranteed offer of 2.23  from Temasek. Anyone care to explain, abit of nood in this area.

Thanks 
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AwakenTide
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14-Mar-2014 11:28     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I will not  take up the letter of offer that Olam will send me days later. Seriously think this is so much undervalue too.
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yyhwin
Elite
14-Mar-2014 11:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		retail investors can join force to block the offer. :) 

merlin_magic      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 11:16) Posted:



Alamak. I never averaged down at all and I have some lots at 2.47 which I bought in 2012.

Temasek only offers 2.23... which means I still lose money...

 

But maybe the loss is smaller as I receive some dividends as well as Olam's bond issue coupon...

Can Temasek, pls offer higher?
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merlin_magic
Senior
14-Mar-2014 11:16     
 
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Alamak. I never averaged down at all and I have some lots at 2.47 which I bought in 2012.

Temasek only offers 2.23... which means I still lose money...

 

But maybe the loss is smaller as I receive some dividends as well as Olam's bond issue coupon...

Can Temasek, pls offer higher?
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AwakenTide
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14-Mar-2014 11:04     
 
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 Alert Admin 		trading at 2.21 / 2.22 now ... lots of profit taking as well 
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ahmah00
Senior
14-Mar-2014 10:58     
 
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 Alert Admin 		yes yes, I also have the same question. I have odd lots of warrants and 4 full lots of bonds to sell. No more mother shares. The announcement mentioned about the warrants but nothing about redeeming the bonds early. USD0.646 per warrant. Huat ah!

yyhwin      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 10:48) Posted:

anyone of you knows how to sell odd lots of olam warrants without hefty commission charge ? 

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yyhwin
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14-Mar-2014 10:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		anyone of you knows how to sell odd lots of olam warrants without hefty commission charge ? 
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FATABA
Supreme
14-Mar-2014 10:38     
 
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Well said. 
Also what about all those warrants ( convert ) ....and still Olam has outstanding bond issue.
They have opening advise that they prefer it to REMAIN listed.....certainly a good gain for Temasek to take in all those who accept the 2,23 and then become a major stock holder ....and when price continue to move up .
Its certainly worth more than this offer price...real smart move at this time of the market.


roostertan      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 10:14) Posted:

Offer at 2.23 is definitely a under-cut price.  It worth  higher than that.  Considering those huge private placement a few years back at 2.57 would not be happy about it.  As this is only a voluntary acceptance,  shareholders can choose not to accept it.  Having said that,  they may again consider to re-adjust their offer price  to a higher level at a later stage, which we may never know.
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counter
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14-Mar-2014 10:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Congratulations to the bros who are still holding Olam's shares
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roostertan
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14-Mar-2014 10:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Offer at 2.23 is definitely a under-cut price.  It worth  higher than that.  Considering those huge private placement a few years back at 2.57 would not be happy about it.  As this is only a voluntary acceptance,  shareholders can choose not to accept it.  Having said that,  they may again consider to re-adjust their offer price  to a higher level at a later stage, which we may never know.
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sun233
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14-Mar-2014 10:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		$2.40...... dont think so. You can reject offer. They might increase offer if another player enters. Good Luck

eagle18      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 09:47) Posted:

I have some of Olam shares at 2.4...so hopefully pass this mark when it explode. Waited for a long time for this!
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WanSiTong
Supreme
14-Mar-2014 10:01     
 
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Singapore Stock Market News


Temasek Unit Offers to Buy Olam in $4.2 Billion Cash Deal

Breedens Investments Pte, a unit of
Singapore?s Temasek Holdings Pte, offered to buy Olam
International Ltd. in a bid that values the commodity trader at...
S$5.3 billion ($4.2 billion).
The unit of Temasek, Olam?s largest shareholder, is
offering S$2.23 cash per share, the Singapore-based company said
today in a statement. The bid is a 12 percent premium to Olam?s
last closing price of S$1.995.
Buying Olam will give Breedens control of one of the
world?s top three coffee and rice traders. Olam has been cutting
spending and selling assets to address investor concern about
cash flow after short-seller Carson Block questioned the
company?s finances in November 2012. The stock, which closed as
low as S$1.395 after Block?s attack, reached a near 17-month
high of S$1.995 in Singapore yesterday.
?We believe a successful offer will provide Olam with a
stronger and more stable shareholder base to support Olam?s
strategy and business model for the long term,? Breedens
Director David Heng said according to the statement. ?We have
invested in Olam over the years, and share a common investment
philosophy to invest and build for the long term.?
Breedens leads a group including Aranda Investments Pte,
Olam family shareholders and 10 members of the Olam executive
committee that together own 52.5 percent of the shares of the
target company, Breedens said in the statement. Breedens plans
to keep Olam as a listed company, it said.

Shares Rally

Olam has rallied 30 percent this year in Singapore,
compared with a 2.7 percent decline in the benchmark Straits
Times Index. The stock is set for its seventh straight weekly
increase amid a rise in farm commodity prices. The S& P GSCI
Agricultural Index has advanced 15 percent this year, with price
surges in coffee and cocoa.
Block said Nov. 19, 2012 he was betting against Olam
because he questioned the accounting methods used by the trader.
Block?s research firm Muddy Waters LLC followed with a report
questioning Olam?s asset purchases and accounting methods,
prompting the stock to slide to a more than three-year low in
December 2012. Olam rejected the assertions by Block and Muddy
Waters.
?Olam has been oversold following the issues raised by
Muddy Waters and has bounced back strongly as the company
addressed those concerns,? Alan Richardson, a Hong Kong-based
money manager at Samsung Asset Management, said by phone before
the announcement.
Olam said last month second-quarter profit declined 13
percent to S$134.9 million as expenses rose and sales volumes
dropped.

 
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beginners
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14-Mar-2014 09:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thks for sharing bro:)

nngeeh      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 09:44) Posted:



The url was taken down, but if you search " Muddy Waters losing battle to Olam" in google, could was still see  it was linked with livetrading. Anyway, i kept that article. Enjoy:

***************

As we predicted when this began, Muddy Waters got in over their heads tackling Olam.

The rumor in Hong Kong is that Muddy Waters is the cash strapped and needed a fast Olam victory, but choosing Olam as a target was ill advised. As it stands now, Olam will outlive Muddy Waters in financial terms.

Olam is one of Temasek?s many holding and that is a problem for anyone seeking to collapse a company, Temasek is a powerhouse. Temasek is not your regular investment fund Muddy Waters so easily scare, Temasek have wider responsibility, one to the Sovereign Nation of Singapore and it?s people. Temasek could stand to lose 10′ s of billions if Olam were to fail and the Singapore Financial Hub, Singapore Stock Exchange left tarnished. It will not happen.

Temasek was incorporated in 1974 with an initial portfolio valued at S$354 million. The portfolio has grown to a record S$198 billion in March 2012.


Temasek Portfolio Value


Muddy Waters should have known that, Singapore is not China, it is hard to build momentum against a company as Maddy Waters has done in China unless you can feed off the Western World?s Xenophobic fear of all things Chinese.

This week the Muddy Waters problems took a turn for the worse.

Straits Times reported, Kewalram Singapore, which owns 20 per cent of Olam, announced in an e-mail statement on Monday that it fully supported the commodities trader?s offering.

It said it believed Olam?s proposed rights issue was ?in the best interest of the company, and is an attractive investment opportunity for all shareholders, as well as being beneficial to the bondholders?.

As far as the technicals go on Olam?s chart there is no doubt it is in dangerous territory, but the key number that Muddy Waters will be pushing for is a break below the rights issue price, under $1.30 and Olam will have trouble. So far the stock is resisting that level and is painting an ominous picture of the Muddy Waters Short position.

The rights issue takes advantage of Muddy Waters cash position. Based on volume, I would estimate the short position averages around $1.90SGD, the brokers acting on behalf of the short seller would have a safety margin of around 30% so the stock needs to run to $2.34 to rid the company of that short seller.

The average short away from the short seller looks to be around 1.68SGD, so they will become buyers at the $1.86SGD point.

 

yyhwin      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 08:50) Posted:

well say, any link to the article? 
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eagle18
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14-Mar-2014 09:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I have some of Olam shares at 2.4...so hopefully pass this mark when it explode. Waited for a long time for this!
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nngeeh
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14-Mar-2014 09:44     
 
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The url was taken down, but if you search " Muddy Waters losing battle to Olam" in google, could was still see  it was linked with livetrading. Anyway, i kept that article. Enjoy:

***************

As we predicted when this began, Muddy Waters got in over their heads tackling Olam.

The rumor in Hong Kong is that Muddy Waters is the cash strapped and needed a fast Olam victory, but choosing Olam as a target was ill advised. As it stands now, Olam will outlive Muddy Waters in financial terms.

Olam is one of Temasek?s many holding and that is a problem for anyone seeking to collapse a company, Temasek is a powerhouse. Temasek is not your regular investment fund Muddy Waters so easily scare, Temasek have wider responsibility, one to the Sovereign Nation of Singapore and it?s people. Temasek could stand to lose 10′ s of billions if Olam were to fail and the Singapore Financial Hub, Singapore Stock Exchange left tarnished. It will not happen.

Temasek was incorporated in 1974 with an initial portfolio valued at S$354 million. The portfolio has grown to a record S$198 billion in March 2012.


Temasek Portfolio Value


Muddy Waters should have known that, Singapore is not China, it is hard to build momentum against a company as Maddy Waters has done in China unless you can feed off the Western World?s Xenophobic fear of all things Chinese.

This week the Muddy Waters problems took a turn for the worse.

Straits Times reported, Kewalram Singapore, which owns 20 per cent of Olam, announced in an e-mail statement on Monday that it fully supported the commodities trader?s offering.

It said it believed Olam?s proposed rights issue was ?in the best interest of the company, and is an attractive investment opportunity for all shareholders, as well as being beneficial to the bondholders?.

As far as the technicals go on Olam?s chart there is no doubt it is in dangerous territory, but the key number that Muddy Waters will be pushing for is a break below the rights issue price, under $1.30 and Olam will have trouble. So far the stock is resisting that level and is painting an ominous picture of the Muddy Waters Short position.

The rights issue takes advantage of Muddy Waters cash position. Based on volume, I would estimate the short position averages around $1.90SGD, the brokers acting on behalf of the short seller would have a safety margin of around 30% so the stock needs to run to $2.34 to rid the company of that short seller.

The average short away from the short seller looks to be around 1.68SGD, so they will become buyers at the $1.86SGD point.

 

yyhwin      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 08:50) Posted:

well say, any link to the article? 

nngeeh      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 08:44) Posted:



Brillant move to get rid of Muddy Waters.

There was an article titled " Muddy waters losing battle to Olam" publised on the livetrading website 1 year back, written by a fund manager. He assessed at the point that general market shorted at $1.7 & MW shorted at $1.9. The shortists are anticipated to buy back if the share goes above 30% of it's shorted value.

Last Friday, the sgx lending pool were showing " 0" , and the daily short  for the last few session was ranging between 1000~3000. 

So, according to the fund manager,  to get rid of MW, the share price will need to reach around approximately $2.3 (quite close to the offer price).

This will force MW to buy back the share. Even though the general market was supposed to have covered back when the share reached 1.9 (around 30% of 1.7), but judging from the lending pool, they have not really covered back the share.

I think once the halt is lifted, the short squeeze from both MW and shortist will force the share to go higher than the offer price.

As Temasek intends to keep Olam listed, i won't be surprise if the institution players who were waiting for  Q2 result  will also join in  invest now. As there is a support price at $2.23, these factors  might force the price to go much higher than $2.23. 


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dc16888
Master
14-Mar-2014 09:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		does it means delisting olam soon?
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beginners
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14-Mar-2014 09:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		No idea bro, but once release will explode like atomic bomb!

eagle18      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 09:37) Posted:

Anybody knows when they will lift the halt?
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eagle18
Member
14-Mar-2014 09:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Anybody knows when they will lift the halt?
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shadow
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14-Mar-2014 09:37     
 
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story for MW to learn again... don't try to take an elephant down...

there are many other short targets they can pick, but they chose to go against a big elephant... sounds familar!

Hope they learn your lesson once again.......

 

beginners      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 09:00) Posted:

Let this Ang mo take out his pants!! He already won numbers of battles fr his record. This time lost one time should be fair. Just like buying shares, got loose got win.


nngeeh      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 08:44) Posted:



Brillant move to get rid of Muddy Waters.

There was an article titled " Muddy waters losing battle to Olam" publised on the livetrading website 1 year back, written by a fund manager. He assessed at the point that general market shorted at $1.7 & MW shorted at $1.9. The shortists are anticipated to buy back if the share goes above 30% of it's shorted value.

Last Friday, the sgx lending pool were showing " 0" , and the daily short  for the last few session was ranging between 1000~3000. 

So, according to the fund manager,  to get rid of MW, the share price will need to reach around approximately $2.3 (quite close to the offer price).

This will force MW to buy back the share. Even though the general market was supposed to have covered back when the share reached 1.9 (around 30% of 1.7), but judging from the lending pool, they have not really covered back the share.

I think once the halt is lifted, the short squeeze from both MW and shortist will force the share to go higher than the offer price.

As Temasek intends to keep Olam listed, i won't be surprise if the institution players who were waiting for  Q2 result  will also join in  invest now. As there is a support price at $2.23, these factors  might force the price to go much higher than $2.23. 


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jj7007
Veteran
14-Mar-2014 09:33     
 
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Where are the naysayers of olam now??

Back in sept-dec, only a few of us truly support this counter and some ppl laugh at us lol. 2.23 is cheap historically, but may be good to take some $ now and buy other counters that are beaten. 
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