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China Fishery - Low PE
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lucky168
Veteran |
19-May-2014 22:47
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no need to read too much into statistic. we know marine supply is limited, price will go up as long as CF can manage their interest cost, this stock will be a darling sooner or later... |
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stockpicker
Master |
19-May-2014 20:15
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El Nino is beginning to form and may be worst that 1997/98. This was the prediction. Going without saying, fish price of some fishes are expected to rise. There were much speculation that because fish price will rise, it will benefit CF although the catch would be much reduced. From the readings of the past financial reports of Copeinca and CF, there appears to be some increase in profits during the El-Nino years although the fish price had risen much more. Then, the aquacultural fish farming production was not as much as today which is around 50% of the World&rsquo s fish production. That prompted a question: Would El-Nino also much affected the production of aquacultural farming as normal fishing? As we know, aquacultural farming can be artificially controlled or assisted. If the is lack of O2 or CO2 due to El-Nino, they can be pumped into the water and so on. There were little information available except a table that could be found in the FAO. That table shows the production of fish for normal catch vs aquaculture farming for a 6-year period before 1999. 
The point is that in year 1998 when El-Nino was at its height, the aquacultural and inland fish production was not affected at all although we saw a significant drop in the catch of the marine fishes. Then if we compare the aquacultural and normal catch described in the following website, the aquacultural production is less than 1/5 of the normal catch production in 1999. http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x8002e/x8002e04.htm This will bring to the point that apart from some species of fishes that are not reared in the aqualcultural farms, the fish prices of other species might not be exorbitantly high in the coming El-Nino as some of us have projected here. |
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lucky168
Veteran |
18-May-2014 23:18
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just keep a lookout on the deal between Fosun and Diamante. if it is more expensive than CF-Copeinca, then maybe one day CF could become a takeover target instead
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JMS213
Senior |
18-May-2014 09:35
Yells: "Just living is not enough. One must have sunshine, freedom !" |
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Absolutely, past & present is important. Future is even more crucial because it tells us the trend or fashion the world is heading. The study definitely provides the leading indicator. Through the report, we know the BB is swimming in the right direction. Maybe that' s why Moody' s applauds China Fishery makeover. That' s what I was told in investment it is important to know the Equilibrium. Thanks for the chart and info Stay invested.
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SLPY69
Senior |
18-May-2014 07:46
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Blanchard, thanks for the video, what is the cause of El Nino ? Global Warming .... it not only affects fish but human, crop, animal ... everything on planet earth. Can they do something about it ? No, guess there is no cure I don' t think it is about the catch anymore rather how high is the price of commodity price going to be ? It is going to be UP UP and away. It is no longer about the catch, but how much tare they going to price them ? As consumer you don' t have a choice, do you ? That' s the real concern, you can ask commodity guru, J Roger. As the saying goes " 羊 毛 出 在 羊 身 上 " Question : What happen to Fosun and Diamante ? Fosun is offering a much higher price for a lesser company than Copeinca. Yes, they are wanting but are they having it ? It is already month of May .... Maybe they are not going to have it. Why huh ? What Moody' s said sum up everything " Moody' s applauds China Fishery makeover" . What makeover ? It is the acquisition of Copeinca. Enjoy 
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SLPY69
Senior |
18-May-2014 07:00
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And it is said " A new economic study shows that seafood for human consumption generates most of the revenue in the fisheries sector." 
Infographic: Revenue flow in the Peruvian fishing sector (Christensen et al). Click thumbnail to enlarge/download. |
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SLPY69
Senior |
18-May-2014 06:53
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Peru' s Ministry of Production is supportive of this industry, eg Early start to the Fishing Season and latest Anchovy Fishing Season Extended Again in Peru. Why is Peru' s Ministry of Production so supportive of the industry and the Fishing Industry moving away from fish feed to human consumption ? The study shows human consumption generates 87% of the employment in the fishery sector, compared with 13% for fishmeal and related enterprises News
Anchovy Fishing Season Extended Again in Peru12 May 2014PERU - The Ministry of Production will continue until the 31 of May, the second season of anchovy and white anchovy fishing in the southern part of the country, ranging from 16 ° 00' 00 " (Penthouse - Arequipa Region) to the southern tip of the Peruvian maritime domain (Tacna). - See more at: http://www.thefishsite.com/fishnews/23149/anchovy-fishing-season-extended-again-in-peru#sthash.FzZN2ofx.dpuf 
Infographic: Employment in the Peruvian Fishing Sector. (Christensen et al) Click to enlarge/download |
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Blanchard
Master |
18-May-2014 02:57
Yells: "Winners cry..... Losers smile....." |
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How strong would El Niñ o 2014 be???
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Blanchard
Master |
18-May-2014 01:28
Yells: "Winners cry..... Losers smile....." |
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Just saw a video from climate auteur Peter Sinclair about El Niñ o: http://youtu.be/i9vQlsuhM8Q How strong would El Niñ o 2014 be??? |
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Isolator
Supreme |
18-May-2014 00:01
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Believe it or not..... the fish should be flying soon...... enjoy.... |
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stockpicker
Master |
16-May-2014 20:45
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Yes.. the price will rise when the catch is affected by El Nino like in 2010 but then, the price has already risen more than double in the last few years.. how much it can go up is another unknown as the aqua cultural fishing has also nicreased their production in the last few years. As for year 2010, Copeinca made some money but not a lot more although the price had increased
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stockpicker
Master |
16-May-2014 20:41
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" Leave the catch to the expert, they are not worried about " can we catch 2.53 tons" rather 2.53 tons is all we' ll have to sell ..... that' s the limit set by the Ministry." It is true that max they can catch is 2.53 tons but this was not the reason reported as to why they stopped taking orders for fish meal. The reported reason was &ldquo We are waiting to see how the fishing goes before selling,&rdquo said one producer, who said he expected prices to stay at those levels for the coming season. One producer said they had sent vessels out as soon as the season opened at midnight on Wednesday April 23, but had not caught anything yet. Research from Peru&rsquo s marine institute Imarpe has suggested that the stock will have high levels of juvenile fish, said this supplier. &ldquo So maybe we will have a mini-ban during this season. It&rsquo s not sure we&rsquo ll be able to complete our TAC.&rdquo &ldquo We have to keep monitoring Peruvian fishing conditions &ndash probably mini bans due to juveniles &ndash as well as weather conditions in China to forecast the next prices. In this very moment, prices are firm,&rdquo said another exporter. http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/04/24/fishmeal-players-hold-off-on-orders-for-now-as-season-makes-early-start/ |
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
16-May-2014 15:30
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I think the catch matters. If there is EN, and the fish swim farther south, the catch may be less and the fish companies may have less to sell. But then fishmeal price will surely go up. In fact, likely to sky rocket. There also seems to be a recent post where it was reported that some companies are already holding out for higher price. Also, CFG had also gone for third party catches. That was why it had higher inventory of fish at one time. The margin as a result from buying from third parties may be lower. Still it contributes to greater profit at the end of the day. |
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JMS213
Senior |
16-May-2014 15:12
Yells: "Just living is not enough. One must have sunshine, freedom !" |
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Found it. S69 posted, Peru' s Production Ministry has allow early start for the fishing season with an increase in fish quota to 2.53 tons. Leave the catch to the expert, they are not worried about " can we catch 2.53 tons" rather 2.53 tons is all we' ll have to sell ..... that' s the limit set by the Ministry. Short term there will be gyration because of traders, let' s not detract from the BB " Equilibrium" where is it heading ? We know the worst is already behind CF. Sorry I have to repeat what Moody said, Pacific Andes' China Fishery Group is completing a major change in business says Moody' s Investor service. The company is shedding its old pollock supply business and by the second half of this year, fully 65% of revenues will come from fishmeal operations. In shedding its Russian pollock supply business, the company has been able to move away from a major political and economic risk. In a press release, Moody' s Investors Service says China Fishery Group Limited' s 1H2014 results are in line with Moody' s expectations and support its B2 corporate family and senior unsecured bond ratings. Stockpicker, I cannot understand why you said the earning is not up to expectation ? Are you saying the BIG THREE RATING COMPANIES, Moody made a mistake in their credit judgments ?
Furthermore, its completion of the refinancing of its acquisition loans for and its privatization of Copeinca ASA are facilitating the consolidation of its fishmeal businesses in Peru.
The ratings outlook remains stable.
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Isolator
Supreme |
16-May-2014 14:40
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Fish is going to jump high... | ||||
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JMS213
Senior |
16-May-2014 14:29
Yells: "Just living is not enough. One must have sunshine, freedom !" |
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Short term gyration leave it to the market forces. Importantly what is the Equilibrium and the rating companies' assessment ? The Big Three credit rating agencies, applauds China Fishery makeover from pollock supplier to fishmeal co., affirms credit rating. I agreed with Moody that CF management has done more BIG RIGHTs.
The Big Three credit rating agencies are Standard & Poor' s (S& P), Moody' s, and Fitch Group. S& P and Moody' s are based in the US,while Fitch is dual-headquartered in New York City and London, and is controlled by the France-based FIMALAC. As of 2013 they hold a collective global market share of " roughly 95 percent" [1] with Moody' s and Standard & Poor' s having approximately 40% each, and Fitch around 15%.[2] However these figures understate the dominance of Moody' s and S& P, since the norm for debt issuers is to obtain ratings from these two, and only occasionally turn to Fitch, for example if Moody' s and S& P disagree.[3] According to an analysis by DeutscheWelle, " their special status has been cemented by law &mdash at first only in the United States, but then in Europe as well." [1][4] From the mid-1990s until early 2003, the Big Three were the only " Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (NRSROs)" in the United States &mdash a designation meaning they were used by the US government in several regulatory areas. (Four other NRSROs merged with Fitch in the 1990s.)[5]
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stockpicker
Master |
16-May-2014 09:10
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It has been the case for quite sometimes that CF will plunge when they announce the earning results. This was because those earnings were not up to expectation. After sometime as usual, the price would be corrected and rise but soon after, it would fall again. This time, it could be quite different. CF has now choked up massive debts for Copeinca to the tune of $80mil in annual interest payment.. But CF managed to diversify itself into fishmeal and fishoil production. Whether it is good or bad is still not quite known because the former Copeinca Management did not manage to keep the company well above water levels and they were eager to dispose of it. Lets hope CF can manage Copeinca better than its former management as what CF has better is the network link to Chinese as well as many overseas markets. The only worry now is the El Nino which is now taking shape and has begun to affect the catch. They have already stop to take fishmeal orders is something that one cannot ignore but worry about the impact it would have on Copeinca' s bottom line. Also, this happens at a time when the fishing season has just started and Peru has allowed increase in the quota.. For some reasons if Copeinca cannot get good turn-around profits this year, it would definitely affect CF' s financial performance. some food for thought. |
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JMS213
Senior |
16-May-2014 00:33
Yells: "Just living is not enough. One must have sunshine, freedom !" |
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Paulo, why Moody' s applauds China Fishery makeover ? Are you mocking Moody' s Investors Service for their judgment ? Moody' s applauds China Fishery makeover from pollock supplier to fishmeal co., affirms credit rating Anyway whatever we said " do not alter the market" Quote Isolator " it is your choice" which means the fish is not dead. If it is ... no one will be blogging Enjoy fishing ... |
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JMS213
Senior |
16-May-2014 00:20
Yells: "Just living is not enough. One must have sunshine, freedom !" |
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Paulo, are you saying Moody is misleading everyone " The ratings outlook remains stable." One thing I know, this BB is definitely receiving worldwide attention.I am surprised that it was being reported on Worldnews. Well I am not saying it will go up or down. What' s going to come up next ...Isolator is right, it is your choice ! Ultimately market decides .... I am not good with statistic, but one fundamentalist told me, always look for the equilibrium.Any idea why Moody uses words like " significant step towards" ? Are they careless with their words ?Moody' s sees this as a significant step towards preparing for the consolidation of the company' s fishmeal businesses and for taking further action to improve the efficiency of its facilities in Peru.CHINA FISHERY: Second Quarter and/ or Half Yearly Results (TodayIRcom)Posted, 2014-05-14
 (Source: TodayIRcom ) Press Release of China Fishery Group Limited(B0Z.SI) Singapore, 12 May 2014 - Leading global industrial fishing company, China Fishery Group Limited (" China Fishery" or the " Group" ) (SGX: B0Z.SI),todayreported a 20.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in revenue for the six months ended 28 March 2014 (" 1HFY2014" ). The Group' s increased revenue was due to a 5.4 times increase in revenue from its combined Peruvian Fishmeal Operations. This was primarily driven by the higher Total Allowable Catch (TAC) for Peruvian anchovy for the 2013 second fishing season and contributions from Copeinca AS...more » Latest NewsPARD and China Fishery Announce FY2014 Interim Results (Pacific Andes International Holdings Ltd)For Immediate Release Pacific Andes' Singapore Subsidiaries PARD and China Fishery Announce FY2014 Interim Results (Hong Kong, 12 May 2014) - Leading international frozen... |
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RoundRound
Elite |
16-May-2014 00:15
Yells: "Tikam Tikam can also" |
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Every counter will have its day. When rotational play happen, the stock will raise and vice versa. China Fishery is very hammered to the ground to date and many buying at around 39 to 42c got burned.
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