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Vard Holdings
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Msport
Elite |
18-Dec-2014 11:13
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no bounce? |
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granto
Master |
17-Dec-2014 10:20
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Vard Vung Tau to build Farstad offshore subsea construction vessel: http://www.seashipnews.com/News/Vard-Vung-Tau--to-build-Farstad-offshore-subsea-construction-vessel-/3w3c3025.html |
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jamesng
Master |
16-Dec-2014 16:40
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I think Vard is holding well now compared to others.....hope oil price stablizes soon... Hope Brazil tax issue settle and profit squeeze will not spread to other european yards....... If no cancellation of contract, think can climb soon... |
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halleluyah
Supreme |
16-Dec-2014 13:29
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STI kena food poisoning.....big lau sai n vomitting.....
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taxiuncle
Veteran |
16-Dec-2014 12:37
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What happen?????drop again... |
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jakob.s
Member |
02-Dec-2014 16:31
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Oil price seems to have found price floor at $70/bbl now. Everyone knows extremely low prices (e.g. $40) are not sustainable, though entirely possible in the short-term. For offshore E& P plays, you really should be targeting a longer time horizon. Offshore drilling takes many years, compared to shale drilling. Shale production peaks in the first few years and tapers dramatically afterwards, compared to traditional wells. DYODD. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-02/macquarie-s-le-cornu-eyes-buying-energy-stocks-amid-oil-slump.html |
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taxiuncle
Veteran |
02-Dec-2014 15:53
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Seems like the worst is over....cheong ah !!!!!!!!!! |
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McManaman
Member |
01-Dec-2014 15:05
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This company have been having a string of bad luck that is out of their control. - Cost overrun at their Brazilian Shipyard. - Brazilian Government claims Vard owes money on unpaid taxes. - Oil Prices are now low and may go lower. May be better to monitor to see how low it can go before putting money to invest. |
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jakob.s
Member |
01-Dec-2014 14:19
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maybe better to enter at 20c?
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WinningStock
Senior |
01-Dec-2014 13:50
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Maybe good to enter at 40c. |
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taxiuncle
Veteran |
01-Dec-2014 13:09
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All time low..... |
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sheerluck
Supreme |
27-Nov-2014 12:15
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
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Ganna attacked! |
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jamesng
Master |
27-Nov-2014 10:41
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Short term is uncertain. Medium to long term, I believe should be fine. But best to buy only when you see an improvement in profit marigin........if you are fast, still can get at good price if things improve........ |
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Mark86
Member |
26-Nov-2014 23:58
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I read with interest the points of debates coming from both sides. I agree with both. I am no longer vested but it is their cost management which I am worried about. When they outsource the construction of their hulls to other contractors, it is based on a cost-plus basis, meaning for the customer which is Vard, they can easily run into cost-overrun situations and this will eat into their margins. I just feel that in the short-term there are too many things weighing on Vard. On the bright side, it is a steep learning curve with high risks and they are acquiring knowledge and skills for the future, to innovate, grow and build higher quality ships more efficiently. I will be the first to wack when i can see a sharp turnaround in their profits and margins. Meanwhile just stay sidelines and watch only. Most likely this should be a good long term stock. Good luck to all vested.. 
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jakob.s
Member |
26-Nov-2014 23:37
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Thanks for the counter argument. I' m not trying to paint a rosy picture for the fundamentals. I am just stating the figures and offering my views based on them. In fact, the fundamentals seem pretty gloomy. Oil prices are still very uncertain and the PSV market is still in oversupply and that won' t go away any time soon. http://www.tradewindsnews.com/weekly/347653/Dark-clouds-loom-for-offshore-PSV-sector 1) What I mean by going concern, as the financial definition goes, is how likely the company will be bankrupt. There are no signs of going concern being an issue. Brazil tax case of Nok 200 million, if realised, translates to roughly 3 sg cents per share. A one-off hit. Unfortunate, but hardly life-threatening. 2) When saying their ability to generate profit from its contracts has been bad, I think it' s only fair we analyse the margins over a longer time frame. Ebitda margin was -1.8% in FY2008, 5.4% in FY2009, 11.2% in FY2010, 19% in FY2011, 13.2% in FY2012, 6% in FY2013 and forecast 3% in FY2014. This year has seen the ramp up of their new yard, and they still managed a 3% EBITDA margin overall. As you can see, EBITDA margins are extremely volatile. If we take management' s guidance that Q4 EBITDA will be positive and FY2015 operations will stabilise, I think its safe to assume a positive EBITDA margin overall on remaining orders. Assuming that the company is able to maintain positive EBITDA margins for the next few years on new orders, there is very little downside risk. 3) Dividend policy of 30% payout. I believe, this is linked to the point on the earnings of the company. If the company is earning a healthy EBITDA margin, there is no reason why they should not issue dividends. I am not saying they will definitely pay out. But I' m saying, they will pay out, if they gave sufficient cash for their operations/growth. Fincantieri, as a single controlling shareholder, will most definitely be able to provide pressure on management to issue dividends, if needed. Lastly, Fincantieri is a shipbuilding giant with 200 years of history. My personal view is, they know shipping better than any of us (or the fresh grad bank analysts, for that matter) and did their homework on the market before deciding to spend $600m on purchasing the company.
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InvestNotTrade
Senior |
26-Nov-2014 19:06
Yells: "seekingprivatereturns.blog" |
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To counter your argument, I would say Vard has a lot of going concerns. One, it is the tax charge levied by the Brazilian govt. Second, although orderbook is strong, it's ability to generate profit from its contracts has been bad. And from previous quarter, it's non-profitability had been spreading to European yards too.
As for dividend yield, on record it is 30% payout. However, from last year, we know that the management does not keep to its policy as it didn't issue any dividend last year. Share price does look depressed right now but the fundamentals are not as pretty as you made out to be. As usual, just providing a flip side case
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jakob.s
Member |
26-Nov-2014 17:07
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At current price, it is only value at 5% over book value. In my opinion very limited downside for a company that has no going concern issues. Earnings are depressed but dividend yield, based on dividend payout ratio of 30%, dividend yield is at least 1-2%, even at current depressed earnings. Orderbook and cash position is strong with revenues visible into 2017. there has been over $30m of short positions taken over the past 6 weeks. However, this is still less than 5% of total market cap. Furthermore, if we look at institutional investors in the same period, there were hardly any sales. If anything, institutions increased stake. For O& G market, near term is very murky. However, tmr there is opec meeting we' ll see the impact on oil production and prices. |
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Mark86
Member |
11-Nov-2014 21:23
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Also seems to me like pump and dump. Maybe like what forummer Sophia said, will slowly decay to $0.48? Not a shortist but was once vested in this counter but very disappointed. Will only buy when results turnaround. Hope Super Group don' t follow it' s path.. 
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Du_shen
Veteran |
11-Nov-2014 10:17
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Today is the last chance for vard holders to get out. Gg up with bad results. Sounds like swiber few mths ago. Bad result.. go up from 50c to 53c to trap retailers. Nxt few wks drop until 30c plus. B careful | ||||
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katak88
Master |
11-Nov-2014 09:47
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Share price up 2cts to 69.5cVard turns in Q3 loss of 37 million kroner 11 Nov8:07 AM SHIPBUILDER Vard Holdings sank into the red with a net loss of 37 million Norwegian kroner (S$7.01 million) for the third quarter ended Sept 30 compared to a profit of 76 million kroner a year earlier. Revenue jumped 18.5 per cent year on year to 2.81 billion kroner as the firm delivered five vessels during the quarter and landed contracts to build two more. Loss per share for the quarter worked out to 0.03 kroner, versus earnings per share of 0.06 kroner in the corresponding quarter last year. The shipbuilder turned in an operating loss of 108 million kroner, against an operating profit of 72 million kroner, as costs and other operating expenses rose. Materials, subcontract costs and others surged 31.3 per cent to 2.14 billion kroner. Chief executive Roy Reite said: " As the industry steers towards a more cautious investment climate and softer outlook, there continues to be demand for certain vessel types, in particular within the subsea support and construction vessel market, where Vard has core competencies. While we expect below average new order intake in the near to medium term, negotiations on several contracts are ongoing, and Vard remains well positioned." It has an order book of 40 vessels stretching into 2017 and valued at 20.1 billion kroner as at the end of the third quarter. |
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