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Aceshare Member	12-Sep-2024 10:09        Aceshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	What do you feel would be the expected loss from the Optus saga and how significant is that compared to Singtel' s net profit of about 2 billion? It' s anyone guess on how material the impact may be. Shareholders have obviously priced in penalties and possible lawsuits in the stock price, and although it' s possible that the prices will see a dip if future lawsuits are not in Optus favour, it' s going to be a small impact on the grander scheme of things.  2egg4kosong      ( Date: 12-Sep-2024 09:22) Posted: Let' s focus on the Optus issue. When the saga was announced, price action was all speculative with no material financial impact priced in. We just need to wait for the judgement and the actual finanancial penalty they need to pay. That will really impact its earnings. That said, we do not know how long this lawsuit will drag on but my sense it' s pretty soon :) Aceshare      ( Date: 12-Sep-2024 08:40) Posted: The problem with the report is that the researcher himself has a vested interest and suffers from confirmation bias. You wish for something to fail so you always look for things that will fail to justify it.  The problem is, this isn' t what most investors are seeing. Here are some issues I find with the report.. The quoted Optus issue has already priced in earlier price drops. The dividend policy ' could change' but investors are not expecting that anytime soon. The losses at gxs bank have been priced in for the near term with potential for profits thereafter. There' s a lot more potential from the data centres that' s untapped yet but what is now is promising. NCS and Nxera are scaling up with growth stories. Singtel used to be a stock bought mostly locally and now has become a stock bought globally. You can see it in the daily swings in prices, with variations of even 10c a day. That does mean that the dips will be bigger but also means surges will be strong either way. So if want to play, play with caution. It' s really better to have time in market than time the market now. In conclusion, the justification to 2.50 is weak and the growth story is there to support future prices. Finally, I wouldn' t take a report from a person who is sitting on a 25k loss seriously. If he is so accurate/astute, he would be sitting on a 25k profit now (not even including dividends) and there would be more credibility that he had been right in the projection. 300+k  in the market would yield better returns too then to sit in it. The monthly opportunity cost from interest would already be about 1k. I hope this money isn' t borrowed.
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BinderyT Elite	12-Sep-2024 09:48        BinderyT About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hahaha!   I can almost hear 2egg' s sigh of relief that Singtel not following today' s rally :)
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MrBear12 Supreme	12-Sep-2024 09:43        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sooner the better. We can move on earlier. 2egg4kosong      ( Date: 12-Sep-2024 09:22) Posted: Let' s focus on the Optus issue. When the saga was announced, price action was all speculative with no material financial impact priced in. We just need to wait for the judgement and the actual finanancial penalty they need to pay. That will really impact its earnings. That said, we do not know how long this lawsuit will drag on but my sense it' s pretty soon :) Aceshare      ( Date: 12-Sep-2024 08:40) Posted: The problem with the report is that the researcher himself has a vested interest and suffers from confirmation bias. You wish for something to fail so you always look for things that will fail to justify it.  The problem is, this isn' t what most investors are seeing. Here are some issues I find with the report.. The quoted Optus issue has already priced in earlier price drops. The dividend policy ' could change' but investors are not expecting that anytime soon. The losses at gxs bank have been priced in for the near term with potential for profits thereafter. There' s a lot more potential from the data centres that' s untapped yet but what is now is promising. NCS and Nxera are scaling up with growth stories. Singtel used to be a stock bought mostly locally and now has become a stock bought globally. You can see it in the daily swings in prices, with variations of even 10c a day. That does mean that the dips will be bigger but also means surges will be strong either way. So if want to play, play with caution. It' s really better to have time in market than time the market now. In conclusion, the justification to 2.50 is weak and the growth story is there to support future prices. Finally, I wouldn' t take a report from a person who is sitting on a 25k loss seriously. If he is so accurate/astute, he would be sitting on a 25k profit now (not even including dividends) and there would be more credibility that he had been right in the projection. 300+k  in the market would yield better returns too then to sit in it. The monthly opportunity cost from interest would already be about 1k. I hope this money isn' t borrowed.
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2egg4kosong Veteran	12-Sep-2024 09:22        2egg4kosong About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let' s focus on the Optus issue. When the saga was announced, price action was all speculative with no material financial impact priced in. We just need to wait for the judgement and the actual finanancial penalty they need to pay. That will really impact its earnings. That said, we do not know how long this lawsuit will drag on but my sense it' s pretty soon :) Aceshare      ( Date: 12-Sep-2024 08:40) Posted: The problem with the report is that the researcher himself has a vested interest and suffers from confirmation bias. You wish for something to fail so you always look for things that will fail to justify it.  The problem is, this isn' t what most investors are seeing. Here are some issues I find with the report.. The quoted Optus issue has already priced in earlier price drops. The dividend policy ' could change' but investors are not expecting that anytime soon. The losses at gxs bank have been priced in for the near term with potential for profits thereafter. There' s a lot more potential from the data centres that' s untapped yet but what is now is promising. NCS and Nxera are scaling up with growth stories. Singtel used to be a stock bought mostly locally and now has become a stock bought globally. You can see it in the daily swings in prices, with variations of even 10c a day. That does mean that the dips will be bigger but also means surges will be strong either way. So if want to play, play with caution. It' s really better to have time in market than time the market now. In conclusion, the justification to 2.50 is weak and the growth story is there to support future prices. Finally, I wouldn' t take a report from a person who is sitting on a 25k loss seriously. If he is so accurate/astute, he would be sitting on a 25k profit now (not even including dividends) and there would be more credibility that he had been right in the projection. 300+k  in the market would yield better returns too then to sit in it. The monthly opportunity cost from interest would already be about 1k. I hope this money isn' t borrowed. Glooper83      ( Date: 12-Sep-2024 00:40) Posted: Yes, he is only focused on one metric, PE ratio... but it doesn' t tell the whole story... Moreover, Bharti Airtel PE is 93, doesn' t it mean Singtel is " undervalued" when compared to it
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MrBear12 Supreme	12-Sep-2024 08:56        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Prata research is as biased as any broking house. I admire the effort put in. Congratulations, you can start your own research house. Many will be drawn to it just by its name. My target price is 4.50 by end next year. I am very biased because this is a major holding of mine. So investors, beware and dyodd and follow your own biases. Rightly or wrongly, it is your investment decision, not mine.
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Aceshare Member	12-Sep-2024 08:40        Aceshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	The problem with the report is that the researcher himself has a vested interest and suffers from confirmation bias. You wish for something to fail so you always look for things that will fail to justify it.  The problem is, this isn' t what most investors are seeing. Here are some issues I find with the report.. The quoted Optus issue has already priced in earlier price drops. The dividend policy ' could change' but investors are not expecting that anytime soon. The losses at gxs bank have been priced in for the near term with potential for profits thereafter. There' s a lot more potential from the data centres that' s untapped yet but what is now is promising. NCS and Nxera are scaling up with growth stories. Singtel used to be a stock bought mostly locally and now has become a stock bought globally. You can see it in the daily swings in prices, with variations of even 10c a day. That does mean that the dips will be bigger but also means surges will be strong either way. So if want to play, play with caution. It' s really better to have time in market than time the market now. In conclusion, the justification to 2.50 is weak and the growth story is there to support future prices. Finally, I wouldn' t take a report from a person who is sitting on a 25k loss seriously. If he is so accurate/astute, he would be sitting on a 25k profit now (not even including dividends) and there would be more credibility that he had been right in the projection. 300+k  in the market would yield better returns too then to sit in it. The monthly opportunity cost from interest would already be about 1k. I hope this money isn' t borrowed. Glooper83      ( Date: 12-Sep-2024 00:40) Posted: Yes, he is only focused on one metric, PE ratio... but it doesn' t tell the whole story... Moreover, Bharti Airtel PE is 93, doesn' t it mean Singtel is " undervalued" when compared to it? BinderyT      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 16:50) Posted: Valuation wise, your estimated forward PE of 18.3x is not high.   Singtel' s historical average is actually around 20.5x.   You can argue its higher than other regional players but 20.5x is what the market is willing to pay.   So be careful bro
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MrBear12 Supreme	12-Sep-2024 08:05        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good advice! Entropy72      ( Date: 12-Sep-2024 07:40) Posted: Markets bullish. To save yourself the pain of selling too early, might want to take eyes off share prices and let it run more.
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Entropy72 Master	12-Sep-2024 07:40        Entropy72 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Markets bullish. To save yourself the pain of selling too early, might want to take eyes off share prices and let it run more.
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Glooper83 Senior	12-Sep-2024 00:40        Glooper83 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "Always focus on Fundamentals!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, he is only focused on one metric, PE ratio... but it doesn' t tell the whole story... Moreover, Bharti Airtel PE is 93, doesn' t it mean Singtel is " undervalued" when compared to it? BinderyT      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 16:50) Posted: Valuation wise, your estimated forward PE of 18.3x is not high.   Singtel' s historical average is actually around 20.5x.   You can argue its higher than other regional players but 20.5x is what the market is willing to pay.   So be careful bro. 2egg4kosong      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 15:41) Posted: Prata Research Review of Singtel (SGX: Z74) Current Price: SGD $3.30 TP: SGD $2.50 Summary: Competitive Mobile/Broadband Landscape, Data Center Business ROI Challenges, Share Price Overvaluation, and other Financial Pressures   1) Mobile/Broadband Remains as Key Revenue Source   Revenue Dependency: ·                 Singtel' s mobile and broadband segments contribute significantly to its overall revenue. However, these segments are facing increasing  competition  from regional players and local competitors like StarHub and M1, which could pressure profit margins. ·                 Declining  Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)  in both Singapore and regional markets, due to cheaper plans and market saturation, could pose a long-term threat to profitability.   Singapore Market: ·                 Mobile Penetration  in Singapore is already extremely high, meaning limited room for growth. Singtel has to rely on maintaining its market share, but the entry of new MVNOs (Mobile Virtual Network Operators) has intensified competition. ·                 The  broadband market  is also becoming more competitive, with fibre broadband becoming commoditized, leading to price wars and reduced profitability.   Regional Challenges: ·                 In  Australia, Singtel' s subsidiary Optus has been losing market share to Telstra and TPG Telecom, exacerbated by network issues, high customer churn, and the  Optus data breach, which hurt brand trust and may lead to further regulatory scrutiny and legal actions. ·                 Emerging markets  like India (through Bharti Airtel) and Indonesia (Telkomsel) present growth opportunities but come with significant risks due to  regulatory pressures,  currency fluctuations, and economic instability.   5G Investment Risks: ·                 Singtel is investing heavily in  5G infrastructure, but the returns on these investments may be delayed. With high capital expenditures and slow consumer adoption, this could drag on profitability in the near term.   Margin Pressure: ·                 As mobile and broadband become more commoditized, Singtel' s ability to differentiate itself and maintain premium pricing is under threat, leading to  shrinking margins  across key markets.   2) ROI on Data Center Investments Capital Expenditure and Revenue Growth Data Center Investments: Investment Overview: Singtel invested SGD $820 million in data centers during FY24. This investment reflects the company&rsquo s strategic focus on expanding its digital infrastructure and capitalizing on the growing demand for cloud and data services. Revenue Contribution: Data center revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, driven by increased demand for cloud services and digital solutions. However, this growth rate is below expectations, raising concerns about the effectiveness of capital deployment. ROI Analysis: Current ROI: The return on investment (ROI) for data centers stands at 6.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 10-12%. This lower ROI suggests that Singtel is facing challenges in achieving the anticipated returns from its data center investments. Comparative Analysis: Examining ROI benchmarks against industry leaders such as Equinix and Digital Realty reveals that Singtel&rsquo s ROI is lagging behind. These competitors have demonstrated higher returns due to more efficient operations and better market positioning. Technical Analysis: Capital Efficiency: The lower-than-expected ROI indicates inefficiencies in Singtel&rsquo s data center operations. Factors such as high operational costs, slower-than-expected ramp-up in revenue, and competition from established players contribute to this issue. Revenue Growth vs. ROI: Despite a 5% revenue growth, the ROI challenges highlight the need for improved operational efficiency and strategic adjustments to enhance profitability. 3) Digital Banking Joint Venture: Grab-Singtel Collaboration Strategic Objectives and Financial Performance Joint Venture Overview: Partnership Structure: The Grab-Singtel digital bank joint venture involves a 60% ownership by Grab and 40% by Singtel. This partnership aims to leverage Grab&rsquo s extensive customer base and technology platform with Singtel&rsquo s financial expertise and infrastructure. Investment Details: The total investment in the digital bank venture has reached approximately SGD $1 billion, reflecting the scale and ambition of the project. Initial Performance: Financial Results: The digital bank reported a net loss of SGD $150 million in FY24. This loss is attributed to high setup costs, regulatory compliance expenses, and slower-than-anticipated customer acquisition. Customer Acquisition: The venture has acquired approximately 200,000 customers, falling short of initial projections. The slower customer growth impacts the venture&rsquo s ability to achieve profitability in the near term. Challenges: Regulatory Compliance: The venture has faced significant regulatory hurdles, including obtaining necessary licenses and adhering to stringent financial regulations. These challenges have led to operational delays and increased costs. Market Competition: The digital banking market is highly competitive, with established banks and other fintech players also expanding their digital offerings. The venture must navigate this competitive landscape to capture market share and achieve sustainable growth. Technical Analysis: Capital Outlay and ROI: The high initial losses and slower customer acquisition reflect a challenging ROI scenario. The venture&rsquo s long-term success will depend on effective scaling, customer retention, and achieving profitability. Market Positioning: Analyzing the market positioning of similar digital banking ventures, such as those by DBS Bank and Standard Chartered, provides insights into competitive strategies and performance benchmarks. 4) Temasek Holdings&rsquo Ownership Impact Governance and Financial Implications Ownership Structure: Temasek&rsquo s Stake: Temasek Holdings holds 52% of Singtel&rsquo s shares, providing significant influence over the company&rsquo s strategic direction and governance. Implications: Governance: Temasek&rsquo s substantial ownership provides stability but may limit market-driven pressures on management. This influence can affect decision-making processes and strategic responses to market challenges. Dividend Pressures: Singtel&rsquo s high dividend payout ratio of 70-90% reflects the need to satisfy shareholder expectations, potentially impacting the company&rsquo s ability to reinvest in growth initiatives. Technical Analysis: Governance Risks: Heavy reliance on Temasek may reduce management accountability and responsiveness to market conditions. Effective governance practices are essential to ensure strategic agility and effective decision-making. Dividend Sustainability: The high dividend payout ratio strains financial resources, affecting the company&rsquo s ability to fund growth initiatives and manage economic fluctuations. 5) Valuation Assessment Valuation Metrics Valuation Metrics & Peer Benchmarking: Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: With an optimistic projected annual EPS of S$0.18 and the current share price of S$3.30, Singtel&rsquo s forward  P/E ratio is 18.3x. In comparison, major global telecom operators such as AT& T, Verizon and Vodafone trade at significantly lower forward P/E ratios of approximately 9x. Singtel&rsquo s high valuation relative to its global peers suggests the stock is overpriced, especially considering its limited revenue growth potential and rising risks.   6) Other Areas of Concern   Ongoing Optus Class Action Lawsuit Singtel&rsquo s Australian subsidiary, Optus, is currently facing a class action lawsuit following a significant data breach in 2022 that compromised millions of customers&rsquo information. The potential financial damages could exceed A$500 million, directly impacting Singtel&rsquo s bottom line and increasing its legal and operational risks​   Capital Recycling as a Short-Term Fix Singtel has been recycling its capital by selling stakes in its infrastructure and other non-core businesses in the past few years to generate cash for dividends and new investments. Notable transactions include selling of stakes in  Australia Tower Network and divestments of its regional data center business and Comcentre. However, while this has bolstered cash flow temporarily,  asset recycling is not a sustainable long-term strategy. Once key assets have been monetized, the company risks losing stable revenue-generating assets. As a result, this approach undermines the company&rsquo s ability to sustain its high dividend payout over the long term, particularly in the absence of consistent organic growth​ .   Dividend Sustainability Singtel&rsquo s current dividend yield of  more than 6-7%  is attractive but could be at risk. The company&rsquo s practice of capital recycling raises serious doubts about whether it can continue to offer such high payouts without risking financial instability in the future.   Conclusion Based on this not-so-comprehensive research, Prata Research thinks that Singtel&rsquo s current stock price of SGD $3.30 is overvalued. The target price of SGD $2.50 (PE of 13.9x) better reflects the financial and operational risks facing Singtel. Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should perform their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.
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Entropy72 Master	11-Sep-2024 20:06        Entropy72 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	FA gives us an idea of long term value (weigh yield against risk free rates), while TA tells us when to buy / sell (support and resistance levels, RSI).  When FA fails (over valued), then sell (TA to guide), avoid or short (if trader). When FA attractive (under value), then accumulate during weakness (TA to guide). When rumours arise, ask if FA-wise makes sense.  TikTalk      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 18:00) Posted: Yes FA & TA are important and both need to be applied  but one thing  not easy to figure out is how far or how much stock prices has been price in. Entropy72      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 14:53) Posted: Well chronicled! 👍 🏻 The lesson is to use FA, TA and RA (rumour analysis, including those in this forum) when trading or investing. Don?t blindly look at one dimension only.
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TikTalk Supreme	11-Sep-2024 18:00        TikTalk About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Anyone miss me?"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes FA & TA are important and both need to be applied  but one thing  not easy to figure out is how far or how much stock prices has been price in. Entropy72      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 14:53) Posted: Well chronicled! 👍 🏻 The lesson is to use FA, TA and RA (rumour analysis, including those in this forum) when trading or investing. Don?t blindly look at one dimension only. TikTalk      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 13:32) Posted: Quite easy as most of his comments were copied and pasted. Consolidating them for my self studies on how he use techicals to trade by shortings
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MrBear12 Supreme	11-Sep-2024 17:04        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Follow lukes bets. His stakes are high.
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luke2021 Senior	11-Sep-2024 16:59        luke2021 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	As I mentioned talk much no use one.   Just follow the trend will do.  Don' t against the trend. )
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BinderyT Elite	11-Sep-2024 16:50        BinderyT About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Valuation wise, your estimated forward PE of 18.3x is not high.   Singtel' s historical average is actually around 20.5x.   You can argue its higher than other regional players but 20.5x is what the market is willing to pay.   So be careful bro. 2egg4kosong      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 15:41) Posted: Prata Research Review of Singtel (SGX: Z74) Current Price: SGD $3.30 TP: SGD $2.50 Summary: Competitive Mobile/Broadband Landscape, Data Center Business ROI Challenges, Share Price Overvaluation, and other Financial Pressures   1) Mobile/Broadband Remains as Key Revenue Source   Revenue Dependency: ·                 Singtel' s mobile and broadband segments contribute significantly to its overall revenue. However, these segments are facing increasing  competition  from regional players and local competitors like StarHub and M1, which could pressure profit margins. ·                 Declining  Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)  in both Singapore and regional markets, due to cheaper plans and market saturation, could pose a long-term threat to profitability.   Singapore Market: ·                 Mobile Penetration  in Singapore is already extremely high, meaning limited room for growth. Singtel has to rely on maintaining its market share, but the entry of new MVNOs (Mobile Virtual Network Operators) has intensified competition. ·                 The  broadband market  is also becoming more competitive, with fibre broadband becoming commoditized, leading to price wars and reduced profitability.   Regional Challenges: ·                 In  Australia, Singtel' s subsidiary Optus has been losing market share to Telstra and TPG Telecom, exacerbated by network issues, high customer churn, and the  Optus data breach, which hurt brand trust and may lead to further regulatory scrutiny and legal actions. ·                 Emerging markets  like India (through Bharti Airtel) and Indonesia (Telkomsel) present growth opportunities but come with significant risks due to  regulatory pressures,  currency fluctuations, and economic instability.   5G Investment Risks: ·                 Singtel is investing heavily in  5G infrastructure, but the returns on these investments may be delayed. With high capital expenditures and slow consumer adoption, this could drag on profitability in the near term.   Margin Pressure: ·                 As mobile and broadband become more commoditized, Singtel' s ability to differentiate itself and maintain premium pricing is under threat, leading to  shrinking margins  across key markets.   2) ROI on Data Center Investments Capital Expenditure and Revenue Growth Data Center Investments: Investment Overview: Singtel invested SGD $820 million in data centers during FY24. This investment reflects the company&rsquo s strategic focus on expanding its digital infrastructure and capitalizing on the growing demand for cloud and data services. Revenue Contribution: Data center revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, driven by increased demand for cloud services and digital solutions. However, this growth rate is below expectations, raising concerns about the effectiveness of capital deployment. ROI Analysis: Current ROI: The return on investment (ROI) for data centers stands at 6.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 10-12%. This lower ROI suggests that Singtel is facing challenges in achieving the anticipated returns from its data center investments. Comparative Analysis: Examining ROI benchmarks against industry leaders such as Equinix and Digital Realty reveals that Singtel&rsquo s ROI is lagging behind. These competitors have demonstrated higher returns due to more efficient operations and better market positioning. Technical Analysis: Capital Efficiency: The lower-than-expected ROI indicates inefficiencies in Singtel&rsquo s data center operations. Factors such as high operational costs, slower-than-expected ramp-up in revenue, and competition from established players contribute to this issue. Revenue Growth vs. ROI: Despite a 5% revenue growth, the ROI challenges highlight the need for improved operational efficiency and strategic adjustments to enhance profitability. 3) Digital Banking Joint Venture: Grab-Singtel Collaboration Strategic Objectives and Financial Performance Joint Venture Overview: Partnership Structure: The Grab-Singtel digital bank joint venture involves a 60% ownership by Grab and 40% by Singtel. This partnership aims to leverage Grab&rsquo s extensive customer base and technology platform with Singtel&rsquo s financial expertise and infrastructure. Investment Details: The total investment in the digital bank venture has reached approximately SGD $1 billion, reflecting the scale and ambition of the project. Initial Performance: Financial Results: The digital bank reported a net loss of SGD $150 million in FY24. This loss is attributed to high setup costs, regulatory compliance expenses, and slower-than-anticipated customer acquisition. Customer Acquisition: The venture has acquired approximately 200,000 customers, falling short of initial projections. The slower customer growth impacts the venture&rsquo s ability to achieve profitability in the near term. Challenges: Regulatory Compliance: The venture has faced significant regulatory hurdles, including obtaining necessary licenses and adhering to stringent financial regulations. These challenges have led to operational delays and increased costs. Market Competition: The digital banking market is highly competitive, with established banks and other fintech players also expanding their digital offerings. The venture must navigate this competitive landscape to capture market share and achieve sustainable growth. Technical Analysis: Capital Outlay and ROI: The high initial losses and slower customer acquisition reflect a challenging ROI scenario. The venture&rsquo s long-term success will depend on effective scaling, customer retention, and achieving profitability. Market Positioning: Analyzing the market positioning of similar digital banking ventures, such as those by DBS Bank and Standard Chartered, provides insights into competitive strategies and performance benchmarks. 4) Temasek Holdings&rsquo Ownership Impact Governance and Financial Implications Ownership Structure: Temasek&rsquo s Stake: Temasek Holdings holds 52% of Singtel&rsquo s shares, providing significant influence over the company&rsquo s strategic direction and governance. Implications: Governance: Temasek&rsquo s substantial ownership provides stability but may limit market-driven pressures on management. This influence can affect decision-making processes and strategic responses to market challenges. Dividend Pressures: Singtel&rsquo s high dividend payout ratio of 70-90% reflects the need to satisfy shareholder expectations, potentially impacting the company&rsquo s ability to reinvest in growth initiatives. Technical Analysis: Governance Risks: Heavy reliance on Temasek may reduce management accountability and responsiveness to market conditions. Effective governance practices are essential to ensure strategic agility and effective decision-making. Dividend Sustainability: The high dividend payout ratio strains financial resources, affecting the company&rsquo s ability to fund growth initiatives and manage economic fluctuations. 5) Valuation Assessment Valuation Metrics Valuation Metrics & Peer Benchmarking: Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: With an optimistic projected annual EPS of S$0.18 and the current share price of S$3.30, Singtel&rsquo s forward  P/E ratio is 18.3x. In comparison, major global telecom operators such as AT& T, Verizon and Vodafone trade at significantly lower forward P/E ratios of approximately 9x. Singtel&rsquo s high valuation relative to its global peers suggests the stock is overpriced, especially considering its limited revenue growth potential and rising risks.   6) Other Areas of Concern   Ongoing Optus Class Action Lawsuit Singtel&rsquo s Australian subsidiary, Optus, is currently facing a class action lawsuit following a significant data breach in 2022 that compromised millions of customers&rsquo information. The potential financial damages could exceed A$500 million, directly impacting Singtel&rsquo s bottom line and increasing its legal and operational risks​   Capital Recycling as a Short-Term Fix Singtel has been recycling its capital by selling stakes in its infrastructure and other non-core businesses in the past few years to generate cash for dividends and new investments. Notable transactions include selling of stakes in  Australia Tower Network and divestments of its regional data center business and Comcentre. However, while this has bolstered cash flow temporarily,  asset recycling is not a sustainable long-term strategy. Once key assets have been monetized, the company risks losing stable revenue-generating assets. As a result, this approach undermines the company&rsquo s ability to sustain its high dividend payout over the long term, particularly in the absence of consistent organic growth​ .   Dividend Sustainability Singtel&rsquo s current dividend yield of  more than 6-7%  is attractive but could be at risk. The company&rsquo s practice of capital recycling raises serious doubts about whether it can continue to offer such high payouts without risking financial instability in the future.   Conclusion Based on this not-so-comprehensive research, Prata Research thinks that Singtel&rsquo s current stock price of SGD $3.30 is overvalued. The target price of SGD $2.50 (PE of 13.9x) better reflects the financial and operational risks facing Singtel. Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should perform their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.
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MrBear12 Supreme	11-Sep-2024 16:24        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I hope kosong closed his past shorts with some profit
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Cbkosong Member	11-Sep-2024 16:18        Cbkosong About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Where are your past shorts har ? Ha ha ha 2egg4kosong      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 12:47) Posted: Here you go. Update your charts with this. I' m done with it. No more funds to short but hodl for now. I will provide a more detailed analysis on why I' m shorting Singtel. For your entertainment please :)   Date Counter Name Buy / Sell Balance Quantity Prev Close MV as at Prev Close Balance Proceeds Unrealized Profit / Loss Finance Charge Avg price 15/8/2024 SINGTEL SELL 22,000 3.24 71,280.00 65,238.36 -6,041.64 71.49 2.97 21/8/2024 SINGTEL SELL 2,000 3.24 6,480.00 5,860.00 -620 6.42 2.93 22/8/2024 SINGTEL SELL 10,000 3.24 32,400.00 29,620.00 -2,780.00 32.46 2.96 28/8/2024 SINGTEL SELL 9,000 3.24 29,160.00 26,190.00 -2,970.00 28.7 2.91 29/8/2024 SINGTEL SELL 16,000 3.24 51,840.00 47,720.00 -4,120.00 41.84 2.98 30/8/2024 SINGTEL SELL 13,000 3.24 42,120.00 40,240.00 -1,880.06 30.87 3.10 4/9/2024 SINGTEL SELL 8,000 3.24 25,920.00 25,080.00 -840 10.99 3.14 5/9/2024 SINGTEL SELL 2,000 3.24 6,480.00 6,380.00 -100 0.7 3.19 10/9/2024 SINGTEL SELL 8,000 3.24 25,920.00 25,620.00 -300 0 3.20 11/9/2024 SINGTEL SELL 20,000 3.24 64,800.00 65,700.00 0 0 3.29   Total Shorts   110,000     337,648.36     3.07
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Charanko Senior	11-Sep-2024 15:45        Charanko About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	power kosong is back. 3.5 coming  2egg4kosong      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 15:41) Posted: Prata Research Review of Singtel (SGX: Z74) Current Price: SGD $3.30 TP: SGD $2.50 Summary: Competitive Mobile/Broadband Landscape, Data Center Business ROI Challenges, Share Price Overvaluation, and other Financial Pressures   1) Mobile/Broadband Remains as Key Revenue Source   Revenue Dependency: ·                 Singtel' s mobile and broadband segments contribute significantly to its overall revenue. However, these segments are facing increasing  competition  from regional players and local competitors like StarHub and M1, which could pressure profit margins. ·                 Declining  Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)  in both Singapore and regional markets, due to cheaper plans and market saturation, could pose a long-term threat to profitability.   Singapore Market: ·                 Mobile Penetration  in Singapore is already extremely high, meaning limited room for growth. Singtel has to rely on maintaining its market share, but the entry of new MVNOs (Mobile Virtual Network Operators) has intensified competition. ·                 The  broadband market  is also becoming more competitive, with fibre broadband becoming commoditized, leading to price wars and reduced profitability.   Regional Challenges: ·                 In  Australia, Singtel' s subsidiary Optus has been losing market share to Telstra and TPG Telecom, exacerbated by network issues, high customer churn, and the  Optus data breach, which hurt brand trust and may lead to further regulatory scrutiny and legal actions. ·                 Emerging markets  like India (through Bharti Airtel) and Indonesia (Telkomsel) present growth opportunities but come with significant risks due to  regulatory pressures,  currency fluctuations, and economic instability.   5G Investment Risks: ·                 Singtel is investing heavily in  5G infrastructure, but the returns on these investments may be delayed. With high capital expenditures and slow consumer adoption, this could drag on profitability in the near term.   Margin Pressure: ·                 As mobile and broadband become more commoditized, Singtel' s ability to differentiate itself and maintain premium pricing is under threat, leading to  shrinking margins  across key markets.   2) ROI on Data Center Investments Capital Expenditure and Revenue Growth Data Center Investments: Investment Overview: Singtel invested SGD $820 million in data centers during FY24. This investment reflects the company&rsquo s strategic focus on expanding its digital infrastructure and capitalizing on the growing demand for cloud and data services. Revenue Contribution: Data center revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, driven by increased demand for cloud services and digital solutions. However, this growth rate is below expectations, raising concerns about the effectiveness of capital deployment. ROI Analysis: Current ROI: The return on investment (ROI) for data centers stands at 6.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 10-12%. This lower ROI suggests that Singtel is facing challenges in achieving the anticipated returns from its data center investments. Comparative Analysis: Examining ROI benchmarks against industry leaders such as Equinix and Digital Realty reveals that Singtel&rsquo s ROI is lagging behind. These competitors have demonstrated higher returns due to more efficient operations and better market positioning. Technical Analysis: Capital Efficiency: The lower-than-expected ROI indicates inefficiencies in Singtel&rsquo s data center operations. Factors such as high operational costs, slower-than-expected ramp-up in revenue, and competition from established players contribute to this issue. Revenue Growth vs. ROI: Despite a 5% revenue growth, the ROI challenges highlight the need for improved operational efficiency and strategic adjustments to enhance profitability. 3) Digital Banking Joint Venture: Grab-Singtel Collaboration Strategic Objectives and Financial Performance Joint Venture Overview: Partnership Structure: The Grab-Singtel digital bank joint venture involves a 60% ownership by Grab and 40% by Singtel. This partnership aims to leverage Grab&rsquo s extensive customer base and technology platform with Singtel&rsquo s financial expertise and infrastructure. Investment Details: The total investment in the digital bank venture has reached approximately SGD $1 billion, reflecting the scale and ambition of the project. Initial Performance: Financial Results: The digital bank reported a net loss of SGD $150 million in FY24. This loss is attributed to high setup costs, regulatory compliance expenses, and slower-than-anticipated customer acquisition. Customer Acquisition: The venture has acquired approximately 200,000 customers, falling short of initial projections. The slower customer growth impacts the venture&rsquo s ability to achieve profitability in the near term. Challenges: Regulatory Compliance: The venture has faced significant regulatory hurdles, including obtaining necessary licenses and adhering to stringent financial regulations. These challenges have led to operational delays and increased costs. Market Competition: The digital banking market is highly competitive, with established banks and other fintech players also expanding their digital offerings. The venture must navigate this competitive landscape to capture market share and achieve sustainable growth. Technical Analysis: Capital Outlay and ROI: The high initial losses and slower customer acquisition reflect a challenging ROI scenario. The venture&rsquo s long-term success will depend on effective scaling, customer retention, and achieving profitability. Market Positioning: Analyzing the market positioning of similar digital banking ventures, such as those by DBS Bank and Standard Chartered, provides insights into competitive strategies and performance benchmarks. 4) Temasek Holdings&rsquo Ownership Impact Governance and Financial Implications Ownership Structure: Temasek&rsquo s Stake: Temasek Holdings holds 52% of Singtel&rsquo s shares, providing significant influence over the company&rsquo s strategic direction and governance. Implications: Governance: Temasek&rsquo s substantial ownership provides stability but may limit market-driven pressures on management. This influence can affect decision-making processes and strategic responses to market challenges. Dividend Pressures: Singtel&rsquo s high dividend payout ratio of 70-90% reflects the need to satisfy shareholder expectations, potentially impacting the company&rsquo s ability to reinvest in growth initiatives. Technical Analysis: Governance Risks: Heavy reliance on Temasek may reduce management accountability and responsiveness to market conditions. Effective governance practices are essential to ensure strategic agility and effective decision-making. Dividend Sustainability: The high dividend payout ratio strains financial resources, affecting the company&rsquo s ability to fund growth initiatives and manage economic fluctuations. 5) Valuation Assessment Valuation Metrics Valuation Metrics & Peer Benchmarking: Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: With an optimistic projected annual EPS of S$0.18 and the current share price of S$3.30, Singtel&rsquo s forward  P/E ratio is 18.3x. In comparison, major global telecom operators such as AT& T, Verizon and Vodafone trade at significantly lower forward P/E ratios of approximately 9x. Singtel&rsquo s high valuation relative to its global peers suggests the stock is overpriced, especially considering its limited revenue growth potential and rising risks.   6) Other Areas of Concern   Ongoing Optus Class Action Lawsuit Singtel&rsquo s Australian subsidiary, Optus, is currently facing a class action lawsuit following a significant data breach in 2022 that compromised millions of customers&rsquo information. The potential financial damages could exceed A$500 million, directly impacting Singtel&rsquo s bottom line and increasing its legal and operational risks​   Capital Recycling as a Short-Term Fix Singtel has been recycling its capital by selling stakes in its infrastructure and other non-core businesses in the past few years to generate cash for dividends and new investments. Notable transactions include selling of stakes in  Australia Tower Network and divestments of its regional data center business and Comcentre. However, while this has bolstered cash flow temporarily,  asset recycling is not a sustainable long-term strategy. Once key assets have been monetized, the company risks losing stable revenue-generating assets. As a result, this approach undermines the company&rsquo s ability to sustain its high dividend payout over the long term, particularly in the absence of consistent organic growth​ .   Dividend Sustainability Singtel&rsquo s current dividend yield of  more than 6-7%  is attractive but could be at risk. The company&rsquo s practice of capital recycling raises serious doubts about whether it can continue to offer such high payouts without risking financial instability in the future.   Conclusion Based on this not-so-comprehensive research, Prata Research thinks that Singtel&rsquo s current stock price of SGD $3.30 is overvalued. The target price of SGD $2.50 (PE of 13.9x) better reflects the financial and operational risks facing Singtel. Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should perform their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.
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2egg4kosong Veteran	11-Sep-2024 15:41        2egg4kosong About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Prata Research Review of Singtel (SGX: Z74) Current Price: SGD $3.30 TP: SGD $2.50 Summary: Competitive Mobile/Broadband Landscape, Data Center Business ROI Challenges, Share Price Overvaluation, and other Financial Pressures   1) Mobile/Broadband Remains as Key Revenue Source   Revenue Dependency: ·                 Singtel' s mobile and broadband segments contribute significantly to its overall revenue. However, these segments are facing increasing  competition  from regional players and local competitors like StarHub and M1, which could pressure profit margins. ·                 Declining  Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)  in both Singapore and regional markets, due to cheaper plans and market saturation, could pose a long-term threat to profitability.   Singapore Market: ·                 Mobile Penetration  in Singapore is already extremely high, meaning limited room for growth. Singtel has to rely on maintaining its market share, but the entry of new MVNOs (Mobile Virtual Network Operators) has intensified competition. ·                 The  broadband market  is also becoming more competitive, with fibre broadband becoming commoditized, leading to price wars and reduced profitability.   Regional Challenges: ·                 In  Australia, Singtel' s subsidiary Optus has been losing market share to Telstra and TPG Telecom, exacerbated by network issues, high customer churn, and the  Optus data breach, which hurt brand trust and may lead to further regulatory scrutiny and legal actions. ·                 Emerging markets  like India (through Bharti Airtel) and Indonesia (Telkomsel) present growth opportunities but come with significant risks due to  regulatory pressures,  currency fluctuations, and economic instability.   5G Investment Risks: ·                 Singtel is investing heavily in  5G infrastructure, but the returns on these investments may be delayed. With high capital expenditures and slow consumer adoption, this could drag on profitability in the near term.   Margin Pressure: ·                 As mobile and broadband become more commoditized, Singtel' s ability to differentiate itself and maintain premium pricing is under threat, leading to  shrinking margins  across key markets.   2) ROI on Data Center Investments Capital Expenditure and Revenue Growth Data Center Investments: Investment Overview: Singtel invested SGD $820 million in data centers during FY24. This investment reflects the company&rsquo s strategic focus on expanding its digital infrastructure and capitalizing on the growing demand for cloud and data services. Revenue Contribution: Data center revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, driven by increased demand for cloud services and digital solutions. However, this growth rate is below expectations, raising concerns about the effectiveness of capital deployment. ROI Analysis: Current ROI: The return on investment (ROI) for data centers stands at 6.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 10-12%. This lower ROI suggests that Singtel is facing challenges in achieving the anticipated returns from its data center investments. Comparative Analysis: Examining ROI benchmarks against industry leaders such as Equinix and Digital Realty reveals that Singtel&rsquo s ROI is lagging behind. These competitors have demonstrated higher returns due to more efficient operations and better market positioning. Technical Analysis: Capital Efficiency: The lower-than-expected ROI indicates inefficiencies in Singtel&rsquo s data center operations. Factors such as high operational costs, slower-than-expected ramp-up in revenue, and competition from established players contribute to this issue. Revenue Growth vs. ROI: Despite a 5% revenue growth, the ROI challenges highlight the need for improved operational efficiency and strategic adjustments to enhance profitability. 3) Digital Banking Joint Venture: Grab-Singtel Collaboration Strategic Objectives and Financial Performance Joint Venture Overview: Partnership Structure: The Grab-Singtel digital bank joint venture involves a 60% ownership by Grab and 40% by Singtel. This partnership aims to leverage Grab&rsquo s extensive customer base and technology platform with Singtel&rsquo s financial expertise and infrastructure. Investment Details: The total investment in the digital bank venture has reached approximately SGD $1 billion, reflecting the scale and ambition of the project. Initial Performance: Financial Results: The digital bank reported a net loss of SGD $150 million in FY24. This loss is attributed to high setup costs, regulatory compliance expenses, and slower-than-anticipated customer acquisition. Customer Acquisition: The venture has acquired approximately 200,000 customers, falling short of initial projections. The slower customer growth impacts the venture&rsquo s ability to achieve profitability in the near term. Challenges: Regulatory Compliance: The venture has faced significant regulatory hurdles, including obtaining necessary licenses and adhering to stringent financial regulations. These challenges have led to operational delays and increased costs. Market Competition: The digital banking market is highly competitive, with established banks and other fintech players also expanding their digital offerings. The venture must navigate this competitive landscape to capture market share and achieve sustainable growth. Technical Analysis: Capital Outlay and ROI: The high initial losses and slower customer acquisition reflect a challenging ROI scenario. The venture&rsquo s long-term success will depend on effective scaling, customer retention, and achieving profitability. Market Positioning: Analyzing the market positioning of similar digital banking ventures, such as those by DBS Bank and Standard Chartered, provides insights into competitive strategies and performance benchmarks. 4) Temasek Holdings&rsquo Ownership Impact Governance and Financial Implications Ownership Structure: Temasek&rsquo s Stake: Temasek Holdings holds 52% of Singtel&rsquo s shares, providing significant influence over the company&rsquo s strategic direction and governance. Implications: Governance: Temasek&rsquo s substantial ownership provides stability but may limit market-driven pressures on management. This influence can affect decision-making processes and strategic responses to market challenges. Dividend Pressures: Singtel&rsquo s high dividend payout ratio of 70-90% reflects the need to satisfy shareholder expectations, potentially impacting the company&rsquo s ability to reinvest in growth initiatives. Technical Analysis: Governance Risks: Heavy reliance on Temasek may reduce management accountability and responsiveness to market conditions. Effective governance practices are essential to ensure strategic agility and effective decision-making. Dividend Sustainability: The high dividend payout ratio strains financial resources, affecting the company&rsquo s ability to fund growth initiatives and manage economic fluctuations. 5) Valuation Assessment Valuation Metrics Valuation Metrics & Peer Benchmarking: Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: With an optimistic projected annual EPS of S$0.18 and the current share price of S$3.30, Singtel&rsquo s forward  P/E ratio is 18.3x. In comparison, major global telecom operators such as AT& T, Verizon and Vodafone trade at significantly lower forward P/E ratios of approximately 9x. Singtel&rsquo s high valuation relative to its global peers suggests the stock is overpriced, especially considering its limited revenue growth potential and rising risks.   6) Other Areas of Concern   Ongoing Optus Class Action Lawsuit Singtel&rsquo s Australian subsidiary, Optus, is currently facing a class action lawsuit following a significant data breach in 2022 that compromised millions of customers&rsquo information. The potential financial damages could exceed A$500 million, directly impacting Singtel&rsquo s bottom line and increasing its legal and operational risks​   Capital Recycling as a Short-Term Fix Singtel has been recycling its capital by selling stakes in its infrastructure and other non-core businesses in the past few years to generate cash for dividends and new investments. Notable transactions include selling of stakes in  Australia Tower Network and divestments of its regional data center business and Comcentre. However, while this has bolstered cash flow temporarily,  asset recycling is not a sustainable long-term strategy. Once key assets have been monetized, the company risks losing stable revenue-generating assets. As a result, this approach undermines the company&rsquo s ability to sustain its high dividend payout over the long term, particularly in the absence of consistent organic growth​ .   Dividend Sustainability Singtel&rsquo s current dividend yield of  more than 6-7%  is attractive but could be at risk. The company&rsquo s practice of capital recycling raises serious doubts about whether it can continue to offer such high payouts without risking financial instability in the future.   Conclusion Based on this not-so-comprehensive research, Prata Research thinks that Singtel&rsquo s current stock price of SGD $3.30 is overvalued. The target price of SGD $2.50 (PE of 13.9x) better reflects the financial and operational risks facing Singtel. Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should perform their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.
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MrBear12 Supreme	11-Sep-2024 15:27        MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hold and don't sell
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huattuatua Elite	11-Sep-2024 15:24        huattuatua About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	based upon last yr record, min 5 cts gone with the wind should he hold til then.   hokpin      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 15:15) Posted: 2 ~ 3 months later, there will be dividend cost as well! huattuatua      ( Date: 11-Sep-2024 15:03) Posted: the other aspect u need to consider is the finance costs. hope u have taken this into considerations all the best br
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