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Latest Forum Topics / CityDev    Last:8.19    -0.17  Post Reply
CityDev
pasttime
Supreme
03-Feb-2022 12:20     
 
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Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
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 Alert Admin 		1/2 day gone up 7c. not bad. up a few cents everyday can already.
institutions has been nibbling since week starting 27 dec.   
results report on 25 feb 
korean hotel sale close on 28 feb. 
bear bear paws going to be chopped soon.
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pasttime
Supreme
01-Feb-2022 20:35     
 
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Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
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 Alert Admin 		虎 虎 生 威
恭 喜 发 财

 
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fatpig
Senior
29-Jan-2022 10:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		瑞 安 房 地 产 开 始 了 土 储 缩 减 。 在 发 布 中 报 的 前 一 个 月 ， 瑞 安 房 地 产 在 佛 山 接 连 退 地 ， 使 其 大 湾 区 的 土 储 归 零 ， 截 止 2021年 6月 30日 ， 瑞 安 房 地 产 的 土 储 只 有 840万 平 方 米 。

&ldquo 新 世 界 建 好 生 活 &rdquo 提 议 ， 发 展 全 香 港 首 个 非 盈 利 的 私 人 资 助 房 屋 项 目 （ 私 人 居 屋 ） ， 这 类 居 屋 将 以 市 价 的 约 五 折 至 六 折 出 售 。

pasttime      ( Date: 29-Jan-2022 00:24) Posted:

while the news has focus on reporting on main land china property company woe. 
some smart hk property companies are quitely snapping up land on the cheap.

香 港 置 地 以 310.5亿 的 价 格 拿 下 上 海 徐 汇 一 宗 综 合 体 地 块

瑞 安 ， 在 2021年 12月 武 汉 第 三 次 集 中 供 地 上 ， 一 举 夺 下 了 武 汉 新 任 总 价 地 王

新 世 界 集 团 ， 在 2021年 年 初 选 择 把 新 世 界 中 国 地 产 有 限 公 司 总 部 落 户 在 了 广 州

嘉 里 建 设 ， 在 上 海 黄 浦 拿 下 一 个 百 亿 大 项 目 ， 地 段 稀 缺 。 2022年 1月 4日 ， 嘉 里 建 设 有 限 公 司 发 布 公 告 称 ， 成 功 招 标 购 入 上 海 市 黄 浦 区 一 宗 土 地 作 综 合 发 展 之 用 ， 代 价 133.29亿 元 .

unfortunately, city dev will have to give this round of cheap land sale a miss. it is better for citydev to complete
what is on the plate, show delivery and continue monetization.
 

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pasttime
Supreme
29-Jan-2022 00:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		while the news has focus on reporting on main land china property company woe. 
some smart hk property companies are quitely snapping up land on the cheap.

香 港 置 地 以 310.5亿 的 价 格 拿 下 上 海 徐 汇 一 宗 综 合 体 地 块

瑞 安 ， 在 2021年 12月 武 汉 第 三 次 集 中 供 地 上 ， 一 举 夺 下 了 武 汉 新 任 总 价 地 王

新 世 界 集 团 ， 在 2021年 年 初 选 择 把 新 世 界 中 国 地 产 有 限 公 司 总 部 落 户 在 了 广 州

嘉 里 建 设 ， 在 上 海 黄 浦 拿 下 一 个 百 亿 大 项 目 ， 地 段 稀 缺 。 2022年 1月 4日 ， 嘉 里 建 设 有 限 公 司 发 布 公 告 称 ， 成 功 招 标 购 入 上 海 市 黄 浦 区 一 宗 土 地 作 综 合 发 展 之 用 ， 代 价 133.29亿 元 .

unfortunately, city dev will have to give this round of cheap land sale a miss. it is better for citydev to complete
what is on the plate, show delivery and continue monetization.
 
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pasttime
Supreme
28-Jan-2022 10:50     
 
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Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
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 Alert Admin 		wa so bad, why no short it down?
low volume. 
good opportunity for you
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tongphlp
Supreme
28-Jan-2022 10:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		OMG

ETLee8      ( Date: 28-Jan-2022 10:27) Posted:

CDL Hospitality Trusts cuts H2 DPS by 11% to S$0.0306

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/wealth-investing/cdl-hospitality-trusts-cuts-h2-dps-by-11-to-s00306

Some idea what to expect for CDL coming results.
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ETLee8
Master
28-Jan-2022 10:27     
 
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CDL Hospitality Trusts cuts H2 DPS by 11% to S$0.0306

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/wealth-investing/cdl-hospitality-trusts-cuts-h2-dps-by-11-to-s00306

Some idea what to expect for CDL coming results.
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pasttime
Supreme
28-Jan-2022 08:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		market going quiet before cny.
good oppportunity for bear to short it down to $6.
 
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tongphlp
Supreme
27-Jan-2022 09:12     
 
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City Developments



City Developments  said Wednesday it was listed on the Bloomberg Gender-Equality Index 2022, marking its fifth straight year in the index. The index aims to track the performance of publicly listed companies committed to transparency in gender-data reporting.

Women make up 69 percent of City Developments&rsquo workforce, with 47 percent of department head roles filled by women, the company said in a filing to SGX.

The 2022 index includes 418 companies across 45 countries and regions. 
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Chagataii
Veteran
25-Jan-2022 21:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Whiskey tells me with my obtuse Correct calculus..you get10 cents off semby you get out and try4 cents again. What I do not know Oceans!
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ETLee8
Master
25-Jan-2022 14:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The reality is that it is the resales that are booming.  New sales are dropping quite steeply.
$6 plus coming very soon.

ETLee8      ( Date: 24-Jan-2022 23:12) Posted:

From the statistics up to Sep 2021, where got boomimg sales ??, In fact it is droppping !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ETLee8      ( Date: 24-Jan-2022 23:06) Posted:

New Home Sales in Singapore averaged 874.34 Units from 2013 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 2793 Units in March of 2013 and a record low of 230 Units in December of 2014. This page provides - Singapore New Home Sales- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Singapore Private Home Sales - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on January of 2022.

 
 
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Singapore Private Home Sales
New home sales in Singapore refers to sales of private homes by developers.
  Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency  
  834.00 1216.00 2793.00 230.00 2013 - 2021 Units Monthly


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ETLee8
Master
25-Jan-2022 13:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Last night near miss.  US stocks hanging dangerousl !!!!!!

ETLee8      ( Date: 24-Jan-2022 20:30) Posted:

Historic collapse in stocks underway Fed intervention can&rsquo t prevent eventual plunge: Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham, the famed investor who for decades has been calling market bubbles, said the historic collapse in stocks he predicted a year ago is underway and even intervention by the Federal Reserve can&rsquo t prevent an eventual plunge of almost 50%.

  In a  note  posted Thursday, Grantham, the co-founder of Boston asset manager GMO, describes US stocks as being in a &ldquo super bubble,&rdquo only the fourth of the past century. And just as they did in the crash of 1929, the dot-com bust of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008, he&rsquo s certain this bubble will burst, sending indexes back to statistical norms and possibly further.

 

  That, he said, involves the S& P 500 dropping some 45% from Wednesday&rsquo s close -- and 48% from its Jan. 4 peak -- to a level of 2500. The Nasdaq Composite, already down 8.3% this month, may sustain an even bigger correction.

  &ldquo I wasn&rsquo t quite as certain about this bubble a year ago as I had been about the tech bubble of 2000, or as I had been in Japan, or as I had been in the housing bubble of 2007,&rdquo Grantham said in a Bloomberg &ldquo Front Row&rdquo interview. &ldquo I felt highly likely, but perhaps not nearly certain. Today, I feel it is just about nearly certain.&rdquo

  In Grantham&rsquo s analysis, the evidence is abundant. The first sign of trouble he points to came last February, when dozens of the most speculative stocks began falling. One proxy, Cathie Wood&rsquo s Ark Innovation ETF, has since tumbled by 52%. Next, the Russell 2000, an index of mid-cap equities that typically outperforms in a bull market, trailed the S& P 500 in 2021.

 

 
See also:  Morgan Stanley' s senior portfolio manager warns against buying dip in expensive high-growth stocks


  Finally, there was what Grantham calls the kind of &ldquo crazy investor behavior&rdquo indicative of a late-stage bubble: meme stocks, a buying frenzy in electric-vehicle names, the rise of nonsensical cryptocurrencies such a dogecoin and multimillion-dollar prices for non-fungible tokens, or NFTs.

  &ldquo This checklist for a super bubble running through its phases is now complete and the wild rumpus can begin at any time,&rdquo Grantham, 83, writes in his note. &ldquo When pessimism returns to markets, we face the largest potential markdown of perceived wealth in US history.&rdquo

It could, he said, rival the impact of the dual collapse of Japanese stocks and real estate in the late 1980s. Not only are equities in a super bubble, according to Grantham there&rsquo s also a bubble in bonds, &ldquo the broadest and most extreme&rdquo bubble ever in global real estate and an &ldquo incipient bubble&rdquo in commodity prices. Even without a full reversion back to statistical trends, he calculates that losses in the US alone may reach $35 trillion.
Grantham is a dyed-in-the-wool value manager who&rsquo s been investing for 50 years and calling bubbles for almost as long. He knows his predictions are fodder for skeptics. One obvious question: How could the S& P 500 advance 26.9% in 2021 -- its seventh-best performance in 50 years -- if stocks were poised to plummet?

  Rather than disprove his thesis, Grantham said the strength in blue-chip stocks at a time of weakness in speculative bets only reinforces it.

  &ldquo This has been exactly how the great bubbles have broken,&rdquo he said. &ldquo In 1929, the flakes were down for the year before the market broke, they were down 30%. The year before they&rsquo d been up 85%, they had crushed the market.&rdquo

  Seeing the same pattern that played out in every past super bubble is what gives him so much confidence in predicting this one will implode similarly.

  Grantham pins the blame for bubbles of the past 25 years mostly on bad monetary policy. Ever since Alan Greenspan was Fed chairman, he argues, the central bank has &ldquo aided and abetted&rdquo the formation of successive bubbles by first making money too cheap and then rushing to bail out markets when corrections followed.

  Now, investors may no longer be able to count on that implied put. Inflation running at the fastest clip in four decades &ldquo limits&rdquo the Fed&rsquo s ability to stimulate the economy by cutting rates or buying assets, Grantham said.

 

&ldquo They will try, they will have some effect,&rdquo he added. &ldquo There is some element of the put left. It is just heavily compromised.&rdquo
Under these conditions, the traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks offset by bonds offers so little protection it&rsquo s &ldquo absolutely useless,&rdquo Grantham said. He advises selling US equities in favor of stocks trading at cheaper valuations in Japan and emerging markets, owning resources for inflation protection, holding some gold and silver, and raising cash to deploy when prices are once again attractive.

 

&ldquo Everything has consequences and the consequences this time may or may not include some intractable inflation&rdquo Grantham writes. &ldquo But it has already definitely included the most dangerous breadth of asset overpricing in financial history.&rdquo

 
 


pasttime      ( Date: 24-Jan-2022 18:55) Posted:

interest rate up is already in the price in many counters. like banks has over run on interest rate up factor. reits has over down.
real estate.  instutions are collecting. so what do you think?
what if the interest rate up is small or did not happen.

  current inflation are mainly due to high energy price, supply chain issue. china covid-19 lockdown may be next.
let' s look at what has happened. Christmas is over. ie delivery bottom neck due to man power shortage is reducing, can see the baltic dry index
hit a peak of 5600+ in oct to current 1400. in uk when there was delivery problem for oil to petrol station they activated the army to help. wonder
will or can that happen in us if the port/land logistic problem persist?
oil price remain high at 80+  but then what if an agreement is reached with iran. to start export of oil?
fossil fuel production in us is expected to hit a high in 2023 (EIA report). 

oil above 80+ is very lucrative for many oil co to pump at highest speed.
remember those years when people just go crazy to order oil rig when oil price was above 80.
this round is a surprise that like no one speculate
on oil rig any more. maybe the expectations is high oil price will not continue.
when all expectations of inflation is in the price of share and it did not happen.
what do one think will happen?
dyodd
 


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tongphlp
Supreme
25-Jan-2022 10:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		London Bridge is Falling Down..

pasttime      ( Date: 25-Jan-2022 06:49) Posted:

hi u pickup a wrong unit to show your point.
the esparis, 16 year old ec.
1. the transacted price for the esparis is about 760 psf.  the asking price of 802  on the high side.
2. the owner is unable to pay conservancy etc. gives a very bad impression to potential owner who want to stay. ie lesser buyers. anyone who want to bid will put in lower then the fair price.
3. property sale of new units and old development are two different market. related but differetn set of buyers. new development buyers are mostly owner who want to stay or investors in very attractive locations. or if developer do a discount sale.    resale old development are mainly for bargain hunter. especiallyd evelopment older then 10 years. people will be looing for location, enbloc, or low price for change of status.
 

ETLee8      ( Date: 24-Jan-2022 22:52) Posted:



SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - A three-bedroom unit at  The Esparis  along Pasir Ris Drive 4 in District 18, was put up for auction for $950,000 ($802 psf) on Jan 19, but was unsuccessful, according to Edmund Tie, which is handling the auction.

Edmund Tie has been appointed to manage the auction by the Management Corporation Strata Title (MCST) of The Esparis. This can happen when the MCST of a development decides to put a unit up for sale after the owner defaults on the monthly maintenance fees and sinking fund, according to Section 43 of the Building Maintenance and Strata Management Act.
 


The 99-year leasehold property spans 1,184 sq ft on the fifth floor of the development, says Joy Tan, senior director, head of auction and sales at Edmund Tie. It comes with a yard and household shelter, and faces the tennis court, she adds.SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - A three-bedroom unit at  The Esparis  along Pasir Ris Drive 4 in District 18, was put up for auction for $950,000 ($802 psf) on Jan 19, but was unsuccessful, according to Edmund Tie, which is handling the auction.

Edmund Tie has been appointed to manage the auction by the Management Corporation Strata Title (MCST) of The Esparis. This can happen when the MCST of a development decides to put a unit up for sale after the owner defaults on the monthly maintenance fees and sinking fund, according to Section 43 of the Building Maintenance and Strata Management Act.
 


The 99-year leasehold property spans 1,184 sq ft on the fifth floor of the development, says Joy Tan, senior director, head of auction and sales at Edmund Tie. It comes with a yard and household shelter, and faces the tennis court, she adds.


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pasttime
Supreme
25-Jan-2022 06:49     
 
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Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
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 Alert Admin 		hi u pickup a wrong unit to show your point.
the esparis, 16 year old ec.
1. the transacted price for the esparis is about 760 psf.  the asking price of 802  on the high side.
2. the owner is unable to pay conservancy etc. gives a very bad impression to potential owner who want to stay. ie lesser buyers. anyone who want to bid will put in lower then the fair price.
3. property sale of new units and old development are two different market. related but differetn set of buyers. new development buyers are mostly owner who want to stay or investors in very attractive locations. or if developer do a discount sale.    resale old development are mainly for bargain hunter. especiallyd evelopment older then 10 years. people will be looing for location, enbloc, or low price for change of status.
 

ETLee8      ( Date: 24-Jan-2022 22:52) Posted:



SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - A three-bedroom unit at  The Esparis  along Pasir Ris Drive 4 in District 18, was put up for auction for $950,000 ($802 psf) on Jan 19, but was unsuccessful, according to Edmund Tie, which is handling the auction.

Edmund Tie has been appointed to manage the auction by the Management Corporation Strata Title (MCST) of The Esparis. This can happen when the MCST of a development decides to put a unit up for sale after the owner defaults on the monthly maintenance fees and sinking fund, according to Section 43 of the Building Maintenance and Strata Management Act.
 


The 99-year leasehold property spans 1,184 sq ft on the fifth floor of the development, says Joy Tan, senior director, head of auction and sales at Edmund Tie. It comes with a yard and household shelter, and faces the tennis court, she adds.SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - A three-bedroom unit at  The Esparis  along Pasir Ris Drive 4 in District 18, was put up for auction for $950,000 ($802 psf) on Jan 19, but was unsuccessful, according to Edmund Tie, which is handling the auction.

Edmund Tie has been appointed to manage the auction by the Management Corporation Strata Title (MCST) of The Esparis. This can happen when the MCST of a development decides to put a unit up for sale after the owner defaults on the monthly maintenance fees and sinking fund, according to Section 43 of the Building Maintenance and Strata Management Act.
 


The 99-year leasehold property spans 1,184 sq ft on the fifth floor of the development, says Joy Tan, senior director, head of auction and sales at Edmund Tie. It comes with a yard and household shelter, and faces the tennis court, she adds.

pasttime      ( Date: 24-Jan-2022 21:17) Posted:

another dooms day preditor. how many has attempted come and gone,
nothing happen.
do you know why from 0.25 interest rate up prediciton now become 0.5.
because they cannot get enough people to believe. so got to increased the stake to make believe.
all the predicitons , they are also not fed members. only guessing like any other people.
i also make my guess. last year they adjsuted goal post by saying interest should look at moving average. not a single month number.
now they are talking about managing economy with  7% inflation. they never say increased interest rate. i take it as low interest rate with
7% inflation. so that will be 7%  inflation lead economic growth
my guess is as good as any others.
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ETLee8
Master
24-Jan-2022 23:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		From the statistics up to Sep 2021, where got boomimg sales ??, In fact it is droppping !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ETLee8      ( Date: 24-Jan-2022 23:06) Posted:

New Home Sales in Singapore averaged 874.34 Units from 2013 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 2793 Units in March of 2013 and a record low of 230 Units in December of 2014. This page provides - Singapore New Home Sales- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Singapore Private Home Sales - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on January of 2022.

 
 
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Singapore Private Home Sales
 

Singapore Private Home Sales
New home sales in Singapore refers to sales of private homes by developers.
  Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency  
  834.00 1216.00 2793.00 230.00 2013 - 2021 Units Monthly

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ETLee8
Master
24-Jan-2022 23:06     
 
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New Home Sales in Singapore averaged 874.34 Units from 2013 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 2793 Units in March of 2013 and a record low of 230 Units in December of 2014. This page provides - Singapore New Home Sales- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Singapore Private Home Sales - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on January of 2022.

 
 
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Singapore Private Home Sales
 

Singapore Private Home Sales
New home sales in Singapore refers to sales of private homes by developers.
  Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency  
  834.00 1216.00 2793.00 230.00 2013 - 2021 Units Monthly
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ETLee8
Master
24-Jan-2022 22:52     
 
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SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - A three-bedroom unit at  The Esparis  along Pasir Ris Drive 4 in District 18, was put up for auction for $950,000 ($802 psf) on Jan 19, but was unsuccessful, according to Edmund Tie, which is handling the auction.

Edmund Tie has been appointed to manage the auction by the Management Corporation Strata Title (MCST) of The Esparis. This can happen when the MCST of a development decides to put a unit up for sale after the owner defaults on the monthly maintenance fees and sinking fund, according to Section 43 of the Building Maintenance and Strata Management Act.
 


The 99-year leasehold property spans 1,184 sq ft on the fifth floor of the development, says Joy Tan, senior director, head of auction and sales at Edmund Tie. It comes with a yard and household shelter, and faces the tennis court, she adds.SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - A three-bedroom unit at  The Esparis  along Pasir Ris Drive 4 in District 18, was put up for auction for $950,000 ($802 psf) on Jan 19, but was unsuccessful, according to Edmund Tie, which is handling the auction.

Edmund Tie has been appointed to manage the auction by the Management Corporation Strata Title (MCST) of The Esparis. This can happen when the MCST of a development decides to put a unit up for sale after the owner defaults on the monthly maintenance fees and sinking fund, according to Section 43 of the Building Maintenance and Strata Management Act.
 


The 99-year leasehold property spans 1,184 sq ft on the fifth floor of the development, says Joy Tan, senior director, head of auction and sales at Edmund Tie. It comes with a yard and household shelter, and faces the tennis court, she adds.

pasttime      ( Date: 24-Jan-2022 21:17) Posted:

another dooms day preditor. how many has attempted come and gone,
nothing happen.
do you know why from 0.25 interest rate up prediciton now become 0.5.
because they cannot get enough people to believe. so got to increased the stake to make believe.
all the predicitons , they are also not fed members. only guessing like any other people.
i also make my guess. last year they adjsuted goal post by saying interest should look at moving average. not a single month number.
now they are talking about managing economy with  7% inflation. they never say increased interest rate. i take it as low interest rate with
7% inflation. so that will be 7%  inflation lead economic growth
my guess is as good as any others.
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pasttime
Supreme
24-Jan-2022 21:17     
 
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Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
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 Alert Admin 		another dooms day preditor. how many has attempted come and gone,
nothing happen.
do you know why from 0.25 interest rate up prediciton now become 0.5.
because they cannot get enough people to believe. so got to increased the stake to make believe.
all the predicitons , they are also not fed members. only guessing like any other people.
i also make my guess. last year they adjsuted goal post by saying interest should look at moving average. not a single month number.
now they are talking about managing economy with  7% inflation. they never say increased interest rate. i take it as low interest rate with
7% inflation. so that will be 7%  inflation lead economic growth
my guess is as good as any others.
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ETLee8
Master
24-Jan-2022 20:30     
 
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Historic collapse in stocks underway Fed intervention can&rsquo t prevent eventual plunge: Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham, the famed investor who for decades has been calling market bubbles, said the historic collapse in stocks he predicted a year ago is underway and even intervention by the Federal Reserve can&rsquo t prevent an eventual plunge of almost 50%.

  In a  note  posted Thursday, Grantham, the co-founder of Boston asset manager GMO, describes US stocks as being in a &ldquo super bubble,&rdquo only the fourth of the past century. And just as they did in the crash of 1929, the dot-com bust of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008, he&rsquo s certain this bubble will burst, sending indexes back to statistical norms and possibly further.

 

  That, he said, involves the S& P 500 dropping some 45% from Wednesday&rsquo s close -- and 48% from its Jan. 4 peak -- to a level of 2500. The Nasdaq Composite, already down 8.3% this month, may sustain an even bigger correction.

  &ldquo I wasn&rsquo t quite as certain about this bubble a year ago as I had been about the tech bubble of 2000, or as I had been in Japan, or as I had been in the housing bubble of 2007,&rdquo Grantham said in a Bloomberg &ldquo Front Row&rdquo interview. &ldquo I felt highly likely, but perhaps not nearly certain. Today, I feel it is just about nearly certain.&rdquo

  In Grantham&rsquo s analysis, the evidence is abundant. The first sign of trouble he points to came last February, when dozens of the most speculative stocks began falling. One proxy, Cathie Wood&rsquo s Ark Innovation ETF, has since tumbled by 52%. Next, the Russell 2000, an index of mid-cap equities that typically outperforms in a bull market, trailed the S& P 500 in 2021.

 

 
See also:  Morgan Stanley' s senior portfolio manager warns against buying dip in expensive high-growth stocks


  Finally, there was what Grantham calls the kind of &ldquo crazy investor behavior&rdquo indicative of a late-stage bubble: meme stocks, a buying frenzy in electric-vehicle names, the rise of nonsensical cryptocurrencies such a dogecoin and multimillion-dollar prices for non-fungible tokens, or NFTs.

  &ldquo This checklist for a super bubble running through its phases is now complete and the wild rumpus can begin at any time,&rdquo Grantham, 83, writes in his note. &ldquo When pessimism returns to markets, we face the largest potential markdown of perceived wealth in US history.&rdquo

It could, he said, rival the impact of the dual collapse of Japanese stocks and real estate in the late 1980s. Not only are equities in a super bubble, according to Grantham there&rsquo s also a bubble in bonds, &ldquo the broadest and most extreme&rdquo bubble ever in global real estate and an &ldquo incipient bubble&rdquo in commodity prices. Even without a full reversion back to statistical trends, he calculates that losses in the US alone may reach $35 trillion.
Grantham is a dyed-in-the-wool value manager who&rsquo s been investing for 50 years and calling bubbles for almost as long. He knows his predictions are fodder for skeptics. One obvious question: How could the S& P 500 advance 26.9% in 2021 -- its seventh-best performance in 50 years -- if stocks were poised to plummet?

  Rather than disprove his thesis, Grantham said the strength in blue-chip stocks at a time of weakness in speculative bets only reinforces it.

  &ldquo This has been exactly how the great bubbles have broken,&rdquo he said. &ldquo In 1929, the flakes were down for the year before the market broke, they were down 30%. The year before they&rsquo d been up 85%, they had crushed the market.&rdquo

  Seeing the same pattern that played out in every past super bubble is what gives him so much confidence in predicting this one will implode similarly.

  Grantham pins the blame for bubbles of the past 25 years mostly on bad monetary policy. Ever since Alan Greenspan was Fed chairman, he argues, the central bank has &ldquo aided and abetted&rdquo the formation of successive bubbles by first making money too cheap and then rushing to bail out markets when corrections followed.

  Now, investors may no longer be able to count on that implied put. Inflation running at the fastest clip in four decades &ldquo limits&rdquo the Fed&rsquo s ability to stimulate the economy by cutting rates or buying assets, Grantham said.

 

&ldquo They will try, they will have some effect,&rdquo he added. &ldquo There is some element of the put left. It is just heavily compromised.&rdquo
Under these conditions, the traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks offset by bonds offers so little protection it&rsquo s &ldquo absolutely useless,&rdquo Grantham said. He advises selling US equities in favor of stocks trading at cheaper valuations in Japan and emerging markets, owning resources for inflation protection, holding some gold and silver, and raising cash to deploy when prices are once again attractive.

 

&ldquo Everything has consequences and the consequences this time may or may not include some intractable inflation&rdquo Grantham writes. &ldquo But it has already definitely included the most dangerous breadth of asset overpricing in financial history.&rdquo

 
 


pasttime      ( Date: 24-Jan-2022 18:55) Posted:

interest rate up is already in the price in many counters. like banks has over run on interest rate up factor. reits has over down.
real estate.  instutions are collecting. so what do you think?
what if the interest rate up is small or did not happen.

  current inflation are mainly due to high energy price, supply chain issue. china covid-19 lockdown may be next.
let' s look at what has happened. Christmas is over. ie delivery bottom neck due to man power shortage is reducing, can see the baltic dry index
hit a peak of 5600+ in oct to current 1400. in uk when there was delivery problem for oil to petrol station they activated the army to help. wonder
will or can that happen in us if the port/land logistic problem persist?
oil price remain high at 80+  but then what if an agreement is reached with iran. to start export of oil?
fossil fuel production in us is expected to hit a high in 2023 (EIA report). 

oil above 80+ is very lucrative for many oil co to pump at highest speed.
remember those years when people just go crazy to order oil rig when oil price was above 80.
this round is a surprise that like no one speculate
on oil rig any more. maybe the expectations is high oil price will not continue.
when all expectations of inflation is in the price of share and it did not happen.
what do one think will happen?
dyodd
 

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pasttime
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24-Jan-2022 18:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		interest rate up is already in the price in many counters. like banks has over run on interest rate up factor. reits has over down.
real estate.  instutions are collecting. so what do you think?
what if the interest rate up is small or did not happen.

  current inflation are mainly due to high energy price, supply chain issue. china covid-19 lockdown may be next.
let' s look at what has happened. Christmas is over. ie delivery bottom neck due to man power shortage is reducing, can see the baltic dry index
hit a peak of 5600+ in oct to current 1400. in uk when there was delivery problem for oil to petrol station they activated the army to help. wonder
will or can that happen in us if the port/land logistic problem persist?
oil price remain high at 80+  but then what if an agreement is reached with iran. to start export of oil?
fossil fuel production in us is expected to hit a high in 2023 (EIA report). 

oil above 80+ is very lucrative for many oil co to pump at highest speed.
remember those years when people just go crazy to order oil rig when oil price was above 80.
this round is a surprise that like no one speculate
on oil rig any more. maybe the expectations is high oil price will not continue.
when all expectations of inflation is in the price of share and it did not happen.
what do one think will happen?
dyodd
 
 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
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