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The Best of the Best Banks
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MrBear12
Supreme |
23-Nov-2024 11:28
Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us" |
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No need to declare a fixed dividend policy or raise the payout ratio just to entice investors.
A payout ratio of 50 percent is just fine. Fair to investor and to company. A dividend cover of 2 makes dbs both a value and growth stock finely balanced. I think that is the aim of both ocbc and dbs. Especially with ocbc, I recall seeing Helen mention this. |
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gjames2402
Member |
23-Nov-2024 10:48
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Agree @emailpeter. The difference in valuatin between CBA and DBS is vast . Whilst CBA is almost certainly overvalued -DBS is unquestionably undervalued. CBAs secret sauce basicly is it ROE metrics (16.19%) coupled with its high dividend payout policy -circa 80%. This is written policy. Basically you are getting 80% of a 16% return. CBA close above $150 this week and it is not profitble, large, or have the growth prospects that DBS has. If DBS was listed on the ASX it would be pulling a sp significantly over $100. So why is DBS not valued like CBA ? I think basically it simply is not on big investors radar. It will be , and its becoming so, but not there in big way. I also think that DBS board have just woken up to the ROE metric being front of mind of international institutional investors in respect to analysiing banks. It explains why DBS just just started a share buy back.....just months after doing a bonus issue!. The other half of the equation for DBS to start trading at international valuation multiples is the Dividend payout ratio which seems to hover around 50%. I cannot find in board statements or notice to stock exchange a formal statement of declared policy of dividend distribution as a % of earnings. Until this is made crystal clear and chisled in stone publicaly, international institutional investors have to assume the % payout ratio is discretionary and variable, and therefore valuations metrics that use discounted cash flow will mark it down significantly. If DBS copied CBA and declared a fixed % divident payout like the CBA (80%) - then the shareprice will rocket up. $50 will be a speck in the rear view mirror. Finally - I think DBS day in the sun is coming, and from different directions. The worlds largest investment banks (Goldman, UBS, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley) have released their 2025 outlook statements. There is a lot to unpack but there are two key themes. 2025 is the year of earnings. US stocks as so fully (over) valued in 2024 on the promise of future earnings, there is little head room for upward movement. There will be significant rotation out of stocks that miss earnings in 2025 into those that do have earnings. Specifically UBS is calling for selected diversitifcation out of US growth stocks into " dividend players in Asia with a growth bent" . IMHO there is scarcely a better company that meets this profile than DBS even though it was not named specfically. Maybe they are keeping this secret to themselves. A second interesting movement is the Australian superannuation funds (with over $1t in investments) are faltering for returns as they have so much cash chasing so few options in Australia. They are being actively told to move and invest the cash overshore. Australian super funds looooovvvvvve banks. So watch this space. Momentum is with DBS - good luck to all holders. I think $50 will be blown away before June 25.
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emailpeter
Veteran |
22-Nov-2024 17:06
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Yes, I am gathering views from all your good insights below.
It's seems like past juncture where I "reluctantly" bought in lots at $30-32, it felt so expensive then. We might well be at $42 and it will vibrate all over towards >50. That's why I asked my questions below.... Cheers investors and have a great weekend. |
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huattuatua
Elite |
22-Nov-2024 16:53
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my guesstimate is around 65 cts per qtr from fy 25 onwards, just my pov again
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aragosta
Supreme |
22-Nov-2024 16:48
Yells: "BBs never say why when they buy; never tell when they sell" |
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And that was in August..... and fundamentals have now changed so much..... by the next FY results report, it would be even better...... there has to be an increase in dividends...has to! I' m guessing 54 to 60 plus another special 50.... bringing the total final payout to $1.10.....
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MrBear12
Supreme |
22-Nov-2024 16:48
Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us" |
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What do you expect for dividend payout next year, huattuatua??
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huattuatua
Elite |
22-Nov-2024 16:43
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of course boleh la but 60 cts per qtr is too meagre imho, remember PG did say that after the sbb, dbs still have around 3B-5B excess capital to be returned and to reward shareholders, so i m definitely expecting more than the existing 54 cts and ur projected 60 cts div. my pov.
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MrBear12
Supreme |
22-Nov-2024 16:14
Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us" |
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That is expect next year dividend 2.40 payout. 5% yield = $48 dollars next year Boleh?
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MrBear12
Supreme |
22-Nov-2024 15:44
Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us" |
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A final dividend of 60 cents is good. Yield about 5 percent means a price of 48 dollars.
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huattuatua
Elite |
22-Nov-2024 14:48
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think theres no special dividend this yr, as it has been replaced by a more lucrative bonus issue
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MrBear12
Supreme |
22-Nov-2024 11:40
Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us" |
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They shall pass
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emailpeter
Veteran |
22-Nov-2024 11:38
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Yes Mrbear, you know my attitude to DBS. To me this is another CBA Aust bank climb over many more years to a decade. We could well see it go past $100. Global markets is going to be very volatile going forward. You'd remember the very recent plunge from $38 to 33. It's opportunities like these that some can DCA on these dips. What do you think of these events ?
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MrBear12
Supreme |
22-Nov-2024 11:34
Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us" |
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Buy if got fat bonus.
Else, keep for another 20 years at least. Younger ones can dca |
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emailpeter
Veteran |
22-Nov-2024 11:32
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Guys, at this juncture $42.31 adjusted for bonus, special div, and just recent fresh div (1 time as it just got ex) = (42.31 x 1.1) + 0.50 + 0.54 = 47.60.
I still want to continue DCA, what is your consensus ? Wait for any global correction news ? Cheers and have great weekend. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
22-Nov-2024 11:16
Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us" |
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Next year
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pikachu
Master |
22-Nov-2024 06:48
Yells: "Holy Cow!" |
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$50 soon! | |||||||||||
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aragosta
Supreme |
21-Nov-2024 22:00
Yells: "BBs never say why when they buy; never tell when they sell" |
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IS DBS' s PRICE TOO HIGH NOW? THEN, WHY ARE FUNDS & HIGH NET-WORTH PEOPLE STILL BUYING BY THE LOADS? HOW HIGH CAN IT GO? In August this year, one bro wrote in another thread about the instrinic values of the banks, among them, DBS, and I responded with the following post........
He responded with a very interesting note
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aragosta
Supreme |
21-Nov-2024 10:23
Yells: "BBs never say why when they buy; never tell when they sell" |
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Let talk some history .... In FY22, the final dividends were increased from the quarterly 36 to 42 plus a special 50 In FY23, the final dividends were increased from the quarterly 48 to 54 plus a special 10:1 bonus share. Go do the math what' s the pattern % increase is Will history repeat itself?..... well, all indications that it could be, but most likely it will be....... the popular black market belief is likely it will be at least a dollar total payout, bringing a final total of 262 The frightening thing is even if sp keeps shooting up, that even at $45, this will STILL give an indicative almost 6% yield....... But will price still keep climbing? This is where sbb comes in, if needed, to ' weaponise' the price, when the leadership transition takes place, which the company wants it to be as smooth as possible...... a all these, of course, provided there' s no nuclear war..... |
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aragosta
Supreme |
19-Nov-2024 15:22
Yells: "BBs never say why when they buy; never tell when they sell" |
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I say one more time....this sbb, where shares r cancelled, is more potent than many tidak apa kateks think..... when it happens, even if the toilet is near u, you won' t have enough time to lift up the toilet cover to poo..... |
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aragosta
Supreme |
18-Nov-2024 22:23
Yells: "BBs never say why when they buy; never tell when they sell" |
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The insiders will not let the price go below 40..... that' s where and when sbb comes in ..... once sbb kicks in in what ever form,there will be earthquakes |
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