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Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang Post Reply Rate topic
nqing87 Supreme	01-May-2015 12:42        nqing87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	well, what i see the main reson for rise is probably big players think YZJ will be the yard that will survive & stand out the rest of china yard, and also, recently there' s funds flowing into china counters, S-chips here also move to some extent.. throughout my 2.5 years in play shares, even if a counter u feel is undervalue, price may continue to fall, and even if u think price is overvalue, it may continue to goes up.. it doesnt matter much of what u think, even if u are right.. what' s impt is what BB think.. if u know how BB & where funds are going to, u will more likely going to make money.. but since we retailers have no connection to these rich ppl, we can only do our best to find good fundamental cheap stocks, which hopefully will have improve chances that BB will find it undervalue as well, and push the price up..
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frozentouch Member	01-May-2015 00:20        frozentouch About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Few thoughts after attending AGM today. 1. Shipbuilding, esp in China is in a very tough environment now. Mr Ren mentioned that even in the white list of about 70, 10 is already struggling badly. Shipyards have dropped from a peak of 1,300 to about 100 or 300 (forgot the exact numbers) now. 2. Shipyards with financial strength to commit to the building of ships are of great importance to ship owners now. With that in mind, it is important to note that govt linked PRC firms are having a better (but not good) time than private shipyards as they have more financial backing. YZJ is one of the few private shipyards that enjoys banking support. Like what Mr Ren says, banks only loan to those who have the money (i.e low risk). 3. YZJ is only not interested to buy over shipyards to increase capacity. Instead, it is only interested in those that can enhance its competitiveness. This gels with media reports today that currently one target is Rongsheng, which may have the kind of assets that YZJ is looking out for. 4. YZJ may be looking at building yatchs and is interested in working with shipyards which have such capabilities. 5. YZJ acknowledge that this after 1st quarter of 2014, it has been a brutal year and does not see a quick recovery. 6. Current GPM will be lower as the ships built now are those that were contracted after the boom years before the GFC. Hence IMO, a lower profit margin is still better than single digits/ no orders or worse, negative margins.
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ascend88 Master	30-Apr-2015 20:13        ascend88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	will be the kepcorp of china ! FATABA      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 14:12) Posted: YZJ is and will remain a major challenge to Koreans, Singpaore etc. Not surprise it will be the KEP Corp of China. There is just a few IMPORTANT point 1. Results is certainly consider GOOD...looking are the current industry. It is still profitable 2. YZJ continue to win orders...AND certainly better margin compare to the past order (so future result certainly better) 3. Currently YZJ are reducting its HTM side..and so factoring this into this quarter results...it is still good 4. A PE of 7.5, BD value of 1.13 ...it is relatively in good position for the future growth. ( dont forget a great dividnd yeild too,,,5,5 cents last round) For those who wish to short ( capturing those minor up and down) ..I have no comment But if this industry trun around ( and knowing YZJ is alrdy doing oK now)   ....what do you YZJ will be ? Happy investing . soojinhou      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 13:45) Posted: Mr Market is very illogical isn't it? I think Mr Market is finally acknowledging yzj is capable of challenging the biggest yards in the world like Samsung Heavy Industries, Sembcorp or Keppel. Compare to these established players, yzj's valuation is a steal. If they are able to execute the lng tanker as well as their 10k teu containership, Samsung Heavy Industries will be having cold sweat. Sometimes it takes a very difficult business climate to separate the fittest from the rest, and I believe yzj is such a case. Just take a look at other shipbuilders, most of them are doing much much worse.
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Qanghoo Supreme	30-Apr-2015 19:30        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I thought the results were not so good.  N this reflects the state of the Chinese economy as well as the gloomy world shipping situation.  Think BDI was only 500+ the last ttime I checked.  So, I said COSCO' s result wld mirror YJZ' s.  I was wrong.  COSCO' s result turned out to be much worse.  Maybe most of their contracts over the last few yrs were won at fire-sale rates.  Maybe too they thought they cld cut corners to squeeze better margins out.  But obviously this did not turn out that way.  Ronron      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 18:19) Posted: I think a few facts cannot be ignored. The shipping cycle is entering a trough through low BDI. It takes a while for the R& D side to show up in the L& G segment. I would say short term is peaking but long term may have some ways to go. This year will see their order book deplete as the industry is still in a difficult position which I believe has one or two more years to play out. A nice pull back should be in place after the XD period that is more than the dividend amount. Profit taking has to come in some time soon.
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Ronron Member	30-Apr-2015 18:19        Ronron About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think a few facts cannot be ignored. The shipping cycle is entering a trough through low BDI. It takes a while for the R& D side to show up in the L& G segment. I would say short term is peaking but long term may have some ways to go. This year will see their order book deplete as the industry is still in a difficult position which I believe has one or two more years to play out. A nice pull back should be in place after the XD period that is more than the dividend amount. Profit taking has to come in some time soon.
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granto Master	30-Apr-2015 15:00        granto About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This report has much better info on it... &lsquo We are not interested in anyone else but Rongsheng&rsquo : Yangzijiang boss  -  http://splash247.com/we-are-not-interested-in-anyone-else-but-rongsheng-yangzijiang-boss/
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earlybird14 Supreme	30-Apr-2015 14:36        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/asia/yangzijiang-confirms-interest-in-rongsheng-stake.html YZJ CEO is really a smart CEO. Privately-owned Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has confirmed its interest in taking a stake in troubled compatriot Rongsheng Heavy Industries, which is currently going through a restructuring. Ren Yuanlin, executive chairman of Yangzijiang, revealed at a press briefing in Singapore on Thursday that his company is only interested in investing in Rongsheng at the moment, rather than complete takeover of the shipbuilder. But the potential investment into Rongsheng is at an early stage, and Ren made clear that the deal may or may not happen for Yangzijiang. He pointed out Rongsheng has existing assets and facilities that are attractive and would add value to Yangzijiang, provided the acquisition terms and conditions are mutually agreed by both parties. &ldquo There is no decision on the Rongsheng deal at the moment. The Chinese government would like us to invest in Rongsheng but we need to look at the value of the investment before making a decision,&rdquo Ren said. In March this year, Yangzijiang announced it has been approached by the relevant Chinese authorities to consider taking a stake in ailing Rongsheng. Back then, Ren already said that any acquisition decisions need to be based on timing, price and market conditions. The potential deal between Rongsheng and Yangzijiang is expected to arrive at a clearer stage by June this year, according to Ren, the same month that Rongsheng expects its restructuring to be comnpleted. Meanwhile, Singapore-listed Yangzijiang reported a dip in first quarter earnings compared to year-ago figures. Net profit for the quarter was recorded at RMB706.88m ($113.92m), down 12% from RMB799.19m in the same period of 2014. Revenue also dropped by 14% year-on-year to RMB3.04bn due mainly to lower contributions from the shipbuilding related segment. As at 30 April 2015, the group&rsquo s outstanding orderbook stood at 114 vessels with a total value of $4.6bn, and will keep the yards utilised until at least the end of 2016. In shipbuilding orders, Yangzijiang announced it has entered into contracts with Seaspan Corp for options of additional six units of 10,000 teu containerships, after the shipowner recently exercised options for two of the 10,000 teu boxships. This brings Seaspan&rsquo s 10,000 teu boxship orders at Yangzijiang to 13 firm contracts and 18 options.
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soojinhou Member	30-Apr-2015 14:36        soojinhou About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	My hkex app AASTOCKS shows short volume and the volume as a % of total trade. Wonder if there is something similar for sgx earlybird14      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 14:24) Posted: got such app? soojinhou      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 14:17) Posted: Can anyone share with me an app to monitor short volume?
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earlybird14 Supreme	30-Apr-2015 14:24        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	got such app? soojinhou      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 14:17) Posted: Can anyone share with me an app to monitor short volume?
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soojinhou Member	30-Apr-2015 14:17        soojinhou About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Can anyone share with me an app to monitor short volume?
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FATABA Supreme	30-Apr-2015 14:12        FATABA About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	YZJ is and will remain a major challenge to Koreans, Singpaore etc. Not surprise it will be the KEP Corp of China. There is just a few IMPORTANT point 1. Results is certainly consider GOOD...looking are the current industry. It is still profitable 2. YZJ continue to win orders...AND certainly better margin compare to the past order (so future result certainly better) 3. Currently YZJ are reducting its HTM side..and so factoring this into this quarter results...it is still good 4. A PE of 7.5, BD value of 1.13 ...it is relatively in good position for the future growth. ( dont forget a great dividnd yeild too,,,5,5 cents last round) For those who wish to short ( capturing those minor up and down) ..I have no comment But if this industry trun around ( and knowing YZJ is alrdy doing oK now)   ....what do you YZJ will be ? Happy investing . soojinhou      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 13:45) Posted: Mr Market is very illogical isn't it? I think Mr Market is finally acknowledging yzj is capable of challenging the biggest yards in the world like Samsung Heavy Industries, Sembcorp or Keppel. Compare to these established players, yzj's valuation is a steal. If they are able to execute the lng tanker as well as their 10k teu containership, Samsung Heavy Industries will be having cold sweat. Sometimes it takes a very difficult business climate to separate the fittest from the rest, and I believe yzj is such a case. Just take a look at other shipbuilders, most of them are doing much much worse. earlybird14      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 12:44) Posted: More vessels were delivered with less revenue, gross profit is dropping mean present order margin is lower. Net profit is supported by other gains, otherwise, it will be a sustaintial drop in revenue and profit. 1Q orderbook is less, this will continue for the whole 2015 based on present BDI index and container freight rate which caused by over capacity. YJZ performed better in 2014 but price didn' t go up to this level, result getting worse but price getting higher and higher. Share market is always depend on big players' mood.
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earlybird14 Supreme	30-Apr-2015 14:04        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Anyway, i shorted YJZ again. Sell in May and go away, this has happen in US market, curious to know if China market will happen soon or not. earlybird14      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 13:51) Posted: The short volume is building up day by day. Who know what will be next? As what i know YJZ is the 2nd china yard which can build lng tanker, the 1st shipyard is a gov linked yard which is building lng vessels for china usage. The competition of shipbuilding is very fierce, especially in 2015 which is the year of vessels flooding.   soojinhou      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 13:45) Posted: Mr Market is very illogical isn't it? I think Mr Market is finally acknowledging yzj is capable of challenging the biggest yards in the world like Samsung Heavy Industries, Sembcorp or Keppel. Compare to these established players, yzj's valuation is a steal. If they are able to execute the lng tanker as well as their 10k teu containership, Samsung Heavy Industries will be having cold sweat. Sometimes it takes a very difficult business climate to separate the fittest from the rest, and I believe yzj is such a case. Just take a look at other shipbuilders, most of them are doing much much worse.
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earlybird14 Supreme	30-Apr-2015 13:51        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The short volume is building up day by day. Who know what will be next? As what i know YJZ is the 2nd china yard which can build lng tanker, the 1st shipyard is a gov linked yard which is building lng vessels for china usage. The competition of shipbuilding is very fierce, especially in 2015 which is the year of vessels flooding.   soojinhou      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 13:45) Posted: Mr Market is very illogical isn't it? I think Mr Market is finally acknowledging yzj is capable of challenging the biggest yards in the world like Samsung Heavy Industries, Sembcorp or Keppel. Compare to these established players, yzj's valuation is a steal. If they are able to execute the lng tanker as well as their 10k teu containership, Samsung Heavy Industries will be having cold sweat. Sometimes it takes a very difficult business climate to separate the fittest from the rest, and I believe yzj is such a case. Just take a look at other shipbuilders, most of them are doing much much worse. earlybird14      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 12:44) Posted: More vessels were delivered with less revenue, gross profit is dropping mean present order margin is lower. Net profit is supported by other gains, otherwise, it will be a sustaintial drop in revenue and profit. 1Q orderbook is less, this will continue for the whole 2015 based on present BDI index and container freight rate which caused by over capacity. YJZ performed better in 2014 but price didn' t go up to this level, result getting worse but price getting higher and higher. Share market is always depend on big players' mood.
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soojinhou Member	30-Apr-2015 13:45        soojinhou About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Mr Market is very illogical isn't it? I think Mr Market is finally acknowledging yzj is capable of challenging the biggest yards in the world like Samsung Heavy Industries, Sembcorp or Keppel. Compare to these established players, yzj's valuation is a steal. If they are able to execute the lng tanker as well as their 10k teu containership, Samsung Heavy Industries will be having cold sweat. Sometimes it takes a very difficult business climate to separate the fittest from the rest, and I believe yzj is such a case. Just take a look at other shipbuilders, most of them are doing much much worse. earlybird14      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 12:44) Posted: More vessels were delivered with less revenue, gross profit is dropping mean present order margin is lower. Net profit is supported by other gains, otherwise, it will be a sustaintial drop in revenue and profit. 1Q orderbook is less, this will continue for the whole 2015 based on present BDI index and container freight rate which caused by over capacity. YJZ performed better in 2014 but price didn' t go up to this level, result getting worse but price getting higher and higher. Share market is always depend on big players' mood. ascend88      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 09:13) Posted: my view is results is good.
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earlybird14 Supreme	30-Apr-2015 12:44        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	More vessels were delivered with less revenue, gross profit is dropping mean present order margin is lower. Net profit is supported by other gains, otherwise, it will be a sustaintial drop in revenue and profit. 1Q orderbook is less, this will continue for the whole 2015 based on present BDI index and container freight rate which caused by over capacity. YJZ performed better in 2014 but price didn' t go up to this level, result getting worse but price getting higher and higher. Share market is always depend on big players' mood. ascend88      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 09:13) Posted: my view is results is good. Qanghoo      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 07:28) Posted: Result not so good.  Gross margin down.  Cosco will mirror this?
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Yangsogood Senior	30-Apr-2015 12:42        Yangsogood About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	And the market likes the numbers....good enuf to keep the ships afloat soojinhou      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 12:33) Posted: I think result is good. Yzj did well in spite of the really difficult business environment. Ev/ebitda is in the low single digit. It's flagship 10k teu containership is selling like hot cake, and for the future, yzj has indicated it is doing R&D into lng carrier 3 times the capacity of the current one they r building. In spite of the severe headwinds, I think results are good, results r from the orders they secure after the gfc, which carries lower margin.
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soojinhou Member	30-Apr-2015 12:33        soojinhou About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	I think result is good. Yzj did well in spite of the really difficult business environment. Ev/ebitda is in the low single digit. It's flagship 10k teu containership is selling like hot cake, and for the future, yzj has indicated it is doing R&D into lng carrier 3 times the capacity of the current one they r building. In spite of the severe headwinds, I think results are good, results r from the orders they secure after the gfc, which carries lower margin.
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pretarious Senior	30-Apr-2015 11:48        pretarious About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "Avoid those who profit on your greed or your fears"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The market seems to think that results are good.  A solid 1.2 mil short volume was done yesterday and repealed out today. YZJ warrants went up on liquidity and bids.  Qanghoo      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 11:44) Posted: U are right.  News just two sides of the same coin.  People flip it like rota prata when it suits them.  Anyway, bottomline is YJZ' s results reflects the difficulties the PRC economy is embroiled in now.  That' s why I think COSCO' s results may not be so good too, even though they have made a lot of efforts to improve.  nqing87      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 09:48) Posted: hmm.. compare to Q1 2014, i look at revenue, drop.. profit, drop.. gross margin, drop.. i dunno how is it good results? unless u are saying market had anticipated very bad results, but this result released was better than what was expected.. but anyway, BB do the talking.. news are just 2 sides of  the same  coin..
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Qanghoo Supreme	30-Apr-2015 11:44        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	U are right.  News just two sides of the same coin.  People flip it like rota prata when it suits them.  Anyway, bottomline is YJZ' s results reflects the difficulties the PRC economy is embroiled in now.  That' s why I think COSCO' s results may not be so good too, even though they have made a lot of efforts to improve.  nqing87      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 09:48) Posted: hmm.. compare to Q1 2014, i look at revenue, drop.. profit, drop.. gross margin, drop.. i dunno how is it good results? unless u are saying market had anticipated very bad results, but this result released was better than what was expected.. but anyway, BB do the talking.. news are just 2 sides of  the same  coin.. ascend88      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 09:13) Posted: my view is results is good.
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Yangsogood Senior	30-Apr-2015 11:35        Yangsogood About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agree with u and like the reports...   ascend88      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 09:13) Posted: my view is results is good. Qanghoo      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 07:28) Posted: Result not so good.  Gross margin down.  Cosco will mirror this?
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