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Latest Forum Topics / YZJ Shipbldg SGD    Last:3.46    -0.12  Post Reply
Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang
Yangsogood
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07-May-2015 12:10     
 
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Thanks for the good advice master....

Shout out to  other nice passengers......more beautiful sceneries ahead.....stay on board

It' s a beutiful day and the temperature is just right for sun bathing

 
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ascend88
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07-May-2015 12:04     
 
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can u see now....many pple wants to buy ur tickets...to board this giant ships...

cos the euro and yen...and comin soon the yuan...tsunami is coming...

hold on tight tight...

 

 

Yangsogood      ( Date: 06-May-2015 11:16) Posted:



Yes Master......

ascend88      ( Date: 06-May-2015 11:14) Posted:

Dear yang..

Hold on tight tight .. Dun let go Ur ticket .. Many out there will try to trick or scam U into selling to them cheap cheap ...

If u watch the movie 2012... U are of one those on board now
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ascend88
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07-May-2015 12:01     
 
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refresh ....no 2$ no sell

fat dividend coming...:)

 

hope nobody sold cheaply to the sharks last few days...

 

ascend88      ( Date: 04-May-2015 11:06) Posted:



filter out the noise.....focus on the future....

as when the future comes....it will not be this price....

like i back in those times....when yzj was at trading at 86c - 1$

good luck

 

 

ascend88      ( Date: 30-Apr-2015 09:11) Posted:



results is within my expectation....good job Mr Ren....

 

Able to maintain margin at  26-21%...good...nvr  take in lousy contracts job

scale down of HTM 

New contracts win

more R& D in LNG for future LNG contracts wins

Ranked No1 in china by Clarkson Research   

prime goal is to enhance shareholder value i.e not to do nationa service ...


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ascend88
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07-May-2015 11:58     
 
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wonderful and yummy....

 

FATABA      ( Date: 07-May-2015 10:39) Posted:



Much were discussed about latest YZJ result , etc. I guess the below argument from RHB has many valued points....FYI and happy investing. : ))

 

Yangzijiang&rsquo s 1Q15 PATMI of CNY707m (-12% YoY, +11% QoQ) met 20% of our earnings estimate as investment revenue was seasonally low. Maintain BUY, with a higher SGD1.92 SOP-based TP (32% upside, from SGD1.68). Margins could remain firm as the company continues to focus on larger containerships. China&rsquo s shipyard industry may further consolidate, which would cut the number of desperate competitors and potentially provide Yangzijiang with targets for acquisition.
■ The final 25% can thrive
According to the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry, the number of Chinese shipyards has declined to about 1,600 in 2014 from over 3,000 in 2012. Only half of these 1,600 shipyards are expected to remain in business by end-2015. This reduction in the number of competitors would relieve margin pressure and provide Yangzijiang with potential acquisition targets to grow its capacity. We believe the company would target yards with: i) the capability to build large vessels, and ii) a low or zero orderbook to mitigate legacy-issue risks. Yangzijiang&rsquo s orderbook remains stable at USD4.6bn, with USD0.37bn worth of new orders YTD.
 
■ Larger containerships and LNG vessels to support margins
Shipbuilding margins were at 20.8% in 1Q15 vs c.20% in FY14. We expect margins to be supported in the high-teens range, as the company continues to build higher-margin 10,000 twenty-foot-equivalent (TEU) containerships. Going forward, Yangzijiang aims to increase the size of its containerships. The company was the only Chinese shipyard to have succeeded in the first round of bidding for contracts for some 14,000TEU containerships, squaring off against one other Japanese competitor (which, in our view, is a solid indication of its build quality and competitiveness). We also see near-term catalysts in the form of contracts for liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, a new product line the company recently launched, with two orders in the bag.
■ Maintain BUY, with a higher SGD1.92 TP
We continue to like Yangzijiang as one of the most efficient and technologically-advanced Chinese shipbuilders. Maintain BUY with a higher SOP-based TP of SGD1.92 TP (from SGD1.68), which values the shipbuilding business at 10x (from 8x) FY15F earnings and only the book value for its financial assets which continue to earn > 10% per year.

Source : RHB Research
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Yangsogood
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07-May-2015 11:01     
 
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Thanks to senior Fataba for point out that rainbow is on the viewing list at the end of the sail.

Each  passenger will get  pieces of fried chicken wrapped in  gold paper as snack in the journey.

 

 
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Yangsogood
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07-May-2015 10:43     
 
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Dear Nice Passengers

There are plenty of safety measures on board...the wind is breezy and the sky is clear

The sharks in the water are for your viewing amusement although they only stay above water for a short while.

Signing off with a shout out to Yangzijiang....Jia you....ship ahoy
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FATABA
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07-May-2015 10:39     
 
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Much were discussed about latest YZJ result , etc. I guess the below argument from RHB has many valued points....FYI and happy investing. : ))

 

Yangzijiang&rsquo s 1Q15 PATMI of CNY707m (-12% YoY, +11% QoQ) met 20% of our earnings estimate as investment revenue was seasonally low. Maintain BUY, with a higher SGD1.92 SOP-based TP (32% upside, from SGD1.68). Margins could remain firm as the company continues to focus on larger containerships. China&rsquo s shipyard industry may further consolidate, which would cut the number of desperate competitors and potentially provide Yangzijiang with targets for acquisition.
■ The final 25% can thrive
According to the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry, the number of Chinese shipyards has declined to about 1,600 in 2014 from over 3,000 in 2012. Only half of these 1,600 shipyards are expected to remain in business by end-2015. This reduction in the number of competitors would relieve margin pressure and provide Yangzijiang with potential acquisition targets to grow its capacity. We believe the company would target yards with: i) the capability to build large vessels, and ii) a low or zero orderbook to mitigate legacy-issue risks. Yangzijiang&rsquo s orderbook remains stable at USD4.6bn, with USD0.37bn worth of new orders YTD.
 
■ Larger containerships and LNG vessels to support margins
Shipbuilding margins were at 20.8% in 1Q15 vs c.20% in FY14. We expect margins to be supported in the high-teens range, as the company continues to build higher-margin 10,000 twenty-foot-equivalent (TEU) containerships. Going forward, Yangzijiang aims to increase the size of its containerships. The company was the only Chinese shipyard to have succeeded in the first round of bidding for contracts for some 14,000TEU containerships, squaring off against one other Japanese competitor (which, in our view, is a solid indication of its build quality and competitiveness). We also see near-term catalysts in the form of contracts for liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, a new product line the company recently launched, with two orders in the bag.
■ Maintain BUY, with a higher SGD1.92 TP
We continue to like Yangzijiang as one of the most efficient and technologically-advanced Chinese shipbuilders. Maintain BUY with a higher SOP-based TP of SGD1.92 TP (from SGD1.68), which values the shipbuilding business at 10x (from 8x) FY15F earnings and only the book value for its financial assets which continue to earn > 10% per year.

Source : RHB Research
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Yangsogood
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07-May-2015 10:30     
 
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Again, that is a negative linear projection  on the  new orders

The only thing i like is the fear factor [due to market  folk psychology]

Relatively speaking, the revenue and profit margin  might be conisidered good, among the peers

Unless one finds a better track to park for higher returns,

the   stayers might get  to hear  unexpected pleasant surprises, positively speaking

 

 
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earlybird14
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07-May-2015 10:18     
 
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If you are talking about a company with revenue and profit growth plus a good margin.

YJZ? Revenue, profit, margin is decreasing. New orders are dry. 

After Ex-D, price drop, fear will spread due to no more expectation on this company. Price at high, shortsellers will fly to this counter and short.

Next week, you will see. I am not always right. But my score rate is 60%.

Yangsogood      ( Date: 07-May-2015 10:10) Posted:



If after the ex-D nose dive, the price recovers swiftly then wouldn' t it be good to keep them

Almost like eating the cake and keep it.

On the other hand, run off high is part of the game too and early has a point there.

[provided the high runners don' t run into a false track]

 

 

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Yangsogood
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07-May-2015 10:10     
 
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If after the ex-D nose dive, the price recovers swiftly then wouldn' t it be good to keep them

Almost like eating the cake and keep it.

On the other hand, run off high is part of the game too and early has a point there.

[provided the high runners don' t run into a false track]

 

 
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earlybird14
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07-May-2015 09:49     
 
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Great chance for shareholders to run.

Look at today Ex-D capitaland, 3.79 highest, yesterday closed at 3.76. Now 3.61, dividend 9cents but Ex-d day drop 16cents.

I expect YJZ will up down between 1.4 to 1.48 level ( won' t be higher than 1.48) till Ex-D date, a big drop will be expected on Ex-D date. 

No exception, including YJZ.
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Yangsogood
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07-May-2015 09:38     
 
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Here is DBS VIckers comment, selectively quoted, below.

Full report at http://www.yzjship.com/upload/doc/DBSVickers.pdf

Higher DPS

  FY14 core PATMI beat expectations

  Final DPS higher at 5.5 Scts, from 5 Scts last year

  Recent award of order for LNG carriers raises

Yangzijiang&rsquo s profile as a top notch shipbuilder

  Maintain BUY TP S$1.62

Yangsogood      ( Date: 06-May-2015 15:33) Posted:



That is a linear projection with an inclination for it to go down.

There might be  other factors (of course with an inclination for it to up)

Say 1.  Things mentioned in  UOB kayhian and OCBC reports turn out fine

              2. Central government orders for defense build-up

            3. Qatari funds flushes in

            4. More yards  merging with  YZJ

            5. Collaboration with big players

              6. A drop of shorters...just saying

            7. New innovative fund for Shipyards....

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earlybird14
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06-May-2015 19:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Don't need to counter me. No point. Yzj is down and down. My present profit is enough to cope with the dividend that ig market going to charge me. I am just waiting to see what is the price after ex-d, then collect my profit within few day after ex-d.

pretarious      ( Date: 06-May-2015 16:59) Posted:



What you said now has base in terms of argument. This kind of posts add value, hence +1. I will counter it later, but at the moment your analysis of TA is good, FA still has holes.  

earlybird14      ( Date: 06-May-2015 15:19) Posted:



A lot of warrant structure is paper in SGX. The fear is there, no created by me but the BBs. 

Why 1 dollar? simple, in 2013, YZJ net income was 3095Mil, price was below 1 dollar. 1Q 2015 net profit was RM706.88. If YZJ is lucky to maintain the same profit, 2015 will be about 2800Mil which is much less than 2013. But in fact, can YZJ maintain this? I think very tough, look at past 4 quarters, Gross profit is decreased from 1183, 1063.92, 848.51, to 783.24. Last quarter has 1 operating expenses gain 136mio which make 1Q 2015 look better than 4Q 2014. But overall, the main business gross profit is decreasing and this will be continue in 2015 since the coming orders were secured under fierce competition in 2013 to 2014.

This obviously is a pump and dump process. First stage is done, next stage is dump dump dump, TA and FA are both bearish to YZJ, what else shortseller want? Perfect timing to short to gain handsome profit.


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pretarious
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06-May-2015 16:59     
 
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Yells: "Avoid those who profit on your greed or your fears"
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What you said now has base in terms of argument. This kind of posts add value, hence +1. I will counter it later, but at the moment your analysis of TA is good, FA still has holes.  

earlybird14      ( Date: 06-May-2015 15:19) Posted:



A lot of warrant structure is paper in SGX. The fear is there, no created by me but the BBs. 

Why 1 dollar? simple, in 2013, YZJ net income was 3095Mil, price was below 1 dollar. 1Q 2015 net profit was RM706.88. If YZJ is lucky to maintain the same profit, 2015 will be about 2800Mil which is much less than 2013. But in fact, can YZJ maintain this? I think very tough, look at past 4 quarters, Gross profit is decreased from 1183, 1063.92, 848.51, to 783.24. Last quarter has 1 operating expenses gain 136mio which make 1Q 2015 look better than 4Q 2014. But overall, the main business gross profit is decreasing and this will be continue in 2015 since the coming orders were secured under fierce competition in 2013 to 2014.

This obviously is a pump and dump process. First stage is done, next stage is dump dump dump, TA and FA are both bearish to YZJ, what else shortseller want? Perfect timing to short to gain handsome profit.

pretarious      ( Date: 06-May-2015 10:45) Posted:



Early

Did you forget what happened with Ezion when it went below 1? There are few finnancial institutions who can issue structured warrants in Singapore. They have much to gain/loose if there quoted warrant structure does not trade (in general the impact on warrants is 5 to 20 times to underlying stock). There is a never associated here and for very good reason. You were trying your fear tactics as usual with little or zero base to your claim " below 1 dollar is long term TP" . 

Shortist dream case TP will be 1.2x, no less. 1.36 from your current quote sounds more rational. Keep your comment fact based. 


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Yangsogood
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06-May-2015 15:35     
 
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At first....it was all paper

earlybird14      ( Date: 06-May-2015 15:19) Posted:



A lot of warrant structure is paper in SGX. The fear is there, no created by me but the BBs. 

Why 1 dollar? simple, in 2013, YZJ net income was 3095Mil, price was below 1 dollar. 1Q 2015 net profit was RM706.88. If YZJ is lucky to maintain the same profit, 2015 will be about 2800Mil which is much less than 2013. But in fact, can YZJ maintain this? I think very tough, look at past 4 quarters, Gross profit is decreased from 1183, 1063.92, 848.51, to 783.24. Last quarter has 1 operating expenses gain 136mio which make 1Q 2015 look better than 4Q 2014. But overall, the main business gross profit is decreasing and this will be continue in 2015 since the coming orders were secured under fierce competition in 2013 to 2014.

This obviously is a pump and dump process. First stage is done, next stage is dump dump dump, TA and FA are both bearish to YZJ, what else shortseller want? Perfect timing to short to gain handsome profit.

pretarious      ( Date: 06-May-2015 10:45) Posted:



Early

Did you forget what happened with Ezion when it went below 1? There are few finnancial institutions who can issue structured warrants in Singapore. They have much to gain/loose if there quoted warrant structure does not trade (in general the impact on warrants is 5 to 20 times to underlying stock). There is a never associated here and for very good reason. You were trying your fear tactics as usual with little or zero base to your claim " below 1 dollar is long term TP" . 

Shortist dream case TP will be 1.2x, no less. 1.36 from your current quote sounds more rational. Keep your comment fact based. 


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Yangsogood
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06-May-2015 15:33     
 
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That is a linear projection with an inclination for it to go down.

There might be  other factors (of course with an inclination for it to up)

Say 1.  Things mentioned in  UOB kayhian and OCBC reports turn out fine

              2. Central government orders for defense build-up

            3. Qatari funds flushes in

            4. More yards  merging with  YZJ

            5. Collaboration with big players

              6. A drop of shorters...just saying

            7. New innovative fund for Shipyards....
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earlybird14
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06-May-2015 15:21     
 
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And BDI and container freight rate are at record low which reflect the over capacity, orders in 2015 will be very very less, competition will be ever fierce. 

earlybird14      ( Date: 06-May-2015 15:19) Posted:



A lot of warrant structure is paper in SGX. The fear is there, no created by me but the BBs. 

Why 1 dollar? simple, in 2013, YZJ net income was 3095Mil, price was below 1 dollar. 1Q 2015 net profit was RM706.88. If YZJ is lucky to maintain the same profit, 2015 will be about 2800Mil which is much less than 2013. But in fact, can YZJ maintain this? I think very tough, look at past 4 quarters, Gross profit is decreased from 1183, 1063.92, 848.51, to 783.24. Last quarter has 1 operating expenses gain 136mio which make 1Q 2015 look better than 4Q 2014. But overall, the main business gross profit is decreasing and this will be continue in 2015 since the coming orders were secured under fierce competition in 2013 to 2014.

This obviously is a pump and dump process. First stage is done, next stage is dump dump dump, TA and FA are both bearish to YZJ, what else shortseller want? Perfect timing to short to gain handsome profit.

pretarious      ( Date: 06-May-2015 10:45) Posted:



Early

Did you forget what happened with Ezion when it went below 1? There are few finnancial institutions who can issue structured warrants in Singapore. They have much to gain/loose if there quoted warrant structure does not trade (in general the impact on warrants is 5 to 20 times to underlying stock). There is a never associated here and for very good reason. You were trying your fear tactics as usual with little or zero base to your claim " below 1 dollar is long term TP" . 

Shortist dream case TP will be 1.2x, no less. 1.36 from your current quote sounds more rational. Keep your comment fact based. 


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earlybird14
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06-May-2015 15:19     
 
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A lot of warrant structure is paper in SGX. The fear is there, no created by me but the BBs. 

Why 1 dollar? simple, in 2013, YZJ net income was 3095Mil, price was below 1 dollar. 1Q 2015 net profit was RM706.88. If YZJ is lucky to maintain the same profit, 2015 will be about 2800Mil which is much less than 2013. But in fact, can YZJ maintain this? I think very tough, look at past 4 quarters, Gross profit is decreased from 1183, 1063.92, 848.51, to 783.24. Last quarter has 1 operating expenses gain 136mio which make 1Q 2015 look better than 4Q 2014. But overall, the main business gross profit is decreasing and this will be continue in 2015 since the coming orders were secured under fierce competition in 2013 to 2014.

This obviously is a pump and dump process. First stage is done, next stage is dump dump dump, TA and FA are both bearish to YZJ, what else shortseller want? Perfect timing to short to gain handsome profit.

pretarious      ( Date: 06-May-2015 10:45) Posted:



Early

Did you forget what happened with Ezion when it went below 1? There are few finnancial institutions who can issue structured warrants in Singapore. They have much to gain/loose if there quoted warrant structure does not trade (in general the impact on warrants is 5 to 20 times to underlying stock). There is a never associated here and for very good reason. You were trying your fear tactics as usual with little or zero base to your claim " below 1 dollar is long term TP" . 

Shortist dream case TP will be 1.2x, no less. 1.36 from your current quote sounds more rational. Keep your comment fact based. 

earlybird14      ( Date: 06-May-2015 09:52) Posted:



never say never. Warrant can become paper if the company not performing well. YZJ become falling knife, no more a rocket. After Ex-D, will become 1.36. 36cents to go, good profit if keep short.


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Yangsogood
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06-May-2015 14:32     
 
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Dear nice passengers,

Every morning, some shortened heads who sell a particular counter.

And hope/yell/pray for it to go down so to  make a quick one. Thanks.

 

The point?

 

Know why you are in and out.

 

Definitely not because  of harry thom  dick' s blank shots.

 

 
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Yangsogood
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06-May-2015 11:56     
 
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The other time when the collaboration news proposed by the central government  came up,

...grapevines grow all directions

It turns out to be a potential blessing to ease space cringe for construction,

....although nothing is finalized as yet.

Stay calm....and this also a company that believes in social welfare

While making profit they also do charity.....donating to build school and welfare homes

 

 
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