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Win2607 Member	17-May-2020 18:21        Win2607 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes Thanks, You are right, the covid19 shutdown was too sudden, no time to react. Suddenly lost of income, no time to get a temp job. Therefore thinking of trading. I saw too many ads online. Seems easy as just buy low sell high or sell high buy low, Market up can earn, go down also can earn. But the real case in not as what the portrayed. Now very very diffucult to get a job, now hopefully can pick up trading as the last the resort.  Now already stepped into the muddy water already, need to find way out.      SinglePore      ( Date: 17-May-2020 11:07) Posted: I empathize you on the money lost. You are not alone. Big boys like Warren Buffets are also suffering losses. We are living in an unprecedented time with so many weird things happening around us. While the Main Street is suffering with so many layoffs, the Wall Street keeps rallying even higher than pre-Covid. That has caught many into surprised. The US Fed has flooded the Wall Street, buying corporate bond ETFs and propped up stock prices. The US banks now are also flooding the global market in a similar way, propping stock prices that they want. We can' t predict with a normal logic anymore.  If we are in a tight financial situation, we should stay away from trading or gambling in the market. It is easy to get our emotion in bad shape.  Win2607      ( Date: 16-May-2020 22:45) Posted: Please advise which other counters which I can consider.I am noob, I already dumped all my money into bitcoins and SIA. I already burst my Bitcoin trading, now only left with this SIA short position.Hopefully the price will come down to 3.70 and I will exit and wait for next entry short price at 4.40
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Goldfinger Supreme	17-May-2020 18:19        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	So, in that case, may make sense to wait until closer to 28 May before deciding whether to subscribe for the Rights Shares and Rights MCBs.  Early birds do not have an advantage in this volatile market in that case. AhLiang      ( Date: 17-May-2020 18:00) Posted: SGX will fine you still because it will say you are responsible to recover back if you short. If not confident on that, dont short. It is not stupid. The MCB R price of 0.001 is a result of market forces actually. It actually went up to 0.19 on the first day. gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:40) Posted: Yes but how do you return something that do NOT exist as it lapses? Hence why I think the MCB R mechanism is key. T should address this. I wrote in to the press, letter got smacked down by higher ups. They want to invite me for a call with their advisors DBS? I think overall it is very grey and unfair what they are doing. They should pay fair value for the MCB Rights, if not all lapse, T cannot exericse a right they don' t have. that makes the most legal and logical sense
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Goldfinger Supreme	17-May-2020 18:16        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Should attend the next SIA AGM and ask why they are not retrenching pilots and cabin crew, or cutting their pay - given that air travel demand has collapsed.  What is good for the air crew is not good for the company. sengsk      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:46) Posted: I would suggest for time been, cost reduction is the main subject for SIA now. SIA should retrench 25% of the cabin crews and well request the other 15% cabin crews take unpaid leave foe one month, Take it or just leave Co. Request 20% of pilots take one month unpaid leave too as well either take it or leave the Co. As for during the next one month SIA would able to measure and gauge the situation for making a better move for the Company. Unless SIA  could able to make a good plan, Maybe investors would able to built confidence on their SIA management for future. Goldfinger      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:33) Posted: Frankly, it may not be smart for Temasek to scoop up even more SIA shares as well.  Looking at global airlines cutting workforce, and SIA still bravely hanging onto staff without retrenchments - looks like it will be bleeding for a long long time. Makes sense to cut and retrench pilots as well as cabin crew.  Silly of them not to do so.
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sengsk Elite	17-May-2020 18:03        sengsk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In fact SIA can' t do much now. They could only show their plan of management for building up investors confidence. Once they are able to deliver good plan, Price would able to stay stable and rest depend on how it goes. (Chart is our best friend. ) gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:57) Posted: they would but does it mean share price down? T backing so anythign possible? sengsk      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:53) Posted: That' s good where Shortists may no worrying to short it. SIA will drag and incur more financially loss
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AhLiang Elite	17-May-2020 18:00        AhLiang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	SGX will fine you still because it will say you are responsible to recover back if you short. If not confident on that, dont short. It is not stupid. The MCB R price of 0.001 is a result of market forces actually. It actually went up to 0.19 on the first day. gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:40) Posted: Yes but how do you return something that do NOT exist as it lapses? Hence why I think the MCB R mechanism is key. T should address this. I wrote in to the press, letter got smacked down by higher ups. They want to invite me for a call with their advisors DBS? I think overall it is very grey and unfair what they are doing. They should pay fair value for the MCB Rights, if not all lapse, T cannot exericse a right they don' t have. that makes the most legal and logical sense. AhLiang      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:37) Posted: Correct me if I am wrong. I think SGX can fine up to $1000.
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gregtan123 Supreme	17-May-2020 17:57        gregtan123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	they would but does it mean share price down? T backing so anythign possible? sengsk      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:53) Posted: That' s good where Shortists may no worrying to short it. SIA will drag and incur more financially loss. gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:47) Posted: election year bro. NONE of these are possibl
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sengsk Elite	17-May-2020 17:53        sengsk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That' s good where Shortists may no worrying to short it. SIA will drag and incur more financially loss. gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:47) Posted: election year bro. NONE of these are possible sengsk      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:46) Posted: I would suggest for time been, cost reduction is the main subject for SIA now. SIA should retrench 25% of the cabin crews and well request the other 15% cabin crews take unpaid leave foe one month, Take it or just leave Co. Request 20% of pilots take one month unpaid leave too as well either take it or leave the Co. As for during the next one month SIA would able to measure and gauge the situation for making a better move for the Company. Unless SIA  could able to make a good plan, Maybe investors would able to built confidence on their SIA management for future
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gregtan123 Supreme	17-May-2020 17:47        gregtan123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	election year bro. NONE of these are possible sengsk      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:46) Posted: I would suggest for time been, cost reduction is the main subject for SIA now. SIA should retrench 25% of the cabin crews and well request the other 15% cabin crews take unpaid leave foe one month, Take it or just leave Co. Request 20% of pilots take one month unpaid leave too as well either take it or leave the Co. As for during the next one month SIA would able to measure and gauge the situation for making a better move for the Company. Unless SIA  could able to make a good plan, Maybe investors would able to built confidence on their SIA management for future. Goldfinger      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:33) Posted: Frankly, it may not be smart for Temasek to scoop up even more SIA shares as well.  Looking at global airlines cutting workforce, and SIA still bravely hanging onto staff without retrenchments - looks like it will be bleeding for a long long time. Makes sense to cut and retrench pilots as well as cabin crew.  Silly of them not to do so.
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sengsk Elite	17-May-2020 17:46        sengsk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I would suggest for time been, cost reduction is the main subject for SIA now. SIA should retrench 25% of the cabin crews and well request the other 15% cabin crews take unpaid leave foe one month, Take it or just leave Co. Request 20% of pilots take one month unpaid leave too as well either take it or leave the Co. As for during the next one month SIA would able to measure and gauge the situation for making a better move for the Company. Unless SIA  could able to make a good plan, Maybe investors would able to built confidence on their SIA management for future. Goldfinger      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:33) Posted: Frankly, it may not be smart for Temasek to scoop up even more SIA shares as well.  Looking at global airlines cutting workforce, and SIA still bravely hanging onto staff without retrenchments - looks like it will be bleeding for a long long time. Makes sense to cut and retrench pilots as well as cabin crew.  Silly of them not to do so. gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:28) Posted: That' s a smart move. Almost all people i know will let the MCB R lapse. But I think the fair question to ask is should T pay u 0.001 or 0.002 or any money to buy your Right to Subscribe the MCB? It seems like they are trying to take advantage of shareholders here. Note key word: seems.
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Justice888 Supreme	17-May-2020 17:44        Justice888 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Actually we are already late in the party . Shld have shorted when the price is between $4.40 to $5. Now short . If suddenly short covering . Can lose big . stanleytay      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:41) Posted: If one really want to short, wait for the payment of the rights to be completed then decide. I think SIA currently has touched a good base at 3.7. It could be a volatile session when the week starts. When the whole rights exercise is over, then market will start looking at the real economic impact on SIA. Spore is a small country compared to US, Buffet can sell many airlines stocks, but in spore context, the govt see bailing out SIA as something of a national interest. Usually big shortists move in and expect to see quick results, I think they have already succeeded to some extent. It will be unwise to go against Temasek who has already said it will commit a big amount of money to save SIA. sengsk      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:28) Posted: Once hit 3.65 to 3.70 I believe most shortists will be confidence to Short it. Next support 3.15 to 3.2
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gregtan123 Supreme	17-May-2020 17:44        gregtan123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	T or the G should do this IMO, this will make all Uncle and Aunties Boomers (my auntie has 8,000 shares SQ for 8 years liao never monitor). Post 21 May 2020, they pay any holder of the MCB R that they do not want to exercise a nominal fee say 0.0025 or 0.003. This is Peanuts to T/G but it is some money for them. Say 8k shares, 23,600 MCB R instead of lapse become zero, they get 23,600 x 0.0025 = 59 SGD for these old folks? Now CB Pandemic, all of them no income. Election year, do it swee swee, they all happy?
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stanleytay Master	17-May-2020 17:41        stanleytay About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If one really want to short, wait for the payment of the rights to be completed then decide. I think SIA currently has touched a good base at 3.7. It could be a volatile session when the week starts. When the whole rights exercise is over, then market will start looking at the real economic impact on SIA. Spore is a small country compared to US, Buffet can sell many airlines stocks, but in spore context, the govt see bailing out SIA as something of a national interest. Usually big shortists move in and expect to see quick results, I think they have already succeeded to some extent. It will be unwise to go against Temasek who has already said it will commit a big amount of money to save SIA. sengsk      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:28) Posted: Once hit 3.65 to 3.70 I believe most shortists will be confidence to Short it. Next support 3.15 to 3.20 stanleytay      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:20) Posted: I rem Muddy Waters shorted Olam many years ago.. and in the end it failed to bring Olam down. In their statement, they wrote something like if not for govt intervention in Temasek, Olam would have gone down like Noble. Shorting SIA requires precision and timing... its not that SIA will do well now, when the big boys move in, the shorts will be taken out for sure
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AhLiang Elite	17-May-2020 17:41        AhLiang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No retrenchment because it is an Ah Kong company. Even for the 2000 fresh graduates to be recruited by DBS, I heard MAS will pay 90% of their salary for one year (heard from the street lol) Goldfinger      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:33) Posted: Frankly, it may not be smart for Temasek to scoop up even more SIA shares as well.  Looking at global airlines cutting workforce, and SIA still bravely hanging onto staff without retrenchments - looks like it will be bleeding for a long long time. Makes sense to cut and retrench pilots as well as cabin crew.  Silly of them not to do so. gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:28) Posted: That' s a smart move. Almost all people i know will let the MCB R lapse. But I think the fair question to ask is should T pay u 0.001 or 0.002 or any money to buy your Right to Subscribe the MCB? It seems like they are trying to take advantage of shareholders here. Note key word: seems.
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gregtan123 Supreme	17-May-2020 17:40        gregtan123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes but how do you return something that do NOT exist as it lapses? Hence why I think the MCB R mechanism is key. T should address this. I wrote in to the press, letter got smacked down by higher ups. They want to invite me for a call with their advisors DBS? I think overall it is very grey and unfair what they are doing. They should pay fair value for the MCB Rights, if not all lapse, T cannot exericse a right they don' t have. that makes the most legal and logical sense. AhLiang      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:37) Posted: Correct me if I am wrong. I think SGX can fine up to $1000. gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 16:31) Posted: Can someone answer the Key 3rd Question? What if Temasek is selling now and then get back all for free?? Also what if we short 10 million shares, do we even need to deliver?
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AhLiang Elite	17-May-2020 17:37        AhLiang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Correct me if I am wrong. I think SGX can fine up to $1000. gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 16:31) Posted: Can someone answer the Key 3rd Question? What if Temasek is selling now and then get back all for free?? Also what if we short 10 million shares, do we even need to deliver?
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gregtan123 Supreme	17-May-2020 17:36        gregtan123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	T LJ reply will be We are Generational Investor hahaha Goldfinger      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:33) Posted: Frankly, it may not be smart for Temasek to scoop up even more SIA shares as well.  Looking at global airlines cutting workforce, and SIA still bravely hanging onto staff without retrenchments - looks like it will be bleeding for a long long time. Makes sense to cut and retrench pilots as well as cabin crew.  Silly of them not to do so. gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:28) Posted: That' s a smart move. Almost all people i know will let the MCB R lapse. But I think the fair question to ask is should T pay u 0.001 or 0.002 or any money to buy your Right to Subscribe the MCB? It seems like they are trying to take advantage of shareholders here. Note key word: seems.
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Goldfinger Supreme	17-May-2020 17:33        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Frankly, it may not be smart for Temasek to scoop up even more SIA shares as well.  Looking at global airlines cutting workforce, and SIA still bravely hanging onto staff without retrenchments - looks like it will be bleeding for a long long time. Makes sense to cut and retrench pilots as well as cabin crew.  Silly of them not to do so. gregtan123      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:28) Posted: That' s a smart move. Almost all people i know will let the MCB R lapse. But I think the fair question to ask is should T pay u 0.001 or 0.002 or any money to buy your Right to Subscribe the MCB? It seems like they are trying to take advantage of shareholders here. Note key word: seems.  Goldfinger      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:24) Posted: Okay thanks - I am now inclined to let the SIA MCB Rights lapse. The risk of it trading below SGD1 is not small in my view, and actually quite likely. Meaning, it could be cheaper to buy this on the open market after it begins trading
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CheeryVGoh Supreme	17-May-2020 17:33        CheeryVGoh About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	4QFY3/20 and FY3/20 in the red due to fuel hedging MTM losses SIA reported a core net loss of S$699m for 4QFY20 and a full-year core net loss of S$127m. SIA typically accounts for unrealised MTM hedging gains and losses on its fuel derivatives on its balance sheet and only recognises realised hedging gains/losses on its P& L. However, in 4QFY20, SIA charged S$710m in unrealised MTM fuel hedging losses from the FY21F hedge book into its P& L, representing the excess of the barrels hedged compared to the expected consumption. If we add this back to derive the &lsquo actual&rsquo operating performance, SIA would have been approximately breakeven in 4QFY20 and still profitable for FY20, in part due to the aggressive cost cuts. Salary costs, for instance, fell 65% qoq, or S$500m, to just S$274m in 4QFY20 due to a combination of pay cuts, reduced flying allowances and voluntary/involuntary no-pay leave. Still, this does not hide the tough conditions facing the group as the combined passenger business saw RPK demand contract 23% yoy and yields fall 6.4% yoy in 4QFY20, with MI and TR in the red and SQ merely breakeven (after adding back the unrealised MTM losses). The stronger cargo yields certainly helped SQ, although this was mostly offset by lower cargo volumes. Upgrade to Add FY21F core net loss estimate reduced We have reduced our FY21F core net loss estimate from S$957m to S$720m as the MTM fuel hedging loss of S$710m charged into the FY20 P& L means that an equivalent value will no longer be charged into the FY21F P& L unless, of course, the Brent forward curve falls further from the end-Mar 2020 level. However, if the OPEC+ oil production cuts succeed in increasing oil prices, SIA will benefit from MTM fuel hedging gains on the over-hedged portion, which will be booked in the FY21F P& L. Meanwhile, SIA will remain fully hedged on its now-reduced FY21F fuel requirements and is therefore not expected to suffer any economic loss on this effective portion of the hedge even if spot oil prices increase. In other words, if oil prices increase, MTM fuel hedging gains may help SIA improve its FY21F P& L performance, which may surprise the market positively. There are many uncertainties, however, and we now assume that SIA&rsquo s combined passenger airline business will see a 57% yoy RPK decline in FY21F vs. our previous -43% assumption. Yield decline assumptions also remain highly judgmental at this point (see Figure 5) but, with the share price trading at 0.69x historical P/BV, below even the P/BV of 0.74x that is 2 s.d. below the mean, a lot of negative news appears to be priced in. Investors with a high risk tolerance and a one-year investing horizon can accumulate SIA for the eventual relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions and a share price relief rally.
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CheeryVGoh Supreme	17-May-2020 17:29        CheeryVGoh About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	CGM CIMB updated on 15th May 2020 : Upgrade from Hold to Add as the deeply-discounted share price may recover once Covid-19 outbreak eases target price raised to S$4.60 (0.84x P/BV). CheeryVGoh      ( Date: 17-May-2020 16:57) Posted: CGM CIMB on  6th May 2020 : Post-rights target price of S$4.45 Calculation of ex-rights target price Our financial forecasts for FY21F (year ending March 2021) already incorporate the post-rights and post-MCB issuance position of up to S$8.8bn. We have not yet assumed that SIA will issue the additional MCBs of S$6.2bn. Our target price is based on a slightly lower P/BV multiple of 0.84x, from 0.86x previously, which is still pegged to an unchanged 1 standard deviation (s.d.) below the average since 2011. Since 2011, SIA&rsquo s P/BV multiples have de-rated due to competition issues and SIA continues to trade within these P/BV bands. We have based our target on 1 s.d. below the mean because of the tough conditions which we believe SIA will continue to find itself in over the next 12 months. We think it is unfair to base our target on 2 s.d. below the mean because we have already incorporated the Covid-19 losses into our FY21F P& L forecasts as well as the dilutive impact of the rights issue into our BVPS forecast. The main valuation issue that we have to grapple with is how to treat the Mandatory Convertible Bonds (MCB). According to SIA, the MCBs will be treated as equity on its balance sheet. This is because SIA has an option, but not the obligation, to redeem the MCBs. If SIA chooses not to redeem the MCBs, they will automatically be converted into new ordinary shares on their 10th anniversary of issue, which is also the maturity date. On the basis that the MCBs are treated as wholly equity, we calculate SIA&rsquo s post-rights BVPS to be S$5.89 at the end of FY21F (as at 31 March 2021F) see Figure 4 below. Conversely, SIA may want to redeem the MCBs fully, if possible, and it has a long time frame of 10 years to do so. Our belief is that if industry conditions and SIA&rsquo s balance sheet improve sufficiently during this time frame, it will do its best to redeem the MCBs in order to avoid further dilution for shareholders. As such, the MCBs can be viewed as wholly debt and not as equity. Under this assumption, we forecast the post-rights BVPS of SIA to be S$4.71. In this report, we have decided to take the middle route, i.e. to treat the MCBs as half equity and half debt. On this basis, we forecast the post-rights BVPS of SIA to be S$5.30. Against the post-rights BVPS of S$5.30, we apply our target P/BV multiple of 0.84x to arrive at our post-rights target price of S$4.45. We highlight that our book value forecasts have been reduced by the estimated mark-to-market losses on SIA&rsquo s fuel hedges, based on the current oil price forward curve.
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sengsk Elite	17-May-2020 17:28        sengsk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Once hit 3.65 to 3.70 I believe most shortists will be confidence to Short it. Next support 3.15 to 3.20 stanleytay      ( Date: 17-May-2020 17:20) Posted: I rem Muddy Waters shorted Olam many years ago.. and in the end it failed to bring Olam down. In their statement, they wrote something like if not for govt intervention in Temasek, Olam would have gone down like Noble. Shorting SIA requires precision and timing... its not that SIA will do well now, when the big boys move in, the shorts will be taken out for sure. SinglePore      ( Date: 17-May-2020 15:42) Posted: Singapore Airlines Is Now Most Shorted Stock in City-State https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-15/singapore-air-most-shorted-stock-in-city-state-as-profit-falls The short-covering will be very fierce during relieve rally, as the stock has reached the extreme short position. SG gov is in talks with several countries to reopen air travel. Every country is now so eager to work towards reopening. Just forget stupid WHO direction to do lockdown for a long time.    Normally that event will easily spark only a small relieve rally, but the rally will be exacerbated with the short-covering. Just beware of which cycle we are in now to determine your trading strategy, in case you are a short-term trader.
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