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sheerluck Supreme	23-Mar-2015 18:05        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	A strong rebound today!
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jamesng Master	22-Mar-2015 00:01        jamesng About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No need to think of Vard now since Vard is in deep water sector. Only when oil recover, then think about it. And if it settles the issue in Brazil yard and tax issue....seems quite a few problem for Vard
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halleluyah Supreme	21-Mar-2015 17:08        halleluyah About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Then just play swing....fifo n dun long yet.... sheerluck      ( Date: 21-Mar-2015 10:29) Posted: VARD staged a remarkable recovery from Thursday sell-down.   But given that there are higher chances of bad news than good news coming, I will wait.   Also analysts will ask you to hold but when VARD releases bad results, they will downgrade it and lower TP and price would react so fast so furious that it will be too late because houses would have already acted.   Already sabot retailers twice liao.
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sheerluck Supreme	21-Mar-2015 16:12        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Love to give VARD a vote of confidence but they really sucks at controlling cost overrun in their Brazilian yards.   Depressing oil price is adding salt to wound.   Anyway, let Q1 results doing the walking.
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jakob.s Member	21-Mar-2015 14:12        jakob.s About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	TA is useful for picking out a low price to enter or a high price to sell. However, without fundamental analysis, you' re just trading not investing. Bad news and good news, technically speaking, is relative to the market expectation. If the market expect a company to lose $100m, but it loses $50m instead, that' s good news. If you say there are higher chances of bad news than good news coming, then you either have some insider information, or you can read the future. If so, then you should definitely take out short positions. Anyway, don' t you know who the analysts work for.. Read their analysis, but always rely on your own judgement.
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tohchinhwee Senior	21-Mar-2015 12:42        tohchinhwee About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	From The Edge Prices have broken bleow a support that coincides with the January low of 48.5cents, indicating a target of 30cents.  Volume expanded on the breakdown, indicating the onset of selling pressure.  The 50 and 100day moving averages are likely to draw apart in a negative signal, as quarterly  momentum is staging a sharp retreat from its equilibrium line.  Resistance has been established at 48.5cents.
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sheerluck Supreme	21-Mar-2015 10:29        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	VARD staged a remarkable recovery from Thursday sell-down.   But given that there are higher chances of bad news than good news coming, I will wait.   Also analysts will ask you to hold but when VARD releases bad results, they will downgrade it and lower TP and price would react so fast so furious that it will be too late because houses would have already acted.   Already sabot retailers twice liao.
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jakob.s Member	21-Mar-2015 04:06        jakob.s About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don' t panic. Shortists like these kind of stocks due to bad market outlook and low market float. Just remember not to margin finance and you will be fine. The terminated contracts represented 3% of order book. Most other customers are established long-term players. I forecast oil price to recover to 60-70 range by next year. By Then E& P capex should increase (oil majors don' t cancel projects, they only delay). Hopefully, by then, the less competitive shipyards have been consolidated. If you' re well-diversified enough and looking at 5-10 year horizon., can consider to accumulate some.. valuations are very attractive now. limited downside, with a lot of upside potential. i' ve picked up 100 lots at 0.42. DYODD. I suspect there will be institutional interest soon.
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stockmax Senior	19-Mar-2015 21:55        stockmax About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This 1 looks like will move downwards to 20 cents soon... Avoid at all cost!!
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samurai_jack Member	19-Mar-2015 16:31        samurai_jack About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I bought it where the price was around 1.17 and right before that bomb on loss last quarter 2014. This is my spare cash and I can long for a while but looking at where things are moving I am worried.....
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tchoonw Master	19-Mar-2015 13:22        tchoonw About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	when did you buy at $1? i would think vard will take a long time...can see 60c is very good liao! samurai_jack      ( Date: 19-Mar-2015 12:25) Posted: I have 100K Vard @ 1.00 Pls share views on what is the worst scenario if I long? Can VARD go bankrupt?
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samurai_jack Member	19-Mar-2015 13:06        samurai_jack About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	oh dear, seems like it is going to get worst than better. I wonder what will be the offer price if F decides to take VARD private? 0.50?
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sheerluck Supreme	19-Mar-2015 12:50        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro, first I hope VARD is not a big portion of your portfolio.   Second I hope you have been tracking their business performace and financial. My view: chances of VARD going bankrupt is pretty low. For VARD to turnaround, it needs at least the followings: A) sharp increase in oil demand to spur oil production. B) cost overrun control in Brazilian yards. There is nothing much VARD can do on (A).   They have control on (B) but not been very good at it.   If VARD can find buyers for those two vessels, it should help to slow down the price fall. Fincantieri needs alot less money to take VARD private now.   The possibility is there. That' s quite a bit of monies you have put into VARD so evaluate your options carefully. Good luck! samurai_jack      ( Date: 19-Mar-2015 12:25) Posted: I have 100K Vard @ 1.00 Pls share views on what is the worst scenario if I long? Can VARD go bankrupt?
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tobias_i_d Senior	19-Mar-2015 12:33        tobias_i_d About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Yells: "Good technicians don't eat heads and tails."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	My advice is: pay attention to the price action... add position whenever you SEE the price is starting to go up. This way, you are doing Dollar Cost Averaging.  But on the downside is, according to my judgment, it will take YEARS before we can see significant price breakout. As I mentioned earlier, Vard has been in downward trend since 2012.... thats been 3 years... If you have patience, you' re gonna need more...  But then, anything can happen in stock market, my judgment can be wrong tho...  samurai_jack      ( Date: 19-Mar-2015 12:25) Posted: I have 100K Vard @ 1.00 Pls share views on what is the worst scenario if I long? Can VARD go bankrupt?
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samurai_jack Member	19-Mar-2015 12:25        samurai_jack About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I have 100K Vard @ 1.00 Pls share views on what is the worst scenario if I long? Can VARD go bankrupt?
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sheerluck Supreme	19-Mar-2015 10:47        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	My views on  Fincantieri taking VARD private about a year ago.   VARD is trading at 35% discount to book. If the price depress further Fincantieri should seriously look into taking it private. sheerluck      ( Date: 07-May-2014 11:18) Posted: Fincantieri will want VARD to declare more dvidend because  Fincantieri will still be 51% owned by the Italian govt and they need $$$ to reduce their trillion  national debt.   Taking VARD private is not impossible but will need to throw out 300-370mil euros from $1-$1.22 to eat up the remaining shares.   Not sure if they are willing to fork out the cash upfront given the the main objective is to  reduce debt. Another possibility.   When VARD has mostly recovered from its Brazilian problem, with its order book and prospect, sell it to private investment.   This is pretty much like what Swiber did with Kreuz.   Sell asset to raise cash to reduce debt (oh not sure if Swiber did reduce debt). Possible? DYDD.    MtFaber      ( Date: 07-May-2014 10:59) Posted: Vard may become a milking cow for Fincantieri if it is listed just like STX OSV for STX Group. They may declare more dividends since Fincan is the majority shareholder!
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sheerluck Supreme	19-Mar-2015 10:42        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	While I am very concern that VARD is going to hand in a big red report card for coming Q1, if the price got depress low enough, it might be a good target for the Italians to take it private as what KE analyst said although recommending a hold with TP 58cts is really BS.   VARD keep repeating history and KE keep repeating their tactics. taxiuncle      ( Date: 19-Mar-2015 10:07) Posted: Luckily STX sold this away to the Italian.......perhaps next time they buy it cheaper back......All time low again
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taxiuncle Veteran	19-Mar-2015 10:07        taxiuncle About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Luckily STX sold this away to the Italian.......perhaps next time they buy it cheaper back......All time low again
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sheerluck Supreme	19-Mar-2015 09:58        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Toh liao.   If 39cts breaks, hell loose....
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sheerluck Supreme	18-Mar-2015 11:40        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No pun intended. COGS alone is a high 78% of revenue due to challenging Brazilian Yards which is forever on-going and wages are increasing.   Now with order cancellations and analyst not ruling out more cancellation to come.   Also in theory they cannot recognise the revenue for those two vessels until they sold them even though they said they are confident they can sell them as risk has not been passed to the client.   They may also need to writeback some revenue from last year. Can' t see any positive factors.   Maybe I missed out something. Qanghoo      ( Date: 18-Mar-2015 11:17) Posted: Seems some pun in ur post hah? sheerluck      ( Date: 18-Mar-2015 11:15) Posted: Based on my estimates, VARD needs a revenue of NOK15.5bil to breakeven for FY2015.   Its better years only see about NOK13bil. In short VARD is heading into a ice-berg!!!!!!!!   Hope its Ice-classed vessels are prepared for it. DYDD.
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