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Latest Forum Topics / YZJ Fin Hldg    Last:0.22    -0.005  Post Reply
YZJFH - potentially rewarding

sgng123
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26-Mar-2025 09:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Going strong today at opening, see later if momentum maintain.
Shorting accumulated over 2 years loh on borrowed stocks.
Now the shorting trade unwinding.
Don sell and wait for suckers to pay the full price.
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ayahiro
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26-Mar-2025 08:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Huh? Which part shows heavily shorted?

Last week report of weekly short holding is not even 1%, yesterday' s 42M volume, only 1.7M is short volume.
That' s not even considered heavy.... 

sgng123      ( Date: 26-Mar-2025 07:10) Posted:

Just chill and enjoy the ride.
1q still got couple of days before it close.
See if more shortist get forced to cover.
remember yzjfh is heavily  shorted.
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sgng123
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26-Mar-2025 07:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Just chill and enjoy the ride.
1q still got couple of days before it close.
See if more shortist get forced to cover.
remember yzjfh is heavily  shorted.
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HVRRVH
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26-Mar-2025 04:59     
 
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volvo125      ( Date: 26-Mar-2025 03:00) Posted:

0.86 is probably the near term immediate mega hard resistance wall waiting in line if YFH is " allowed" to cross the next psychological barrier at 0.80 ( which is just 6 bids away), between now to AGM and the last day cum dividend. 

I believe the current price at ~0.66x or higher going foward will correct ( correction could likely be significant due to the previous 2 month+ of very persistent steep rise ) beyond ex dividend pending the 1H25 release by early~mid Aug, however, If RenYL were to throw out any more signals on spin off again (eg announcement ) any time from now to AGM or to last day cum dividend or before 1H25 update, YFH will crush the 0.86 wall in no time.

Back in early 2022 till the point of YSB/YFH spin off by 21 Apr 2022, I vaguely remember YSB price hit as high as ~1.78 and closed once highest at 1.76 against its NAV 1.96, which was 90% of its NAV then. YSB last day cum spin off closed at 1.54, which was ~79% of its NAV.

Taking vaguely and crudely, the first YSB/YFH spin off as reference, if YFH1/YFH2 spin off is again signaled, we might be looking forward to YFH hitting 1.05 ( 90% of its NAV) in the near term months ahead and probably retrace back to ~0.94 or higher at the point of spin off. 

I believe the spin off narrative is quietly at play in the background. YFH price has moved too hastily and too soon towards the 4.5% dividend yield target 0.77, very much well before the AGM and last day cum dividend.

Why big boys are accummulating so loudly at such a hasty pace ? Becasue the price now is likely still very undervalued if the spin off narrative is indeed incubating. From 0.77 to 0.94 to 1.05, there is still a very steep final 36% upside to 1.05, with multiple profiting opportunities to distribute and reload again and again along the path till 1.05 and then back to the likely final retracement price probably at ~0.94.

If the US market does get into a period of persistent crashes in the weeks ahead, the seemingly ongoing spin off accumulation trajectory of YFH could be temporarily derailed but as long as the spin off narrative is still " believed" to be in force, we would still see YFH heading towards the ~0.94 to ~1.05 or even beyond in the near term.

If the spin off narrative is indeed still incubating and in force, fear mongering will defnitely set in repeatedly when prices enter into the 0.80 and 0.90+ so as to absorb all the liquidity by weeding off all the nervous weak hands and stale bulls because YFH prices repeatedly intrude into the no man' s land of ATHs ( all time highs ). Long holders ought to have a very strong heart and extreme patience to counter these fear mongering attacks.

If the spin off narrative is indeed still in force, I do not think RenYL will take too long to make it happen. Why ? With US now escalating the shipping and maritime aggressions towards China, RenYL will want to split YFH into, say YFH1 (DI, Pte Credit, P& PE, FundMgt) and YFH2 (MF, Maritime Assets and Svc) quickly to tackle the very real impending geo political changes affecting the maritime domain. While both YFH1 and YFH2 are listed SG coy, YFH1 will still have capital deployed in both China (DI, P& PE) and SG (Pte Credit, P& PE, FundMgt), but YFH2 capital funding the Maritime Funds and maritime business and svc are all based out of SG and purely SG capital. Being a pure SG listed coy, YFH1 partners with both Chinese and Angmoh alliances to provide maritime svc in different geograpical regions. For the US market, YFH1 as a pure SG listed coy is free to work with Angmoh alliances to acquire non Chinese built vessels to overcome the punishing port charges. 

This is just my reading of YFH and my speculation based on the ongoing price volume actions. I could really be wrong or deluded but I will continue to stake my money at where my mouth is. I am sharing my thoughts to all the Long holders here as I myself am a deep value seeking Long holders looking for longer term outsized gains. I hope all the Long holders here in SJ could reap in as much gains as I already have in YFH. 

One more thing, by the way, let' s not be too carried away with the TP $1.80~2.30 from this Next Insight article :-  https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/948-2025/16075-spin-off-success-story-stock-surges-77-to-record-fund-manager-sees-more-value. The writer assumes a 15% ROE to give a EPS of 0.18 in the 1st TP and a 50% borrowing at NTA in the 2nd TP. YFH ROE in FY24 was just 7.2% and I really do not see YFH achieving an ROE even > 10% anytime soon. As at end FY24, YFH has $1.812B in Cash Mgt with $506m already in Maritime assets. Maritime Fund (MF) has a declared target of Usd600m and the new Maritime Svc (MS) has a target of Usd300m (circular dated 28 May 2024). Assuming MS is not part of MF so the total capital to be deployed will be Usd900m or Sgd1.2B. With all the maritime assets now valuing at $506m, YFH would still have $700m yet to deploy to MF and MS. I believe YFH is not short of cash, in fact, YFH has a lot of cash but has problems finding attractive projects to quickly deploy the cash. So why would YFH go on a borrowing spree of 50% of its NTA or ~$2.1B at an assumed 6% interest to increase its cash holding if the coy is already holding on so much idle cash now, and some more expecting a 60% retained profit ploughing back to the NTA pool YOY ? I do not know who is the NI writer but I certainly think his assessment on YFH fundamental is too shallow.

For those who are at the Short end, ignore this post if you think I' m talking nonsense.
 

volvo125      ( Date: 21-Mar-2025 11:45) Posted:

The road to 0.77 is now probably taking place !

With market now interpreting Jerome P latest dots plot that Fed rates are gunning towards at least 2 cuts to 4.0% by end 2025, yield expectations across the board will fall accordingly, such as ... new SG T bills will fall below 2.0%, new SG fixed deposits will go under $1.5%. The new lower yield expectation on YFH with its NPL risk premium lifted could now theoretically hit 0.86, assuming RenYL could at least maintain or better a DPS 0.0345 for FY25, a conviction that he had expressed during the recent Lim& Tan webinar. 
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volvo125
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26-Mar-2025 03:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		0.86 is probably the near term immediate mega hard resistance wall waiting in line if YFH is " allowed" to cross the next psychological barrier at 0.80 ( which is just 6 bids away), between now to AGM and the last day cum dividend. 

I believe the current price at ~0.66x or higher going foward will correct ( correction could likely be significant due to the previous 2 month+ of very persistent steep rise ) beyond ex dividend pending the 1H25 release by early~mid Aug, however, If RenYL were to throw out any more signals on spin off again (eg announcement ) any time from now to AGM or to last day cum dividend or before 1H25 update, YFH will crush the 0.86 wall in no time.

Back in early 2022 till the point of YSB/YFH spin off by 21 Apr 2022, I vaguely remember YSB price hit as high as ~1.78 and closed once highest at 1.76 against its NAV 1.96, which was 90% of its NAV then. YSB last day cum spin off closed at 1.54, which was ~79% of its NAV.

Taking vaguely and crudely, the first YSB/YFH spin off as reference, if YFH1/YFH2 spin off is again signaled, we might be looking forward to YFH hitting 1.05 ( 90% of its NAV) in the near term months ahead and probably retrace back to ~0.94 or higher at the point of spin off. 

I believe the spin off narrative is quietly at play in the background. YFH price has moved too hastily and too soon towards the 4.5% dividend yield target 0.77, very much well before the AGM and last day cum dividend.

Why big boys are accummulating so loudly at such a hasty pace ? Becasue the price now is likely still very undervalued if the spin off narrative is indeed incubating. From 0.77 to 0.94 to 1.05, there is still a very steep final 36% upside to 1.05, with multiple profiting opportunities to distribute and reload again and again along the path till 1.05 and then back to the likely final retracement price probably at ~0.94.

If the US market does get into a period of persistent crashes in the weeks ahead, the seemingly ongoing spin off accumulation trajectory of YFH could be temporarily derailed but as long as the spin off narrative is still " believed" to be in force, we would still see YFH heading towards the ~0.94 to ~1.05 or even beyond in the near term.

If the spin off narrative is indeed still incubating and in force, fear mongering will defnitely set in repeatedly when prices enter into the 0.80 and 0.90+ so as to absorb all the liquidity by weeding off all the nervous weak hands and stale bulls because YFH prices repeatedly intrude into the no man' s land of ATHs ( all time highs ). Long holders ought to have a very strong heart and extreme patience to counter these fear mongering attacks.

If the spin off narrative is indeed still in force, I do not think RenYL will take too long to make it happen. Why ? With US now escalating the shipping and maritime aggressions towards China, RenYL will want to split YFH into, say YFH1 (DI, Pte Credit, P& PE, FundMgt) and YFH2 (MF, Maritime Assets and Svc) quickly to tackle the very real impending geo political changes affecting the maritime domain. While both YFH1 and YFH2 are listed SG coy, YFH1 will still have capital deployed in both China (DI, P& PE) and SG (Pte Credit, P& PE, FundMgt), but YFH2 capital funding the Maritime Funds and maritime business and svc are all based out of SG and purely SG capital. Being a pure SG listed coy, YFH1 partners with both Chinese and Angmoh alliances to provide maritime svc in different geograpical regions. For the US market, YFH1 as a pure SG listed coy is free to work with Angmoh alliances to acquire non Chinese built vessels to overcome the punishing port charges. 

This is just my reading of YFH and my speculation based on the ongoing price volume actions. I could really be wrong or deluded but I will continue to stake my money at where my mouth is. I am sharing my thoughts to all the Long holders here as I myself am a deep value seeking Long holders looking for longer term outsized gains. I hope all the Long holders here in SJ could reap in as much gains as I already have in YFH. 

One more thing, by the way, let' s not be too carried away with the TP $1.80~2.30 from this Next Insight article :-  https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/948-2025/16075-spin-off-success-story-stock-surges-77-to-record-fund-manager-sees-more-value. The writer assumes a 15% ROE to give a EPS of 0.18 in the 1st TP and a 50% borrowing at NTA in the 2nd TP. YFH ROE in FY24 was just 7.2% and I really do not see YFH achieving an ROE even > 10% anytime soon. As at end FY24, YFH has $1.812B in Cash Mgt with $506m already in Maritime assets. Maritime Fund (MF) has a declared target of Usd600m and the new Maritime Svc (MS) has a target of Usd300m (circular dated 28 May 2024). Assuming MS is not part of MF so the total capital to be deployed will be Usd900m or Sgd1.2B. With all the maritime assets now valuing at $506m, YFH would still have $700m yet to deploy to MF and MS. I believe YFH is not short of cash, in fact, YFH has a lot of cash but has problems finding attractive projects to quickly deploy the cash. So why would YFH go on a borrowing spree of 50% of its NTA or ~$2.1B at an assumed 6% interest to increase its cash holding if the coy is already holding on so much idle cash now, and some more expecting a 60% retained profit ploughing back to the NTA pool YOY ? I do not know who is the NI writer but I certainly think his assessment on YFH fundamental is too shallow.

For those who are at the Short end, ignore this post if you think I' m talking nonsense.
 

volvo125      ( Date: 21-Mar-2025 11:45) Posted:

The road to 0.77 is now probably taking place !

With market now interpreting Jerome P latest dots plot that Fed rates are gunning towards at least 2 cuts to 4.0% by end 2025, yield expectations across the board will fall accordingly, such as ... new SG T bills will fall below 2.0%, new SG fixed deposits will go under $1.5%. The new lower yield expectation on YFH with its NPL risk premium lifted could now theoretically hit 0.86, assuming RenYL could at least maintain or better a DPS 0.0345 for FY25, a conviction that he had expressed during the recent Lim& Tan webinar. 

volvo125      ( Date: 25-Feb-2025 02:02) Posted:

Ha ha ... Thank you very much Uncle Ren for the big DPS payout surprise. My annual dividend crosses well beyond $200k for the first time.
 
If anyone here still think the yield expectation demanded on YFH by Mr Market is still at 6.1% (It was 6.6% in FY23), I believe ... no more liao. YFH has just initiated a small net $15m write back for FY24, signaling the uncertain NPL provision problem is now already behind the coy. This implies that the ~20% risk premium once imposed on YFH in FY23 will be lifted. Together with the 1% Fed rate reduction already in place, YFH will be re-rated to reflect these changing dynamics.
 
@Salim88 has presented a Cup& Handle chart and projected a TP of 0.77 on 31Jan2025. This was his workings :-
 
= Cash & Yield enhancement products + 1/2 the value of all other investments - Total Liabilities  = $0.49 + 0.5 ( $0.68) - $0.06  = $0.77
 
I love @Salim88 C& H chart and while I certainly do not think YFH will see 0.77 any time soon then in late Jan, I am now vaguely seeing YFH moving towards 0.77 in the horizon. The Fed rate reduction (1%) and the lifting of risk premium (1.1% seen imposed on FY23 on top of the Fed rate then, or an equivalent risk premium at ~20% of the Fed rate) due to the clearance of NPL provision uncertainty will likely now benchmarked YFH normally back to around the prevailing Fed rate of 4.5%. This works out to be (0.0345 / 0.045) = 0.766 or 0.77 nearest.
 
So Yes, my near term TP for YFH is now pointing towards 0.77, similar to what Salim88 has earlier projected on 31Jan2025, though both of us have somehow come to the same TP using different means of underlying assumptions.   
 
 


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sgng123
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25-Mar-2025 18:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Once institutional fund start the bbq, the sky is the limit till the party end.
O did I mention the party just start..
More fun to come, 1.80-2.30 not dream if bb push through.
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MrBear12
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25-Mar-2025 17:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Congrats to all who stayed vested despite the difficult times.
Bear salutes you!
Your reward is here and is getting greater

Trade with great rewards

pkli899      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 16:51) Posted:

LOL.....really touch 78c.

pkli899      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 16:34) Posted:

77c already.
78c possible today?
If yes, mean same like the other day, went up by 4.5c in one session!
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pkli899
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25-Mar-2025 16:51     
 
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 Alert Admin 		LOL.....really touch 78c.

pkli899      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 16:34) Posted:

77c already.
78c possible today?
If yes, mean same like the other day, went up by 4.5c in one session!
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SmallSmall
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25-Mar-2025 16:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		$0.775 cleared liao..... :)
Never short a counter just because you think it has gone up too much becasue others are slao doing the same
 

SmallSmall      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 09:11) Posted:

$0.75 liao.....The interesting part is volume only 2 mil and can go up $0.015.. Go figure out

SmallSmall      ( Date: 24-Mar-2025 15:17) Posted:

$0.75 coming...Just stay tuned
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pkli899
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25-Mar-2025 16:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Haha.....77.5c!
Crazy man.
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hokpin
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25-Mar-2025 16:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I am one of them too. Because of this sharejunctions, I managed to learn a lot very useful analysis from Volvo, HRVVRH, and many other ex[erts, and I kept averaging down and accumlating in 3 series. Now, the judgement day has come. It is our days.

vicloo      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 16:24) Posted:

Kodus all.... i am one of investors who felt so hopeless holding this counter since 2 weeks after ipo, keep average down to 42c and stucked at 36-37c for nearly 2 years....

Let's all hold till at least 1 dollar.

pkli899      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 16:00) Posted:

Agree with vicloo, 80c is realistically possible this week.
Then 90c, 100c, slowly march towards 117.
Too fast, my heart cannot take it.  devil
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MrBear12
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25-Mar-2025 16:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		All things are possible.

pkli899      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 16:34) Posted:

77c already.
78c possible today?
If yes, mean same like the other day, went up by 4.5c in one session!
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pkli899
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25-Mar-2025 16:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		77c already.
78c possible today?
If yes, mean same like the other day, went up by 4.5c in one session!
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MrBear12
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25-Mar-2025 16:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Don' t do that again.
The new bear that is coming may live longer and work harder than this bear.

vicloo      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 16:24) Posted:

Kodus all.... i am one of investors who felt so hopeless holding this counter since 2 weeks after ipo, keep average down to 42c and stucked at 36-37c for nearly 2 years....

Let's all hold till at least 1 dollar.

pkli899      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 16:00) Posted:

Agree with vicloo, 80c is realistically possible this week.
Then 90c, 100c, slowly march towards 117.
Too fast, my heart cannot take it.  devil
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vicloo
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25-Mar-2025 16:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Kodus all.... i am one of investors who felt so hopeless holding this counter since 2 weeks after ipo, keep average down to 42c and stucked at 36-37c for nearly 2 years....

Let's all hold till at least 1 dollar.

pkli899      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 16:00) Posted:

Agree with vicloo, 80c is realistically possible this week.
Then 90c, 100c, slowly march towards 117.
Too fast, my heart cannot take it.  devil
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pkli899
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25-Mar-2025 16:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Agree with vicloo, 80c is realistically possible this week.
Then 90c, 100c, slowly march towards 117.
Too fast, my heart cannot take it.  devil
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vicloo
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25-Mar-2025 15:54     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Agreed, if YZJFH stock price up ~3x to reach 2 dollars the PE will increase from 8 (now) to 24, still lower than iFast PE 34 now haha.

pkli899      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 15:36) Posted:

Even if 1.80 - 2.30 is the fair value, not necessary stock price will get there.
We know la, never say never. Ya la, anything can happen in stock market.
When more & more ppl think it is possible, then it will move higher and nearer to it.
Let price reach NAV first la&hellip &hellip 117 you know&hellip &hellip &hellip not 80, 90!
It is still quite a distance away......... 一 步 一 步 来 ， 不 要 急

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vicloo
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25-Mar-2025 15:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Looks like hitting 80c this week is possible too.

sgng123      ( Date: 25-Mar-2025 15:02) Posted:

Lol don matter as long big players enter, any price is possible.
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sgng123
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25-Mar-2025 15:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Every trading 0.01-0.025 gain, is it slow or fast lol.
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pkli899
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25-Mar-2025 15:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Even if 1.80 - 2.30 is the fair value, not necessary stock price will get there.
We know la, never say never. Ya la, anything can happen in stock market.
When more & more ppl think it is possible, then it will move higher and nearer to it.
Let price reach NAV first la&hellip &hellip 117 you know&hellip &hellip &hellip not 80, 90!
It is still quite a distance away......... 一 步 一 步 来 ， 不 要 急
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