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john_ric Supreme	16-Aug-2016 22:25        john_ric About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	dow dropping. tmr to break 14.80 to test 14.70
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famouspinky Supreme	16-Aug-2016 21:49        famouspinky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Why bother? Currently longist have to support their claims very hard. Immortal      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 20:20) Posted: Right on 14.81....hope dun break
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WanSiTong Supreme	16-Aug-2016 21:06        WanSiTong About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Debt-stressed KrisEnergy exploring equity raising and asset sales AUG 16, 2016, The Straits Times While KrisEnergy has not yet breached its covenant, the firm is aware of the financial obligations lying ahead, chief financial officer Kiran Raj told The Straits Times. " Acknowledging what our capital requirements are for the next 12 to 18 months, which include potentially the refinancing of our notes, our board is looking at all options, including (the issuance of) equity and equity-linked instruments, as well as asset divestment , " he added. The amount to be raised is up to US $ 150 million (S $ 201 million) by this year end. Mr Raj was referring to two outstanding KrisEnergy bonds: $ 130 million, 6.25 per cent notes due on June 9, 2017, and $ 200 million, 5.75 per cent notes due on Aug 22, 2018. KrisEnergy reported a negative working capital position as at June 30, after the reclassification of the debt due in 2017 as current liabilities. KrisEnergy has 19 contract areas -. Essentially oil and gas fields If needed, the ones where it has high or full working interest may be tabled for divestment and capital-raising. STRATEGIC INVESTOR With a strategic investor like Keppel Corp, I do not see KrisEnergy going Swiber' s way....KGI Fraser Securities " For instance, our Udan Emas block in East Indonesia, we have 100 per cent working interest in our Bala-Balakang block we have 85 per cent working interest ... Blocks that we have a large interest in, we will always look for partners to bring us down to the 50 per cent range, " the firm' s business development director Richard Lorentz said. Keppel Corp, which owns 40.5 per cent of KrisEnergy, may also come to its rescue. Mr Raj said Keppel is represented on KrisEnergy' s board, which does not rule out a private placement as one of the equity options for capital raising. He thanked Keppel for " nurturing KrisEnergy' s relationship with DBS" . This may refer to the fact that in June, KrisEnergy transferred to DBS a US $ 108.3 million revolving credit facility, which was upsized last month to US $ 148.3 million. A DBS spokesman said: " This revolving credit facility is the only loan we have granted to Kris- Energy The facility is underpinned by a credit enhanced structure and is fully secured.." Keppel Corp declined to comment. The affiliation with Keppel is a bright spot, KGI Fraser Securities analyst Joel Ng said. " With a strategic investor like Keppel Corp, I do not see KrisEnergy going Swiber' s way. But ... with a stressed balance sheet and weak cash flow, the outlook is not very positive for at least the next six months."   WanSiTong      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 16:10) Posted: KrisEnergy has a US $ 148.3 million (S $ 199.74 million) secured revolving credit facility with DBS which matures on June 30, 2018 DBS Ordinary shares: Balance at 30 June: 2,531,481,221 shares If we take the full amount of S $ 199.74 million / 2,531,481,221 shares = 7.89 cents Do not forget this is a secured revolving credit facility. A secured credit is borrowed against a tangible asset as collateral.   infoshare      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 14:41) Posted:   : http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/krisenergy-warns-debt-covenants-may-come-under-stress   Outlook of NPL for DBS seems not positive was want to imagine
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Immortal Master	16-Aug-2016 20:20        Immortal About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Right on 14.81....hope dun break
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investshare Supreme	16-Aug-2016 16:43        investshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agree. It also depends on your priority and assumption. Good luck to you too. willisow      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 16:41) Posted: Hey pal, sorry for being so LOH soh..there is neither right or wrong when come to valuation becos it is an estimation..just that I see so many ppl are concern with loan provision from our local banks thus just want to share my little opinion..good luck to u guys n make more money :p
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willisow Master	16-Aug-2016 16:41        willisow About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hey pal, sorry for being so LOH soh..there is neither right or wrong when come to valuation becos it is an estimation..just that I see so many ppl are concern with loan provision from our local banks thus just want to share my little opinion..good luck to u guys n make more money :p
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investshare Supreme	16-Aug-2016 16:35        investshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi Bro willisow, thanks for your reply. I am not quoting our originals here, it is too long :) I understand where you are coming from, and yes they are valid. For myself, in DBS case, my priority now is more on protection. So the valuation method i use is book value discount method. At current price, market already discount about $4-$5b from DBS book value. This is almost equivalent to price in 50% of DBS $20b exposure in O& G will fail, and DBS can recover 50% from them. I am comfortable with this safety margin now as DBS other business is doing well.
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Immortal Master	16-Aug-2016 16:29        Immortal About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	as long as 14.81 can hold, got chance for upside
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investshare Supreme	16-Aug-2016 16:27        investshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Doesn' t really matter, I am comfortable holding DBS at a price with 10% discount from book value. Unless if bad debt higher than operating profit, which will then erode book value. Else, as we speak, it is halfway into the quarter, and DBS could hv locked in $0.5b profit already, based on $1b/quarter. seanpent      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 15:58) Posted: still sitting on nice profit ​ probably break even if it retreat to around 14.63 - 14.65 (taking into consideration commissions) ? investshare      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 15:48) Posted: Possible. My average is $14.9, after dividend is $14.6.  Vested:    05/08 $14.86  08/08 $14.91    10/08 $14.90  12/08 $15.05
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seanpent Supreme	16-Aug-2016 16:22        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	refused to go below 14.80 ? seanpent      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 15:58) Posted: still sitting on nice profit ​ probably break even if it retreat to around 14.63 - 14.65 (taking into consideration commissions) ? investshare      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 15:48) Posted: Possible. My average is $14.9, after dividend is $14.6.  Vested:    05/08 $14.86  08/08 $14.91    10/08 $14.90  12/08 $15.05
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WanSiTong Supreme	16-Aug-2016 16:10        WanSiTong About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	KrisEnergy has a US $ 148.3 million (S $ 199.74 million) secured revolving credit facility with DBS which matures on June 30, 2018 DBS Ordinary shares: Balance at 30 June: 2,531,481,221 shares If we take the full amount of S $ 199.74 million / 2,531,481,221 shares = 7.89 cents Do not forget this is a secured revolving credit facility. A secured credit is borrowed against a tangible asset as collateral.   infoshare      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 14:41) Posted:   : http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/krisenergy-warns-debt-covenants-may-come-under-stress   Outlook of NPL for DBS seems not positive was want to imagine
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willisow Master	16-Aug-2016 16:00        willisow About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi pal, thanks for your reply...let me explain in details :) there are two methods of valueing a company and they are the relative (PE method) or the absolute method (cash flow and balance sheet). PE method basically is a relative relatiionship between the earning and the share price. In fact if a company earning is consistent the change in a pe ratio is a result of a change in the share price and thus we can say that pe ratio is a measurement of the mkt sentiment of the stock itself. if we use the net profit which comprises the non recurring income or expenses it will distort your pe ratio..during time when company have non recurring income it will push down the pe ration vice versa thus it will result in a volatile pe ratio, in this case it will be difficult to estimate the valuation becos the formula are based on pe multiply by earning, if the pe ratio itself is volatile meaning one part of the formula is inconsistent then your valuation will be volatile as well. you will find that at time when the company report high net profit due to non recurring high income or low non recurring expenses, your valuation will explode..example if a company sell a property or subsidiary and etc, this one time transaction will explode your valuation for that particular year and your valuation will drop drastically following the next year. if you uses the absolute method it basically explain even more clearer to you...when evaluating a company using cashflow and its balancesheet we are basically looking into two things, future cashflow at present value and balance sheet at present value. loan provision will be added back to the cashflow becos firstly they are not cash related and we do not expect the same amount of provision to be provided in the future coming years. Example if a company get into a litigation issue most company will set aside an amount as provision for the litigation just in case they lose the lawsuit, this expense will be added back into the cashflow becos it is an non recurring item, we do not expect the company to provide the same provision year after year into the future and at infinity,. however this provision will be deducted from the balancesheet and most of the time as an investor we do not take amount declared by the company as the real provision for deduction. Example if a company announce they set aside 1million, as a investor we shouold raise this number by 50% or more..by deducting from the balancesheet it will be recorded as a one time transaction. Not only non recurring items are deducted from the balancesheet in fact we need to adjust the balancesheet..reason being is very simple, the balancesheet record item on accounting basis and not market value basis (some will show market value but not for all item). Example under the fixed assets, if a company have fixed assets as vehicle, in the balancesheet will show the net book value after deducting the accumulated depreciation from the cost of buying the vehicle however that net book value doesnt mean it is the market value becos we want to know the estimated cash from the balancesheet plus the future cashflow from the operation to find out the estimated value of the company, thus we cant take the figure as given by the company but will have to adjust the value of the fixed asset by ourselve. someone who own a car will know that once he drive his new car down the road the mkt value is not equal to his purchase value, The market value could be just 70% of his purchase value...thus the amount of loan provision provided by banks will not be taken into consideration both from the pe ratio (relative method) or the cashflow from the operation but it wil be deducted from the balancesheet of the bank and we will have to increase that provison by ourselve and not taking what the bank provided for. Thank you :) investshare      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 14:03) Posted: I don' t think we can ignore the importance of net profit and so-called ' non-recurring losses" , For example, if you do aggressive lending, and do not make enough provision, then you will have good operating profit. But the risk is that there will be default. We cannot conveniently brush them away as one-off, non-recurring, and ignore it. willisow      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 11:10) Posted: Hi guys, a sharing with everyone on banks including DBS..if u r using the relative method for valuation it is better to focus on operating profit than net profit reported by the media..reason being operating profit measure the company core earning where else net profit include non recurring income which will distort the measurement..for past 10 years DBS operating profit has increased every year except in 2008 the global financial crisis (decreased about 5% as compared to 2007) as of the latest quarter it still shown rising in operating profit. Some ppl may query since its operating profit only fall by 5% during 2008 why is it so it' s share price drop 60% from its peak? Reason being is there is no correlation between short term mkt price n it' s operating earning but not for long term..in 2009 it share rice rebounded way above its operating profit. Current share price present the same situation as 2008, the current share price represent a 30% reduction in operating profit but in reality it' s operating profit has increased as compared to half year 2015..thus it represent an arbitrage profit..however this arbitrage profit is not going to be reflected immediately, it may take months to years for the mkt sentiment to shift to optimism n once that happen the price will rise to reflect its valuation..the safest way to invest is to pick a stock which mkt value fall below its real value n over time u will gain that arbitrage profit..there are cases where mkt value n real value fall hand in hand n that' s happening in the oil n gas sector now thus u have to do your homework in order to pick the correct stock..of cos we can' t guarantee that DBS operating profit will not fall 30% going forward but as an investor we take calculated risk n the past probability shown that even during a massive recession like the global financial crisis dis operating profit only drop 5% n that' s the only time it drop since the last 10 years from now, thus those who are keen in this company n buy a fraction n buy further when it share price dip further that represent a 40% drop in operating profit n that will be sgd12 plus..good day..
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willisow Master	16-Aug-2016 16:00        willisow About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi pal, thanks for your reply...let me explain in details :) there are two methods of valueing a company and they are the relative (PE method) or the absolute method (cash flow and balance sheet). PE method basically is a relative relatiionship between the earning and the share price. In fact if a company earning is consistent the change in a pe ratio is a result of a change in the share price and thus we can say that pe ratio is a measurement of the mkt sentiment of the stock itself. if we use the net profit which comprises the non recurring income or expenses it will distort your pe ratio..during time when company have non recurring income it will push down the pe ration vice versa thus it will result in a volatile pe ratio, in this case it will be difficult to estimate the valuation becos the formula are based on pe multiply by earning, if the pe ratio itself is volatile meaning one part of the formula is inconsistent then your valuation will be volatile as well. you will find that at time when the company report high net profit due to non recurring high income or low non recurring expenses, your valuation will explode..example if a company sell a property or subsidiary and etc, this one time transaction will explode your valuation for that particular year and your valuation will drop drastically following the next year. if you uses the absolute method it basically explain even more clearer to you...when evaluating a company using cashflow and its balancesheet we are basically looking into two things, future cashflow at present value and balance sheet at present value. loan provision will be added back to the cashflow becos firstly they are not cash related and we do not expect the same amount of provision to be provided in the future coming years. Example if a company get into a litigation issue most company will set aside an amount as provision for the litigation just in case they lose the lawsuit, this expense will be added back into the cashflow becos it is an non recurring item, we do not expect the company to provide the same provision year after year into the future and at infinity,. however this provision will be deducted from the balancesheet and most of the time as an investor we do not take amount declared by the company as the real provision for deduction. Example if a company announce they set aside 1million, as a investor we shouold raise this number by 50% or more..by deducting from the balancesheet it will be recorded as a one time transaction. Not only non recurring items are deducted from the balancesheet in fact we need to adjust the balancesheet..reason being is very simple, the balancesheet record item on accounting basis and not market value basis (some will show market value but not for all item). Example under the fixed assets, if a company have fixed assets as vehicle, in the balancesheet will show the net book value after deducting the accumulated depreciation from the cost of buying the vehicle however that net book value doesnt mean it is the market value becos we want to know the estimated cash from the balancesheet plus the future cashflow from the operation to find out the estimated value of the company, thus we cant take the figure as given by the company but will have to adjust the value of the fixed asset by ourselve. someone who own a car will know that once he drive his new car down the road the mkt value is not equal to his purchase value, The market value could be just 70% of his purchase value...thus the amount of loan provision provided by banks will not be taken into consideration both from the pe ratio (relative method) or the cashflow from the operation but it wil be deducted from the balancesheet of the bank and we will have to increase that provison by ourselve and not taking what the bank provided for. Thank you :) investshare      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 14:03) Posted: I don' t think we can ignore the importance of net profit and so-called ' non-recurring losses" , For example, if you do aggressive lending, and do not make enough provision, then you will have good operating profit. But the risk is that there will be default. We cannot conveniently brush them away as one-off, non-recurring, and ignore it. willisow      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 11:10) Posted: Hi guys, a sharing with everyone on banks including DBS..if u r using the relative method for valuation it is better to focus on operating profit than net profit reported by the media..reason being operating profit measure the company core earning where else net profit include non recurring income which will distort the measurement..for past 10 years DBS operating profit has increased every year except in 2008 the global financial crisis (decreased about 5% as compared to 2007) as of the latest quarter it still shown rising in operating profit. Some ppl may query since its operating profit only fall by 5% during 2008 why is it so it' s share price drop 60% from its peak? Reason being is there is no correlation between short term mkt price n it' s operating earning but not for long term..in 2009 it share rice rebounded way above its operating profit. Current share price present the same situation as 2008, the current share price represent a 30% reduction in operating profit but in reality it' s operating profit has increased as compared to half year 2015..thus it represent an arbitrage profit..however this arbitrage profit is not going to be reflected immediately, it may take months to years for the mkt sentiment to shift to optimism n once that happen the price will rise to reflect its valuation..the safest way to invest is to pick a stock which mkt value fall below its real value n over time u will gain that arbitrage profit..there are cases where mkt value n real value fall hand in hand n that' s happening in the oil n gas sector now thus u have to do your homework in order to pick the correct stock..of cos we can' t guarantee that DBS operating profit will not fall 30% going forward but as an investor we take calculated risk n the past probability shown that even during a massive recession like the global financial crisis dis operating profit only drop 5% n that' s the only time it drop since the last 10 years from now, thus those who are keen in this company n buy a fraction n buy further when it share price dip further that represent a 40% drop in operating profit n that will be sgd12 plus..good day..
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seanpent Supreme	16-Aug-2016 15:58        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	still sitting on nice profit ​ probably break even if it retreat to around 14.63 - 14.65 (taking into consideration commissions) ? investshare      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 15:48) Posted: Possible. My average is $14.9, after dividend is $14.6.  Vested:    05/08 $14.86  08/08 $14.91    10/08 $14.90  12/08 $15.05       lionking      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 15:41) Posted: waiting to buy at 14.60
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Immortal Master	16-Aug-2016 15:57        Immortal About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I hope 14.81 can hold
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investshare Supreme	16-Aug-2016 15:48        investshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Possible. My average is $14.9, after dividend is $14.6.  Vested:    05/08 $14.86  08/08 $14.91    10/08 $14.90  12/08 $15.05       lionking      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 15:41) Posted: waiting to buy at 14.60
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seanpent Supreme	16-Aug-2016 15:47        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	is 14.60 or 14.50  the next immediate support ? lionking      ( Date: 16-Aug-2016 15:41) Posted: waiting to buy at 14.60
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haruta Elite	16-Aug-2016 15:46        haruta About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I thought somebody said wait for $10? Or below?
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lionking Member	16-Aug-2016 15:41        lionking About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	waiting to buy at 14.60
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infoshare Senior	16-Aug-2016 14:41        infoshare About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	: http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/krisenergy-warns-debt-covenants-may-come-under-stress   Outlook of NPL for DBS seems not positive was want to imagine
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