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DBS
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DBS
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FATABA
Supreme |
30-Aug-2016 10:38
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DBS is offering over $1B profit a qtr. ( this is NET income and with provision taken)  Fact is fact for this large SEA bank. We were continue to hear noises from many source/ but we too know the objective of this noise ( some are banks in their own country and cant product this margin ) . So dyodd .....BV is 16.80 ( Phillip website) @15.10 is 90% of book value. Of course some like to debate about this book value....whatever its a bank govern by many rules and regulations. NPL is known and in qtr financial reports. Happy investing . DYODD>
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willisow
Master |
30-Aug-2016 10:28
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Subject: Types of Investors There are generally 3 types of investors in the stock mkt, Chartists, intelligence speculators (IS) n value investors (VI) As I' m from the value school, I will talk about the latter two.. There is only a thin thread between the IS n VI. both scrutinize the financial statements, pay no attention to macro factors n Buying with a margin of safety. the only difference is IS go for short term arbitrage profit where else VI do the opposite. to provide aide to my explanation I will use DBS as an example since this is the chat room for DBS counter. I have shared with everyone the valuation price for DBS is sgd20. It is derived from the latest annualise operating earning n the price which most of us have bought are 30% off its operating earning n this buffer is known as margin of safety (difference between the share value n it' s business value). Thus, effectively the margin of safety will become our profit once the valuation is realized. VI also does the same when they buy, they will also set a margin of safety based on the latest annualise earning. However when they sell they will look at the valuation for long term (some uses 10 years n some uses infinity). Using DBS as an example, DBS operating profit for the last ten years has doubled, likewise for ocbc. Uob grew about 50% reason being is comparing to DBS n ocbc who have acquisition on a second bank, uob has no m& a for the last ten years.  We can' t use the past growth rate for DBS becos it was distorted due to acquisition but we can benchmark against sg GDP growth plus a margin since the bulk of its income are still deriving in sg. Assuming the long term GDP growth is 2% we can double it n uses 4% as DBS long term earning growth rate (assuming contribution from other countries as well). There is no right or wrong as to what growth rate we used becos it is a projection but at least something that is reasonable n can be measured against other factors (at least cover inflation). Thus if u take a time horizon of 10 years n 4% annual growth, DBS valuation will be at sgd30. Again, this is a price we are not talking about today, a month or year later, we are talking about within the next 10 years.  Thus by warren Buffett standard, the sgd20 which I shared is not considered as value investment at most an intelligence speculation becos it is based on current earning n not future earning. That' s the reason y he said " if u can' t hold a stock for 10 years, do not hold it for 10 minutes" :)  
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
30-Aug-2016 08:54
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Everything will be clear when 3Q 16 results out...   WanSiTong           ( Date: 30-Aug-2016 07:06) Posted:   
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famouspinky
Supreme |
30-Aug-2016 08:45
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Quarterly profit at 1mil, 23 bil, potential defaults frm companies closing shop, will book value increase of decrease?
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
30-Aug-2016 08:42
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Bargain Stocks for Value Investors. Stock   price has been severely punished. 1st half 2016 net profit $ 2,313 M Average quarterly profit more than   $ 1,000 M NAV of course is not fixed.....NAV will increase and get better over time. DYODD  
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famouspinky
Supreme |
30-Aug-2016 08:15
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Though, the punishment had come. NAV is fixed? Lol
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
30-Aug-2016 07:11
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Net Book Value per share as at 30.6.16   : $ 16.48
         
Average Earning per share per Qtr : $ 0.40        
 
 
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
30-Aug-2016 07:06
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I thought it' s something new.... This BT news dated AUG 9, 2016   5:50 AM ....after DBS announced the 2Q 16 results on 8/8/16. Specific and general allowances had been provided for in 2Q 16   
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famouspinky
Supreme |
30-Aug-2016 05:27
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👍
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buysellbuysell
Master |
30-Aug-2016 00:41
Yells: "someone please sell down low so that others can buy low" |
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http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/dbss-oil-gas-exposure-up-by-another-s1b work your eyes ! DYODD if it is true $23 billion exposure.... not much only 23 x $1,000,000,000 = $23,000,000,000 SGD only what. get from the lemmings probably will be good already.. not 23 billion, it' ll be $17 billion as per news probably. contagion is the keyword probably...  the pic shows the CEO expression unmoved... got muscle mah DBS hor.... buy ah buy ah all buy DBS ah.... DYODD. |
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Immortal
Master |
29-Aug-2016 22:25
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Thanks will check your model first and complement with my own stuff.
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willisow
Master |
29-Aug-2016 22:00
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Hello Longtermer, U r most welcome n blessing to u too...thank you :)  
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Longtermer
Elite |
29-Aug-2016 21:44
Yells: "A disciplined investor is a wealthy investor" |
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Hi Willisow, thanks for sharing your knowledge. Much appreciated by many I believe. Blessings   |
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willisow
Master |
29-Aug-2016 16:02
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Almost forgot, for point 2 u need to add back non cash items like depreciation, amortization n etc n u also need to exclude non recurring income n xpenses. Thus u need to have accounting knowledge to extract the numbers..thanks
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willisow
Master |
29-Aug-2016 15:27
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Once again, those who find this model useful n if it does help u to make profit, pls donate a fraction of your profit to SPCA or any charity organization that help the stray dogs n cats. Even a small sum will be very helpful to these 4 legged friends... Thank you
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willisow
Master |
29-Aug-2016 15:14
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Hi pal, I just saw your request to re-furnish the pe valuation model. I have no mean to let others know of your private message to me but just in case there are others who have the same request I would have to re-write again. Thus I will re-write openly n those who are interested can take note of it: 1) get your broker to furnish u the last 10 years closing price of DBS @31st dec 2) extract the operating profit before loan provision (u need to divide it by the total share issue @31st dec) from DBS last 10 years financial report 3) divide the closing price of each year with the operating profit per share to get a yearly pe ratio 4) re-arrange these pe ratio from smallest to largest n sum up year 5 n 6 thereafter divide by 2 to get the median pe ratio 5) multiply by the latest quarter DBS operating profit per share (u need to annualise it) with the median pe ratio n u will get the valuation. Note: this model only can be used on companies that have stable operating profit record. For beginner , it is not advisable to apply the model on all companies becos u lack the experience n knowledge in value investment n u can be burned easily when applying to companies that have volatile operating profit. Thank you...
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willisow
Master |
29-Aug-2016 13:16
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Thank you pal :) we can always learn from each others, there are times that I will make mistake too. No one is borned with perfect wisdom, there will be hits n knocks along our path n experience is accumulated along the way..cheer..
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Poawaw
Member |
29-Aug-2016 12:43
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Hi Willisow, thanks for your many constructive posts. Just to let u know, there are much to learn from your posting.
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famouspinky
Supreme |
29-Aug-2016 11:23
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Sti now 2830, mkt will always give chance. | |||||
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famouspinky
Supreme |
29-Aug-2016 10:48
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👍
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