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Latest Forum Topics / YZJ Shipbldg SGD    Last:3.46    -0.12  Post Reply
GSS ENERGY - The NEW ENERGY PLAY BULL
PiRPiR
Master
15-Nov-2023 22:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Seoul readies $544m in aid for Korean shipyards
Photo of Sam Chambers Sam ChambersNovember 15, 2023

https://splash247.com/seoul-readies-544m-in-aid-for-korean-shipyards/
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Battle123
Elite
15-Nov-2023 22:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This also one of the sluggards under sti

When can wake up and fly ...

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Winnertakeall
Elite
15-Nov-2023 21:39     
 
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 Alert Admin

  ONE shares $2bn methanol dual-fuelled container ship order with two Chinese yards



Asian liner giant is said to have ordered six vessels each at Jiangnan Shipyard and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
15 November 2023 9:39 GMT  UPDATED    15 November 2023 9:52 GMT

Plummeting profits and an over-supplied container market are not stopping Asian liner giant Ocean Network Express from placing new vessel orders.

Shipbuilding sources say the Singapore-headquartered company, known as ONE, has selected two shipyards in China to build a series of methanol dual-fuel 13,000-teu neo-panamax boxships worth close to $2bn. ONE is said to have contracted state-owned Jhiangnan Shipyard and Singapore-listed Yangzijiang Shipbuilding to build six each.
 
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
15-Nov-2023 08:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		11/8, 1.49-1.54, closed 1.50, 19m, T-day
11/9, 1.45-1.52, closed 1.47, 32m
11/10, 1.46-1.51, closed 1.49, 16m
11/14, 1.47-1.50, closed 1.48, 16m

Wed 11/15 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Numbers for thought.
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
14-Nov-2023 08:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		11/7, 1.53-1.56, closed 1.54, 9m, T-day
11/8, 1.49-1.54, closed 1.50, 19m
11/9, 1.45-1.52, closed 1.47, 32m
11/10, 1.46-1.51, closed 1.49, 16m

Tue 11/14 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Numbers speak louder than words.
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Winnertakeall
Elite
11-Nov-2023 20:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		lloydslist.com (10 Nov 2023)

Yangzijiang offloads stranded jack-up rig

Sale price estimated to be around $39m based on the builder financial results, suggesting a substantial discount

Deal comes as demand has rebounded for assets of this class to tap offshore reserves amid a recovery of oil prices
  • YANGZIJIANG EXPECTS THE RIG DISPOSAL TO HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ITS EARNINGS FOR 2023.

 

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fuzzyshares
Veteran
09-Nov-2023 20:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		11/6, 1.48-1.55, closed 1.54, 47m, T-day
11/7, 1.53-1.56, closed 1.54, 9m
11/8, 1.49-1.54, closed 1.50, 19m
11/9, 1.45-1.52, closed 1.47, 32m

Fri 11/10 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Munch or crunch?
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AhTan888
Senior
09-Nov-2023 17:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Closed better than expected. Maybe will test 1.42 tmr
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wehuattogether88
Supreme
09-Nov-2023 16:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Likely sell on News.
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AhTan888
Senior
09-Nov-2023 15:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Despite all the good news. Price moving south .
Sell on news?
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FrancisLim
Elite
09-Nov-2023 15:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Is this positive for the share price?

aragosta      ( Date: 08-Nov-2023 18:19) Posted:

--- Post Removed by User ---
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
08-Nov-2023 21:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		11/3, 1.51-1.54, closed 1.52, 40m, T-day
11/6, 1.48-1.55, closed 1.54, 47m
11/7, 1.53-1.56, closed 1.54, 9m
11/8, 1.49-1.54, closed 1.50, 19m

Thr 11/9 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. The '50s beckon.
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
07-Nov-2023 19:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		11/2, 1.44-1.49, closed 1.49, 23m, T-day
11/3, 1.51-1.54, closed 1.52, 40m
11/6, 1.48-1.55, closed 1.54, 47m
11/7, 1.53-1.56, closed 1.54, 9m

Wed 11/8 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Wait and see.
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Winnertakeall
Elite
06-Nov-2023 21:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		NextInsight News
YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING: 3 analysts' price targets $1.90, $1.92, $1.96

&bull Yangzijiang Shipbuilding' s stock price has corrected from $1.72 three weeks ago to $1.52 but its record orderbook and positive 3Q  business update  support an upturn in the stock. 

&bull 3 analysts have put out reports post-3Q robust business update.  DBS Vickers,  UOB KH  and CGS-CIMB have price targets of  $1.90, $1.92  and  $1.96, respectively.

&bull Yangzijiang' s orderbook stood at RMB14.8 billion as of 3Q2023. This is the highest in the company' s history, which means that its future financial performance is on strong footing for the next 2-3 years.

&bull With a market cap of around  S$6 billion  currently, the stock is trading at 8-9X PE -- which is not an unattractive valuation.
  Yea 
 
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
06-Nov-2023 18:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		11/1, 1.42-1.45, closed 1.44, 22m, T-day
11/2, 1.44-1.49, closed 1.49, 23m
11/3, 1.51-1.54, closed 1.52, 40m
11/6, 1.48-1.55, closed 1.54, 47m

Tue 11/7 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Be inspired.
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emailpeter
Veteran
06-Nov-2023 17:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes, this share can be held with good confidence. One saw the strong determined rise to 1.80. It did fall on an absorbed manner owing to related dumping from its infancy sibling counter. Having seen the last strong push, it's not unreasonable for us retailers to hv accumulated more at 1.45 recently. Some of us had to cut losses for FH shares.

If the below KayHian forecast of NPAT holds good, I'd expect this share to test 1.80 again by Mar '24, a sitback relax 25% gain. But in the likely event of SH beating those concensus profit, coupled with their purported promise of higher dividends, the current "gangster" BB's or syndicates might push it up way past 2.00 by May '24. Thats a potential 40% gain cumm div.

Jury is still out on management LT plans. Ren Jr might well be chip off the old block, who hoarded 9 yrs of SH residual profit to form the now beaten and abused FH. If he forms another FH Mk II, then we better bolt 10 mins before T Rowe, BlackRock & rest of BB's head for the door. I guess we will need sitout 4 mths to find out...... Happy investing & do update us.

huattuatua      ( Date: 06-Nov-2023 16:21) Posted:

shiok shiok, watching it to reverse from morning lows of 148/49 to 154/155

think more upside 

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huattuatua
Elite
06-Nov-2023 16:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		shiok shiok, watching it to reverse from morning lows of 148/49 to 154/155

think more upside 
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emailpeter
Veteran
06-Nov-2023 12:59     
 
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 Alert Admin
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) (YZJSGD SP)

Sailing Towards A Strong Year On Multiple Fronts

YZJ&rsquo s 3Q23 business update indicated that the company remains on track to have another strong year for profits and new order wins, backed by an excellent track record in vessel deliveries. In 9M23, new orders for tankers have overtaken containerships. However, new global emissions standards could provide continued impetus for new orders in 2024. Maintain BUY. Raise target price to S$1.92.

WHAT&rsquo S NEW
  • No surprises with solid outlook intact. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) provided a solid 3Q23 business update, guiding that revenue trends thus far have been on track and should not provide any negative surprises to the market for the full year. Operationally, the company maintained its solid track record in delivering on its projects with two 24,000TEU containerships delivered to the Mediterranean Shipping Company being the key highlight for 3Q23.
  • Continues to experience strong order-win momentum. As expected, order win momentum continued in 3Q23 with US$770m in new orders. This has resulted in ytd orders worth US$6.54b, well ahead of the company&rsquo s admittedly conservative guidance of US$3b and in line to possibly exceed our estimate of US$7b.
  • A new phenomenon of surging tanker demand. As presaged by management earlier in the year, YZJ has experienced very strong order wins for oil tankers this year with this segment making up 43% of the company&rsquo s total order wins in 9M23 vs zero orders for such vessels in 2022. The company believes that, heading into 2024, the tanker market will remain buoyant and could see more order flow come through, driven by replacement of older vessels which do not meet new supra national emissions standards.
  • Containership outlook not as bad as feared. During the analyst briefing, YZJ&rsquo s CEO stated that while there is a meaningful supply of containerships in the next 2-3 years, the new order outlook remains reasonably solid given that new IMO regulations will drive the deeper adoption of dual-fuel LNG vessels. At present, the extremely high price of green methanol has led to a pause on orders for methanol-fueled vessels and, combined with the relatively limited supply chain for methanol, the focus is back onto LNG given the wide existence of its supply chain and reliable technology. As a result, YZJ believes that it remains in a strong competitive position to benefit from new orders, and will focus on high margin and high value ships in 2024, ie dual fuel containerships and tankers.
 
 
KEY FINANCIALS  
Year to 31 Dec (Rmbm) 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Net turnover 16,768 20,705 24,231 30,502 34,499
EBITDA 3,727 3,244 4,230 4,752 5,318
Operating profit 3,226 2,708 3,695 4,216 4,783
Net profit (rep./act.) 3,699 2,637 3,496 3,918 4,376
Net profit (adj.) 3,666 2,637 3,496 3,918 4,376
EPS (Fen) 92.9 66.8 88.6 99.3 110.9
PE (x) 8.8 12.2 9.2 8.2 7.4
P/B (x) 0.9 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 6.5 5.0 4.4 3.9
Dividend yield (%) 3.0 2.1 4.4 3.1 3.5
Net margin (%) 22.1 12.7 14.4 12.8 12.7
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) (22.1) (35.4) (46.2) (46.0) (47.3)
Interest cover (x) 53.3 30.4 84.5 124.8 203.7
ROE (%) 10.8 9.9 16.5 14.6 13.9
Consensus net profit - - 3,595 4,038 4,286
UOBKH/Consensus (x) - - 0.97 0.97 1.02
Source: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings), Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian
 

STOCK IMPACT

  • Interesting comments on regional competition. Management acknowledged that Korean yards continue to be a major force when it comes to LNG vessel construction. However, in all other shipbuilding segments, labour issues (such as workers&rsquo strikes and shortage of skilled labour) have impacted the Korean yards&rsquo competitiveness and ability to deliver on time. YZJ also highlighted that Korean yards face relatively higher costs and its supply chain is also problematic compared to Chinese yards which face more ready availability of steel due to lower demand from the property sector.
  • Willing to expand, but it&rsquo s all about location. With its yard slots full until 2026 and mostly full for 1H27, management stated that it has been in regular discussion with the local government in Shanghai to explore various expansion opportunities. However, this comes with the strict proviso that it will only look to expand if there is suitable space next to its current yards. This would therefore allow YZJ to more quickly and easily expand without disrupting its current operations and extending its management. The company commented that with the overall downturn in a number of economic sectors in and around Shanghai, the local government can now assist and focus more of its attention on the shipbuilding sector, although no timeline was provided.
  • Shipping likely to be sequentially stronger in 2H23. With the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) having staged a mild recovery in 2H23, it would appear that this segment&rsquo s gross profit on a sequential basis will be better. In 1H23, with the BDI averaging 1,157, YZJ&rsquo s shipping segment delivered gross profit of Rmb180m (-20% yoy). With the BDI averaging 1367 in 2H23 to date and 18% higher hoh, we expect the shipping segment to post better numbers. Interestingly, management stated during the analyst briefing that it is in the process of reconfiguring five of its bulk carriers from domestic to international usage, thus underscoring the increasing importance of this business&rsquo recurring revenue stream to YZJ.

EARNINGS REVISION/RISK

  • None.

VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION

  • Maintain BUY with a slightly higher PE-based target price of S$1.92, which is pegged to a target PE multiple of 10.1x (+1.5SD above the company&rsquo s five-year average of 6.8x). We believe the premium to its average PE multiple is justified given the company&rsquo s earnings visibility into 2027 as well as its strong track record of safe and efficient shipbuilding for its international customer base. At 2024 PE of 8.2x, P/B of 1.1x and EV/EBITDA of 4.4x, we believe that the company&rsquo s multiples remain inexpensive. YZJ had an outstanding orderbook for 184 vessels worth US$14.8b as at end-3Q23, with clean energy vessels accounting for c.58% of its orderbook value. We maintain our 2023 orderbook win target at US$7b.

SHARE PRICE CATALYSTS

  • Better capital management.
  • New orders in higher-margin shipbuilding segments, eg dual-fuel containerships, oil and/or LPG tankers.
  • Safe and efficient execution of orderbook and further margin expansion in 2H23.
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Joelton
Supreme
06-Nov-2023 11:14     
 
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 Alert Admin
Analysts stay positive on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding with recovery of shipping rates and strong new orders
 
CGS-CIMB and DBS Group Research analysts have stayed positive on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding following its 3QFY2023 business update on Nov 2.
 
In the quarter, the shipbuilder won new orders worth some US$770 million for 14 vessels, thanks to a rebound in the oil tanker market.
 
The strong orders momentum has prompted CGS-CIMB analyst Lim Siew Khee to estimate that the company will report new orders totalling US$1 to US$1.5 billion by the end of 2HFY2023. As of 9MFY2023, the company' s order book has reached a record US$14.82 billion.
 
Lim, citing the management, notes that the company expects to win some US$3 billion in orders in the coming FY2024 and as a sign of its growth appetite, it is awaiting the go-ahead from local authorities to let it acquire new land to support expansion in capacity.
 
" Expectations of a rebound in charter rates could be driving the demand for tankers, in our view," notes Lim in her Nov 3 note, where she kept her " add" call.
 
According to Lim, citing data from Clarksons, 1-year time charter rate for medium-range tankers fell from their recent peak of US$31,250 per day in March 2023 to US$24,000 in July 2023. However, in recent days, the rate has gained to around US$26,000.
" Management noted that the current tanker charter rates are at a good level to support customers&rsquo ship costs, but future ship demand would depend on further developments in the global geo-political situation," says Lim.
 
The company delivered a total of 11 vessels were delivered in 3QFY2023 and according to the management, there were no requests by customers to delay orders nor were there cancellations. 
 
Lim expects Yangzijiang Shipbuilding' s earnings to continue to benefit from low steel costs and favourable forex trends. 
 
She projects the company' s gross margins to be at 19.5%, 23% and 24% for FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025 respectively.
 
Her target price of $1.96 is based on a 50% premium to regional yards&rsquo 1.3x average FY2023 book value, justified by Yangzijiang' s track record of generating a stronger margin. 
 
Ho Pei Hwa of DBS Group Research is similarly positive on this counter. 
 
" We came away from Yangzijiang&rsquo s analyst briefing feeling reassured on prospects of the shipyard group," writes Ho in her Nov 3 note, where she has kept her " add" call and $1.90 target price.
 
" While order wins momentum might slow down, the current hefty order backlog provides good earnings visibility through 2026. There is upside risk to our earnings forecasts at 10% CAGR in 2023-2025," adds Ho.
 
She acknowledges that while Yangzijiang Shipbuilding operates in a cyclical shipping and shipbuilding industry, the company has built up a track record showing its ability to weather through the industry' s cycles since listing in 2007. 
 
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is the only shipyard in the region that generated positive annual profits every year since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09, she says,
 
" With orderbook-backed earnings growth and strong net cash of around 30 cents per share as well as 4-5% dividend yield, it is one of our top picks as a defensive play in the current choppy environment," adds Ho.
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s100125
Elite
06-Nov-2023 08:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		YZJ expects to win some US$3 billion in orders in the coming FY2024, it is awaiting the go-ahead from local authorities to let it acquire new land to support expansion in capacity as a sign of its growth appetite.
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