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Super Coffee
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genting^2
Master |
19-Jun-2014 18:37
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Will it break 1.60 |
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rlong8288
Master |
19-Jun-2014 16:33
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Is showtimw for those who short |
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john_ric
Supreme |
19-Jun-2014 16:24
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wow... this markwet is very volatile. this is a case of dump and pump. shortists die pain pain. |
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CashKing
Member |
19-Jun-2014 15:47
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ole ole ole.. super! |
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tradingwomen
Member |
19-Jun-2014 14:09
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It will prolly be rising slightly somemore tomorrow. Then will remain stable till q2 results is out. |
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rlong8288
Master |
19-Jun-2014 13:13
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Look like it will close higher, those who short earlier, will have to buy at a higher price.
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spore1
Supreme |
19-Jun-2014 10:43
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Hit the Jack pot .into profit liao
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tormater
Senior |
19-Jun-2014 10:21
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Turbocharge Super! | ||||||
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morningstar13
Member |
19-Jun-2014 10:05
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Super Group is at a 52-Week Low: Opportunity or Time to Flee?By Sudhan P - June 18, 2014 from The Motley FoolThe aroma from the Super Classic Charcoal Roasted White Coffee is tantalizing my senses &ndash I had just made myself a cuppa joe to keep me awake throughout the day. And for me, there&rsquo s no better instant coffee than the ones from Super Group (SGX: S10). Unfortunately, even though Super&rsquo s instant coffee might be very enjoyable for some, the company&rsquo s share price movement of late has been anything but. Currently, shares of Super are going at S$1.355 apiece, just a tad bit higher than its 52-week low of S$1.35. This also translates into a 47% fall from Super&rsquo s 52-week high of S$2.525 that was seen last August. Year-to-date, the stock is down 30%. Comparatively, Singapore&rsquo s share market in general, as represented by the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI), is up 3% for the year. What has caused Super&rsquo s fall from grace? But before we delve into that, let&rsquo s take a look at what the company&rsquo s business entails. Super is a leading instant food & beverage brand owner and has a strong market presence in Southeast Asia (SEA). For instance, it has a market share for instant beverages of around 45% in Myanmar. The firm operates in two main business segments &ndash Branded Consumer (BC) and Food Ingredients (FI). The BC segment takes care of the sale of instant coffee mixes, instant tea, cereals, etc. Under the segment, the company owns brands such as Super, Owl and NutreMill, among others. Meanwhile, the FI segment is involved in the manufacture of various beverage-ingredients for sale to other beverage manufacturers. Falling knife, scalding coffee One of the main reasons for Super&rsquo s pitiful share price performance is its poor first quarter result that was released about a month ago. During the quarter, total revenue fell 6% year-on-year to S$124.6 million on the back of 6% drops in sales for both the company&rsquo s BC and FI segments. The BC segment had suffered due to lower sales in Southeast Asia, most notably in Thailand as a result of civil unrest in the country. The Land of a Thousand Smiles is the largest BC market for Super, accounting for almost 30% of the segment&rsquo s sales. In Thailand, Super&rsquo s distributors and wholesalers had held back on stocking activities amid poorer consumption and social unrest. Meanwhile, the FI segment&rsquo s revenue drop had happened due to slower sales in Southeast Asia, especially in the Indonesian market. Around a week after the release of Super&rsquo s first quarter result, the Thai military launched a coup in Thailand, causing more fear amongst investors. The troika of 1) dismal first quarter results, 2) the military coup, and 3) high valuation of Super&rsquo s shares to begin with (at Super&rsquo s 52-week high, it was selling for almost 30 times trailing earnings), have been major factors contributing to its poor share price performance. So, to reiterate the question asked in the title of this article: Is this an opportunity for interested investors to get a bite of the company or should investors flee and never look back? To answer that, investors should first ask if the company is going through a short-term problem or have its business-fundamentals turned for the worst, permanently. Here&rsquo s some food-for-thought on the topic. Who wants discounted coffee? The civil unrest in Thailand happening at the moment is beyond the control of the company. But, military coups are a common occurrence in Thailand and the country has done fine in the grand scheme of things. When the latest political crisis in Thailand cools over, is it reasonable to expect sales of Super&rsquo s products in Thailand to pick-up when consumer demand rebounds? At a current trailing price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of around 16 and a dividend yield of 3.3%, investors should also ponder if Super&rsquo s valuation makes sense. In fact, the average PE ratio of Super&rsquo s peers is around 25, more than 9 points higher than the company&rsquo s. Furthermore, at 16 times its earnings for the last 12 months, an investor is buying into a capable management team, a well-known brand that was valued at US$150 million in 2013 (a value that&rsquo s not reflected in the company&rsquo s balance sheet) and future growth drivers. Yes. There are future growth drivers as Super&rsquo s not resting on its laurels. Some of these drivers include the opening of new production facilities such as those for botanical herbal extraction and production of liquid glucose syrup solids and nutritional oil powders. These new facilities are scheduled to come online between the second half of 2014 and 2015. These businesses are classed under Super&rsquo s FI segment and for an idea of how fast management has scaled that part of its business, consider this: FI sales were a mere S$3 million in 2007 by 2013, sales had ballooned to S$192 million. Foolish Bottomline The father of value investing, Ben Graham, has been quoted as saying that in the short-term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long-term it acts like a weighing machine. In the short-term, the market is punishing Super for its recent troubles &ndash its year-to-date share price performance is a testament to that fact. But, there&rsquo s a chance that things aren&rsquo t as dire over the long-term with the company. It&rsquo s up to you to decide if my last statement is valid. |
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tradingwomen
Member |
19-Jun-2014 09:50
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when eveyone is worry is the time to buy. now is come true. the company is debt free. and with continuous investment and capability of manufacturing free dried coffee, its foundation is set for growth. and u are talking about a brand of coffee itself which is scalable. super still got a lot of market to enter whcih she is currently planning. a product in fmcg can enter a new market much easier than a technological product. |
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
19-Jun-2014 09:36
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Super Group (SUPER SP, S10) Technical BUY with +11.7% potential return Last price: S$1.36 BUY with a target price of S$1.52 should the stock have a follow through after the formation of the potential bullish hammer in the last trading session. Should the stock price close above its immediate downward sloping trendline, watch to see if its 5- and 21-day Stochastics indicators move out of the oversold region after forming bullish crossovers. Tight protective stops could be placed at S$1.32 Source : UOBKH , DYODD |
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
19-Jun-2014 09:30
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Recently, The Motley Fool Singapore was invited to visit one of Singapore&rsquo s largest and most successful food and beverage companies, namely, Super Group. Over the last 20 years, Super Group has delivered a good return for its shareholders. Since 1995, a $10,000 investment in the company would have turned into around S$70,000 today, if the dividends had been continually reinvested. But that was then, and now is now. Could the company septuple in size again over the next two decades? That was something I wanted to find out. During our visit to the company&rsquo s site in Johore Bahru, we were able to see for ourselves the seeds of growth that were being planted today for shareholders&rsquo enjoyment tomorrow. They included the company&rsquo s impressive research and development facilities and its state-of-the-art Food Ingredient business. It was quite an eye-opener. It provided us with a glimpse of what the company could look like years from now. But what excited me even more was the refreshing lack of concern by the managers about the company&rsquo s recent share-price movements. That was inspirational. It reminded me of a quote by industrialist Collis Potter Huntingdon. The shipbuilder once said: We shall build good ships here. At a profit if we can, at a loss if we must, but always good ships. Warren Buffett, one of the best investors of our lifetime, said something similar. He told investors: Time is the friend of a wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre. Here, then, is a lesson for stock market investors everywhere: You can&rsquo t build a wonderful company with one eye on the business and the other on the stock price. Today&rsquo s saplings There are many things that the mangers of a business can influence. These include the company&rsquo s efficiency, its profitability and its productivity. These are the things that they should focus on. As to the share price, investing guru Peter Lynch said: Often, there is no correlation between the success of a company' s operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even a few years. He added: In the long term, there is a 100 percent correlation between the success of the company and the success of its stock. So, the question for you is this: Do you have the patience to wait for the saplings of today to grow into the trees that will provide you with shade tomorrow? |
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z2111j
Member |
19-Jun-2014 09:27
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super lai liao. Think it wont close lower than 1.395 today. |
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rlong8288
Master |
19-Jun-2014 09:13
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steady lah...............SUPER, finding it TURBO charge again, hope it can hold. |
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spore1
Supreme |
18-Jun-2014 14:30
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Let's see if it can close 1.375 tdy and tmr cont to cross over 1.40
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rlong8288
Master |
18-Jun-2014 13:58
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even with rating cut to 1.59 from 1.98 it is still a fair report, hope this can stop the everyday bleeding.... even Noble is recovering today after the past few days bleeding.
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halleluyah
Supreme |
18-Jun-2014 13:55
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yeah dividend of 0.02 wil b given in Aug.
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spore1
Supreme |
18-Jun-2014 13:33
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Congrats !u won't know what is the bottom price but 1.34 is Gd price.Is almost time to renounce .this is a v solid comp zero debts.2nd qtr can expect CD.U r into profit now 1.355
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
18-Jun-2014 13:22
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Super Group - Softer recovery expected Written By Stock Fanatic on Wednesday, June 18, 2014
&bull Softer earnings pickup in 2H14 on lower revenue estimates
&bull 2H14 marketing and production initiatives may provide upside
&bull Maintain Outperform
■ What&rsquo s new
Following our recent conference call with Super Group&rsquo s management, we lower our revenue growth and raise our operating-expense assumptions on conservative guidance. We expect earnings to trough in 2Q14, with a more gradual rebound in core earnings for 2H14.
■ What&rsquo s the impact
Muted revenue growth.
We highlight three concerns on branded consumer sales growth:
1) subdued consumption and foreign exchange risk in Thailand,
2) price discounts weighing on Myanmar sales volume, and
3) Nutremill rebranding woes and mounting price competition in Singapore and Malaysia.
In addition, consolidation in China&rsquo s milk tea industry and lacklustre 1Q14 coffee powder demand may be a drag on the ingredients business. As such, we trim our revenue forecasts by 5.7- 6.2% over 2014-16.
2H14 initiatives underway. Marketing initiatives, rebranding campaigns and new product launches have been lined up 2H14. In addition, new production capabilities in botanical herbal extract, nutritional oil power and additional coffee powder are on track for 2H14. Successful execution in marketing efforts and sales from new output capabilities may provide upside to our revenue forecasts.
futures have fallen 10% from their March 2014 highs due to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts for record coffee output from Vietnam in 2014-15. Assuming commodity prices do not retest the highs of 2011, management remains confident that blended gross margin can remain within the 35-40% range.
Downside may be limited. Super Group&rsquo s share price has fallen by 28% YTD, with forward PER valuations now 0.5SD above the stock&rsquo s long-term mean.
Though sentiment remains weak, we see lower risk of a sharp sell-down from current levels, supported by:
1) less demanding PER valuations, 2) firm institutional interest, and 3) repurchase options. Gradual recovery in 2H14. Following our earnings cuts of 7.0%, 10.2% and 9.6% for 2014-16E, we are now expecting a 16% YoY decline (from -12 YoY) in 1H14 core EPS and a softer recovery of 7% YoY growth (from +15% YoY) in 2H14. We expect core EPS growth to decline by 5% in 2014. We forecast Super Group to deliver strong earnings growth of 16% YoY in 2015 and 20% YoY in 2016, with a core EPS CAGR of 9.7% over 2013-16.
Technical Analysis
■ What we recommend
We maintain our Outperform (2) rating but cut our 6-month DCF/PER target price to SGD1.59 from SGD1.98, assuming a WACC of 8.4%, terminal growth of 2.5% and a 2015E PER target of 18.3x (rolled over to 2015). We apply a 19% discount to the 2015E regional PER average of 22.5x due to the stock&rsquo s lower 3-year EPS CAGR. Key risks include commodity price increases, adverse foreign exchange movements and deterioration in Thailand.
■ How we differ
Our 2014 EPS forecast is 6.4% below consensus due to higher operating expenses. (Read Report)
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halleluyah
Supreme |
18-Jun-2014 13:16
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Shld rebound...almost dry up...no sellers.......cheers wth coffee!! |
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