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Latest Forum Topics / ComfortDelGro    Last:1.28    -0.01  Post Reply
COMFORT DELGRO - MOVING FORWARD
josephyeo
Elite
19-May-2023 08:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thank you for your concerns. I am perfectly ok. Have been buying more at the 1.12 level.
Have survived the market n all the crashes in the past 27 years. Based on my past experience,
taking a position in Comfortdelgro is an easy decision.
 

Conman      ( Date: 19-May-2023 06:29) Posted:

Whre is Bro Joseph Yeo? You OK? 🤣 🤣 🤣

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n3wbie
Elite
19-May-2023 07:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If we were to compare... look at Grab' s results. CDG is generating solid cash flows and profitability quarterly although of course their business models are very different but can' t help but benchmark within the peer group beyond the usual transport companies in AU and UK
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halleluyah
Supreme
19-May-2023 07:28     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Bro Conman, hv u covered yr shorts aredi???

Conman      ( Date: 19-May-2023 06:29) Posted:

Whre is Bro Joseph Yeo? You OK? 🤣 🤣 🤣

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n3wbie
Elite
19-May-2023 07:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		RHB just published an update this morning and cut TP from $1.40 to $1.25

ComfortDelGro (CD SP, BUY, TP: SGD1.25)

Expecting Some Improvement In 2H23 Keep BUY

Company Update

Keep BUY, with new SGD1.25 TP from SGD1.40, 12% upside and c.5% yield. 1Q23 revenue was in line, but net profit came in below our and consensus estimates. The underperformance largely came from weaker public transport margin and a drag on taxi earnings from incentives offered to taxi drivers in China, where utilisation levels remain soft. We lower 2023F-2025F earnings by 10&ndash 12%. We expect earnings to gradually improve in 2H23 amidst reductions in taxi rental rebates and benefits from the annual indexation of overseas bus contracts

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Conman
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19-May-2023 06:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Whre is Bro Joseph Yeo? You OK? 🤣 🤣 🤣
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OnlyGreen
Member
18-May-2023 23:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		1. Shake-off till what price all ?

2. 1.06 and below good for supply ?
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desmlee
Member
18-May-2023 23:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Probably going to see the stock seesaw sideways for a while....again

vivacious      ( Date: 18-May-2023 16:58) Posted:

selling has dried up. 

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desmlee
Member
18-May-2023 23:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Good points raised here. Tks for sharing

n3wbie      ( Date: 17-May-2023 23:52) Posted:

I suspect investors dont see where the growth levers are, evidenced by the shrinking financials. 1Q23 was a disappointment with the margins as it underperformed and missed market' s expectations on several fronts. Their cash flows remain strong given the asset-light model with the bus contracts for e.g. where they come in as an operator. The net cash position is good but it also reflects the lack of ideas / areas that the management can effectively deploy capital to yield a higher return for shareholders. They had invested substantially into the UK and Australia but equally, the returns havent been fantastic and we all know Singapore is a stagnant market.

This then becomes a value play (or trap) and/or yield play. Estimates are about 4+% div yield and at that level, why not be exposed to SGS / T-bills which are risk free at comparable returns? The carry is not compelling to turn CDG investment proposition into a yield-play in that regard so it becomes a value trap if they dont have a plan / share initiatives of navigating through the market headwinds. 

It somewhat reminds me of SPH - again one of those old school companies that had not evolved nor transformed quick enough to be disrupted by other industry incumbents, in this case the PHV platforms. They need to do something more substantive and material - a strategic review like what SPH did few years back worked well
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Conman
Elite
18-May-2023 21:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Wrong 🤗

vivacious      ( Date: 18-May-2023 16:58) Posted:

selling has dried up. 

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vivacious
Supreme
18-May-2023 16:58     
 
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 Alert Admin 		selling has dried up. 
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n3wbie
Elite
18-May-2023 16:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Given the shareholding, it is also likely that it will trigger a chain offer for the other two listcos so the offeror will need to make an offer for essentially 3 listcos. The other challenge is there isnt really a majority shareholder and with the share price decline, it will require a significant premium to convince existing shareholders to tender their shares

Conman      ( Date: 18-May-2023 11:10) Posted:

Privatisation is easier said than done. Who is going to pay for a sun-setting high cost-low profit business like this? Even for de-listing, is its so-called $775m 'facilities' enough to pay back the investors given that SBST and Vicom are both also listed and value already 'unlocked'?

vivacious      ( Date: 17-May-2023 20:45) Posted:

privatize!
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henrymilton
Master
18-May-2023 11:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		What is the dividend like.
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Conman
Elite
18-May-2023 11:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Privatisation is easier said than done. Who is going to pay for a sun-setting high cost-low profit business like this? Even for de-listing, is its so-called $775m 'facilities' enough to pay back the investors given that SBST and Vicom are both also listed and value already 'unlocked'?

vivacious      ( Date: 17-May-2023 20:45) Posted:

privatize!!

Conman      ( Date: 17-May-2023 18:44) Posted:

It is 2013, not 2008/9. The advance of technology and digitalisation of human activities have made the bus/taxi business more and more redundant.

Hence you are going to see worse and worse results quarter by quarter. The trend is irreversible
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n3wbie
Elite
17-May-2023 23:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I suspect investors dont see where the growth levers are, evidenced by the shrinking financials. 1Q23 was a disappointment with the margins as it underperformed and missed market' s expectations on several fronts. Their cash flows remain strong given the asset-light model with the bus contracts for e.g. where they come in as an operator. The net cash position is good but it also reflects the lack of ideas / areas that the management can effectively deploy capital to yield a higher return for shareholders. They had invested substantially into the UK and Australia but equally, the returns havent been fantastic and we all know Singapore is a stagnant market.

This then becomes a value play (or trap) and/or yield play. Estimates are about 4+% div yield and at that level, why not be exposed to SGS / T-bills which are risk free at comparable returns? The carry is not compelling to turn CDG investment proposition into a yield-play in that regard so it becomes a value trap if they dont have a plan / share initiatives of navigating through the market headwinds. 

It somewhat reminds me of SPH - again one of those old school companies that had not evolved nor transformed quick enough to be disrupted by other industry incumbents, in this case the PHV platforms. They need to do something more substantive and material - a strategic review like what SPH did few years back worked well
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vivacious
Supreme
17-May-2023 20:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		privatize!!

Conman      ( Date: 17-May-2023 18:44) Posted:

It is 2013, not 2008/9. The advance of technology and digitalisation of human activities have made the bus/taxi business more and more redundant.

Hence you are going to see worse and worse results quarter by quarter. The trend is irreversible.

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 17-May-2023 16:28) Posted:

The company' s enterprise value is now below global financial crisis (2008-2009) levels... Not sure how this makes sense... Unless the market believes the company is going to go absolutely bust in the next years? I continue to buy as a true contrarian. Hope I' m right. 
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Conman
Elite
17-May-2023 18:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		It is 2013, not 2008/9. The advance of technology and digitalisation of human activities have made the bus/taxi business more and more redundant.

Hence you are going to see worse and worse results quarter by quarter. The trend is irreversible.

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 17-May-2023 16:28) Posted:

The company' s enterprise value is now below global financial crisis (2008-2009) levels... Not sure how this makes sense... Unless the market believes the company is going to go absolutely bust in the next years? I continue to buy as a true contrarian. Hope I' m right. 

vivacious      ( Date: 17-May-2023 16:13) Posted:

OVERSOLD
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vivacious
Supreme
17-May-2023 17:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		yes. I am averaging the past 2 days

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 17-May-2023 16:28) Posted:

The company' s enterprise value is now below global financial crisis (2008-2009) levels... Not sure how this makes sense... Unless the market believes the company is going to go absolutely bust in the next years? I continue to buy as a true contrarian. Hope I' m right. 

vivacious      ( Date: 17-May-2023 16:13) Posted:

OVERSOLD
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran
17-May-2023 16:28     
 
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Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. "
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 Alert Admin 		The company' s enterprise value is now below global financial crisis (2008-2009) levels... Not sure how this makes sense... Unless the market believes the company is going to go absolutely bust in the next years? I continue to buy as a true contrarian. Hope I' m right. 

vivacious      ( Date: 17-May-2023 16:13) Posted:

OVERSOLD
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vivacious
Supreme
17-May-2023 16:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		OVERSOLD
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vivacious
Supreme
17-May-2023 09:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		selling shld dry up soon - OVERSOLD
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