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Latest Forum Topics / ThaiBev    Last:0.43    +0.005  Post Reply
Acesian Partners?Rosy Order Book
bishan22
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19-Jul-2018 13:51     
 
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 Alert Admin 		BB makan @ 74.
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lingua101
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19-Jul-2018 12:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		wow seems bullish now. lucky i have not shorted it.
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fatpanda
Supreme
18-Jul-2018 16:27     
 
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Yells: "Another wonderful day!"
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 Alert Admin 		Good try. 

lingua101      ( Date: 18-Jul-2018 16:17) Posted:

74 cents now.  should I short it?
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lingua101
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18-Jul-2018 16:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		i can only tell post the situation....

investshare      ( Date: 10-Jul-2018 12:09) Posted:

But since you already see through their plot, why can?t follow them?

lingua101      ( Date: 10-Jul-2018 10:48) Posted:

my point, they have " insider" info.    I am not
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lingua101
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18-Jul-2018 16:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		74 cents now.  should I short it?
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notredame
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16-Jul-2018 08:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://research.sginvestors.io/2018/07/thai-beverage-rhb-securities-research-2018-07-12.html

RHB Invest 2018-7-12: Bright Long Term Prospect
Maintain BUY and a new SGD 1.02 Target Price.
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investshare
Supreme
10-Jul-2018 12:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		But since you already see through their plot, why can?t follow them?

lingua101      ( Date: 10-Jul-2018 10:48) Posted:

my point, they have " insider" info.    I am not.

investshare      ( Date: 09-Jul-2018 17:58) Posted:

So easy? Why not you just follow and short along them
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BillionX
Senior
10-Jul-2018 11:23     
 
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​ Fundamentally this stock is worth a buy.It is the entry price that matters. Company is driven by family and the markets that it operates in are high growth big population.Product range F& B. Decent dividend.Good entry price now to accumulate.
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lingua101
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10-Jul-2018 10:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		my point, they have " insider" info.    I am not.

investshare      ( Date: 09-Jul-2018 17:58) Posted:

So easy? Why not you just follow and short along them?

lingua101      ( Date: 09-Jul-2018 17:31) Posted:

the way I  look at it is this way.

I am betting many of discretionary portfolio hols ThaiBev in their portfolios.    Because of JP issue sell order, then it will trigger sell order, some may happen automaticallly.  when the price drops, it will cause more sell order again..... 

should the authority prevent JP buying thaibev (or any counter) after its issue sell order?

otherwise it will benefit from it
 
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investshare
Supreme
09-Jul-2018 17:58     
 
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 Alert Admin 		So easy? Why not you just follow and short along them?

lingua101      ( Date: 09-Jul-2018 17:31) Posted:

the way I  look at it is this way.

I am betting many of discretionary portfolio hols ThaiBev in their portfolios.    Because of JP issue sell order, then it will trigger sell order, some may happen automaticallly.  when the price drops, it will cause more sell order again..... 

should the authority prevent JP buying thaibev (or any counter) after its issue sell order?

otherwise it will benefit from it
 

n3wbie      ( Date: 09-Jul-2018 17:21) Posted:

No clue but I think if you study the fundamentals of TB, they had always received criticism on their M& A (e.g. overpaying for targets, etc) but they had always emerged proving the market wrong (over time). 

Personally, I feel that brokers are only concerned with liquidity and mostly adopt a relatively short-term approach as long as there are trades on the counter, which is how they generate commissions to stay afloat, they are not as concerned about the fundamentals (which may sometimes be more mid-long term)
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lingua101
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09-Jul-2018 17:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		the way I  look at it is this way.

I am betting many of discretionary portfolio hols ThaiBev in their portfolios.    Because of JP issue sell order, then it will trigger sell order, some may happen automaticallly.  when the price drops, it will cause more sell order again..... 

should the authority prevent JP buying thaibev (or any counter) after its issue sell order?

otherwise it will benefit from it
 

n3wbie      ( Date: 09-Jul-2018 17:21) Posted:

No clue but I think if you study the fundamentals of TB, they had always received criticism on their M& A (e.g. overpaying for targets, etc) but they had always emerged proving the market wrong (over time). 

Personally, I feel that brokers are only concerned with liquidity and mostly adopt a relatively short-term approach as long as there are trades on the counter, which is how they generate commissions to stay afloat, they are not as concerned about the fundamentals (which may sometimes be more mid-long term).

lingua101      ( Date: 07-Jul-2018 23:09) Posted:

Is this jp trick to force the price down before the scoop at cheap price before the earnin
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n3wbie
Elite
09-Jul-2018 17:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		No clue but I think if you study the fundamentals of TB, they had always received criticism on their M& A (e.g. overpaying for targets, etc) but they had always emerged proving the market wrong (over time). 

Personally, I feel that brokers are only concerned with liquidity and mostly adopt a relatively short-term approach as long as there are trades on the counter, which is how they generate commissions to stay afloat, they are not as concerned about the fundamentals (which may sometimes be more mid-long term).

lingua101      ( Date: 07-Jul-2018 23:09) Posted:

Is this jp trick to force the price down before the scoop at cheap price before the earning

n3wbie      ( Date: 04-Jul-2018 21:43) Posted:

ThaiBev was downgraded by JP Morgan last week with a TP revised downwards to $0.73 (formerly $0.84).

THBEV has outperformed the STI by 7% in the past one month, driven by expectation of domestic liquor consumption recovery around the World Cup, in our view. Recent comments from the Excise Tax department suggest weak volume persisting in Apr-May, which will likely overshadow a moderate benefit from the event. Heating competition would force the company to maintain high A& P despite weak sales, squeezing margin. Our forecasts are 14-17% below the Street. Stay non-consensus UW with a lower PT of S$0.73 on potential earning cut and heightened B/S risk post SABECO&rsquo s acquisition.

Domestic volume to remain under pressure, despite the World Cup. According to the Excise Tax Department' s press interview, excise tax collection on beer/spirits continues to fall short of budget by 2%/8% in April and 38%/11% in May as volume consumption is weak across the board. While the market is recently excited about the World Cup, previous comparable World Cup events (2006 in Germany and 2010 in South Africa) suggest only c15pct extra beer volume in June-July, which would not be sufficient to compensate for slack in the prior two months. 4Q17/18&rsquo s volume contraction should turn even worse, thanks to the high base from stockpiling demand ahead of Sep-17' s excise tax hike.

 14-17% downside to consensus estimates. We forecast 3Q17/18&rsquo s EPS of Bt0.24, -10% y/y and -5% q/q. Weaker industry volume in light of rising competition would lead to margin compression, in our view, overshadowing EPS accretion from recent acquisitions. If it materializes, 9M17/18' s EPS would only be 67% of consensus in FY17/18E vs. the 75-83% normal range.

 Lower SOTP PT of S$0.73. We cut our EPS estimates by 17-18%, as we factor in weaker revenue assumptions and resulting margin contraction. Upside risks to our view are SABECO&rsquo s integration/restructuring and volume recovery
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BillionX
Senior
09-Jul-2018 14:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Welcome to Fools Paradise where the big boys play games at the expense of retail investors.Invest on fundamentals and don?t get swayed by fake reviews.
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lingua101
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07-Jul-2018 23:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Is this jp trick to force the price down before the scoop at cheap price before the earning

n3wbie      ( Date: 04-Jul-2018 21:43) Posted:

ThaiBev was downgraded by JP Morgan last week with a TP revised downwards to $0.73 (formerly $0.84).

THBEV has outperformed the STI by 7% in the past one month, driven by expectation of domestic liquor consumption recovery around the World Cup, in our view. Recent comments from the Excise Tax department suggest weak volume persisting in Apr-May, which will likely overshadow a moderate benefit from the event. Heating competition would force the company to maintain high A& P despite weak sales, squeezing margin. Our forecasts are 14-17% below the Street. Stay non-consensus UW with a lower PT of S$0.73 on potential earning cut and heightened B/S risk post SABECO&rsquo s acquisition.

Domestic volume to remain under pressure, despite the World Cup. According to the Excise Tax Department' s press interview, excise tax collection on beer/spirits continues to fall short of budget by 2%/8% in April and 38%/11% in May as volume consumption is weak across the board. While the market is recently excited about the World Cup, previous comparable World Cup events (2006 in Germany and 2010 in South Africa) suggest only c15pct extra beer volume in June-July, which would not be sufficient to compensate for slack in the prior two months. 4Q17/18&rsquo s volume contraction should turn even worse, thanks to the high base from stockpiling demand ahead of Sep-17' s excise tax hike.

 14-17% downside to consensus estimates. We forecast 3Q17/18&rsquo s EPS of Bt0.24, -10% y/y and -5% q/q. Weaker industry volume in light of rising competition would lead to margin compression, in our view, overshadowing EPS accretion from recent acquisitions. If it materializes, 9M17/18' s EPS would only be 67% of consensus in FY17/18E vs. the 75-83% normal range.

 Lower SOTP PT of S$0.73. We cut our EPS estimates by 17-18%, as we factor in weaker revenue assumptions and resulting margin contraction. Upside risks to our view are SABECO&rsquo s integration/restructuring and volume recovery.

lingua101      ( Date: 04-Jul-2018 14:35) Posted:

it keeps dropping.

when they will announce the result?
 


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SimpleTrade
Senior
05-Jul-2018 08:38     
 
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 Alert Admin 		now u all know who is shorting thaibev all these while.
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n3wbie
Elite
04-Jul-2018 21:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		ThaiBev was downgraded by JP Morgan last week with a TP revised downwards to $0.73 (formerly $0.84).

THBEV has outperformed the STI by 7% in the past one month, driven by expectation of domestic liquor consumption recovery around the World Cup, in our view. Recent comments from the Excise Tax department suggest weak volume persisting in Apr-May, which will likely overshadow a moderate benefit from the event. Heating competition would force the company to maintain high A& P despite weak sales, squeezing margin. Our forecasts are 14-17% below the Street. Stay non-consensus UW with a lower PT of S$0.73 on potential earning cut and heightened B/S risk post SABECO&rsquo s acquisition.

Domestic volume to remain under pressure, despite the World Cup. According to the Excise Tax Department' s press interview, excise tax collection on beer/spirits continues to fall short of budget by 2%/8% in April and 38%/11% in May as volume consumption is weak across the board. While the market is recently excited about the World Cup, previous comparable World Cup events (2006 in Germany and 2010 in South Africa) suggest only c15pct extra beer volume in June-July, which would not be sufficient to compensate for slack in the prior two months. 4Q17/18&rsquo s volume contraction should turn even worse, thanks to the high base from stockpiling demand ahead of Sep-17' s excise tax hike.

 14-17% downside to consensus estimates. We forecast 3Q17/18&rsquo s EPS of Bt0.24, -10% y/y and -5% q/q. Weaker industry volume in light of rising competition would lead to margin compression, in our view, overshadowing EPS accretion from recent acquisitions. If it materializes, 9M17/18' s EPS would only be 67% of consensus in FY17/18E vs. the 75-83% normal range.

 Lower SOTP PT of S$0.73. We cut our EPS estimates by 17-18%, as we factor in weaker revenue assumptions and resulting margin contraction. Upside risks to our view are SABECO&rsquo s integration/restructuring and volume recovery.

lingua101      ( Date: 04-Jul-2018 14:35) Posted:

it keeps dropping.

when they will announce the result?
 

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lingua101
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04-Jul-2018 14:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		it keeps dropping.

when they will announce the result?
 
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notredame
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30-Jun-2018 09:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		In Thailand, recent GDP data shows that growth is at its fastest  in five years. Although private consumption has yet to see broad-based
expansion, we note that the contraction in farm income has begun to slow. 
A recovery in agricultural prices would be positive in raising overall purchasing power and would benefit Thai-concentrated company like
Thaibev.   (RHB-Invest 22/06/18/ Buy- TP 1.06)
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notredame
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30-Jun-2018 08:52     
 
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How does Y92&rsquo s operating cash flow stack up against its debt?



Y92 debt levels have fallen from ฿ 46.09B to ฿ 40.66B over the last 12 months , which comprises of short- and long-term debt. With this reduction in debt, the current cash and short-term investment levels stands at ฿ 11.18B , ready to deploy into the business. Additionally, Y92 has generated cash from operations of ฿ 29.57B in the last twelve months, leading to an operating cash to total debt ratio of 72.74%, meaning that Y92 debt is appropriately covered by operating cash. This ratio can also be a sign of operational efficiency as an alternative to return on assets. In Y92 case, it is able to generate 0.73x cash from its debt capital.
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notredame
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30-Jun-2018 08:47     
 
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Does Y92 face the risk of succumbing to its debt-load?



Since equity is smaller than total debt levels, Thai Beverage is considered to have high leverage. This is not uncommon for large companies because interest payments on debt are tax deductible, meaning debt can be a cheaper source of capital than equity. Accordingly, large companies often have lower cost of capital due to easily obtained financing, providing an advantage over smaller companies. We can put the sustainability of Y92 debt levels to the test by looking at how well interest payments are covered by earnings. A company generating earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) at least three times its net interest payments is considered financially sound. For Y92, the ratio of 24.53x suggests that interest is comfortably covered. High interest coverage serves as an indication of the safety of a company, which highlights why many large organisations like Y92 are considered a risk-averse investment.

halleluyah      ( Date: 29-Jun-2018 17:23) Posted:

wait fr 65ct support....tis bugger super high debt...sekali issue rights then habis...

lingua101      ( Date: 29-Jun-2018 16:57) Posted:

72 has been broken now.

seems no more support :
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