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Nera Telecommunications - The hidden Gem
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MarcPh
Senior |
23-May-2017 17:46
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Market whisper: Debt reorganization in the pipeline. Industry expected to response to potential unwinding of Noble' s derivatives. Institutional investors scalded by Noble Bonds issued in March 2017, trading at 60% below par. Perp bonds crashed to new low of 85% below par after trading halt. Retail investors wiped out by 2017 share consolidation and 2016 rights issue. Noble Group `Fighting for Its Life' https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-22/noble-at-risk-of-debt-default-as-distress-spreads-s-p-says Moody' s Investors Service Caa1 Outlook: Negative S& P Global Ratings CCC+ Outlook: Negative
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MarcPh
Senior |
23-May-2017 07:54
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Noble perp bonds hit a new historical low of 80% below par as news emerged that that Sinochem no longer pursuing stake in Noble Group. Rumours emerged that the industry is concerned about the unwinding of Noble' s swaps and hedges in a potential collapse if new syndicate-loan is not secured. Noble Group investors brace for heavy losses as bond prices fall https://www.ft.com/content/64517528-3ef8-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2 Sinochem no longer pursuing stake buy in Noble Group https://www.reuters.com/article/us-noble-m-a-sinochem-idUSKBN18I0X4
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MarcPh
Senior |
23-May-2017 07:39
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Earlier, we discussed about Geo Energy Resources (not a buy recommendation) vs Noble in coal business. Noble Group
NOBLE Group fell into the red with a net loss of US$129.5 million for the first quarter despite a rise in revenue as operating income from supply chains plunged. Noble said that the operating environment was very challenging for the group in the first three months of this year." The dislocation in coal markets, and the very thin trading liquidity witnessed in the respective hedging instruments, was detrimental to the short term - 12 week - outturn," it said. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/noble-incurs-q1-net-loss-of-us1295m-despite-rise-in-revenue Geo Energy Resources Please take such reports with a pinch of salt. While Noble claims that Coal business was tough, in the same period Indonesia' s Geo Energy Resources claimed that they are fetching good prices for their coal and profits escalated in the first quarter of 2017. (This is not a buy recommendation for Geo Energy Resources, just mocking the half-hearted Noble quarterly report... ...such a shame). This morning, Geo Energy Resources announced the early redemption of their bonds while Noble bonds continued to drop this week.
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Geo%20-%20Press%20Release.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=454889 |
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jeremyow
Master |
22-May-2017 12:30
Yells: "Passionate business investor" |
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Building a portfolio which generates sufficient and even growing passive income is a sure way towards lasting wealth accumulation. This is due to the time compounding effect. As the business economics of fundamentally good businesses grow through the years, the share price and dividends should increase through the years. This means the value of one' s portfolio and dividends collected will keep increasing through the years if one reinvested all the dividends collected. If one regularly puts in more savings into building the portfolio, the pace at which the value of portfolio and dividends grow will be faster. But, the building up and management of such a portfolio is not so simple. There are many important rules to watch. To say is easy but to do it is difficult. One must have the know-how to build a successful portfolio which has a high chance of compounding at a high rate of return. By the time the portfolio reaches a sizable value, the passive income generated on its dividends will be likely able to cover the expenses of a person and he will also end up holding a portfolio of sizable value. So, it is winning on two ways, increasing a person' s net-worth as well as passive income at the same time. If one can gain mastery in all fields of a good business analyst, know how to value businesses, portfolio manager and capital allocator, then reaching at least a one million dollar portfolio is not difficult at all. There are even financial tools around to accelerate this portfolio building process if one knows how to operate the financial accelerators at a safe manner. So, to build wealth from the stock market is not easy but yet not difficult.
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jeremyow
Master |
22-May-2017 12:04
Yells: "Passionate business investor" |
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Yet another company which falls into the problems of weak liquidity plus weak cash generation from its businesses. The company proposed to convert a bond of S$110m coming due in 2018 and also a loan from Ezion Holdings of S$40.6m which total amounts to about $150m worth of debts to be converted to equity. The rationale given is to improve balance sheet strength, improve the comapny' s overall ability to raise funds from financial markets, reduce interest costs and improve the perception of company by its customers, suppliers, employees and stakeholders. An EGM will be convened to ask for approval by shareholders for the proposed debt-to-equity conversion. However, given AusGroup' s current share capital of S$132m, if the bond and loan from Ezion Holdings (total value of about S$150m) are all converted into new shares, it will be mean massive dilution to the share ownership for existing shareholders of AusGroup even on a conversion price of 6% premium to recent weighted-average share price. But, perhaps it has to be done this way in view of the current weak liquidity and weakened cash generation in AusGroup' s businesses.
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MarcPh
Senior |
22-May-2017 10:59
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Ausgroup proposes new share issues to exchange for outstanding bonds to shore up capital base and reduce debts. http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Debt-to-equity%20Conversion%20Media%20Release.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=454695 Instead of being offered a discount to recent weighted-average share price, the conversion price is about 6% premium. |
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jm2212
Master |
22-May-2017 06:32
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Bros... i only quoted the lucky ones... i loss my pants on some until cried no tears. My goal now is to build a portfolio which can generate sufficient passive income
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TenPips
Veteran |
22-May-2017 00:17
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Thanks, Marc. You' d quoted IE Singapore. How are they related to this saga/deal?
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MarcPh
Senior |
21-May-2017 22:57
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No, good Brother. In banking, we have strict compliance rules, but for the biggest corporations, we can bend the rules for them, even in our leading local banks On personal front, I lose until scared liao.
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famouspinky
Supreme |
21-May-2017 22:55
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When this counter at $2, i already mentioned tt its empty shell. Its amazing tt demand can push it to $2. Same with blumont. Really knw how to create fairy tales.
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MarcPh
Senior |
21-May-2017 22:53
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https://www.ft.com/content/235af5a6-3991-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
One banker involved in the talks said if the loans was renewed, his group will not be among the participating lender under guidance of his risk department. Noble declined to comment.
Another key test for Noble and its ability to cope with its debt load will come next year when it must find US$1.5bn to repay a US$379 bond and a US$1.14bn loan. " The market has no confidence in the business model" , say one banker with exposure to a Noble loan maturing next year. " No matter what they say or do, the results don' t get better."
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famouspinky
Supreme |
21-May-2017 22:53
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Henced i had always asked myself is luck really impt? Yes indeed. Big bro set rules but did not follow rules. Now, is too late liao. All closing shops.
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famouspinky
Supreme |
21-May-2017 22:50
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When Temesek has no Luck. Pointless to put money there although fundamental super strong
But what happened? A pilot who did everythg except fly hia Plane.
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MarcPh
Senior |
21-May-2017 22:45
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Yes, I am so envious. I am tired.
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famouspinky
Supreme |
21-May-2017 22:43
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Yup most tell me abt needing Luck
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MarcPh
Senior |
21-May-2017 22:38
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Thank you for your understanding good Brother. Anyway it is not privilege information by now, the news is out https://www.ft.com/content/235af5a6-3991-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec One banker involved in the talks said if the loans was renewed, his group will not be among the participating lender under guidance of his risk department. Noble declined to comment.
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MarcPh
Senior |
21-May-2017 22:31
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I don' t have such luck. As I grow older, I realised that luck is very important in investments. You can lose money on the companies with the best fundamentals and make multifolds on pennies with negative NTA if you are blessed. It got nothing to do with your deeds in life. These days, I realised I am happier spending my money on drinking than losing more in shares.
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jm2212
Master |
20-May-2017 16:44
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Think about my bond venture really lucky. Bot Swinber bond got redeemed before their financial trouble went out of control, bot otto marine bond and thought jiatlat liao, then owner took it private (but the devidend made from 2 years loss on the otto marine mother share though) | ||||
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jm2212
Master |
20-May-2017 16:35
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Hope 4 white Knight | ||||
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famouspinky
Supreme |
20-May-2017 15:26
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Ps la mai hai lang
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