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Latest Forum Topics / Oxley    Last:0.08 --  Post Reply
Is Oxley a good buy at current price?
Goodwill77
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05-Feb-2024 05:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		can or not this counter??
Dyodd
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Ligaya
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02-Feb-2024 15:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Batam is over, should look at KLCC
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Alignment
Elite
11-Dec-2023 17:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This has nothing to do with Oxley Holdings. The project you are referring to is separately held by a different listed company.

Goodwill77      ( Date: 25-Nov-2023 17:19) Posted:

One Oxley batam condo project construction continued to delay, some buyers have stop instalment payment and asked for cancelled S& P agreement...
DYODD
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moron101
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26-Nov-2023 17:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Comoany did share buy-back at 099/100 on 24 Nov. Huat.
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Goodwill77
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25-Nov-2023 17:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		One Oxley batam condo project construction continued to delay, some buyers have stop instalment payment and asked for cancelled S& P agreement...
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Alignment
Elite
11-Oct-2023 11:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This issue has now been clarified by the Oxley annoucement in response to SGX on 6 October, which makes it clear there is another S$157.6m of cash proceeds coming in from the Singaporean assets over the next year.

Alignment      ( Date: 06-Sep-2023 19:55) Posted:

Thank you for clarifying.

peppergal_87      ( Date: 03-Sep-2023 21:14) Posted:

Singapore property development projects are based on percentage of completion, so most of the revenues and profits have been recognised. What is remaining from TOP to CSC is the balance payments from buyers, so progress billings is more a reflection of remaining development project cashflow rather than profit recognition.

Overseas projects are a different matter, both from revenue recognition (P& L) and cashflow management. Would be interesting to see the actual liquidity from the overseas development projects
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Joelton
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10-Oct-2023 10:02     
 
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 Alert Admin
Oxley Holdings sells Grade A office tower at Oxley Towers KLCC to Alliance Bank Malaysia
 
PROPERTY developer Oxley Holdings : 5UX +0.95% is selling an office tower at Oxley Towers KLCC in Kuala Lumpur for approximately RM406 million (S$118 million) to Alliance Bank Malaysia.
 
The transaction includes its Grade A office tower and four adjoining parcels of retail units, Oxley said in a bourse filing on Monday (Oct 9).
 
The 24 floors of the strata-titled office run from Levels 6 to 29 and have a gross floor area of 315,711 square feet (sq ft), according to Oxley. The four retail units across the ground and first floors have a net floor area of 9,569 sq ft.
 
Oxley Towers KLCC, a freehold property, comprises two hotel towers with residences, an office tower and a retail podium linking all the three towers. It is next to the iconic Petronas Twin Towers in the centre of the Malaysian capital.
 
The property is expected to receive its temporary occupation permit by next year.
 
Alliance Bank Malaysia&rsquo s plan to relocate its corporate office to the commercial centre of Kuala Lumpur will improve its visibility and branding, the company said.
 
With the office block earmarked as a &ldquo green-certified building&rdquo , Oxley added that this will enhance the bank&rsquo s sustainability journey.
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Alignment
Elite
07-Sep-2023 22:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes, for the reasons I wrote before, I am implying that Oxley, like other shares that have fallen a lot, may potentially be worth buying if one applies the investment logic of my fund manager acquantance.

At the risk of repeating myself again, a few key words I keep using are " may potentially" . I then posited that, for my fund manager acquantance to move from a view of being potentially worth buying to actually being woth buying, he would try to understand why the price has fallen so much. He (and I) would agree with you that consideration of fundamentals (taking a broad definition of that term) would be a major element in this process. That is what I alluded to when I mentioned " the right circumstances" in my intial post you quoted, and more explicitly referenced in my more recent post with respect to " justification" .

We are in the end in the same place (at least in general terms). What I was pointing out was that I thought you were mistating/oversimplfying my earlier post. Ultimately it' s not a big deal.         
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peppergal_87
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07-Sep-2023 21:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Well, you finished your earlier post with " This is not a recommendation to buy Oxley, just an explanation of why a share that has fallen a lot may potentially be worth buying." The logical conclusion is that you are implying that Oxley may potentially be worth buying because the share has fallen a lot.

Therefore, it behooves me to state the contrary position a share that has fallen a lot may reflect the market awakening to its worth and its price may fall even more as believers begin to lose hope and reality sets in.

But a more universal investment truth is that if a share has tanked tremendously, insiders should be voraciously buying up the shares outside the blackout period. Unless there are inexplicable reasons for them not to do so. And yes, buying a couple thousand of shares do not merit any attention.

Alignment      ( Date: 06-Sep-2023 22:36) Posted:

I don' t think you are reading what I am writing carefully enough.

I never wrote that my fund manager acquitance is suggesting buying stocks simply on the basis of the share price falling 75%. At the risk of repeating myself, what he does is he screens for such stocks, at which point he then tries to understand why.

I would have thought the purpose behind this was obvious, but for the avoidance of doubt I will spell it out. He does this because, if he thinks the share price decline is unjustified, then that may be a reason to buy the stock. Alternatively, if the share price decline is justified, but the justification is something that can be rectified, then again that may be a reason to buy the stock. if neither of the two possibilities above are the case, then he will leave alone.   

 

peppergal_87      ( Date: 03-Sep-2023 21:18) Posted:

Same logic to buy China Evergrande and Country Garden? Better look at fundamentals than simple logic of " share price that has fallen a lot may potentially be worth buying" .   

Another simple logic. If share price has fallen a lot, the major shareholders should be scooping up millions of shares after the blackout period
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Alignment
Elite
06-Sep-2023 22:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I don' t think you are reading what I am writing carefully enough.

I never wrote that my fund manager acquitance is suggesting buying stocks simply on the basis of the share price falling 75%. At the risk of repeating myself, what he does is he screens for such stocks, at which point he then tries to understand why.

I would have thought the purpose behind this was obvious, but for the avoidance of doubt I will spell it out. He does this because, if he thinks the share price decline is unjustified, then that may be a reason to buy the stock. Alternatively, if the share price decline is justified, but the justification is something that can be rectified, then again that may be a reason to buy the stock. if neither of the two possibilities above are the case, then he will leave alone.   

 

peppergal_87      ( Date: 03-Sep-2023 21:18) Posted:

Same logic to buy China Evergrande and Country Garden? Better look at fundamentals than simple logic of " share price that has fallen a lot may potentially be worth buying" .   

Another simple logic. If share price has fallen a lot, the major shareholders should be scooping up millions of shares after the blackout period?

Alignment      ( Date: 30-Aug-2023 10:11) Posted:

A fund manager specialising in fallen angel investing once said to me when I asked a similar question about why he screened for such stocks: (paraphrasing) " if a company' s share price falls 75% it' s worth looking at to understand why, because one thing you do know is that under the right circumstances this company' s share price can increase 300% given at some point that was what it was trading at" .

This is not a recommendation to buy Oxley, just an explanation of why a share that has fallen a lot may potentially be worth buying.

I also note the title of this particular forum topic which seems appropriate: " Is Oxley a good buy at CURRENT price?" (emphasis on current).
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Alignment
Elite
06-Sep-2023 19:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thank you for clarifying.

peppergal_87      ( Date: 03-Sep-2023 21:14) Posted:

Singapore property development projects are based on percentage of completion, so most of the revenues and profits have been recognised. What is remaining from TOP to CSC is the balance payments from buyers, so progress billings is more a reflection of remaining development project cashflow rather than profit recognition.

Overseas projects are a different matter, both from revenue recognition (P& L) and cashflow management. Would be interesting to see the actual liquidity from the overseas development projects.

Alignment      ( Date: 30-Aug-2023 00:24) Posted:

If you look at p10 of the 2H presentation, it states that there is still S$278m of " future progress billings" from the Singapore development projects.

I am not 100% sure how the accounting works, but it seems that for some of these developments there are further milestones for additional payments to be made and further revenue to be accounted for even after TOP has been reached e.g. perhaps getting a CSC.

 


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SujantoHenry
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06-Sep-2023 12:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Now .010 may not be it lowest. Oxley is having a share buyback to prevent its share price from falling further. If it is really undervalue, why is it the Directors themselves are not buying. DYODD

cloudy.mountain      ( Date: 30-Aug-2023 00:34) Posted:

actually why chase this stock? from $0.58 to now $0.10 

shareholder value has been wiped
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Secret_Squirrel
Elite
04-Sep-2023 11:10     
 
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Yells: "Stay curious but skeptical"
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 Alert Admin 		China 's real estate not only limited to Evergrande and Country Garden, the worse is yet to come. It will be far worse than Lehman Brothers. There are so many real estate developers in China, I have no doubt that China's bank and financial institution will also be very jialat as well.

peppergal_87      ( Date: 03-Sep-2023 21:18) Posted:

Same logic to buy China Evergrande and Country Garden? Better look at fundamentals than simple logic of " share price that has fallen a lot may potentially be worth buying" .   

Another simple logic. If share price has fallen a lot, the major shareholders should be scooping up millions of shares after the blackout period?

Alignment      ( Date: 30-Aug-2023 10:11) Posted:

A fund manager specialising in fallen angel investing once said to me when I asked a similar question about why he screened for such stocks: (paraphrasing) " if a company' s share price falls 75% it' s worth looking at to understand why, because one thing you do know is that under the right circumstances this company' s share price can increase 300% given at some point that was what it was trading at" .

This is not a recommendation to buy Oxley, just an explanation of why a share that has fallen a lot may potentially be worth buying.

I also note the title of this particular forum topic which seems appropriate: " Is Oxley a good buy at CURRENT price?" (emphasis on current).
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peppergal_87
Member
03-Sep-2023 21:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Same logic to buy China Evergrande and Country Garden? Better look at fundamentals than simple logic of " share price that has fallen a lot may potentially be worth buying" .   

Another simple logic. If share price has fallen a lot, the major shareholders should be scooping up millions of shares after the blackout period?

Alignment      ( Date: 30-Aug-2023 10:11) Posted:

A fund manager specialising in fallen angel investing once said to me when I asked a similar question about why he screened for such stocks: (paraphrasing) " if a company' s share price falls 75% it' s worth looking at to understand why, because one thing you do know is that under the right circumstances this company' s share price can increase 300% given at some point that was what it was trading at" .

This is not a recommendation to buy Oxley, just an explanation of why a share that has fallen a lot may potentially be worth buying.

I also note the title of this particular forum topic which seems appropriate: " Is Oxley a good buy at CURRENT price?" (emphasis on current).
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peppergal_87
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03-Sep-2023 21:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Singapore property development projects are based on percentage of completion, so most of the revenues and profits have been recognised. What is remaining from TOP to CSC is the balance payments from buyers, so progress billings is more a reflection of remaining development project cashflow rather than profit recognition.

Overseas projects are a different matter, both from revenue recognition (P& L) and cashflow management. Would be interesting to see the actual liquidity from the overseas development projects.

Alignment      ( Date: 30-Aug-2023 00:24) Posted:

If you look at p10 of the 2H presentation, it states that there is still S$278m of " future progress billings" from the Singapore development projects.

I am not 100% sure how the accounting works, but it seems that for some of these developments there are further milestones for additional payments to be made and further revenue to be accounted for even after TOP has been reached e.g. perhaps getting a CSC.

 

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Alignment
Elite
30-Aug-2023 10:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		A fund manager specialising in fallen angel investing once said to me when I asked a similar question about why he screened for such stocks: (paraphrasing) " if a company' s share price falls 75% it' s worth looking at to understand why, because one thing you do know is that under the right circumstances this company' s share price can increase 300% given at some point that was what it was trading at" .

This is not a recommendation to buy Oxley, just an explanation of why a share that has fallen a lot may potentially be worth buying.

I also note the title of this particular forum topic which seems appropriate: " Is Oxley a good buy at CURRENT price?" (emphasis on current).
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cloudy.mountain
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30-Aug-2023 00:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		actually why chase this stock? from $0.58 to now $0.10 

shareholder value has been wiped
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Alignment
Elite
30-Aug-2023 00:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If you look at p10 of the 2H presentation, it states that there is still S$278m of " future progress billings" from the Singapore development projects.

I am not 100% sure how the accounting works, but it seems that for some of these developments there are further milestones for additional payments to be made and further revenue to be accounted for even after TOP has been reached e.g. perhaps getting a CSC.

 
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FrancisLim
Elite
29-Aug-2023 21:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Page 31 of the financial statements, it mentions that Singapore exposure is not significant as TOP have been received, which means that the revenues have been recognised substantially to date?

It also mentions the Palm development in Cambodia has been completed.  But not the percentage of sales and the revenue to be recognised in 2 H?

Alignment      ( Date: 29-Aug-2023 17:39) Posted:

Actually I think the results were decent, in that they largely did what the company suggested in the 1H announcement would happen, in the event of which the company would be able to show it does not have a debt problem and hence the share price bounced up on the day given it was trading at distressed levels.

In particular, going back to p18 of the 1H results presentation, what the company predicted was for almost all the S$885m debt due in 2H23 to be repaid by proceeds from the Singaporean property sales which would be TOPed in 2H. What actually happened was not quite that - talking rough numbers it looks like about S$420m was paid down by such proceeds, whereas the remainder was rolled over another year with the debt already due then in FY24 to make a new total debt due in FY24 of S$576m. i.e. some of the Singapore proceeds were slower than expected and now due in FY24 rather than 2H23. That said, whether now or later it will happen, and even what has happened already has signficantly reduced the gearing ratio in 2H vs 1H. Further significant reduction is locked in over the next few years, via property sale cash crystallisation in both Singapore and overseas. This is actually to a large extent already derisked, albeit whether sufficiently to justify the share price trading at book value is questionable. With respect to overseas developments, again a significant amount of sales have already been signed - the main outstanding exposure is the KLCC development in KL where to date they appear to be doing well.   

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Alignment
Elite
29-Aug-2023 17:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Actually I think the results were decent, in that they largely did what the company suggested in the 1H announcement would happen, in the event of which the company would be able to show it does not have a debt problem and hence the share price bounced up on the day given it was trading at distressed levels.

In particular, going back to p18 of the 1H results presentation, what the company predicted was for almost all the S$885m debt due in 2H23 to be repaid by proceeds from the Singaporean property sales which would be TOPed in 2H. What actually happened was not quite that - talking rough numbers it looks like about S$420m was paid down by such proceeds, whereas the remainder was rolled over another year with the debt already due then in FY24 to make a new total debt due in FY24 of S$576m. i.e. some of the Singapore proceeds were slower than expected and now due in FY24 rather than 2H23. That said, whether now or later it will happen, and even what has happened already has signficantly reduced the gearing ratio in 2H vs 1H. Further significant reduction is locked in over the next few years, via property sale cash crystallisation in both Singapore and overseas. This is actually to a large extent already derisked, albeit whether sufficiently to justify the share price trading at book value is questionable. With respect to overseas developments, again a significant amount of sales have already been signed - the main outstanding exposure is the KLCC development in KL where to date they appear to be doing well.   
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