| Latest Forum Topics / Mapletree NAC Tr |
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Mapletree s China-focused REIT IPO nearly 30 times
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PhillipTan
Supreme |
04-Jan-2022 10:48
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Always pick Option 2 Only opt for Option 1 if the stock price of MCT goes above $2, which is seemingly unlikely... Alternatively, if you are of the opinion that MCT will suddenly go up above $2 It would be better to buy MCT stocks now and then choose Option 1 Those MCT stocks that you buy below $2, you may either keep or sell for a quick profit   |
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chengwh1
Elite |
03-Jan-2022 17:41
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Let' s say I have the following scenario.  1) I currently own 42700 units of MNACT. 42700 x $0.03426 dpu for 1HFY21/22 = $1462.90 collected for 1HFY21/22. 2) I do not own any MCT units. Based on proforma calculation for 1HFY21/22 post-merging, let' s assume the dpu becomes $0.04390 + 7.9% = $0.04740. 3) I am more keen in the total dividend that I earn. 4) I care for my holding price too, but I would not mind the price moving sideways if my dpu keeps growing. 5) I will use back the proforma assumption to process the future events. If I take Option 2 : the MCT units that I would garner would be 42700 x 0.5963 = 25462 units. And 25462 units x $0.04740 = $1206.90 that I would be collecting for 1HFY21/22 proforma-wise. MNACT dividend ($1462.90) - Proforma MCT dividend ($1206.90) = $256.00 less ' IF I took the dpu' from MCT instead of MNACT. If I take Option 1 :    the MCT units that I would garner would be 42700 x 0.5009 = 21388 units. And 21388 units x $0.04740 = $1013.79 that I would be collecting for 1HFY21/22 proforma-wise. MNACT dividend ($1462.90) - Proforma MCT dividend ($1013.79) = $449.11 less ' IF I took the dpu' from MCT instead of MNACT. But, let us not forget that for Option 1 : I would also receive 42700 units x $0.1912 = $8164.24.  Just a meaningful thought : $8164.24 divided by $449.11 = 18, and this ' 18' means 18 semi-annuals of ' short payouts' can be covered. Option 1 would be better than Option 2 if the price of MPACT does not go below $2.00 after the merger event. |
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ttworld
Member |
03-Jan-2022 13:24
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thx!
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nott1965
Veteran |
03-Jan-2022 12:02
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Go in at 1.15 means you are just paying MCT at 1.915. MCT is trading at 1,93 now
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ttworld
Member |
03-Jan-2022 08:53
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NAC can still go in at $1.15? Any guru can advise? |
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JustOnce
Member |
03-Jan-2022 08:35
Yells: "Learning to invest" |
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Whilst my rookie analysis is point in time, your assumptions that MNACT will perform better and MCT will perform worst OR that 1+1> 2 is pure speculations because (1) its merging, so no one will be able to tell true or false if standalone they do better or worst (2) the repeated claims on HK Riots on the property prices/NAC performance as the only reason for NAC performance - failing to acknowledge geopolitical risks are very real and as such it needs to be considered as part of investment - as an investor, I personally will not be investing further in HK due to various reasons. As I mentioned in one of the earlier post, both REITs have a chance to grow. And looking at NAC, focus on overseas REITs, there are other contenders in that arena that did better than NAC over the same period, so as a MCT holder, I would like the management company to use the capital for better gain.   
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cmengchan
Senior |
01-Jan-2022 17:24
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Smaller REITS will be at disadvantage, so have no choice but to seek scale and size. So merger is a quite way. I can see Keppel and CDL fighting to get the SPH REIT assets. I think smaller ones left behind will be Starhill, Lendlease ... as number of local retail and commercial assets are very limited. These smaller ones will also be forced to do something. I wonder if Fraser group will merge the Centerpoint retail and the sister commercial REITS too... time will tell. | |||||||||||
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bigbrother33
Senior |
01-Jan-2022 15:44
Yells: "what can't kill you will make you stronger!" |
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I love coffee shop talks...hahahah...well done bro! Vested in both C and M also![]()
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Lobster
Elite |
01-Jan-2022 15:25
Yells: "Even Adam Khoo believes in the Black Market!" |
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Let me try to defuse the heated situation here abit by telling some coffee shop stories..... Actually the coffee shop uncles were not wrong in " speculating" that the mega corporate development (MPACT) will take place in 2022, because by the time the deal is done it is 2022. When I first heard of it I thought it would be MIT and MLT merging into MILT. And I asked the uncles, how come not? They shot back and said who said why not? Because this may very well be next on the card. For all we know, they may be discussing RIGHT NOW! Because according to their coffee shop info, in the case of MPACT, the proposal discussions did not start on 28 Dec.... according to one uncles lawyer son, it actually started way back in April... that time, if you go back and check, it stirred the price abit.... then it cooled down as no news came out in the next few months... Now, as for MIT and MLT merging into MILT, it is not a question of " whether" but more of " when" ... because it makes sense to merge the two together since many of their business and assets portfolios overlap. And silly to have two different mangers who are wholly owned subsidiaries of the sponsor managing them. Uncles said, if CICT can, why MILT cannot? Merging them will rival that of CICT in terms of assets portfolio value ($$19bil vs $21.4 bil) and market cap, and propelling it into the top league in the Asia Pacidic arena, giving them more leverage in any negotiations. In fact their combined number of properties will beat CICT hands down, and it will have a much wider geographical reach than CICT. In fact (I was told, don' t know if it' s true) both sets of management have offices in the same building in MBC, same floor some more, same as the sponsor, and see each other, eat together in the same canteen every day! Mad, to waste unnecessary resources and expenses. vested in both CICT, and MILT (MIT & MLT). Pdyohwadfmb!!!
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Starship
Supreme |
01-Jan-2022 11:01
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bystander1965
Supreme |
01-Jan-2022 06:13
Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD" |
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😂 childish. NVM. | |||||||||||
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cloudy.mountain
Member |
01-Jan-2022 00:04
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just go and read the annnouncement. PPT deck number 5 Joint Presentation slide 24. 17% premium! i' m not even lying. THAT' S WHY IT' S ONLY A GOOD DEAL FOR MAGIC. don' t make it sound like it' s bad. if it is you go ahead and vote it down. 
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bystander1965
Supreme |
31-Dec-2021 23:46
Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD" |
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Mnact latest nav is 1.19xx which is what MCT pays to get. What premium are you talking about? It's like your house is valued at 1mil would you be happy to sell for 900k? I bet you won't even if it's sold at 1mil.
Plus the mnact nav was reduced in the latest exercise for this merger talk. Go figure the reason. As for dpu mnact dpu is at its lowest at this point while MCT dpu is at its highest now in years. Also mnact is on the verge of recovering. So go work out the math again.
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cloudy.mountain
Member |
31-Dec-2021 21:59
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this has got to be the most laughable reasoning. there is a reason why MCT trades at a price where dividend yield is lower. it' s because people accord a premium to its share price given that its SG pure play reit. there is lesser uncertainty to its performance (as locals can always see how its properties are performing) and also no forex risk. the bigger losers are actually the unitholders of MCT and not MAGIC. why MCT unitholders are losing out? a simple reason. MCT is paying 17% premium for MAGIC' s portfolio. just read the slides in the announcement.  8.9% accretion to the distribution of MCT is also a masterclass in distortion of perspective. the more accurate comparison should have been the pre-covid distribution rather than the 8.55 cents distribution in FY2021 which was heavily hit by heightened alert and all sorts of COVID measures.
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bystander1965
Supreme |
31-Dec-2021 17:33
Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD" |
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It' s the same with CMT/CCT merger. CMT SH complained they had the raw deal, and CCT SH the same. Haha. I didn' t have either due to their concentration in SG. So when CMT dropped to a level I found attractive, I went in even though CCT was the one that would distribute cash. After that I got out when it bounced up after the merger.  
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bystander1965
Supreme |
31-Dec-2021 17:25
Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD" |
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For me I will do the other way round. If MCT drops to an irresitable level, I will buy them instead. Let' s see. And after that hopefully the merger will go ahead. Otherwise I will be stuck with a SG-only reit, which while I am ok with but preferably not.
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bystander1965
Supreme |
31-Dec-2021 17:21
Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD" |
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Like I said, you are looking from a trader' s pov not investor. That is you are only looking at 1 point in time, at the merger point presumably sometime in Jun 2022. If you look at my earlier post, I already said ST, MNACT SH gains, MCT' s lose most likely. BTW, the yield of MNACT you are quoting now is low because of HK riot and Covid. Its normal DPU is normally on 7+c. MCT did well during COVID thanks to SG effort plus government handouts. Also, you have not factored in MNACT potential appreciation. Going forward, I believe MNACT will recover and perform even better on its own. Just that it may not have as much expansion as it would like to due to financial. Granted MCT will also (let' s look at historical high then, MCT 2.4+ adjusted or non-adjusted?  MNACT 1.5+ non-adjusted). So if you are taking a longer term view, MCT benefits more eventually. But for MNACT hopefully the merger is 1+1 > 2, then consolation there. Come Monday, most likely MCT will drop, MNACT will go up a bit. There has been a lot of short interests on MNACT and MCT as well I think. So MNACT short covering, MCT continuing short? So if you are in for ST, maybe go with your analysis, go sapu MNACT? Last indication is it will open at 1.15. Still have 4+ cents to make, plus conversion to MCT after the merger. ![]()  
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Lobster
Elite |
31-Dec-2021 15:00
Yells: "Even Adam Khoo believes in the Black Market!" |
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While the bros here are hammering it out on which is the better deal, I will stay out here for a while and have my say later.... but if what coffee shop uncles " speculate" pre announcement, that NAC people will benefit more from the deal, it would certainly reflect in the prices come Monday. And I think MCT may take a hit, but again it will present a good opportunity... don' t forget it' s historic high was $2.48 just before pandemic, and this deal will increase its %yield based on current price from 4.5-4.8% to something like between 5 to 5.5%... Good luck vested.Pdyohwadfmb  |
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JustOnce
Member |
31-Dec-2021 13:30
Yells: "Learning to invest" |
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Thansk for pointing that out. I adjusted my formula, but still the same, NAC unitholder is much better off (all things being equal/constant) ----------- NAC is definitely looks better of. someone please check my math.  assuming I invested $10K before the merger,
The fees will change from 0.25% total assets + 4% net NPI to 10% distributable income + 25% YOY growth in DPU. From last annual report, MCT paid total of 37,6M as management fees in the new fees structure, assuming the same annual report the management fees would be, (314.7M distributable income x 10%) + ((9.49 - (9.49/1.186)) YOY DPU growth x 3.3M issued units = 36.4M    
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fatpig
Senior |
31-Dec-2021 12:58
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Beside DPU and yield.  If the market is " always right" than MCT is more valuable in the view of Investors.          NAC Price//NAV = 0.89 MCT Price/NAV = 1.16 |
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