[NEW YORK] US stocks rebounded on Wednesday from five straight sessions of losses after strong private sector jobs data and as minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting reassured investors the bank was in no hurry to start raising interest rates.

The S& P 500 rose 1.2 per cent, its biggest daily percentage gain in about two weeks, retracing some of its 4.2 per cent loss over the previous five sessions tied to concerns over plunging oil prices and global economic weakness.

According to minutes of the Fed' s December meeting, the central bank pressed ahead with plans to begin raising interest rates later this year, though Fed officials said they could be " patient" in deciding when to begin the process. " The US continues to be the strongest region in the globe right now, and I think markets are comforted that rates aren' t going to be going up anytime soon," said Bob Landry, portfolio manager at USAA Investment Management Co in San Antonio, Texas.

Stocks began the day in positive territory after data showed US private employers added more jobs last month than expected.

The news came ahead of Friday' s more widely watched US non-farm payrolls report for December.

Adding to the upbeat tone, some investors are betting the first negative inflation in the euro zone since 2009 will trigger a long-awaited move from the European Central Bank to begin to print money.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 212.88 points, or 1.23 per cent, to 17,584.52, the S& P 500 gained 23.29 points, or 1.16 per cent, to 2,025.9 and the Nasdaq Composite added 57.73 points, or 1.26 per cent, to 4,650.47.

Retailer shares jumped. JC Penney shares surged 20.3 per cent to US$7.89, a day after the department store operator said same-store sales rose 3.7 per cent in November and December.

December same-store sales figures are due this week from more than 60 companies. The S& P retail index gained 2.1 per cent.

Shares of Dick' s Sporting Goods Inc jumped 11.7 per cent to US$55.01. People familiar with the matter said the company is holding early-stage conversations with a handful of buyout firms about going private.

Housing shares were also among the day' s biggest gainers, up 2.3 per cent. Bloomberg reported US President Barack Obama was set to announce a reduction of Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance premiums. Shares of D.R. Horton rose 5.1 per cent to US$25.35.

Biotech shares also bounced back, with the Nasdaq Biotech Index jumping 3.6 per cent after falling 1.7 per cent in the previous session.

About 7.1 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, above the 6.2 billion average for the last five sessions, according to BATS Global Markets.

NYSE advancers outnumbered decliners 2,355 to 737, for a 3.20-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq, 1,858 issues rose and 876 fell, for a 2.12-to-1 ratio.

The S& P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 65 new lows.

 

[NEW YORK] US stocks ended lower for a fifth session on Tuesday as data showed slower growth in the US service sector and oil prices fell further.

The S& P 500' s losing streak was its longest in about 13 months, but the index ended off the day' s lows, having fallen as much as 1.4 per cent earlier, at one point breaking below the 2,000 level for the first time since Dec 17.

Data on Tuesday pointed to slowing growth in the fourth quarter. The pace of expansion in services moderated in December and new orders for manufactured goods fell for a fourth consecutive month in November.

The S& P 500 is down 4.2 per cent for the last five sessions, with the Dow and S& P 500 suffering on Monday their biggest drops since early October.

Among the day' s biggest drags, the S& P energy sector fell 1.3 per cent as oil prices slid further on mounting worries about a supply glut. US crude settled at US$47.93 a barrel, down 4.2 per cent on the day. Shares of energy names tumbled, including Southwestern Energy, down 5 per cent at US$24.71, as brokerages continued to cut price targets. " It seems to be about oil prices. The big debate out there is what does it mean and is there this massive global economic slowdown," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp in Chicago. " But besides that, economic news has been modestly disappointing," he said.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 130.01 points, or 0.74 per cent, to 17,371.64, the S& P 500 lost 17.97 points, or 0.89 per cent, to 2,002.61 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 59.84 points, or 1.29 per cent, to 4,592.74.

An election in Greece, which may trigger its exit from the euro zone, is about three weeks away, increasing the difficulty for the European Central Bank to move towards quantitative easing as it attempts to stabilize the region' s economy.

Among gainers, AOL Inc shares rose 3.4 per cent to US$46.25 a day after a report that Verizon Communications approached AOL about a potential acquisition or joint venture.

About 8.3 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, above the 5.5 billion average for the last five sessions, according to BATS Global Markets.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 2,076 to 1,011, for a 2.05-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq, 2,117 issues fell and 657 advanced for a 3.22-to-1 ratio favoring decliners.

The S& P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 15 new lows the Nasdaq Composite recorded 38 new highs and 73 new lows.

 

[NEW YORK] Energy sector stocks led a broad selloff on Wall Street on Monday as crude prices fell to fresh 5-1/2 year lows and a strong dollar also weighed on other commodities.

Crude oil futures prices dropped to their lowest since May 2009 amid a global supply glut and lackluster demand. Russia' s oil output hit a post-Soviet high last year, and Iraq' s oil exports in December were highest since 1980.

US crude dipped below US$50 a barrel for the first time since April 2009 and Brent fell 6 percent.

The broad selloff in stocks is a result of traders knowing where they don' t want to be invested before identifying the next buying opportunity, according to Gordon Charlop, a managing director at Rosenblatt Securities in New York. " There is a lot to digest right now," he said regarding the side effects of the trampling of oil prices.

 

Aside from the positive effect it has on consumers, traders are figuring out where the plunge in energy could be negative for other sectors of the market.

The strength in the US currency is putting even more pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. A measure of the greenback against a basket of major currencies hit its highest since December 2005. " Multinationals will have their earnings decreased if they aren' t fully hedged," said Rick Meckler, president of LibertyView Capital Management in Jersey City.

At 1:11PM the Dow Jones industrial average fell 312.54 points, or 1.75 per cent, to 17,520.45, the S& P 500 lost 35.76 points, or 1.74 per cent, to 2,022.44 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 66.01 points, or 1.4 per cent, to 4,660.80.

The S& P 500 energy sector was down 4.25 per cent, on track for its largest daily percentage decline since November 28. It fell almost 20 per cent in the second half of last year. The health sector, the S& P' s best performer on Monday was down 0.47 per cent.

The S& P' s worst performers were Denbury Resources Inc which fell 10 per cent, and Noble Energy, down 9.8 per cent in afternoon trade.

One bright spot was Gilead Sciences Inc. Shares rose 2.4 per cent after CNBC reported CVS Health Corp, one of the largest US managers of drug benefits, will give Gilead' s hepatitis C treatment preferred status and cover a competing treatment from AbbVie Inc only as an exception. AbbVie shares lost 2.3 per cent.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE 2,411 to 659, for a 3.66-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq, 1,784 issues fell and 926 advanced, for a 1.93-to-1 ratio.

The S& P 500 was posting 5 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows the Nasdaq Composite was recording 43 new highs and 25 new lows.

 

Here are several stocks on watch on Monday morning:

MidasHoldings: Its shares surged 24 per cent on Friday. In response to the Singapore Exchange' s query on unusual trading activity, Midas said it had no knowledge of any development that could have affected its share price. A trade with caution advisory was subsequently issued.

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Unionmet (Singapore): The company planned to sell its wholly-owned subsidiary, Liuzhou Union Zinc Industry, for S$4.5 million. Since 2011, Liuzhou Union Zinc has been loss making. Management efforts to turn the subsidiary around over the past few months have also been unsuccessful.

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Elektromotive: The company on Friday announced the change in interest of its substantial shareholder, Tan Choon Wee, who is also the executive director and chairman of its investment committee. Mr Tan oversees the group' s investment and acquisition activities.

Artivision: It has requested a trading halt pending the release of an announcement.

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Blumont Group, Annica Holdings: Their counters rose steeply on Friday. There had been no developments recently for the heavily punted stocks.

 

[NEW YORK] Oil prices rose modestly from a five-year low on Tuesday, but analysts said market sentiment remains focused on excess supply and weak demand.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose 51 US cents to US$54.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

European benchmark Brent oil for February delivery rose two cents to US$57.90 a barrel in London.

Gene McGillian, broker and analyst at Tradition Energy, said Tuesday' s gain reflected that the market had been " overextended" after Monday' s drop.

Crude prices have fallen about 50 per cent since June, with the losses accelerating following the November 27 meeting of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at which the cartel declined to cut output in response to lower prices.

" The market continues to try to adjust to that monumental change in policy" in OPEC, Mr McGillian said.

" We didn' t even trade above US$55 today," Mr McGillian said. " The market continues to march lower from excess supplies and limited fuel demand."

 

[NEW YORK] Wall Street stocks on Tuesday finished lower, following European markets downward after political turmoil in Greece revived worries about the eurozone.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 55.16 points (0.31 per cent) to fall below 18,000 at 17,983.07.

The broad-based S& P 500 dropped 10.22 (0.49 per cent) to 2,080.35, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index fell 29.47 (0.61 per cent) to 4,777.44.

Equity markets in Britain, France and Germany each fell more than 1.2 per cent after Greece' s Prime Minister said a snap election for president planned for January 25 would determine whether the country leaves the eurozone.

US consumer confidence rose in December, while home-price increases were more modest in October, data showed.

Analysts said trade was limited ahead of Thursday' s New Years holiday.

" Basically, the volume is light and there is no specific theme that is driving the stock market," said Hugh Johnson of Hugh Johnson Advisors.

" It' s more or less just trend-less and volatile. I wouldn' t attach much significance to what' s going on today." Civeo, which provides workforce accommodations to oil and natural resources companies in Canada and Australia, sank 52.6 per cent, citing the weak oil-investment environment. Civeo projected 2015 revenues of US$540-US$600 million, much below the US$817 million forecast by analysts.

Real-estate investment trust American Realty Capital Properties rose 7.4 per cent after activist investor Corvex Management disclosed a 7.1 per cent stake in the company and said it would press for changes to boost shareholder return.

Bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to 2.19 per cent from 2.21 per cent Monday, while the 30-year dipped to 2.76 per cent from 2.78 per cent. Bond prices and yields move inversely.

 

SINGAPORE brokers will announce and explain decisions to impose trading restrictions beginning Dec 31, the Securities Association of Singapore (SAS) announced on Tuesday.

The links to each broker' s trading restriction disclosures are listed on the SAS website at http://thesas.org.sg/announcement-on-trading-services.html

Each of the nine SAS member houses will announce on its respective website when and why it has tightened its trading policy on any Singapore-listed stock. The firms were not required to disclose that information previously, and most distributed that information only to their own traders.

The change comes in the wake of an October 2013 sell-off in penny stocks, which came about shortly after certain trading houses imposed restrictions on a handful of stocks. The Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Singapore Exchange began a wide-ranging consultation on various regulatory and market-practice changes in February 2014, and tasked SAS to develop a set of industry guidelines to enhance the transparency of trading restrictions.

 

[HONG KONG] Asian markets slipped on Tuesday following the previous day' s healthy gains, while the euro struggled against the dollar as Greece plunged back into crisis, rekindling fears of a possible exit from the eurozone.

With investors winding down for the end of the year, Wall Street provided a mixed lead, although the S& P 500 topped out at a new record high.

Oil prices ticked up slightly but remain stuck near five-year troughs as ongoing worries about oversupply combine with concerns over the global economic outlook.

Tokyo fell 0.17 per cent, Hong Kong lost 0.19 per cent, Sydney shed 0.50 per cent, and Seoul eased 0.36 per cent and Shanghai gave up 0.41 per cent.

Profit-takers moved in after Monday' s gains that came on the back of strong US economic growth data, while analysts said thin volumes also contributed to the sell-off.

Adding downward pressure was news that Greek Prime Minister Antonio Samaras had called a general election provisionally for January 25 after lawmakers failed in a third attempt to choose a new president.

There are fears that the anti-austerity, far-left Syriza party could win and roll back measures required under the IMF-EU bailout of the country, in turn further weakening the eurozone economy.

" This is the worst-case scenario," Jan Techau, director of the Carnegie Europe think-tank based in Brussels, told AFP. " The uncertainty is a stark reminder the crisis is not over." The events in Greece raise concerns of a return to the crisis of 2010 when the country, unable to service its debts and facing an exit from the eurozone, was forced into taking handouts from the IMF and European Union.

Holger Schmieding of Berenberg Bank said there was " a risk of around 30 per cent that Greece may descend into a new deep crisis" .

The euro, which was already under pressure owing to the eurozone' s stuttering economy, was at levels against the dollar not seen since mid-2012.

In early trade it bought US$1.2150, compared with US$1.2153 in New York Monday, while it was also at 146.51 yen, against 146.65 yen.

The dollar fetched 120.50 yen, compared with 120.66 yen in US trade.

On Wall Street the S& P 500 gained 0.10 per cent to mark a second successive record close, but the Dow snapped a seven-session winning streak by dipping 0.08 percent. The Nasdaq was virtually unchanged.

Oil prices edged up. West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose 15 cents to US$53.76 while Brent crude for February gained 14 cents to $58.02 in mid-morning trade.

WTI closed down US$1.12 to US$53.61 in New York while Brent fell 57 US cents in London to US$57.88. Both contracts last traded at those levels in May 2009.

Analysts predicted further bearishness owing to rising US production despite a global supply glut.

" We are seeing light volumes in Asian trading... oil prices have once again touched new lows over longer term concerns about US production levels," Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, told AFP.

Gold was at US$1,186.37 an ounce, compared with US$1,193.84 Monday.

 

[SINGAPORE] Oil prices rose in Asia on Monday as fresh violence in Libya stoked concerns about possible supply disruptions, analysts said.

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose 46 cents to US$55.19 while Brent crude for February gained 35 cents to US$59.80 in late-afternoon trade.

Daniel Ang, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore, said investors are showing concern as the " armed conflict in Libya is affecting crude oil flows" .

Forces loyal to Libya' s internationally recognised government on Sunday carried out air strikes against Islamist militia following attacks on the country' s crucial Al-Sidra oil export terminal.

The Fajr Libya (Libya Dawn) group has been been trying to take Al-Sidra and the nearby Ras Lanuf terminal since Thursday when it killed at least 22 soldiers in a surprise attack by speedboat.

Seven oil storage tanks at Al-Sidra were set on fire as a result of the fighting.

On Sunday firefighters managed to extinguish four of the fires, an oil official said.

Since fresh clashes first erupted around the export terminals on December 13, Libya' s oil production has dropped to fewer than 350,000 barrels per day compared with 800,000 previously, industry experts say.

More than three years after dictator Moamer Kadhafi was toppled, Libya is awash with weapons and powerful militias, and has rival parliaments and governments.

Mr Ang said oil prices will " continue to trade range-bound" with no major fluctuations expected ahead of the New Year holiday.

With few other leads in the market this week, US crude stockpiles data to be released on Wednesday will be closely watched, he added.

 

[HONG KONG] Hong Kong shares jumped 1.48 per cent at the open Monday as investors returned from the Christmas break to another record close on Wall Street

and news that China had unveiled fresh measures to boost the economy.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index added 345.19 points to 23,694.53 in the first few minutes of trade.

 

WALL STREET INSIGHT

LAST week, the " Santa Claus" rally that carried major US stock indexes to records continued, but gains were unevenly distributed as traders adjusted their positions.

Nations and industries that were weighed down by energy costs will see growth accelerate, while the abrupt end of an oil bonanza is sure to leave some sectors and countries in crisis. The overarching question for the stockmarket outlook is whether the impact of lower oil prices on the global economy in general, on the US economy in particular, and on the financial system is positive or negative.

Oil prices neared their lowest level since the pits of the recession, finishing the week below US$55 a barrel in New York trading.

Most economists and bankers see the net effect on the global economy as a positive. In a December speech, Dallas Federal Reserve president Richard Fisher said that oil exporters such as Mexico, which had taken the opportunity to diversify their economies when interest rates were low and oil prices were high, should continue to thrive. Those exporters, such as Brazil and Russia, which put all their eggs in the commodities basket, will certainly feel the effects, Mr Fisher said.

One of the most negative factors for global growth this year was the sputtering of the Chinese economic juggernaut. For years, analysts had wondered at the consistently sky-high growth of China. In a relatively short period in world historical terms, the world' s most populous nation had gone from a closed communist society to a bustling marketplace that many economists predicted would soon eclipse the US as the world' s economic leader.

In 2014, however, a new Chinese government repeatedly tried to rein in growth in areas where the decades of growth had led to speculative excess, particularly in the real estate markets. While industrial production still advanced at an enviable pace, it failed to match the prodigious rates to which China watchers have become accustomed.

China is one of the world' s largest oil importers and the drop in prices could inspire a return to its former economic glory.

In the US, the calculus is more complex. The oil industry was, in large part, the engine that drove the unemployment rate lower in the last five years, said Oliver Pursche, president of money manager Gary Goldberg Financial Services.

Other strategists argue that the negative effect on jobs and capital investment will be more than offset by the impact on household finances in the US. Fuel prices in many areas have fallen by more than one third, and that has almost immediately translated into higher retail sales.

Analysts at brokerage Morgan Stanley said in a research note: " This gasoline-fed fire should keep personal consumption spending expanding at a 31/4 per cent pace in this and the next quarter and is in line with our outlook that 2015 shapes up to be the strongest year for household spending since 2006."

All evidence points to a boost from the gas-price retreat on sales during the holiday-shopping season. There was one unfortunate twist for conventional retailers, however.

After years of buying some gifts online and others at malls, many US consumers appear to have spurned malls altogether. Amazon.com said that it received about twice as many orders through its mobile app as last year, growth that almost certainly came at the expense of mall-based retailers. United Parcel Service attributed an anticipated rise in returns this year to the fact that more Americans are shopping online where it' s harder to make a final judgement on a product' s suitability.

Americans still spend billions of dollars at Walmart and competing stores. But the retail business has become cut-throat and marquee stores such as Sears have been brought to their knees.

Drillers such as Continental Resources, which is active in the Bakken Shale in North Dakota, are cutting budgets and losing share value because of the high cost of production in those fields. One Texas oilman said that many of his contacts in North Dakota are planning to drastically reduce their drilling activity.

Even as rigs are idled, however, production on the Bakken fields and in Eagle Ford in South Texas remains prolific. That' s because of thousands of wells about to come on line that were drilled when the price was at US$100 a barrel or more and the rig count was near a record high, said the Texas oilman.

To make matters worse for stressed domestic drillers, the price of natural gas is wallowing at a two-year low, hurt by mid-winter temperatures across most of the US that are bordering on the balmy. This December is one of the warmest in 50 years. Natural-gas prices are down 33 per cent since their November highs, with little relief in sight given forecasts of more warm weather.

Risks of a financial crisis triggered by defaults by oil-exporting nations or domestic producers that finance operations with junk bonds are still an issue, according to some analysts.

The oil price plunge is likely to change the behaviour of stock investors, too, said analysts at brokerage Goldman Sachs in a research note. After years of steadily growing earnings and rising " price-to-earnings" ratios, earnings growth in many industries could pick up dramatically because of dropping energy costs while the ratios used to value stocks could flatten out.

All in all, most strategists see a strong finish to the year for the stock market, excluding the energy sector, and a positive start to 2015.

 

Singapore

SINGAPORE' S headline inflation fell into negative territory in November, dropping to -0.3 per cent from 0.1 per cent in October. Although this marks the country' s first technical deflation in five years, economists described the below-zero figure as a blip, and do not expect it to last for long.

" We shouldn' t be too quick to cry ' deflation,' since deflation needs to be established as a trend, and not as a mere data point," said Mizuho economist Vishnu Varathan.

" Core inflation, while easing, is still stable at 1.5 per cent, so deflation expectations just aren' t there. The labour market remains fairly tight as well, and wage pressures are going to continue."

Economists from DBS and UOB were also reluctant to use the d-word, since last month' s fall in consumer prices was largely due to base effects associated with fluctuations in car Certificate of Entitlement (COE) premiums - and not because of a lack of demand.

Said DBS economist Irvin Seah: " It' s more accurate to call this disinflation, because we' re not seeing a prolonged period of price declines. November was only one month, and other economic indicators - our unemployment rate, our growth rate - are still doing alright."

According to some analysts' estimates, private road transport costs - which declined by 7 per cent after October' s 5.6 per cent decrease - took off as much as one percentage point from November' s headline figure.

Said UOB economist Francis Tan: " With prices contracting for the first time since December 2009, people may start to worry about deflationary spirals. But they shouldn' t put too much wait on this negative number... Maybe we' ll see one more month under zero, but I don' t see this continuing into 2015. In fact, prices could trend higher when base effects wear off and oil prices go back up."

Mr Seah thinks headline inflation will rise above one per cent in Q2 2015, and stay above 2 per cent in the second half of next year.

November' s showing follows five consecutive months of disinflation - where prices were still rising, just at a slower pace - so economists had already been expecting a negative headline inflation figure. The median forecast of 13 economists polled by Bloomberg before the Department of Statistics (DoS) released the data on Tuesday was -0.2 per cent.

Except for food, price increases for other major categories eased in November. Accommodation costs were 1.2 per cent lower due to the soft housing rental market, extending the one per cent correction in October. Services inflation moderated to 1.4 per cent from 1.7 per cent given lower holiday travel costs, and a smaller rise in household services costs and medical treatment fees.

But food inflation rose to 2.9 per cent last month from 2.8 per cent a month earlier, amid more expensive fruits, vegetables, and prepared meals.

Core inflation - which excludes the costs of accommodation and private road transport - eased from 1.7 per cent in October to 1.5 per cent in November - the lowest figure since April last year. This was mainly due to a smaller increase in services fees.

While the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) reiterated in joint comments their 2015 inflation forecasts (headline at 0.5-1.5 per cent and core at 2-3 per cent), they cautioned that these could come in slightly lower " should global oil prices be sustained at current low levels" .

Even though Stanchart economist Jeff Ng and Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng see a chance for monetary policy easing in 2015, they qualify that core inflation would have to come down quite a bit for that to happen. Said Mr Kit: " Core hovered at or below 1-1.5 per cent in 2005, H1 2007, and much of 2013, but MAS did not ease ... Greater conviction over easing would require cracks in the tight labour market, and further reduction in inflation expectations."

Most economists see that as a distant spectre for now. Said Mizuho' s Mr Varathan: " I suspect the on-the-ground perception of inflation doesn' t gel with November' s (negative figure). In fact, unless you' re looking to buy a house or car right now, your view is likely to be slightly inflationary considering the risks to food prices... You can go home singing about deflation all you want, but if you' re betting on getting a full-sized prata for 50 cents, it' s just not happening, mate."