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EZRA HOLDINGS - RED HOT NEWS
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bigcat
Member |
01-Jun-2015 03:40
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If the right issue is priced at 10cts, perhaps can play along with the management - hoot ah. Any over allotment can pick up as well.
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Jimmykohkk
Master |
01-Jun-2015 00:24
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u are right.. if the NTA is 133.48 US cents, then the right issue shd be priced at least at 100 cents to reflect the fundamental  but becos usually  rights are priced at 10 to 30% discount  to the share price.  So in this case, the share price of 39 cents vs NTA of 133.48 US cents is an headache for the management. Price too low, shareholders will be angry as it will disadvantage them since the share price will probably drop due to the dilutive effect of a low subscrption price pulling down the NTA. Price too high, shareholders will also be angry too because it means they have to pay more for the right shares. This case very interesting to watch. I think during the EGM will have alot of " arguments" or questions from the small investors ... But Tuesday will be an indication of how the share price will go.... let see if the BBs decide to push the share price down in order to justify  a low right price or push the share price up in order to justify a high right price :)      
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Jun-2015 00:01
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What I can't appreciate if the valuation of asset in Ezra. The NTA at half year reporting was 133.48 US cents at Group level and 92.75 US cents at Company level ! Is that expected to be drastically reduced in Q3 but don't see any factor that may give rise to that for now. How low they want to price RIghts below NTA given that the current price may be grossly suppressed. The only reason for the delay of setting a price for the Rights is probably due to the mgmt's belief that the current price should be significantly higher than it is now or any significant discounts being offered will only make the current share price moves lower to near the price of the Rights which may in turn face potential rejection of the motion at EGM.
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Jimmykohkk
Master |
31-May-2015 23:58
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The share price of Ezra will depends on how much the price the rights issue. assuming the NTA is 30 cents. Let say now the share price is 39 cents. IF they price the rights at  5 cents,  which is much lower than NTA of  30 cents, it means it will pull down the NTA by a huge amount, thus the share price will tank. Basically it means the ex right price will be  39 (your original share)  + (5 + 5) [the 2 right share u subscribe)  / 3  =  16.3 cents. Compared to current trading price of 39 cents,  so the share price will tank   If the price the rights at $1, which is much higher than NTA of 30 cents, it means it will pull up the NTA by a huge amount, thus share price will rocket Basically it means ex right price will be 39 + $1 + $1 / 3 = 79 cents, compared to current trading price of 39cents, so share price will rocket. But pricing at $1, i think no one  dares to  subscribe the right shares. :) Pricing too low will make the share price tank. Pricing too high will make the rights unattractive. So I think is better to wait and see how much they price their rights ... tio bo?? unless u betting they are going to price their rights at a high price. But in this type of market conditions, i doubt they will leh..          
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Lucky03
Elite |
31-May-2015 23:43
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Sorry, I meant aggregate rather than NTA per share. Assuming shareholders subscribed in full, he will get more shares so while the NTA per share is lower, the overall asset is healthier so long the company doesn't repot loss and deplet the asset and hence shareholders will just own 'more values' of a company with the cash to be injected. I'm not a professional economist or financial expert and I'm looking at it from a simple view so I may not be able to explain very well.
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Jimmykohkk
Master |
31-May-2015 23:31
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Err.... NTA not affected?? Depends on how much they price their rights issue right? Assuming NTA to be 30 cents now... If they say 2 for 1 rights at an issue price of 1 cents.. wouldn' t it mean NTA will be much lowered becos for a much larger number of shares (from 1000000 to 3000000 lots), but the cash received is only 1 cents / share? If they say 2 for 1 rights at an issue price of $10, wouldn' t i mean NTA will be much higher becos $10 / share is received? Can explain why NTA is the same? thanks  
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Lucky03
Elite |
31-May-2015 23:25
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Placement is to 'outsiders' while rights allow current shareholders to maintain their share of the floats. It is obvious that Ezra mgmt believe this is a temporary setback due to maturity of bonds that were made for investment in last few years that will reap returns in future so the last they want is dilution. After all, the rights will not affect the overall NTA and Balance Sheet but improve it once the debt is pared down. If O&G industry recovers, the run up will be something that they do not want to risk losing. Market expected Jun 5 OPEC mtg to be a non event as OPEC likely to maintain status quo with high production. Who knows if a sudden twist as it is so easy to spike up the oil price with a little hint of production moderation without any significant reduction. They will have the best of both worlds !
Bottom line, those vested may just have to live with the tension on Tues as it is indeed difficult to predict the movement. It may surprise all of us.
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lglg666
Supreme |
31-May-2015 23:15
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With the latest rights and bonds issues....things will be more messy esp since no price for the rights yet. | ||||
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roostertan
Member |
31-May-2015 23:10
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Wonder why management did not initiate a placement.  Obviously, share price would have been better off with a placement than a rights issue.  In usual case, rights issue always makes its share price falls. |
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Huatsweeswee
Master |
31-May-2015 22:42
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K. Thks for ur reply now I understand. Ok I'll wait should be quit some time correct. Few mths later.
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Jimmykohkk
Master |
31-May-2015 22:31
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The idea is akin to Iran is able to export oil. With extra oil from Iran onto the market, oil price are predicted to drop due to the extra supply unless the demand also goes up, absorbing the increase in supply, then price will not drop. So in order to absorb the extra 2000000 lots of Ezra shares (converted from rights), there must be increase demand for the extra shares. So if let say, from XE to the day when the extra 2000000 lots of Ezra shares are allowed into the market, there are good news like Erza getting a billion dollar contract etc, then the demand for Ezra shares will increase and can easily absorb the new extra 2000000 lots of Erza shares. But if market sentiment remains weak and Erza does not have any good news to increase the demand for it' s share, this extra 2000000 lots of Ezra shares will cause an overhang and cause share price to drop .. So is not 100% price will drop la, depends on whether the market turns bullish or there are any good news coming out from Ezra..
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Jimmykohkk
Master |
31-May-2015 22:25
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i mean buy Ezra mother shares when the mother shares (those converted from rights) is out in the market. ie: the 2000000 lots of rights will be converted to mother share when investors subscribed for them. These 2000000 lots of shares will be traded on the market on a certain date and this day, there is an extra 2000000 lots of Ezra shares in the market, thats when the price will drop due to  a sudden outslaught of shares. The current number of shares issued is only 1000000 lots. On  tat certain day, the 2000000 lots of Ezra shares  will come onto the market as investors convert the rights to the mother share. So on this particular day, the market will have 3000000 lots of share in circulation, thus price will most likely drop due to an overhang of shares on that day.  
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Huatsweeswee
Master |
31-May-2015 21:08
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Sorry I'm abit tud. Just to double confirm is it buy Ezra rights from the open market. Then subscribe it . Is it what u mean?
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hannyhanny
Senior |
31-May-2015 21:04
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Oic, no right no wrong. If you average down is also a method, hope you huat big then, cheers
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happyharvest
Elite |
31-May-2015 21:02
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what is your long term target?
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Shifu8888
Supreme |
31-May-2015 21:02
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I agree fully with u, aloser.... But in crisis and sell in glory. The reverse is devastating. Cheers....
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happyharvest
Elite |
31-May-2015 21:00
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They are confidence of the future does not necessary translate to real result. they have been confidence for many many years yet prices are still low
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Shifu8888
Supreme |
31-May-2015 21:00
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Btw, I'm not a supporter of this stock. I only invest in any stock that gives returns. No sentiments attached.
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Shifu8888
Supreme |
31-May-2015 20:58
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Thanks for the advice. The fact is I have encountered bad experience of "timing the market" by selling first hoping to buy back later but sometimes the sad reality is that the seller may not have the chance to buy back again.
Let's analyze again, LL has always been in the habit of buying back shares. He had not been doing so of late. This is a simple "conspiracy theory" that the family is hoping to subscribe the rights at dirt cheap price. My entry price is cheaper than many of the investors. In stock investment, the maxim is "impossible to buy at the lowest low and sell at the highest high." I look to average down and further subscribe the rights. This stock is grossly undervalued and the future remains bright for this industry.
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Aloser
Member |
31-May-2015 20:54
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To a real invester, near term up or down is not a concern. The key point is to buy in crisis and sell in glory. If you believe Ezra will survive, then it is the right moment to buy in commitment. Nobody can be so sure about tmr' s up or down. The share prize has been depressed or sold so low already, the right isuue at this moment could be the last hit to destroy opportunists. The price will likely go sinking, but you will surrender or grab the real chance? The price for the right is not a issue, so is not the ration of how much for how much stake. The matter is will you lose your right, let your right be really diluted in giving up? The purpose is a ....huge redistribution of ownership, asset, money! To me, the right issue is a good solution. I don' t want most of the profits goes to the loan sharks, I want my money work for me. I am prepared for this, and I think all those big stake holders prepared for this. I had walk with China fish through its dark times, and pocketed > 50% gains, now the cash is ready for ezra. I can die with ezra: 置 之 于 死 地 而 后 生 。  
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