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FATABA Supreme	17-Nov-2016 08:42        FATABA About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	U are right if you are refering to last week ......yes it still up as the qtr result is good and its price was badly push down due to overconcern on OnG my note was on just yesterday ....the day gain all gone ....it went above 16.45+ ( cant recall actual ) and then down all the way. ​ DBS can become a volatile stock for day trading ...lol pinkowl      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 23:06) Posted: Just last week, DBS was trading at 15, sometimes below 15.  Today, it' s at 16.20. I wouldn' t say it has given up all its gain. As of today' s closing price, DBS is still 8% up since last week.  FATABA      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 16:30) Posted: Wow from 16.48 back down to 16.22 giving up all its gain and go negative. Over 5M done.
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Qanghoo Supreme	17-Nov-2016 08:25        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Brother, I think so too, especially if OCBC divests its UE stake for a substantial one-time gain to.  OCBC has considerable hidden value still.  seanpent      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 09:17) Posted: if DBS penetrates 17 ..... OCBC shoot thru 9 ? Qanghoo      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 09:13) Posted: Soon to crash though the 17 glass ceiling?  DYODD though.
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Qanghoo Supreme	17-Nov-2016 08:23        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The is probably what chng kays are playing on ..... Sibor up for 3rd consecutive day In 3Q rpt, dbs nim dropped 10 basis pts to 1.77%.  But theirs was still the highest among the 3 local bks.  Now, likelihood going forward is, if SIBOR continues to firm, we might expect dbs nim to trend  closer to 2% by early to mid 2017.  That wld be abt 10% up from 3Q.  N if NPL provisioning tapers off, DBS cld be rpting 1.5 bil NPAT by 2Q17.  DYODD though.    Qanghoo      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 09:13) Posted: Soon to crash though the 17 glass ceiling?  DYODD though. seanpent      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 09:09) Posted: DBS ... then OCBC ... seems like a super rally taking shape ...
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FaceTheFact Member	17-Nov-2016 00:47        FaceTheFact About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You mentioned a total write-off of 20b from her books. I only stated 10% write-off. Who is exaggerating the scenario? Even if it' s a total write-off, DBS would still be around since there' s an Ah Gong behind. Question is should we follow the current run-up and buy now? Is the global and local economy so good that it would continue to run up and up? If one can buy at a lower price, why chase? Even if you are keeping for the longer term. Pse dyodd... I' m not invested.       jeremyow      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 12:36) Posted: Althought the total exposure to the O& G sector is not a small sum (approximately 20 billion), the CEO has clarified in his recent quarter results presentation that most of the exposure (90%) with the big O& G names is in the production support side rather than the exploration side. The O& G production support side is still holding up better than the exploration side as there is still cashflows coming in their businesses abeit margins are lower and these O& G companies have good quality vessels that have long life span compared to the short loans they have. So, it is still viable for DBS to continue refinancing some of these companies. My take is that it is not a total complete doom and gloom for this sector. Some parts of this sector are still holding up well while others have gone under. Unless all the O& G companies that DBS has exposure to all collapse over the next few years, then DBS will have to absorb this huge loss and write off this 20 billion from its books which I think the chance of this happening is almost nil. If that should happen, it will really be an armageddon for the O& G sector. So we need to be realistic to have a clearer view of the situation. Anyway, DBS already has the liquidity on its books to handle even the worst case scenario of a total loss of 20 billion (which armaggeddon will never happen to the entire O& G sector) in my humble opinion. So, are we again exaggerating the worst case scenario? As always, pls DYODD.         FaceTheFact      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 00:39) Posted: DBS has SGD22b of exposure to O& G of which SGD17b are loans. For O& G, management expects no NPLs from the Producers, Traders and Processors segments.  Within the segment &lsquo other&rsquo are SGD9b that includes: 1) shipyards in Singapore and 2) 10-12 key names in the O& G space where average exposure is SGD500-600m. Exposure to Swiber alone is 721m. Plus Swissco and Rickmers declaring similar issues today. This is just the beginning and think more would be surfacing in the next 1 year. Even with a mere 10% write-off, it is already 2.2b and is substantial, though DBS can still afford this. Dyodd
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pinkowl Supreme	16-Nov-2016 23:06        pinkowl About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just last week, DBS was trading at 15, sometimes below 15.  Today, it' s at 16.20. I wouldn' t say it has given up all its gain. As of today' s closing price, DBS is still 8% up since last week.  FATABA      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 16:30) Posted: Wow from 16.48 back down to 16.22 giving up all its gain and go negative. Over 5M done. jeremyow      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 12:36) Posted: Althought the total exposure to the O& G sector is not a small sum (approximately 20 billion), the CEO has clarified in his recent quarter results presentation that most of the exposure (90%) with the big O& G names is in the production support side rather than the exploration side. The O& G production support side is still holding up better than the exploration side as there is still cashflows coming in their businesses abeit margins are lower and these O& G companies have good quality vessels that have long life span compared to the short loans they have. So, it is still viable for DBS to continue refinancing some of these companies. My take is that it is not a total complete doom and gloom for this sector. Some parts of this sector are still holding up well while others have gone under. Unless all the O& G companies that DBS has exposure to all collapse over the next few years, then DBS will have to absorb this huge loss and write off this 20 billion from its books which I think the chance of this happening is almost nil. If that should happen, it will really be an armageddon for the O& G sector. So we need to be realistic to have a clearer view of the situation. Anyway, DBS already has the liquidity on its books to handle even the worst case scenario of a total loss of 20 billion (which armaggeddon will never happen to the entire O& G sector) in my humble opinion. So, are we again exaggerating the worst case scenario? As always, pls DYODD.
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john_ric Supreme	16-Nov-2016 18:24        john_ric About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	even though dbs may have the cash to absorb the 20 b o n g loss. it will still be hurt.
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FATABA Supreme	16-Nov-2016 16:30        FATABA About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Wow from 16.48 back down to 16.22 giving up all its gain and go negative. Over 5M done. jeremyow      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 12:36) Posted: Althought the total exposure to the O& G sector is not a small sum (approximately 20 billion), the CEO has clarified in his recent quarter results presentation that most of the exposure (90%) with the big O& G names is in the production support side rather than the exploration side. The O& G production support side is still holding up better than the exploration side as there is still cashflows coming in their businesses abeit margins are lower and these O& G companies have good quality vessels that have long life span compared to the short loans they have. So, it is still viable for DBS to continue refinancing some of these companies. My take is that it is not a total complete doom and gloom for this sector. Some parts of this sector are still holding up well while others have gone under. Unless all the O& G companies that DBS has exposure to all collapse over the next few years, then DBS will have to absorb this huge loss and write off this 20 billion from its books which I think the chance of this happening is almost nil. If that should happen, it will really be an armageddon for the O& G sector. So we need to be realistic to have a clearer view of the situation. Anyway, DBS already has the liquidity on its books to handle even the worst case scenario of a total loss of 20 billion (which armaggeddon will never happen to the entire O& G sector) in my humble opinion. So, are we again exaggerating the worst case scenario? As always, pls DYODD.         FaceTheFact      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 00:39) Posted: DBS has SGD22b of exposure to O& G of which SGD17b are loans. For O& G, management expects no NPLs from the Producers, Traders and Processors segments.  Within the segment &lsquo other&rsquo are SGD9b that includes: 1) shipyards in Singapore and 2) 10-12 key names in the O& G space where average exposure is SGD500-600m. Exposure to Swiber alone is 721m. Plus Swissco and Rickmers declaring similar issues today. This is just the beginning and think more would be surfacing in the next 1 year. Even with a mere 10% write-off, it is already 2.2b and is substantial, though DBS can still afford this. Dyodd
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jeremyow Master	16-Nov-2016 12:36        jeremyow About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Passionate business investor"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Althought the total exposure to the O& G sector is not a small sum (approximately 20 billion), the CEO has clarified in his recent quarter results presentation that most of the exposure (90%) with the big O& G names is in the production support side rather than the exploration side. The O& G production support side is still holding up better than the exploration side as there is still cashflows coming in their businesses abeit margins are lower and these O& G companies have good quality vessels that have long life span compared to the short loans they have. So, it is still viable for DBS to continue refinancing some of these companies. My take is that it is not a total complete doom and gloom for this sector. Some parts of this sector are still holding up well while others have gone under. Unless all the O& G companies that DBS has exposure to all collapse over the next few years, then DBS will have to absorb this huge loss and write off this 20 billion from its books which I think the chance of this happening is almost nil. If that should happen, it will really be an armageddon for the O& G sector. So we need to be realistic to have a clearer view of the situation. Anyway, DBS already has the liquidity on its books to handle even the worst case scenario of a total loss of 20 billion (which armaggeddon will never happen to the entire O& G sector) in my humble opinion. So, are we again exaggerating the worst case scenario? As always, pls DYODD.         FaceTheFact      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 00:39) Posted: DBS has SGD22b of exposure to O& G of which SGD17b are loans. For O& G, management expects no NPLs from the Producers, Traders and Processors segments.  Within the segment &lsquo other&rsquo are SGD9b that includes: 1) shipyards in Singapore and 2) 10-12 key names in the O& G space where average exposure is SGD500-600m. Exposure to Swiber alone is 721m. Plus Swissco and Rickmers declaring similar issues today. This is just the beginning and think more would be surfacing in the next 1 year. Even with a mere 10% write-off, it is already 2.2b and is substantial, though DBS can still afford this. Dyodd
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seanpent Supreme	16-Nov-2016 09:58        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	seems consistent ..... takes breather, climb ... takes breather, climb ... takes breather, climb ... seanpent      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 09:17) Posted: if DBS penetrates 17 ..... OCBC shoot thru 9 ? Qanghoo      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 09:13) Posted: Soon to crash though the 17 glass ceiling?  DYODD though.
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seanpent Supreme	16-Nov-2016 09:17        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	if DBS penetrates 17 ..... OCBC shoot thru 9 ? Qanghoo      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 09:13) Posted: Soon to crash though the 17 glass ceiling?  DYODD though. seanpent      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 09:09) Posted: DBS ... then OCBC ... seems like a super rally taking shape ...
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Qanghoo Supreme	16-Nov-2016 09:13        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Soon to crash though the 17 glass ceiling?  DYODD though. seanpent      ( Date: 16-Nov-2016 09:09) Posted: DBS ... then OCBC ... seems like a super rally taking shape ...  seanpent      ( Date: 15-Nov-2016 09:37) Posted: STI entering the super rally mode ?  ..... seems  index / blue chips all turning bullish ..... laggards to catch up ..... Kepcorp, GLP .....
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seanpent Supreme	16-Nov-2016 09:09        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	DBS ... then OCBC ... seems like a super rally taking shape ...  seanpent      ( Date: 15-Nov-2016 09:37) Posted: STI entering the super rally mode ?  ..... seems  index / blue chips all turning bullish ..... laggards to catch up ..... Kepcorp, GLP ..... seanpent      ( Date: 14-Nov-2016 16:49) Posted: today consolidated  & ready  for next run up ?
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Immortal Master	16-Nov-2016 08:57        Immortal About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good run once again
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WanSiTong Supreme	16-Nov-2016 08:46        WanSiTong About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Time Price Trade size Type 08:35:00 16.373 15,000 X 08:35:00 16.369 97,800 X 08:31:00 16.306 157,700 X 08:31:00 16.354 751,200 X                                                         1,021.7
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Qanghoo Supreme	16-Nov-2016 07:23        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	When DBS wrote off > 1bil from it' s disastrous over computation of the valuation of DHB (at 3.3x bk) when it bought the HK lender some yrs back, no one seemed to have raised an eye lid, although  NPAT was considerably lower then.    As for its current exposure to OnG my  haunch is  DBS is having the situation under control.    The fact that it probably played hard ball with Swissco, forcing the IJM,  speaks for itself in my view.    Away from OnG, I suspect  part of the reasons for playing up the bks the last few  days cld be the perception that Trump' s proposed  fiscal policies were likely to stoke inflation  more quickly  n  force the  FED' s hands in hiking interest sooner than later.  This, in turn,  is likely to feed into a sustained recovery  in  SIBOR (so low < 1% for such  an over-extended period of time)  n a +ve NIM for the bks, especially DBS -  which from what I understand is usually a net lender in the local  interbk mkt.  Hence, my own sense is if all the +ves fall into place (including a possible writeback of some NPL provisions if oil recovers too), DBS is likely to register => 6 bil  NPAT within the next 2-3 yrs, translating into an EPS of  => 2.40, potentially raising  TP to > 20/share ...  Furthermore, if STI retraces to, say, 3.3k again (although,  for me, this is more likely to be  a big yawn),  maybe DBS' shares cld trade even higher.  But like I  usually end in such personal-opinion posts .... DYODD.
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FaceTheFact Member	16-Nov-2016 00:39        FaceTheFact About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	DBS has SGD22b of exposure to O& G of which SGD17b are loans. For O& G, management expects no NPLs from the Producers, Traders and Processors segments.  Within the segment &lsquo other&rsquo are SGD9b that includes: 1) shipyards in Singapore and 2) 10-12 key names in the O& G space where average exposure is SGD500-600m. Exposure to Swiber alone is 721m. Plus Swissco and Rickmers declaring similar issues today. This is just the beginning and think more would be surfacing in the next 1 year. Even with a mere 10% write-off, it is already 2.2b and is substantial, though DBS can still afford this. Dyodd
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seanpent Supreme	15-Nov-2016 14:14        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	OCBC rampaging ? seanpent      ( Date: 15-Nov-2016 09:37) Posted: STI entering the super rally mode ?  ..... seems  index / blue chips all turning bullish ..... laggards to catch up ..... Kepcorp, GLP ..... seanpent      ( Date: 14-Nov-2016 16:49) Posted: today consolidated  & ready  for next run up ?
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seanpent Supreme	15-Nov-2016 13:57        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	taking short breather then marching on again ? seanpent      ( Date: 15-Nov-2016 12:34) Posted: superb performance by DBS ! seanpent      ( Date: 15-Nov-2016 09:42) Posted: SGX too ?
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seanpent Supreme	15-Nov-2016 12:34        seanpent About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	superb performance by DBS ! seanpent      ( Date: 15-Nov-2016 09:42) Posted: SGX too ? seanpent      ( Date: 15-Nov-2016 09:37) Posted: STI entering the super rally mode ?  ..... seems  index / blue chips all turning bullish ..... laggards to catch up ..... Kepcorp, GLP .....
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jeremyow Master	15-Nov-2016 12:17        jeremyow About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Passionate business investor"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The loan in the O& G sector is indeed a valid concern not to be brushed aside lightly. However, we should take a deeper look into how much is the impact of the bad debts from the O& G sector going to affect DBS. As of current, the recently announced results for DBS for FY2016 9M earnings already surpasses FY2015 full year earnings. Even if there is any impairment and write downs due to any bad debts from O& G sector in 2016 4Q, I think the performance of DBS for FY2016 will still be good. Consider also other positive catalysts down the road such as potential increase in interest rates by US Fed Reserve and DBS has entered into an agreement to acquire ANZ wealth management and retail banking businesses in Singapore and few other countries. This acquisition will start to take place next year and progressively until 2018 when it will be completed. Expect next year' s performance of DBS to be boosted by this impending acquisition. I doubt the O& G bad debts is a huge problem on its balance sheet. If not, why would DBS still commit large capital to acquire another big business? That would have been shooting itself in the leg.   In conclusion, we always try our best to find out and understand the extent of any issues/ challenges a business is facing and how much is the impact of it. Are there other mitigating factors also to consider? There may be other positives about a business that much dominate over the temporary negatives a business is facing. News and media will tend to sensasionalise the positive and negative news of a company. People also tend to exagerrate what they read from the news. Always DYODD to find out and determine the actual extent/ impact of a positive or negative news on a company. One may then make a more informed opinion about a company rather than only listening to other people' s comments only which may or may not be a good and fair assessment of the news about a company.  Qanghoo      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 17:38) Posted: Haha, brother I was just abt to say that when I read ur post.  Just shows how some are leading (or more correctly misleading) the masses by the nose.  People just ignore the fundamentals n just spin a story n then play the mkt along.  Then the media just blindly splasshes it.  N that was what had been happening over the last ten mths or so.  Now, I don' t know what' s changed.  Only the invisible mind/s at work behind the scene knows.  FATABA      ( Date: 11-Nov-2016 16:47) Posted: Suddenly this few days .....the loan in O& G sector become a non issue.  DBS just shot up . ​ NO one ( or any article mentioned about the bad loans ) A very funny world.
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