| Latest Forum Topics / Keppel Reit Last:0.85 -- |
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Neglected, Illiquid, Undervalue, Recovery counter
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everknight
Member |
22-Oct-2013 11:53
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Couldn't find anything too. 130M shares traded so far at a discount to yesterday's price...
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danytan
Master |
22-Oct-2013 11:45
Yells: "Up up and away!" |
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No news as far as im aware.
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everknight
Member |
22-Oct-2013 11:33
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What's the news on KepREIT today? | ||||
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Rosesyrup
Master |
21-Oct-2013 16:14
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Thanks for your analysis. But your 2 dimensional charts seems to provide very limited means in assessing and comparing the counters which each has many other important strengths and weaknesses that cannot be capture within a 2d graph. Also,by lumping all the reits on a single chart, you are basically suggesting that they are of similar natural. But are they? The market for office property is same as those of industry or mall? .Finally, goldman sac (a huge bank BTW) bought the counter at around $1.55, but the current price is still way below that. It is either Goldman sac make a big mistake and overvalued the reit or the current price is oversold and will be corrected upward soon. You may contact me via [email protected]
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marubozu1688
Master |
20-Oct-2013 15:51
Yells: "Be humble in front of Mr. Market." |
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Upside limited for Keppel REIT. http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/capitamall-trust/is-it-time-to-invest-in-singapore-reit-to-build-up-passive-i
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Rosesyrup
Master |
16-Oct-2013 21:35
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Seems like I am right about Kep Reit's little concern about rising interest rate. :) Distributable rise by 6.1%. |
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drifter198
Member |
19-Sep-2013 21:48
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No taper REIT all green green..but once any rumour come out REIT first one to get hit again. Still vulnerable...won't risk. Any time now market sentiment over-inflated...just my small opinion | ||||
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guoyanyunyan
Supreme |
19-Sep-2013 20:59
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...today ... all REIT counters green green... deserve a second looks... | ||||
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guoyanyunyan
Supreme |
21-Aug-2013 11:37
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Keppel REIT - Most Undervalued Office REITWe initiate coverage on Kep REIT with a BUY. Using DCF with terminal growth rate assumption of 3.0%, blended COE of 9.3% (with a 3% riskfree rate, 0.8x beta and 7.88% equity risk premium), we arrive at a $1.66 TP. We expect Kep REIT shares to re-rate over the medium-term, as its portfolio will likely benefit from Singapore?s low incoming supply of new commercial assets and its high-yielding Australian assets. ...last: $1.19... https://cced0bba-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/researchreport92/DMG_KeppelREIT20082013.pdf?attachauth=ANoY7cqWWVBYsbqhcweY5LYal1NOUFsne4chxADyWPJ1vERB2BpQg9ux31MPjMNTr9zBzUkOmH6gnhU7QKE9HNNEb7c0_CqcaRD6FXSw2BKPCYB-u9Cpbju8Yvwdp_rO__QH0utZEmdTXcAkZM7E-twQHo6cw1UO-SPXMR-qrMbM7RMdcd-FAxRjrPDO6VcmA-XfvwYNt2aCCqgRYC0ZXgxPeZ8-Ip799u_9Eed_kYwlmudqGO6PXVI%3D& attredirects=0 |
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john_ric
Supreme |
30-Jul-2013 23:02
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placement shares only 1.26 per unit. lower than today's price. |
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Rosesyrup
Master |
30-Jul-2013 18:26
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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This is what I think: -Beta would be a better and more comprehensive measure of risks than Gearing ratio, which simply measured bankruptcy risk. -Expected return would be a more accurate measure than Price/NAV since NAV is a historical measure of asset worth. E.g. NAV of a piece of land brought 10 years ago might be much lower than its real value now, thus this give rise to low NAV and make the counter appear to have high Price/NAV (expensive counter). Similarly, if the historical price of a land is high, but after some disaster like nuclear leak, it would has a low real value now. However, its NAV continued to be high and its Price/NAV appeared to be deceiving low (cheap). Thus Price/NAV which is based on historical data might distort investment decision. Expected return, which is based upon future data does not has this problem. Correct me if I am wrong.
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Rosesyrup
Master |
30-Jul-2013 14:01
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Erm, I clicked on your link. This is what I saw from your " Singapore Reits Comparision Graph" : - Kep Reit has got high gearing, -but it has low Price/NAV. (By the way: NAV= Net Asset Value) And the following is my intepretation of what I saw: -High gearing means high risk (of bankruptcy). -While Low Price/NAV means that the current price paid for every dollar of Kep Reit's Net Asset is cheap. Since Kep Reit is cheap, one can get a higher return by buying into it. -Thus the Risk-Return ratio of Kep Reit = High Risk/ High Return. -What is there to short for such a balanced Reit? -Shouldn't you call to short reit that has High Risk/ Low return (and so overvalued) e.g. PLife Reit?
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marubozu1688
Master |
29-Jul-2013 15:51
Yells: "Be humble in front of Mr. Market." |
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Potential candidate to short! High gearing! http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-reits/are-you-ready-to-short-singapore-reit/ |
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Octavia
Supreme |
29-Jul-2013 10:35
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KREIT launched a placement of 95m new units (3.5% of existing unit base) at issue price of $1.26/unit. Net proceeds of $119.7m will be used to part-fund the 50% stake for the Melbourne office at 8 Exhibition Street. This is the second placement done this year following the $53m placement in Feb with proceeds used to repay debt. This implies a leverage ratio of 38% and should cap KREIT’s gearing at around the 45% level (pro-forma 2Q gearing declines from 44.2% to 43.9%). Mgmt expects the acquisition to be DPU accretive. This lifts the near-term equity raising overhang, medium term earnings risk from the expiry of income support structures and its higher-than-peer gearing in a rising interest rate environment remain key concerns. DB maintain HOLD rating, with TP of $1.36. Counter currently trades at 6.1% FY13e yield and 1.0x P/B. | ||||
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Octavia
Supreme |
26-Jul-2013 22:15
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Keppel Reit on Friday announced that it has successfully raised gross proceeds of S$119.7 million in an issuance of 95 million new units to institutional and other investors. The money raised will be used to buy a 50-per-cent stake in 8 Exhibition Street, a property in Melbourne, Australia, it said, confirming an earlier online report from BT. The issue price of S$1.26 per unit carried a 2.58 per cent discount to its adjusted volume weighted average price of S$1.2934 for trades done on Thursday. |
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Rosesyrup
Master |
26-Jul-2013 21:19
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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As the limited amount of liquidility that is currently in the system flows to pursue SPH reits, it resulted in Keppel Reits being oversold and SPH Reits being overvalued. This presented a good opportunity for accumulation of Keppel Reits. The following are positive points about Keppel Reits: 1) Investment in Austrialia prime office space: Austrialia has reached the end of its commodity investment journey and the country is now planning to shift its economy focus. Mostly likely than not, the focus will be landed on the country's already well-developed financial sectors - international trade theory of comparative advantage. This would result in demand for more office space in the prime area. 2) Fund flowing back from SPH Reits Singapore like many of the developed economies are shifting toward becoming a service oriented country- fall in manufacturing data. Like Austrialia, this means more demands for office space which lead to higher rental and valuation gains. On the other hand, with the opening of more new malls in 2 years time, retail spaces such as those owned by SPH reits will become abundant. To make things worse, Clementi Mall charges one of the highest rent among comparable malls- the sustainability of those rental charges are doubted. All these mean that liquidity will once again flow back to Keppel Reit once investors get over the excitement of SPH's new reit and rationality picks up. 3) Rising Interest Rate is not a significant concern Singapore % rate is highly pegged to US % rate, which is dependent on US bond purchasing program. According to Fed, the QE program would most likely end by mid 2014. Until then, we could safely assume that there will be no significant rise in % rate and Kep reit could enjoy another year of financial leverage. Furthermore, MAS might choose to depreciate the SGD, which is at its all time high, over inceasing the Singapore % rate. This might be necessary to prevent a sudden spike in interest rate which would cause the high amount of local housing debts to beome Non Performing Loan (NPL). Simply put, interest rate might still stay low for a period of time even after mid 2014. As such I retain my TP at $1.82. As the market get bullish, more liquidity will flows in along with professional fund managers, who tend to rely more on Fundamental Analysis (FA) rather than Technical Analysis (TA). So more foucs on FA might be needed- TA is a self-fulfulling prophecy. |
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marubozu1688
Master |
22-Jul-2013 23:24
Yells: "Be humble in front of Mr. Market." |
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Keppel REIT is bearish. http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/capitamall-trust/is-it-a-good-time-to-buy-singapore-reit-now/ |
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Rosesyrup
Master |
05-Jul-2013 14:50
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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A number of investors are rather concern of Kep Reit's high leverage ratio. Although it's true that financial cost will increase once interest rates start hiking, that is hardly the full story. Interest rates normally go up during economy recovery, which allows management to increase rental fee that will offset the higher financial cost, at least partially. There is a recent article on Singapore's commercial property rental expect to rise, you can verify it. Anyway, the spotlight is not on whether the rental fee would rise more than the financial cost. Rather, the mainpoint here is revaluation gain from the properties. For the past few years, property developers have largely been focusing on residential properties, and so commerical properties have been neglected. As the economy recovers, business activities will increased and commercial properties (CP) will experience high demand and low supply. Property developers may quickly turn toward developing CP, but the it will still take them at least 2-3 years before the new properties are ready to recieve new tentants. The then higher interest rate would also make it expensive to develop new properties. All these give Kep Reit a strong potential for high revaluation gain. I have given it a TP of $1.82. P.S. Only good management teams could recongnise and exploit the opportunities offered by the low interest rates environment, which prevail for the past few years. Therefore when compared aganist lowly leveraged reits, Kep Reit's high leverage ratio is actually a display of strenght rather than weakness.
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alexmay
Veteran |
03-Jul-2013 14:20
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visited 77 King street in Sydney, guess who is their tenant Apple and FB, Just opposite LV outlet! http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/more-news/3-reasons-why-keppel-reit-ratings-could-clinch-moodys-ratings-upgrade |
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marubozu1688
Master |
02-Jun-2013 12:03
Yells: "Be humble in front of Mr. Market." |
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You can check the comparison table here for Singapore REIT. http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-reits/singapore-reits-comparison-table-for-dividend-investing-as-passive-income-june-2013/
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