| Latest Forum Topics / Super Group |
|
|
Super Coffee
|
|||||
|
lifeisgood
Supreme |
13-Aug-2014 12:12
|
||||
|
x 0
x 1 Alert Admin |
When a stock is in a rising trend, waiting for low is very hard. When a stock is on a downtrend, waiting for low is easier. Super is now on a downtrend, no point trying to guess when is the uptrend. Just watch when the chart turns or when the business fundamentals start to improve. Currently, they are  still deteriorating.  
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
morningstar13
Member |
13-Aug-2014 11:54
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Very interesting reads here about coffee: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27623535    - Brazil coffee prices are usually locked in earlier at cheaper prices though prices might rise in the future ... seems like higher end coffee retailers like starbucks might suffer more http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-25811724  - Vietname has become the 2nd largest coffee producer ... so Super might want to look closer to home then ... and not be dependent on Brazil ...    
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
Kyoto2008
Elite |
13-Aug-2014 11:43
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Very good discussion going on.  I missed the biz element, ie coffee bean price which will affect Super' s gross margins.    Peter Lynch, in his book " One Up on Wall Street" (highly recommended by so many sources I lost count, I bought the book and reading it now) says he looks at gross margins more than PATMI  (profit after tax and minority interests).      |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
morningstar13
Member |
13-Aug-2014 11:37
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The difficult part is always to know how low is low enough. Waiting for Singpost and CMA to reach a low enough price to buy was a mistake, something I regret very much...so really, u cant time the market. The point is not to be fully invested yet but just buy some in case prices do not fall to your exxpected level. :) |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
lifeisgood
Supreme |
13-Aug-2014 11:31
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Yes agree. Whether one makes money in investment very much depends on the entry price. Even  for very good stocks, if entered at the wrong price, also can lose a lot of money.  Super Group  current valuation is not a screaming buy. So risk / reward is not really there yet.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
morningstar13
Member |
13-Aug-2014 11:28
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
I guess this kind of problem is not unique to Super then... so, hopefully, Super group management is experienced to deal with such costs and setbacks since they have been in such business since 1987. It' s just that if they really do overcome the setbacks and start making good profits, its prices might have run high again ... just monitor ... and enter at a low enough price u r comfortable with
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
lifeisgood
Supreme |
13-Aug-2014 11:22
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
But according to Brazil, there is a drought which will last at least 3 years, severely affecting production. Maybe the sanction against Russia may affect the demand / supply dynamics, this one is un-analysable. But management did mention rising raw materials cost is an issue.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
morningstar13
Member |
13-Aug-2014 11:20
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Isnt coffee bean prices cyclic? Prices seem to have peaked in March 2014 and is currently falling. So, if Super can buy them low, then high prices isnt a big concern. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
lifeisgood
Supreme |
13-Aug-2014 11:14
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Super Group  business strategy wrong lah! The Food Ingredients business is only good for short term immediate profits boost. In the long run, it cannibalises its own branded products. I now see all brands of packaged coffee mixes in the super market that is  NOT Super Group brand. Management too shortsighted, only looking for short term growth. The easy ride was over.   And when coffee bean prices stay very high, the FI business willbe hurt badly by higher raw material cost. Super Group major profit cycle coincided with CHEAP coffee beans prices. Now no more. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
morningstar13
Member |
13-Aug-2014 11:13
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
As long as the setback is temporary and the company is not making losses and the management team is proactive in growing its businesses, it is good to hold and buy. Why follow the masses to sell just cos the analysts are telling you to sell? Consider adding when they tell you to sell so you can buy low and sell high? |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
godanchong
Member |
13-Aug-2014 11:06
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Super Group Ltd. Second Quarter Earnings: What You Need To KnowBy Sudhan P - August 12, 2014 | See also: S100inSuper Group Ltd. (SGX: S10) is a leading instant food & beverage (F& B) brand owner with a strong market presence in Southeast Asia (SEA). The firm operates in two main business segments &ndash Branded Consumer (BC) and Food Ingredients (FI). The BC segment takes care of the sale of instant coffee mixes, instant tea, cereals, cup noodles and so on. Under the segment, the company owns sub-brands such as Super, Owl, and NutreMill. Meanwhile, the FI segment is involved in the manufacture of various beverage-ingredients for sale to other beverage manufacturers. The F& B firm released its second quarter results on Monday. Let&rsquo s take a look at what was announced. For the three months ended 30 June 2014, revenue declined 5% year-on-year to S$131.7 million while net profit plunged 59% to S$15 million. The lower revenue was mainly due to lower BC sales. Super had experienced a 9% decline in BC sales to S$83.7 million after experiencing slower sales into its SEA markets. Of the 9% decline, 4% was due to a weakened Thai Baht and Malaysian Ringgit against the Singapore Dollar. The lower sales into SEA markets were partially offset by higher sales in East Asian markets. The FI segment helped pick up some of the slack with a 4% climb in revenue to S$48 million. Higher sales in SEA had helped Super here, more than offsetting lower sales into China. Due to lower operating profit and a S$17.1 million one-off gain recorded last year, Super&rsquo s net profit had collapsed by 59% as mentioned earlier. The one-off gain had occurred when the company sold its 35.3% interest in Sun Resources Holdings Pte Ltd. As of the end of June 2014, Super had a cash balance of S$78 million and total debt of S$21 million. In the previous year, it had negligible debt. The increase in borrowings was to finance its expansion projects. Super has already spent around S$25 million on capital expenditures so far this year for a number of things: Its Tuas factory extension in Singapore the construction of a new China Changzhou plant its Botanical Herbal Extraction facility in Malaysia and a new soluble spray-dry coffee powder facility. Going forward, management commented they will &ldquo adopt a 3-pronged strategy which consist of branding, product innovation and talent management to build on these fundamentals.&rdquo In the second half of this year, a series of marketing campaigns has been lined up for the company&rsquo s core markets, which include Thailand and Malaysia. In Thailand, a new product, Super Brown Coffee, was launched and in Malaysia, 2 well-known celebrities, Mr Izzue Islam and Ms Yana Samsudin, were brought on board to launch a major campaign five days ago (7Aug 2014) to help the company engage with younger consumers. Mr David Teo, Chairman and Managing Director of Super Group, commented on the company&rsquo s future plans:
With reference to a previous article on the company I wrote, Super is indeed &ldquo not resting on its laurels&rdquo . It seems to be always looking at ways to increase profitability and entrench its market position. Shares of the F& B firm last changed hands at S$1.445 on Monday, down 3.1% from last Friday&rsquo s close. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
stsalt
Member |
12-Aug-2014 10:14
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Long enough to see and forecast the outcome -)
I saw many promoters here on 21st July and just wanted to share my analysis.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
WanSiTong
Supreme |
12-Aug-2014 10:03
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Super Group- 1H14: An uninspiring 1H14 looking forward to 2015. (SUPER SP / HOLD / S$1.445 / Target: S$1.55) FY14F PE (x): 22.4 FY15F PE (x): 20.5 Lacklustre 1H14, even after adjusting for exceptionals. Stripping out exceptional items (investment gain of S$17.1m following the sale of Sun Resources in 1H13), Super&rsquo s 1H14 net profit of S$32.9m (-21% yoy) was below our and market expectations. The lacklustre results were due to a combination of lower 1H14 sales (-5% yoy) as well as a 2.4ppt fall in EBITDA margin to 17.3%. The decline in turnover was a result of a 8% yoy fall in branded consumer sales (weaker Thailand and Malaysia primarily due to forex translation) whereas food ingredients posted a flat yoy sales. An interim dividend of 1.0 cent/share was announced. Cutting 2014-16 earnings estimates by 7-16%. We reduce 2014-16 net profit forecasts by 7-16% by to work in lower turnover growth from branded consumer and higher costs. In our new estimates, Super is expected to register a modest 3-year EPS CAGR of 3% for 2014-16. Our revised earnings estimates are 12-13% below 2014-15 consensus. Key risks include: a) raw material prices, b) irrational competition in both FI and BC markets, and c) execution risks in China. Strong cash flows and Asia consumption proxy but wait for better entry levels. We stick to our HOLD with a PE-based target price of S$1.55 (previously S$1.59), assuming peers&rsquo average of 22x 2015F PE (previously 20.2x as share prices of regional peers have risen). We use PE rather than PEG, given an uncertain near-term outlook in Super&rsquo s core markets such as Thailand and Indonesia. Entry price is S$1.32. Source : UOBKH |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
enjoylife77
Veteran |
12-Aug-2014 09:58
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
limkt009
Master |
12-Aug-2014 09:15
Yells: "Watch your front, grab $$$$$$$$ at your own time" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Based on results, will probably consider to buy end 2014. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
tormater
Senior |
12-Aug-2014 09:02
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
1 c interim dividend is not bad for $ 1.5 stock. Can hold for dividend. It's expected weak earning is already factored in after 1Q result. IMO, Will gradually move up towards 3Q. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
hp3000
Veteran |
11-Aug-2014 21:11
Yells: "Huart Ah !! Count $$$$$ liao" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Super Group, the instant coffee maker, said it posted a 58% fall in 2Q ended June (2Q14) net profit to $15.6 million from $37.4 million from a year ago (2Q13). The decrease in earnings was led by a 5% fall in revenue to $131.7 million from $138.3 million due to lower Branded Consumer sales from slowdown in Southeast Asian markets. In 2Q14, Southeast Asia sales posted a 7% dip to $105.6 million while East Asia sales grew 5% to $19 million. David Teo, Chairman and Managing Director of Super Group, said: &ldquo In the first half we delivered a muted performance in a weak revenue environment. We experienced lower Branded Consumer sales due partially to weakened domestic currencies in some of our key Southeast Asian markets such as Thailand and Malaysia. The translation of sales recorded in these currencies into the Singapore Dollar has an adverse impact on reported sales revenue. In addition, weaker consumer demands in markets such as Myanmar and Malaysia also contributed to lower Branded Consumer sales.&rdquo |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
9hly99
Veteran |
11-Aug-2014 18:09
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Overall performance still good despite Thailand political situation.. of shows that super is resilient except probably that super has to raise our expectations...china and mynmmar needs to show continuous enlargement of share before analyst start to re rate the stock...In fact super did well with the absence of one off income last year..as long as they continue to be above last year revenue in the next quarters..we should see better share performance from now...I hope that announce some m&a soon...or capital group increasing or taking stake ... | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
hp3000
Veteran |
11-Aug-2014 16:58
Yells: "Huart Ah !! Count $$$$$ liao" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
In view of this Qtr result it didn' t fall much than the previous. Think super group may buy back some of it shares to support it loss result. I already tell brother & sister here no to be too  optimistic on their coming reslut. As predict it continue to loss on this qtr.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Kyoto2008
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 16:43
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Results are weaker than thought.  Their quarterly run rate is about 20 mln taking out all the exceptional items such as finance gain in 1st quarter and sale of sub in 2nd quarter.      Need to look at why the performance was lower than expected.  The strength of this company is the huge cash horde, and ability to buyout attractive biz with synergies, however, if mgt do not take advantage of their strength, and let the share price drop, they could become a target of takeover. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||

