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Genting SP Next Move
Johnjohnnyhi
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26-Apr-2019 20:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes, it' s under priced.
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kandinsky
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26-Apr-2019 20:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Some companies with lesser cash are trading above $1. GS is underpriced?
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Gencasino
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26-Apr-2019 16:43     
 
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Genting Singapore Has Fallen 13.5%. Is it Cheap Now?



Tim Phillips  |  April 24, 2019  |  More on: 
Roulette wheel with ball on black

Genting Singapore Ltd (SGX: G13) (&ldquo Genting&rdquo )  is a casino and integrated resorts (IR) owner and operator which owns the iconic Resorts World Sentosa. Apart from the casino located in Resorts World, it also contains the well-known theme park Universal Studios Singapore (USS).

In the space of just two months (from late-February 2019), the share price of the company fell from a high of S$1.11 to the current price of S$0.96. Let&rsquo s look into the reasons for this sharp fall and try to figure out if the shares represent good value right now.

Genting Singapore&rsquo s FY 2018 results



Genting reported a decent set of earnings for the fiscal year 2018. Revenue was up 6% year-on-year to S$2.5 billion, while operating profit rose 9% year on year to S$975 million. Finance costs remained relatively constant (an increase of just 1% year-on-year), resulting in net profit after tax increasing by 10% year-on-year to S$755.4 million. Cash levels on the balance sheet were healthy at S$4.2 billion, and the company held around S$1 billion of short and long-term debt. A final dividend of 2 Singapore cents was declared, representing a dividend yield of 2.1% at a share price of S$0.96.

It appears that the earnings announcement was positive, and showed that the company was growing both its top and bottom lines. Cash flow was healthy and there was also a dividend declared, in line with last year&rsquo s amount. Taking this information into account, the sell-down seems unjustified.

Announcement of expansion of IR



In early April however, there was an announcement by Genting on the planned expansion of the IR &ndash Resorts World Sentosa, over an expected period of five years. Genting has pledged to commit to invest approximately S$4.5 billion in a renewal and refresh of the IR. This will see the existing IR property expanded with approximately 50% of new gross floor area, adding around 164,000 square metres of additional leisure and entertainment space. Separately, Genting also announced the renewal of its casino license for another three years commencing 6 February 2019.

This announcement has interesting implications as it would result in USS having two new attractions Minion Park and Super Nintendo World. The number of hotel rooms will increase by 1,100 keys and there will also be an expansion of Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions (MICE) facilities in order to draw in more events to Singapore. These initiatives boost Singapore&rsquo s status as an attractive place for tourists to visit, as well as for event organisers to hold exhibitions

Implications for Genting



The share price decline may be explained by this recent announcement, as investors may be worried about the significant capital outlay of S$4.5 billion which the company has to cough up. When spread out over five years, this amounts to around S$0.9 billion per year.

I took the liberty of downloading the last five years of cash flow data for Genting to assess if it was able to take on this new capital expenditure burden.



From the table above, Genting is generating an average of S$1 billion of free cash flow per year. Thus, it would seem that the company should not have trouble funding the S$0.9 billion of spending per year to upgrade and renew the IR. Also, with a large cash balance in excess of S$4 billion, this also means that the company should be able to tap this for further funding needs, and would also imply that it should be able to continue paying its current dividend of 2 Singapore cents per share.

A bargain?



The share price decline does seem somewhat overdone in light of the above information. Genting is generating lots of cash and investors need not worry about it not being able to foot the bill for the IR expansion. In addition, the expansion of the IR and USS should translate into a boost for future profits and cash flows. In light of all this, and barring an unexpected sharp economic downturn, the shares do seem like a bargain now.
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Luzern
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26-Apr-2019 16:37     
 
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pkli899      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 16:27) Posted:

Yes you have your point.
But how many actually will stop going because of the increase in levy?
Not many from those who pay yearly levy in my opinion.
Of the $134m collected, how much is from yearly payment? There is no breakdown.
It' s debatable right now. Clearer picture will emerge when next quarter result is out.

P.S. I actually went to their car park to observe for a few days and was shocked to see the number of coaches bringing tourists in.
Most of them from our neighbour up north! Worrying sign to their govt. 18.5 m figure does not include them. Likewise, Malaysia annual tourist figure does not include Singaporean.
Singaporean made average close to 10 m trips to Malaysia annually.

Luzern      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 16:05) Posted:

1) 18.5 millions tourists visited Singapore in 2018.  How many are of legal age and how many of the adults visited the casinos?
2) $134million casino levy collected, that is equivalent to 1.34millions visit by PR or locals.  If I paid for a 2k/yr annual pass, i would likely visit the casinos more than 20 times a year.

Hence, my estimate of casinos visits by Singaporean and PRs at 20% to 30% in 2018. 

IMO, DYODD.
 
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pkli899
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26-Apr-2019 16:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes, agreed.

JF_123123123      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 16:33) Posted:

2 May XD day , get some dividend, then buy more on dip.
9 May quarterly result released, depends on tourist on NY and CNY, what do u think?
surge if result good, surge if trade war ended, surge if japan casino near.
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JF_123123123
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26-Apr-2019 16:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		2 May XD day , get some dividend, then buy more on dip.
9 May quarterly result released, depends on tourist on NY and CNY, what do u think?
surge if result good, surge if trade war ended, surge if japan casino near.
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pkli899
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26-Apr-2019 16:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes you have your point.
But how many actually will stop going because of the increase in levy?
Not many from those who pay yearly levy in my opinion.
Of the $134m collected, how much is from yearly payment? There is no breakdown.
It' s debatable right now. Clearer picture will emerge when next quarter result is out.

P.S. I actually went to their car park to observe for a few days and was shocked to see the number of coaches bringing tourists in.
Most of them from our neighbour up north! Worrying sign to their govt. 18.5 m figure does not include them. Likewise, Malaysia annual tourist figure does not include Singaporean.
Singaporean made average close to 10 m trips to Malaysia annually.

Luzern      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 16:05) Posted:

1) 18.5 millions tourists visited Singapore in 2018.  How many are of legal age and how many of the adults visited the casinos?
2) $134million casino levy collected, that is equivalent to 1.34millions visit by PR or locals.  If I paid for a 2k/yr annual pass, i would likely visit the casinos more than 20 times a year.

Hence, my estimate of casinos visits by Singaporean and PRs at 20% to 30% in 2018. 

IMO, DYODD.
 

pkli899      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 15:45) Posted:

PR also need to pay levy.
Genting is not allowed to disclose the ratio of local and foreign patrons. 
$134m included those paid yearly and is 2 casinos combined collection.
Mind you, the collection has been dropping in recent years but revenue from casino didn' t drop correspondingly.
Daily you can see hundreds  bus load of tourists being brought to the casino.
All this helped to conclude the increase in levy will not impact Genting significantly.
Far sighted Chairman Lim has already started planning for more non gaming revenue.
Genting 2.0 only have 500 sq m increase in casino area
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Luzern
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26-Apr-2019 16:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		1) 18.5 millions tourists visited Singapore in 2018.  How many are of legal age and how many of the adults visited the casinos?
2) $134million casino levy collected, that is equivalent to 1.34millions visit by PR or locals.  If I paid for a 2k/yr annual pass, i would likely visit the casinos more than 20 times a year.

Hence, my estimate of casinos visits by Singaporean and PRs at 20% to 30% in 2018. 

IMO, DYODD.
 

pkli899      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 15:45) Posted:

PR also need to pay levy.
Genting is not allowed to disclose the ratio of local and foreign patrons. 
$134m included those paid yearly and is 2 casinos combined collection.
Mind you, the collection has been dropping in recent years but revenue from casino didn' t drop correspondingly.
Daily you can see hundreds  bus load of tourists being brought to the casino.
All this helped to conclude the increase in levy will not impact Genting significantly.
Far sighted Chairman Lim has already started planning for more non gaming revenue.
Genting 2.0 only have 500 sq m increase in casino area.

Luzern      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 14:45) Posted:

https://redwiretimes.com/singapore-in-brief/government-raises-casino-levies-for-singaporeans-after-21-percent-drop-in-collections/

Point (6) ........My question, is PRs considered as foreigners to the Management?  SG government collected S$134 millions of casino entry levies last year, so the local patron contribution should be significant.  IMO
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pkli899
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26-Apr-2019 15:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		PR also need to pay levy.
Genting is not allowed to disclose the ratio of local and foreign patrons. 
$134m included those paid yearly and is 2 casinos combined collection.
Mind you, the collection has been dropping in recent years but revenue from casino didn' t drop correspondingly.
Daily you can see hundreds  bus load of tourists being brought to the casino.
All this helped to conclude the increase in levy will not impact Genting significantly.
Far sighted Chairman Lim has already started planning for more non gaming revenue.
Genting 2.0 only have 500 sq m increase in casino area.

Luzern      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 14:45) Posted:

https://redwiretimes.com/singapore-in-brief/government-raises-casino-levies-for-singaporeans-after-21-percent-drop-in-collections/

Point (6) ........My question, is PRs considered as foreigners to the Management?  SG government collected S$134 millions of casino entry levies last year, so the local patron contribution should be significant.  IMO.

pkli899      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 13:28) Posted:

I have the benefit of attending the recent AGM and wish to clarify as below:

1. Genting can only win/operate one IR in Japan. No issue of overspending in building 2.
2. Japan govt wants Singapore model. Genting is the only bidder with the experience. Their advantage is tremendous.
3. They have zero debt and cash rich (3.6B). The cash will be used for the development with additional funding from borrowing in Japan. (extremely low cost/interest rate).
4. Genting 2.0 expenditure of 4.5B (over 5 years) will be funded progressively from the cash flow. No funding issue.
5. No land cost involved for Genting 2.0. They were granted increase in Plot Ratio ( current is 0.7 only) in exchange for committing 4.5B investment. The additional GFA is the size of Vivo City. Unlike MBS which required additional land for their expansion.
6. Impact of increase in entry levy is small as most of the casino patrons are foreigners.
7. Increase in tax will kick in only in 2022 (if I remembered correctly). The formular is such, only when revenue reaches a certain threshold, they are not required to pay the increase.
8. Genting 2.0 focus is not so much on the gaming side. More family oriented attractions will be built instead. The addition of 1,000 rooms will help them capture those guests that were often turned away due to full house. A hotel was built in Jurong for the purpose.

As Chairman Lim said, why worry about 3% increase in tax when you know the expansion will bring in much more. 


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Luzern
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26-Apr-2019 14:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://redwiretimes.com/singapore-in-brief/government-raises-casino-levies-for-singaporeans-after-21-percent-drop-in-collections/

Point (6) ........My question, is PRs considered as foreigners to the Management?  SG government collected S$134 millions of casino entry levies last year, so the local patron contribution should be significant.  IMO.

pkli899      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 13:28) Posted:

I have the benefit of attending the recent AGM and wish to clarify as below:

1. Genting can only win/operate one IR in Japan. No issue of overspending in building 2.
2. Japan govt wants Singapore model. Genting is the only bidder with the experience. Their advantage is tremendous.
3. They have zero debt and cash rich (3.6B). The cash will be used for the development with additional funding from borrowing in Japan. (extremely low cost/interest rate).
4. Genting 2.0 expenditure of 4.5B (over 5 years) will be funded progressively from the cash flow. No funding issue.
5. No land cost involved for Genting 2.0. They were granted increase in Plot Ratio ( current is 0.7 only) in exchange for committing 4.5B investment. The additional GFA is the size of Vivo City. Unlike MBS which required additional land for their expansion.
6. Impact of increase in entry levy is small as most of the casino patrons are foreigners.
7. Increase in tax will kick in only in 2022 (if I remembered correctly). The formular is such, only when revenue reaches a certain threshold, they are not required to pay the increase.
8. Genting 2.0 focus is not so much on the gaming side. More family oriented attractions will be built instead. The addition of 1,000 rooms will help them capture those guests that were often turned away due to full house. A hotel was built in Jurong for the purpose.

As Chairman Lim said, why worry about 3% increase in tax when you know the expansion will bring in much more. 

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Qanghoo
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26-Apr-2019 14:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yep, the revision in tax will kick in only in 2022.  Meantime, if profitability n div continue at same pace, likely GS can stash away another > 6-700 mil for redevelopment without having to incur additional taxes. 

pkli899      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 13:28) Posted:

I have the benefit of attending the recent AGM and wish to clarify as below:

1. Genting can only win/operate one IR in Japan. No issue of overspending in building 2.
2. Japan govt wants Singapore model. Genting is the only bidder with the experience. Their advantage is tremendous.
3. They have zero debt and cash rich (3.6B). The cash will be used for the development with additional funding from borrowing in Japan. (extremely low cost/interest rate).
4. Genting 2.0 expenditure of 4.5B (over 5 years) will be funded progressively from the cash flow. No funding issue.
5. No land cost involved for Genting 2.0. They were granted increase in Plot Ratio ( current is 0.7 only) in exchange for committing 4.5B investment. The additional GFA is the size of Vivo City. Unlike MBS which required additional land for their expansion.
6. Impact of increase in entry levy is small as most of the casino patrons are foreigners.
7. Increase in tax will kick in only in 2022 (if I remembered correctly). The formular is such, only when revenue reaches a certain threshold, they are not required to pay the increase.
8. Genting 2.0 focus is not so much on the gaming side. More family oriented attractions will be built instead. The addition of 1,000 rooms will help them capture those guests that were often turned away due to full house. A hotel was built in Jurong for the purpose.

As Chairman Lim said, why worry about 3% increase in tax when you know the expansion will bring in much more. 

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Trader130
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26-Apr-2019 14:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yaloh ... A lot bear will come soon once price drop 🤣 🤣 🤣

pkli899      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 13:28) Posted:

I have the benefit of attending the recent AGM and wish to clarify as below:

1. Genting can only win/operate one IR in Japan. No issue of overspending in building 2.
2. Japan govt wants Singapore model. Genting is the only bidder with the experience. Their advantage is tremendous.
3. They have zero debt and cash rich (3.6B). The cash will be used for the development with additional funding from borrowing in Japan. (extremely low cost/interest rate).
4. Genting 2.0 expenditure of 4.5B (over 5 years) will be funded progressively from the cash flow. No funding issue.
5. No land cost involved for Genting 2.0. They were granted increase in Plot Ratio ( current is 0.7 only) in exchange for committing 4.5B investment. The additional GFA is the size of Vivo City. Unlike MBS which required additional land for their expansion.
6. Impact of increase in entry levy is small as most of the casino patrons are foreigners.
7. Increase in tax will kick in only in 2022 (if I remembered correctly). The formular is such, only when revenue reaches a certain threshold, they are not required to pay the increase.
8. Genting 2.0 focus is not so much on the gaming side. More family oriented attractions will be built instead. The addition of 1,000 rooms will help them capture those guests that were often turned away due to full house. A hotel was built in Jurong for the purpose.

As Chairman Lim said, why worry about 3% increase in tax when you know the expansion will bring in much more. 

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pkli899
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26-Apr-2019 13:28     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I have the benefit of attending the recent AGM and wish to clarify as below:

1. Genting can only win/operate one IR in Japan. No issue of overspending in building 2.
2. Japan govt wants Singapore model. Genting is the only bidder with the experience. Their advantage is tremendous.
3. They have zero debt and cash rich (3.6B). The cash will be used for the development with additional funding from borrowing in Japan. (extremely low cost/interest rate).
4. Genting 2.0 expenditure of 4.5B (over 5 years) will be funded progressively from the cash flow. No funding issue.
5. No land cost involved for Genting 2.0. They were granted increase in Plot Ratio ( current is 0.7 only) in exchange for committing 4.5B investment. The additional GFA is the size of Vivo City. Unlike MBS which required additional land for their expansion.
6. Impact of increase in entry levy is small as most of the casino patrons are foreigners.
7. Increase in tax will kick in only in 2022 (if I remembered correctly). The formular is such, only when revenue reaches a certain threshold, they are not required to pay the increase.
8. Genting 2.0 focus is not so much on the gaming side. More family oriented attractions will be built instead. The addition of 1,000 rooms will help them capture those guests that were often turned away due to full house. A hotel was built in Jurong for the purpose.

As Chairman Lim said, why worry about 3% increase in tax when you know the expansion will bring in much more. 
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kandinsky
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26-Apr-2019 11:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Those who worry this worry that should just put their money in fixed d better. Anyway Maybank offering 2.05% now :)

Trader130      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 08:20) Posted:

If GS   bid   and get 2 casino license , this FA newbies will dump GS shares   again because they will they worry GS cannot afford to pay...Do yourself a favour , read more FA books how to do calculation .. Do not listen to forummer who lies to create fear ... but it is good for the old birds   if opportunity arises🤣 🤣 🤣

Trader130      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 08:12) Posted:

Market always over- reacted.. .. normal ...I guess more than 90 %   FA newbies 
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kandinsky
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26-Apr-2019 11:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I am very much a guy :)

SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 08:26) Posted:

Wait for the xd first, girl?



Trade with awareness

kandinsky      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 01:16) Posted:

Momentum is building for an upswing in price. Can feel it coming soon...
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SAVIORFOREVER
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26-Apr-2019 08:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Wait for the xd first, girl?



Trade with awareness

kandinsky      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 01:16) Posted:

Momentum is building for an upswing in price. Can feel it coming soon...
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SgYuan
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26-Apr-2019 08:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		On the bigger wave

main ew 855 w1 1130 w2?
w1 275
w2 170 tgt 960 dn 61.8%
- px hit 950 delta 180 dn 65.5%
- typical correction

Ew w0 855 w5 1130 wabc
wave a 1130 1000 delta 130
wave b 1000 1080 delta 80
wave c 1080 ?950 delta 130
- look like 950 is the bottom for this ew

mini ew
w0 950 w1 970 w2 955 w3?
w1 20
w2 15
- px hit 955 diddnt break and uturn

w3 30 tgt 985
- px hit high 970 now

w4 10 tgt 975
w5 20 tgt 995

Chart is flowing


SgYuan      ( Date: 22-Apr-2019 20:46) Posted:

wave a 113 100 delta 13
wave b 100 108 delta 8
wave c 108 ?95 delta 13
- look like 95 is the bottom for this wave

Just need to ensure it dont test 95 again

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Trader130
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26-Apr-2019 08:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If GS   bid   and get 2 casino license , this FA newbies will dump GS shares   again because they will they worry GS cannot afford to pay...Do yourself a favour , read more FA books how to do calculation .. Do not listen to forummer who lies to create fear ... but it is good for the old birds   if opportunity arises🤣 🤣 🤣

Trader130      ( Date: 26-Apr-2019 08:12) Posted:

Market always over- reacted.. .. normal ...I guess more than 90 %   FA newbies 

n3wbie      ( Date: 25-Apr-2019 23:50) Posted:

actually the $4.5b capex for the IR 2.0 will be progressive so market probably overreacted which resulted in the knee-jerk effect in share price. appears that share price is trying to consolidate and form a base around 955-965 before next movement. company continues to generate solid FCF.

with interest rates at < 1% in Japan, cost of debt is lower than cost of equity so it definitely makes more sense to leverage up to fund any projects (if they win it) and even if they incur substantial gearing to fund the expansion, it will eventually be able to par down debt with the FCF generated. depends if you are investing for the near, mid or long term but valuables are not demanding presently - 15x pe (ex cash PE is closer to 11-12x) 


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Trader130
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26-Apr-2019 08:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Market always over- reacted.. .. normal ...I guess more than 90 %   FA newbies 

n3wbie      ( Date: 25-Apr-2019 23:50) Posted:

actually the $4.5b capex for the IR 2.0 will be progressive so market probably overreacted which resulted in the knee-jerk effect in share price. appears that share price is trying to consolidate and form a base around 955-965 before next movement. company continues to generate solid FCF.

with interest rates at < 1% in Japan, cost of debt is lower than cost of equity so it definitely makes more sense to leverage up to fund any projects (if they win it) and even if they incur substantial gearing to fund the expansion, it will eventually be able to par down debt with the FCF generated. depends if you are investing for the near, mid or long term but valuables are not demanding presently - 15x pe (ex cash PE is closer to 11-12x) 

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kandinsky
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26-Apr-2019 01:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Momentum is building for an upswing in price. Can feel it coming soon...
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